No More Learning

Emerging market frontline states in Central Europe and the Balkans are unaccustomed to hosting large foreign populations and are poorer than their Western neighbors and can seek EU aid for their own humanitarian needs. They run chronic budget deficits but to bridge them sovereign local and external bond issuance has become routine. Governments in central and Eastern Europe may also be able to raise billions of euros through bonds for the Syrian, Iraqi and Northern and Sub-Saharan Africa influx. Global fund managers have maintained positive net emerging market debt allocations this year where the proceeds go for infrastructure and social spending, and dedicated refugee issues would be a natural extension. “Refugee bonds” could provide both commercial and “solidarity” returns to strengthen the European project, and redress the UN’s traditional donation gap after relying on government and private sector appeals.

Before the Syrian exodus reached the continent immediate neighbors Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon had absorbed millions and struggled to relieve the financial strain. Turkey’s military operations against Islamic State have added to the conflict’s cost; the government claims to have spent $ 7. 6 billion for more than two million refugees. Exports to Syria slid to $750 million in the first half after 2014’s $1. 8 billion full year total. It has largely absorbed the burden out of its own resources, as stock and bond outflows recently hit $5 billion with the announcement of new elections portending further political gridlock. The investment-grade sovereign rating is under review and the equity market, down 35 percent, is the worst performer in the MSCI core universe behind Greece. Local bond yields are above 10 percent on creeping double digit inflation, and the economic growth forecast was just slashed to less than 3 percent. Remittances from the wider Syrian and Iraqi diaspora will help, but the current account deficit remains 5 percent of GDP and the primary budget surplus is under pressure with refugee outlays.

Jordan has depended on a $2 billion IMF program and $5 billion in Gulf Cooperation Council assistance and the US has guaranteed a $1 billion sovereign bond. The last border crossing to Syria was recently closed and tourism has never recovered from the war spillover and earlier Arab Spring uprising. The small country has hosted a refugee Palestinian population for decades in camps administered by a special UN agency and called for a similar international effort for the fresh arrivals. Lebanon has long been mired in intrigues and violence next door and already has among the world’s highest debt loads at 140 percent of GDP. Despite a sovereign downgrade and meager 2 percent growth, a $2 billion external bond placement was successful with a stalwart buyer base of local banks and wealthy individuals abroad. For over year infighting between Hezbollah and other political parties has blocked government formation and trash collection, as refugees are barred from employment with the impasse. Iraq with its huge internally displaced population has announced a $6 billion bond plan to tackle the problem and gaping budget deficit, and speculative investors may be tempted by 10 percent-plus yields.

Greece across the sea from Turkey was the first Emerging Europe destination to feel the subsequent onslaught, and it has since moved to Hungary, Serbia and elsewhere as a gateway to desired resettlement in Germany and other richer EU members. Hungary’s Prime Minister Orban may be trying to outflank the opposition far-right Jobbik party with xenophobic rhetoric and fence construction, but he has also worked to assuage foreign investors holding one-third of local debt so he can pay for the limited reception under his tough line. Before the crisis the budget was on track to meet Brussels’ 3 percent of GDP deficit threshold, and successful bank Swiss franc mortgage conversion had softened the threat of additional punitive taxes. The stock market through end-August was the top MSCI Index gainer at 25 percent, and deflation was rolled back that could have raised the cost of public debt at 80 percent of GDP.

In Serbia in contrast the stock market has dropped over 20 percent on the MSCI Frontier Index and foreign investors remain wary of local and external debt, despite progress on reducing fiscal and current account imbalances under a resumed IMF facility. The benchmark 5 percent interest rate is Southeast Europe’s steepest as inflation increases with electricity price hikes. State enterprise divestiture promised for years is proceeding slowly, with many banks and “strategic” firms still off limits. Croatia has also received diverted refugee waves and may turn to the IMF soon with its own high-debt state-dominated economic drag. Leaders in both countries have clearly stated that with cash crunches they cannot handle the flow and asked the UN and EU for contingency funds.

Bilateral and multilateral guarantees could enhance refugee bonds from credit-strapped sovereigns, but Hungary, Turkey and others could issue them cleanly as a logical adaptation of existing instruments combining commercial return with public policy objectives. Such a targeted instrument, to be credible and reasonable cost, will need an independent tracking mechanism for the proceeds use, from basic essential services to possible job training, and that feature can draw on the UN refugee agency’s on-the-ground presence. As Europe currently scrambles to respond it can convene a global working group comprised of government and international organization representatives, investors and underwriters to design pilot issues for the continent and beyond. Emerging economies will no longer feel under such siege if they can mobilize distinct versions of their own financial market tools to meet the historic challenge.

Originally Published on bne IntelliNews 22 September 2015

Brazil’s Uphill Downgrade Damage Control
2015 September 17 by admin

Posted in: Latin America/Caribbean
Brazilian stocks and bonds remained in the performance cellar as S&P beat other ratings agencies to a sovereign junk assignment with a negative outlook as fiscal impasse added to a long list of economic policy and governance misery. In the days preceding the downgrade, Finance Minister Levy’s resignation was rumored as congressional opposition defeated spending and tax proposals to restore a primary budget surplus. The real hurtled toward the 4/dollar previous low during the early 2000s crisis, as big bank and corporate demotions including for Petrobras and BNDES were next in line. With $45 billion of dollar bonds outstanding, the former could become the largest US “fallen angel” after General Motors and may not feature in standard high-yield indices to force more selling. Brazil’s CEMBI spread at 700 basis points was the widest since 2009 as General Shopping signaled a likely restructuring. The Car Wash scandal claimed political allies of President Rousseff and her predecessor Lula’s chief of staff, amid talk that he could be directly implicated in the parallel Odebrecht construction contract bribery investigation where the CEO is already under arrest. In the US shareholder class action lawsuits are proceeding as the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act may invite Justice Department prosecution for money allegedly exchanged in hotel rooms. In Brasilia impeachment proceedings have not been ruled out, with the only precedent President Collor de Mello’s ousting over two decades ago for illegal home repair payments. He is caught up again in the current kickback suspicions, but so far President Rousseff has not been tied personally.

GDP shank 2 percent in Q2 and the recession is projected to last through next year, inflation is near double digits, and unemployment worsened to 7. 5 percent. The central bank benchmark rate is already punishing at over 14 percent as the 3-month loan default ratio approached 5 percent. Banks have also been spooked by likely re-imposition of a financial transactions levy as state retail giant Caixa postponed an IPO for its insurance unit. The current account deficit is stuck at 4. 5 percent of GDP, with FDI sputtering the past year, and a federal rescue may be needed for local governments like Rio Grande do Sul in default. Mass protests continue reflecting the President’s under 10 percent approval rating, and the gridlock has extended to central bank position appointments as a new economic policy chief is in limbo. Foreign banks like HSBC have exited, and local investment houses are increasingly scouting prospects outside in the sub-region, which may only be marginally better positioned.

Lapsed Mercosur partner Argentina has attracted attention heading into the October presidential election, with the August primary indicating a second-round Scioli-Macri run-off with the former the incumbent’s chosen successor and still the favorite. He has been boosted by pre-poll spending returning positive growth while widening the fiscal deficit. Privately-tallied inflation is over 25 percent and the parallel market peso premium is 60 percent, as formal devaluation will await the transition with $33 billion in reported international reserves. The trade surplus is down on flagging farm exports, and the holdout drama will extend into the next administration with split New York court rulings for the funds on possible access to local dollar-bond payments, and for the government denying the central bank is a sovereign alter ego in the long masquerade.

The BIS’ Private Debt Buildup Letdown
2015 September 17 by admin

Posted in: General Emerging Markets
The BIS repeated alarms over the accumulation of EM private and household debt since the 2008 crisis, as major investment houses noted that its banking and bond data base only comprehensively covered half a dozen countries and tried to construct their own broad estimates. JP Morgan described the surge as an “elephant in the room” with corporate bonds outstanding tripling from $1 trillion then and shadow banking bursting onto the scene in China and elsewhere. Credit/GDP rose 50 percent to 125 percent over the period and annual credit growth averaged 15 percent. Bank loans were near 100 percent of the figure, and businesses accounted for three-quarters of borrowing with Asia as the greatest regional concentration. Foreign currency activity is only one-tenth the $30 trillion private non-financial total, but governments may not be able to handle supply shocks despite decent balance sheets as they already grapple with dollar strength and capital outflows. BIS statistics are complete for developed markets but lacking in developing ones except for China, Russia, Korea, Mexico, Hungary and Poland. They track cross-border lines on a residence as opposed to nationality basis, missing large movements through offshore centers. Even without China overall debt/GDP reached 90 percent at the end of last year, and although quasi-sovereigns with at least official implicit support constitute half of external bonds their domestic share is unknown.

For 17 of 23 countries in the JP Morgan universe the measure jumped at least 15 percent from 2007. Brazil, China and Russia have raised the most through offshore subsidiaries and Hong Kong and Singapore as Asian financial centers led the pack with 35 percent increases. In the region Korea, Malaysia and Thailand spiked and 18 percent-plus gains were registered in Turkey, Chile and Poland. Declines or small expansions in contrast were the pattern in Hungary, South Africa, Argentina and India. Bank credit for the two dozen members was $25 trillion versus $3 trillion in securities as the former leapt over 25 percent the past eight years. The corporate change has been double the household one at 12 percent, with the latter outside Asia prominent just in Poland and Turkey. Financial bonds in circulation at $4. 5 trillion are one and a half times non-financial ones, indicating still heavy non-deposit reliance. Including banks in external liabilities boosts the number to 20 percent of GDP on average with every country except Argentina over 10 percent in the full roster.

Exchange rate de-pegging which could aggravate loads is now under the microscope after moves in China, Vietnam and Kazakhstan but big adjustments may have preceded Beijing’s initial 2 percent tweak as commodity exporters remain under pressure. Gulf dollar regimes should stay intact although local borrowing will pick up to avoid reserve depletion in currency defense. In Central Asia oil power Azerbaijan already devalued by one-third in February, and still runs a current account surplus with an ample sovereign wealth fund backstop. Egypt may lower the pound toward 8/dollar in its next move to reflect parallel market weakness and accommodate volatility heading into long-promised parliamentary elections. Morocco and Tunisia may follow suit with managed pegs against the dollar and euro with the continued buildup in security and political transition tensions.

Ukraine’s Reshaped Restructure Deal Buzz
2015 September 8 by admin

Posted in: Europe
Ukraine shares recovered slightly from a 15 percent MSCI frontier loss and external bonds rallied to 70 cents as the Franklin-Templeton led private creditors group split the difference after acrimonious proposal exchanges and agreed on a 20 percent principal reduction and 4-year repayment delay. The breakthrough came after Finance Minister Jaresko and fund manager Hasenstab met for breakfast, and the IMF went ahead with another program installment and indicated continued support in the event of commercial default. A July coupon was honored but the parliament passed a moratorium law that would allow for formal non-payment if negotiations remained at an impasse. The $18 billion in obligations will be swapped into nine new instruments yielding 7. 75 percent starting in 2019, with GDP warrants phased in should output exceed $125 billion. The same terms are expected for city of Kiev Eurobonds and other outstanding international loans, and the committee’s control of 75 percent of most issues should ensure acceptance. The distressed deal will trigger CDS payouts and the Fund forecasts a 70 percent debt/GDP ratio at end-decade with the relief and post-war economic rebound. However output fell 15 percent in Q2 with no end in sight to the Russian border fighting, and Moscow will not join the framework with its $3 billion bond in the throes of Yakunovych rule as it may be classified as senior status official debt in near-term formulations. A nominal cease-fire is still in place in the East, but Kiev refuses power decentralization in the absence of an election process there which would be difficult to conduct both logistically and financially with the widespread devastation and displacement. Thousands have fled the area to join the refugee march to neighboring countries and express no desire to return even with a durable peace until President Putin also leaves the scene.

Russian shares also slid into the negative column as the 2015 official GDP contraction was revised to 3 percent with the oil price slump and devaluation in China, the largest trading partner. Double-digit inflation may linger as the ruble resumed depreciation toward 70/dollar, and the central bank demurred on renewed intervention and benchmark rate changes. Sberbank under sanctions reported an NPL rise to 5 percent and lower profits as Probusinessbank, a top 50 institution, lost its license as other second-tier lenders embark on consolidation at regulators’ urge. Pension funds in turn have been exhorted to buy local currency corporate and government bonds and a state emergency fund separately aids with immediate rollover needs at home and abroad. Counter-sanctions have deepened with the destruction of Western food imports and removal of “unsanitary” consumer goods from store shelves. The President’s railway chief was reassigned and his spokesman was criticized for luxury dress as a Kremlin cutback campaign began to secure high popular approval.

Turkey’s share plunge was over 30 percent on leadership rejection in contrast as fresh November elections were called after two months of coalition efforts failed. The lira neared 3/dollar and the central bank provided foreign exchange relief on persistent capital and current account troubles. Fiscal balance could be endangered with campaign and military spending for anti-Islamic state and Kurdish rebel operations, and bank non-performing loans were up 25 percent in the latest period on hairy repayment and political prospects.

Venezuela’s Overripe Revolution Crossing
2015 September 8 by admin

Posted in: Latin America/Caribbean
Venezuelan President Maduro, after seizing more multinational company food warehouses and banning jailed opposition leaders from end-year parliamentary elections, ordered the closure of border trading with Colombia and the expulsion of immigrants as he branded the neighbors as “criminals and smugglers. ” The crackdown came as CDS spreads rocketed to 6000 basis points on $40/barrel oil and $1100/ounce gold dwindling reserves to $15 billion in August, around half this year’s external financing gap. Sovereign and state oil debt repayments are $6. 5 billion for the rest of 2015 and $11 billion next year, and the EMBI component has been the worst performer with a 20 percent loss as benchmark yields top 25 percent. The government has sold a US refinery and raised cash from Caribbean neighbors with early concessional aid redemption, but ruled out large state enterprise unwinding which could bring $50-$75 billion. PDVSA’s 2016 bond still trades above 80 cents implying low near-term default risk, but hyper-inflation and devaluation may spark immediate crisis. Official price data is not regularly published but triple-digit increases are reported in social media and the informal market exchange rate, previously based on Colombian border sources, is in the 650 range to the dollar as the acute shortages persist under the new commercial auction mechanism between banks and brokers.

On social issues the President has only built half of promised working class housing and the murder rate is now the highest in the region, as another foreign couple was killed in a headline robbery outside Caracas. After selective sanctions were imposed by Washington for anti-democratic behavior he began blaming outsiders for economic collapse and extended the strategy to Bogota in a strategy foreshadowed by his predecessor Chavez, who supported the rebel FARC and applied his own import ban during a diplomatic feud. According to opinion surveys, opposition parties are ahead for the December polls and even allies Bolivia and Ecuador acknowledge that outcome may be recognized as the tripartite South American Community strives to maintain viability as a rival hemispheric bloc. Ecuador’s President Correa faces natural disasters from volcanic eruption and El Nino at the same time China’s woes have drained the loan spigot. Demonstrators in Guayaquil jeered tax proposals to fund public spending equal to almost half of GDP. Foreign reserves are just $4. 5 billion and external bonds are now prohibitive at a cost over 10 percent, so a framework has been introduced for alternative electronic money to ease the dollar regime. He has accused labor, business, indigenous and journalist groups of coup plotting and may try again to change the constitution to permit unlimited terms.

Colombian stocks were down 45 percent on the MSCI Index at Latin America’s bottom with the Caracas confrontation added to commodity export and peace process woes. Pacific Rubiales also listed in Canada has run into debt repayment trouble with the peso off 35 percent against the dollar the past year. The current account deficit is 6 percent of GDP, and the central bank has been on hold on projected 3 percent growth mainly from domestic demand including a $50 billion multi-year infrastructure program. After three years of negotiation a guerilla attack killing a dozen soldiers may have indefinitely scuttled resolution of outstanding “war crimes” issues, as President Santos’ 30 percent public approval also defies reconciliation.

South Africa’s Unreserved Rescue Criticism
2015 September 1 by admin

Posted in: Africa
South Africa’s Reserve Bank refused to step in as the rand tumbled to 14/dollar and the MSCI stock market gauge shed 15 percent, as governor Kganyago would only consider intervening to provide emergency liquidity in light of the aborted defense 15 years ago that wiped out holdings. Unlike other big developing economies he pointed out that only one-tenth of government debt was in hard currency and few corporates tapped external markets. The benchmark 25 basis point rate rise in July had not reversed downward pressure even before China’s devaluation and equity crash reverberated, and the terms of trade are set to turn more negative with commodity export punishment and keep the current account deficit at 4. 5 percent of GDP. Electricity price hikes hoisted inflation above target but should settle in the second half although daily shortages linger to slash mining output as industry wage talks again foundered. With gold in a slump most producers are not profitable and workers continue to press for better salaries and living conditions in light of past often violent confrontations with management. Multilateral lenders have been pulled into the conflict with families’ lawsuit against the World Bank’s IFC arm, with a small stake in miner Lonrho, for alleged negligence in allowing the Marikana shootings by police. Growth may be only 1-2 percent this year as officials try to meet the 3 percent of GDP budget deficit pledge to avoid sovereign rating downgrade. They have also suffered sharp public relations blows as former president Deklerk, the last under apartheid who shared the Nobel peace prize with Nelson Mandela, has lambasted political and economic stagnation in global media outlets and counterparts in next-door Zimbabwe without its own currency expressed doubts about future rand reliance.

Nigeria’s MSCI frontier measure was off 25 percent as the central bank chief there refused devaluation as the parallel rate crumbled toward 250/dollar despite stable international reserves at $30 billion for five months’ imports. Bank and foreign goods restrictions have been imposed to conserve dollars and phone giant MTN had to suspend bond repayment without access. Growth has fallen to 2. 5 percent with oil under $50/barrel, and federal government revenue decline persists in the absence of an Economy Minister and as states request bailouts to cover salaries and debt rollovers. A new national petroleum company boss was appointed with previous experience at Exxon but promised reorganization will take months as billions of dollars may be missing from the coffers and fuel subsidy adjustments have been ruled out for now by President Buhari. The behemoth may be split into separate operating and regulatory units and a comprehensive independent audit may again be undertaken after one was commissioned to look into “leakages” cited by former central bank honcho Sanusi.

African currencies and securities were not spared the Chinese conflagration: Ghana and Zambia external bond yields spiked to 10 percent, Kenya’s shilling dropped to 100/dollar, and stock markets were down 30 percent through August. Mauritius’ MSCI reading dipped 10 percent as it was buffeted as well by India’s reversal with its offshore hub relationship amid continued bilateral tax complaints.

Cuba’s Hoisted Flag Flaps
2015 September 1 by admin

Posted in: Latin America/Caribbean
Havana and Washington reopened their embassies in solemn ceremonies attended by veterans of the decades ago break in diplomatic relations, as US banking and telecom firms received permission to service the island. Under looser rules 80,000 Americans not of Cuban descent visited through July, helping to support estimated 4 percent GDP growth. Agricultural exporters continue to press for the removal of industry and broad trade sanctions to boost last year’s $300 million in exports, but have come to realize they must also extend credit as officials repay old debt to Mexico, Russia and Japan. Secondary trading of outstanding Cuban obligations has picked up but the market remains illiquid and is hobbled by the bar on US participation. As a proxy investors have bought the closed-end Herzfeld Caribbean Fund, where the equity portfolio has begun to target technology in light of the Castro government’s commitment to broadband in half of homes by end-decade. The next Communist party congress early in 2016 is expected to unveil additional small-scale private sector reforms and could introduce a formal timetable for currency unification. European and Latin American companies with existing ties have revealed modest expansion plans as they continue to contend with overweening state partnership demands and domestic political and economic swings. Spanish banks and firms enjoying a 3 percent GDP recovery doubt that any major or insurgent party will win convincingly in upcoming elections, as local currency earnings in the region are hammered by slumping commodities and domestic demand and capital outflows.

In nearby Central America in contrast bond sentiment soured with massive anti-corruption protests calling for executive branch purges in Guatemala and Honduras. The former holds presidential elections the first week of September after the bribery arrests of the Vice President, central bank head and social security system administrator following a UN panel investigation. The outgoing incumbent Perez Molina could not field a party successor under scandal and the front-runner has been tainted by the monetary authority’s alleged misbehavior. Before the poll growth and inflation were both 3 percent with mining and financial services up double-digits, as the fiscal deficit rose to around 2. 5 percent of GDP to be financed by domestic borrowing. Remittances were up almost 10 percent on US construction rebound, as lower oil import costs reduced the trade gap.

Honduran President Hernandez is a year into his term and the Supreme Court recently ruled that he could seek a consecutive mandate, as the National Party in power was implicated in a big health service fraud. He agreed to “dialogue” with demonstrators but refused to resign or convene an independent inquiry. The IMF program of budget restraint may now be complicated by the standoff as higher sales taxes push inflation to 5 percent. The building sector has weakened but remittances jumped 15 percent in the latest quarter to shrink the current account deficit to 6. 5 percent of output. The booming dollar has lifted consumer spending power at a time both countries may have to wait for a new Obama administration anti-poverty initiative to gain traction pending a truce between leaders and increasingly vocal civil action flag bearers.

Europe’s Disturbed Deleverage Design
2015 August 27 by admin

Posted in: Europe
Central Europe stock markets searched for direction despite a regional safe haven switch following China’s devaluation, as the Vienna Forum hailed early year bank deleveraging and capital outflow moderation in its periodic public-private sector monitor. The publication reported that the average loan-deposit ratio remained 110 percent but annual credit growth was down to single digits on both demand and supply changes. The IIF’s latest survey of bank lending conditions showed Q2 improvement but the index is still stuck under 50. Household borrowing has retrenched for hard and local currency mortgages alike and corporations are working off previous debt overhangs amid tepid economic recovery with Eurozone expansion at just over 1 percent this year. Hungary’s 20-percent gain as the exception began to flag in July with undecided voters now greater than support for the main political parties, with Prime Minister Orban’s ruling Fidesz pulling in 38 percent, 10 points ahead of the right-wing anti-immigrant Jobbik. The refugee influx from Africa and the Middle East through the Balkans has become a pressing issue with authorities planning to build a border wall. GDP growth has slowed to 2. 5 percent and the central bank has signaled the end of interest rate easing in 10-15 basis point increments with the 1 percent bound approaching. June inflation was 0. 5 percent as deflation may be decisively banished and the 3 percent target may be hit by year-end. The currency is around 310/euro and local bond yields have crept up as the 2. 5 percent of GDP budget deficit aim may prove elusive with recent bank tax modifications. The current account surplus has held at 5 percent of output and the Prime Minister may be hedging export bets by cultivating ties with Moscow despite EU sanctions, including renewed energy cooperation.

Poland has suffered as the liquid currency proxy for the area as the opposition Law and Justice Party extends its lead for October parliamentary elections. Voter intent to punish the long-dominant Civic Platform was reinforced by former prime minister Tusk’s facilitation of a third Greek EU rescue deal in contrast with the rapid shock therapy Warsaw endured in the 1990s, as the legislative challengers claim the nationalist mantle. Incumbents may try to regain popularity with a mandatory plan for Swiss franc mortgage conversion in contrast with the previous voluntary stance, but such steps are likely too late to reverse the fall poll outcome. Investors worry about overspending and further state takeover of private pensions, and a more confrontational foreign policy toward Brussels and NATO as Ukraine teeters next door. Romania has been up on the MSCI Frontier index as another outlier, but an anti-corruption crusade including the indictment of former prime ministers seems to have pre-empted tax reforms demanded by the IMF to resume a backstop program. The chief prosecutor, a former basketball star, has notched 1000 convictions redeeming the cleanup pledges of ethnic German President Iohannis. Although the Greek crisis has not infected local subsidiaries, private sector credit is flat with banks’ NPL ratio at 15 percent. The currency is steady at 4. 4/euro but previous over-weights have been purged as a skeptical crusade again gathers pace.

Iran’s Winding After Punishment Windfall
2015 August 27 by admin

Posted in: MENA
The main Tehran stock exchange index was up 5 percent in the latest quarter with a marginally stronger currency as international businesses and organizations began to probe post-sanctions asset and economic relief, despite the close anti-nuclear weapons treaty vote expected in the US Congress. The World Bank in a report predicted an immediate “windfall” equivalent to 3 percent of GDP with banking, insurance and trade and investment opening as over $15 billion in lost oil exports the past two years is recovered. It presumes an output return to one million barrels/day will lower global oil prices by ten dollar in 2016. Commerce will resume most with Asian and Middle Eastern partners as well as the UK and recession will definitively end as one-third of $100 billion in frozen accounts is released in the first phase. FDI could double to $3 billion from the current level chiefly in the hydrocarbons sector, as officials put end-decade needs at $150 billion to sustain capacity. India, China and Russia should lead the company pack but American and European multinationals could join and move into autos, manufacturing and pharmaceuticals as well, the Bank believes. The economy’s size is the same as in 2009 and unemployment is 15 percent, but inflation has halved to 15 percent. Medium-term growth should reach 5 percent and car production could recapture pre-sanctions strength. European drug sales at $2. 5 billion in 2012 could restart but the 1 million new jobs required annually to absorb demand are unlikely. Real exchange rate appreciation could hurt agriculture and industry and encourage services shift. Non-oil exports have been supported the past decade with government subsidies which can no longer be afforded for petrochemicals, plastics and feed in light of competing infrastructure, education and training imperatives. The Bank urges a break from the past pattern of sudden booms when consumption and showcase project spending were priorities, and governance and transparency transition to a well-managed sovereign wealth fund in contrast with recent practice.

The Energy Ministry is redrafting contracts to allow more royalty flexibility and for possible equity stakes in local companies, but Chinese and Indian state producers may be the first to expand relations, especially with Western counterparts’ difficulties in securing trade finance from banks under strict money-laundering and anti-terror rules where violations have brought multi-billion dollar fines. Standard Chartered still has a local license, but was recently hit with a $1 billion penalty and is struggling to rebuild its emerging market franchise and top management. Russian institutions not subject to the same due diligence to avoid Revolutionary Guard ties often disguised through holding groups may also readily engage and London investment house Renaissance Capital with Moscow owners has touted early stock market ideas.

Listed banks had total net income of almost $2 billion but reported their toughest year in recent history during July’s annual meetings period. High interest rates with the benchmark at 20 percent and stiff competition for creditworthy customers have hurt the bottom line as the central bank cracks down on non-banking activities as an alternative outlet. However the industry could soon diversify again internationally and the biggest banks all paid dividends as the Vienna one is added.

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China’s Citadel Storm Retreat
2015 August 17 by admin

Posted in: Asia
Chinese stocks were down 15 percent in July, including a one-day drop the last week for half the loss, with US hedge funds caught in the pervasive trading bans and suspected misconduct controversies as the “national team” led by margin lender Securities Finance Corp marshaled hundreds of billions of dollars in market support. Chicago-based Citadel had an account seized for “irregularities” and Connecticut’s Bridgewater Associates reassessed its safe haven estimation of mainland exposure in light of “bursting real estate and equity bubbles” and the growth drag from debt and economic restructuring. Financial services, now reeling with the exchange collapse, had contributed almost one-fifth of first half GDP expansion stretched to meet the 7 percent target with declining trade and car sales and the PMI around 50. The government will pump RMB 1 trillion through policy banks for new airport and sanitation projects as it admitted to “flagging” traditional economic engines with June’s 1 percent power consumption increase the smallest in decades.

Banks reported an NPL rise with the ratio just above 1 percent as they scrambled to quantify indirect stock market exposure through wealth management products and collateralized credit. According to Moody’s lending jumped 10 percent through June to almost 150 percent of GDP to widen the gap with shadow banking’s 35 percent share. The central bank injected $50 billion into the Development, Export-Import and Agricultural institutions, as the Postal Savings behemoth with 500 million customers and $1 trillion in assets prepares for an eventual IPO.
State-run units have reportedly boosted contingent liabilities through offshore letter of credit activity as well, with bond guarantees nearing $10 billion in the last year and a half, Bloomberg calculates. On-line platforms have also come under scrutiny in the retail investor margin craze and may be subject to initial capital and liquidity as well as security rules. Wealth management product yields are at 4 percent on a shift to fixed-income components and assets are over RMB 15 trillion by official and private tallies. As buy and hold structures they are not affected by the short-selling suspension but their lack of disclosure may understate the stock-holding population typically put at less than 10 percent to experience income effects from the crash.

Foreign investors with a $75 billion quota have turned cautious as well in Hong Kong with investigations there and evisceration of the Shanghai connect program with core listings off-limits or heavily manipulated. Chinese company profits were off across the board in the first half with mining and energy producers taking a 50 percent hit. Manufacturing was up 10 percent, but producer prices continue to show 5 percent deflation. Home values are down in most cities, and property developers have rushed to sell onshore bonds with temporary appetite to the tune of $10 billion in the second quarter. Local governments are trying to complete RMB 2 trillion in debt swaps at the same time as capital outflows reached almost half a trillion dollars in the last year, with one-quarter thought to be “hot money. ” The movement may complicate currency direction post-devaluation and the IMF indicated the freely usable threshold may bar immediate SDR inclusion although it could be granted with a delay.

Saudi Arabia’s Granular Gearing Grist
2015 August 17 by admin

Posted in: MENA
Saudi stocks which barely budged on foreign access permission struggled to stay positive on looming competition from domestic bond issuance resumed after a decade hiatus to cover budget spending based on original $100/barrel oil break-even value. The monetary authority will raise $25 billion by year-end though local bank placements and has already drawn down $75 billion in reserves which now stand at $675 billion to bridge this year’s estimated $125 billion deficit. GDP growth will dip below 3 percent, which may endanger the goal of reducing 5 percent unemployment and trigger another wave of guest worker expulsions as the new royal leadership seeks its footing. Public debt is negligible at 1. 5 percent of GDP but a crisis occurred in the 1990s after the ratio hit 100 percent. The government has vowed to stagger maturities and create a yield curve as it plans to invite overseas buyers and ratings agencies to participate in market development. State utility companies have tapped the external sukuk space and experts predict the sovereign will soon follow given the limited individual and institutional investor base at home. UAE bonds have been well-received and recently rallied on fuel subsidy elimination and the prospects for Iran’s commercial re-integration. Energy deregulation will save almost $4 billion and solidifies the investment-grade rating, Moody’s asserts. Despite four years of sanctions the Emirates is the number two trading partner after China as a banking, air and free-zone hub. Half a million Iranians may live in Dubai and have been active in property speculation and commodity dealing in particular.

In the region Tunisia is preparing to float official and corporate sharia-compliant instruments with Islamic Development Bank help with banks and leasing firms up first after rules are finalized. Its MSCI stock market performance was off 5 percent through July after the Sousse beach resort attack killing forty visitors, as tourism contributing 7 percent of GDP as the main employer continues to nosedive. The ruling coalition with sweeping parliamentary control passed stiffer security laws posting patrols at hotels and sites with funding assistance from the US and Europe as the protectionist legacy of the Ben Ali era remains in place. According to the World Bank 60 percent of the economy faces entry barriers and phone costs are twenty times the regional average due to controls. 40 percent of jobs are informal in response to administrative and tax burdens often a legacy of the French colonial period. State banks in particular could be cleaned up with partial privatization but the process has historically been slow and lagged neighbors.

Egypt lost 10 percent on the MSCI core index despite record Suez Canal earnings the past year at $5. 5 billion and its recent expansion as part of a larger industrial zone project championed by President al-Sisi. Ships will now be able to cross in both directions and waits should fall from ten to three hours. The venture was financed from $8. 5 billion in retail investment certificates which also qualified holders for preferential loans as private sector credit jumped 15 percent on an annual basis. However double-digit inflation persists and the exchange rate was again tweaked to 7. 6/dollar as the Canal flow was diverted by sharper currents. Saudi Arabia’s Granular Gearing Grist

Saudi stocks which barely budged on foreign access permission struggled to stay positive on looming competition from domestic bond issuance resumed after a decade hiatus to cover budget spending based on original $100/barrel oil break-even value. The monetary authority will raise $25 billion by year-end though local bank placements and has already drawn down $75 billion in reserves which now stand at $675 billion to bridge this year’s estimated $125 billion deficit. GDP growth will dip below 3 percent, which may endanger the goal of reducing 5 percent unemployment and trigger another wave of guest worker expulsions as the new royal leadership seeks its footing. Public debt is negligible at 1. 5 percent of GDP but a crisis occurred in the 1990s after the ratio hit 100 percent. The government has vowed to stagger maturities and create a yield curve as it plans to invite overseas buyers and ratings agencies to participate in market development. State utility companies have tapped the external sukuk space and experts predict the sovereign will soon follow given the limited individual and institutional investor base at home. UAE bonds have been well-received and recently rallied on fuel subsidy elimination and the prospects for Iran’s commercial re-integration. Energy deregulation will save almost $4 billion and solidifies the investment-grade rating, Moody’s asserts. Despite four years of sanctions the Emirates is the number two trading partner after China as a banking, air and free-zone hub. Half a million Iranians may live in Dubai and have been active in property speculation and commodity dealing in particular.

In the region Tunisia is preparing to float official and corporate sharia-compliant instruments with Islamic Development Bank help with banks and leasing firms up first after rules are finalized. Its MSCI stock market performance was off 5 percent through July after the Sousse beach resort attack killing forty visitors, as tourism contributing 7 percent of GDP as the main employer continues to nosedive. The ruling coalition with sweeping parliamentary control passed stiffer security laws posting patrols at hotels and sites with funding assistance from the US and Europe as the protectionist legacy of the Ben Ali era remains in place. According to the World Bank 60 percent of the economy faces entry barriers and phone costs are twenty times the regional average due to controls. 40 percent of jobs are informal in response to administrative and tax burdens often a legacy of the French colonial period. State banks in particular could be cleaned up with partial privatization but the process has historically been slow and lagged neighbors.

Egypt lost 10 percent on the MSCI core index despite record Suez Canal earnings the past year at $5. 5 billion and its recent expansion as part of a larger industrial zone project championed by President al-Sisi. Ships will now be able to cross in both directions and waits should fall from ten to three hours. The venture was financed from $8. 5 billion in retail investment certificates which also qualified holders for preferential loans as private sector credit jumped 15 percent on an annual basis. However double-digit inflation persists and the exchange rate was again tweaked to 7. 6/dollar as the Canal flow was diverted by sharper currents.

Corporate Defaults’ Devilish Plot
2015 August 12 by admin

Posted in: General Emerging Markets
The mid-year high-yield CEMBI corporate default rate at 2. 5 percent was on track for 2015’s 5 percent projection, with 20 “fallen angels” already with the rating upgrade/downgrade ratio at 0. 3 according to index sponsor JP Morgan. All regions were hit with Brazil’s half dozen the most names while Ukraine’s issuers have not yet felt the brunt of the pending sovereign restructuring. Distressed exchanges have so far outnumbered bankruptcies for higher recovery rates at almost 50 versus the historical 35 percent. Almost 15 percent of the universe currently trades at the problem 70 cents/dollar handle with Venezuela’s $35 billion in PDVSA bonds 95 percent of the total. Outside energy, metals and mining is the riskiest sector and through July rating downgrades at over 250 were almost triple upgrades. Most of the falls from investment-grade to junk were in Latin America but China and Russia were also caught in the trend, while Mexico and Korea had net improvement. By volume real estate has been most default-prone led by Kaisa’s collapse and failed merger attempt, while financials have traditionally dominated since 2010. Just prior to the episode the rating has been in the lowest “B” category, and since the 2008 crisis 20 countries have experienced non-payment.

The greatest corporate pressure may now be on Brazil with likely sovereign demotion to speculative grade in 2016 on worsening recession and public debt and the effects of the Petrobras and related state corruption scandals. An estimated $15 billion in forced selling from active and passive investors could result, about 10 percent of prime-quality bonds. All three major raters have assigned negative outlooks and banks and companies would be expected to follow Petrobras into the high-yield space where only a few feature in US “crossover” indices. Bank of America/Merrill Lynch in anticipation will recast its benchmark with a no-emerging market issuer option, which would leave the field to dedicated investors now underweight with the cascade of leverage and investigation woes. Removal from the CEMBI investment-grade would benefit other countries with Korea and the UAE increasing their top portions to a combined 15 percent.

China’s equity wipeout and intervention has transferred the local funding burden back to debt, with shadow banking as a main bond route down to one-third of intermediary activity. The PMI has reverted to 50 and foreign investors are now the target of high-frequency and short-selling probes to quash broad allocation appetite. Real estate monthly sales are still slack in second-tier cities and capital outflows persist with -50 billion international bank lending in Q1 according to BIS figures. Hong Kong is going ahead with long planned Chinese railway and asset management company IPOs due for lackluster reception as Russian banks and companies also looking there to escape Western sanctions may find the channel blocked. At home the central bank dropped interest rates another 50 basis points but indicated future moves would be minimal with the stronger ruble and double-digit inflation. The US Treasury stiffened boycotts and freezes on Ukrainian firms and individuals tied to the former regime as the next IMF $1. 7 billion chunk was received and bondholders conceded the prospect of a small haircut for the first time in talks. However public confidence in the government has also been scalped, with Prime Minister Yatseniuk’s approval in single digits.

Addis Ababa’s Development Declaration Decathlon
2015 August 12 by admin

Posted in: IFIs
The third UN Financing for Development forum in Ethiopia’s capital produced a 40-page “outcome document” for consideration in the September General Assembly covering private capital themes, as the dense prose masked a more accepting but still skeptical tone 15 years after the “multi-stakeholder consultative process” was launched. Official aid and redefinition of the original Millennium anti-poverty goals with a 2015 deadline remained a core focus, and the environment was also in the spotlight in the run-up to the Paris carbon emission treaty conference at year-end. It calculated a $1 trillion developing country infrastructure funding gap and called for a global forum to coordinate public sector and commercial efforts which would include new players like China’s AIIB and the African Development Bank’s “50” fund. Domestic tax mobilization was a major thrust with an appeal for information-sharing between revenue authorities, including in offshore centers, and crackdowns on money laundering and illicit outflows. On financial regulation the participants urged risk-based approaches across the spectrum from microcredit to international banking, and steps toward universal customer access and literacy. They noted remittance charges remain steep and should fall to no more than 5 percent by 2030.

On domestic capital markets long-term bonds and insurance are lacking and the declaration committed to stronger supervision and clearing and settlement. Regional markets are an option to obtain scale, and at the opposite extreme poorer countries have yet to establish securities activity. Foreign portfolio investors have taken large shares in local debt markets over the past decade, and cross-border cooperation can help manage volatility. Pension and sovereign wealth funds in both advanced and emerging economies can increase infrastructure investment so that the clean energy annual $100 billion tab by 2020 is met. Trade finance is often unavailable and the WTO and its members should expand guarantee, factoring and small business programs.

Debt sustainability remains an issue as the last candidates for HIPC relief are approved by bilateral and multilateral lenders. A central registry on sovereign restructurings is overdue and the UNCTAD principles on responsible treatment have not been widely honored. The Paris Club has launched a dialogue with private creditors, and the IMF and UN are both exploring new burden-sharing formulas, but the signatories are “concerned” over bond holdouts. The pari passu and collective auction clause changes recently adopted in prospectus language are helpful but developing country borrowers may require facilities for international legal assistance to redress the capacity and resource imbalances in negotiations. Special provisions should also be triggered in the event of natural disasters, including disease outbreaks as in West Africa, and distress could be worked out in debt for health swaps and similar mechanisms that were popular in previous crises.

IMF governance reform remains a priority despite the refusal of the US Congress to pass 2010 quota reallocation proposals, and emerging market “voice” is also under-represented at the Basel Committee and as counterpoint to the main global rating agencies. The standard-setters should focus attention on ways to hedge and avoid economic damage associated with commodity price swings. Shadow banking may pose systemic risks in an unmonitored chain of credit and securities transactions, and upcoming UN sessions should try to illuminate data and knowledge gaps, the Addis Ababa roundup adds.

Mexico’s Repeated Knockout Rounds
2015 August 4 by admin

Posted in: Latin America/Caribbean
Mexican stocks further slid and the peso was off almost 20 percent the past twelve months approaching 16/dollar, as the first private hydrocarbon company bidding round was a disappointment with only two out of fifteen fields soliciting interest. Eight auctions were spurned altogether and participation was half the demand predicted by officials even as breakeven prices for the deposits were $20-25/barrel. Pemex stayed away as it tries to conserve cash after a $6. 5 billion Q1 loss, and its one-third budget contribution will be absorbed by $8. 5 billion in spending cuts winning plaudits from bondholders but anger from voters who reduced the ruling PRI take in state elections to 29 percent and backed an independent as governor. Construction and manufacturing weakness linger for 2 percent GDP growth, and 3 percent inflation is within the central bank target but the central bank could hike the benchmark rate to 3. 5 percent by year-end in mirroring US Federal Reserve direction. The teachers union has fought back against reforms and law and order missteps were reinforced with the jailbreak of a notorious drug lord for a second time. Currency short positions are at a record in weekly commodity futures data as daily local spot and forward volume average $10 billion at the same level as Brazil.

There Petrobras will loosen rules for the pre-salt fields to invite foreign and private investment as it scaled back its 5-year capital outlay plan by one-third to $130 billion with the “laundry” investigation now implicating the CEO of construction giant Odebrecht as influence peddling suspicion also reaches former President Lula. Prosecutors charge that the bribery balance sheet write-down to date is too small as overseas pension funds pursue class action suits in US courts. President Rousseff’s approval rating is in single digits and parties may withdraw coalition support and consider impeachment if allegations relate to her decade-long Petrobras leadership. She visited Washington and New York with her economic team as fiscal adjustment was downgraded to the likelihood of no primary surplus with 1. 5 percent output contraction this year. Gross public debt may head to 70 percent of GDP as ratings agencies contemplate sovereign demotion to junk. Corporate downgrades led the emerging market pack as Fitch warned the country was a main source of global contagion. Monetary policy has also failed to quell 9 percent inflation despite the 14 percent Selic rate as the real moves to 3. 5/dollar with new swap intervention limits.

Consumption and fixed investment have followed commodity exports into the tank as unemployment and bad retail loans worsen. State savings giant Caixa is in talks to sell part of an estimated $7. 5 billion distressed portfolio to foreign funds including JP Morgan after its partnership with Gavea, founded by a former central bank head, was rearranged. Finance Minister Levy had a heart scare before travel abroad sparking speculation about a replacement as a $70 billion medium term infrastructure program was unveiled to minimal response in advance of the 2016 Olympics. FDI may be only half last year’s at $50 billion despite incentives for transport engagement. Electricity remains a protected sector even as the securities regulator fined Electrobras for flagrant corporate governance lapses. According to their professional association debt and equity activity is at a 5-year low as credit boom and scandal shocks suffuse the network.

The Next President’s Development Blueprint Blues
2015 August 4 by admin

Posted in: General Emerging Markets
The Center for Global Development released a lengthy briefing book of proposals after a year-long effort to shape the agenda for the White House in 2016, as it decried a “narrow” aid focus not harnessing private capital and remittance flows in the face of competing bilateral and multilateral providers from the developing world itself. The group lamented that the US for the first time in decades will not be a member of a global institution, the $100 billion AIIB founded by China, in part reflecting emerging market frustration at IMF quota reform failure. Assistance is now dwarfed by not just overseas direct and portfolio investment but government revenue in all but the poorest countries, and although emergency and humanitarian relief needs continue collective action on climate, agriculture, health and other areas remains an unmet challenge. The report urges an “ambitious” prosperity and security strategy that can revamp policies with new political leadership without billions of dollars in fresh funding. It believes Congress and the business community can back the direction as the output will be circulated among the numerous presidential campaigns.

The case for a unified Development Finance Corporation was repeated to combine OPIC with other agencies and use the range of debt and equity powers. The Export-Import Bank was left out of the structure as its charter was not renewed due to Republican lawmaker opposition. On immigration a guest worker agreement could be readily struck with Mexico and broader global skills partnerships could be forged. On trade AGOA extension and modification should be a priority, and as the Trans-Pacific and Atlantic accords enter final negotiations WTO efforts can be revived although the Doha Round must finally be “buried. ” On data transparency initiatives such as in extractive industry could be expanded and supplemented, with tax information to be exchanged beyond the current OECD framework and beneficial owners unmasked particularly in offshore havens. Company natural resource payments could also be better flagged under provisions of the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act pending a formal SEC disclosure ruling, and the State Department and other aid givers have yet to furnish statistics for an integrated Dashboard website.

On tropical forests, the model could be strengthened for the 2020 private sector alliance of commodities firms to limit damage and compensate preservation. The 2014 Power Africa program could benefit from enabling legislation and clearer authority including the use of traditional fossil fuels where renewables are too cumbersome to develop. USAID needs a “top to bottom” review in the incoming administration with its $12 billion spread among 125 countries, but only 10 getting half the budget. Performance metrics are lacking with a ranking in the bottom half of worldwide donors. National security importance should be considered but congressional mandates can be eliminated and presidential overarching visions should be checked against existing program outreach. The Millennium Challenge Corporation after a decade of operation could still improve cost-benefit analysis, criteria flexibility and grant results and it has tended to emphasize infrastructure over other high-impact purposes. The paradigm generally should shift to paying for outcomes and the multilateral component of appropriations should revert to the 20 percent range to achieve a multiplier effect and bridge the partisan divide, the collection concludes.

The BRICS Bank Utilitarian Undertaking
2015 July 28 by admin

Posted in: General Emerging Markets
The New Development Bank with $50 billion in initial BRICS capital held its first organizational meeting in Uta, Russia with the former head of Indian lender ICICI appointed president. He will seek local and external credit ratings for borrowing and consider requests from oil giant Rosneft and other companies under Western sanctions. Banks could also apply as consolidation intensifies among the 750 competitors remaining since a central bank regulatory crackdown. The mid-market has been active in particular as industry assets fell 7 percent in the first half and retail NPLs hit 7. 5 percent. State leader VTB, which is still in the process of absorbing Bank of Moscow, estimates half the field could disappear by end-decade. Along with Sberbank it got $17 billion in government recapitalization to withstand the commodities and embargo crunch, as the benchmark interest rate remains steep at 11. 5 percent. Capital flight was again $20 billion in Q2, just above the current account surplus as the ruble continues to strengthen alongside $7. 5 billion in dollar buying since May. President Putin declared that fluctuations were now “acceptable” after last year’s plunge as the free-floating exchange rate goal is indefinitely sidelined.

Russia and Brazil among the group are in recession and South Africa is close, as the IMF downgraded the emerging economy growth forecast to 4 percent. EPFR’s equity fund data tell another grim story of $21 billion in first half outflows across all regions led by Asia’s $8 billion. The dedicated BRICS strategy was off $1 billion mirroring other acronym approaches, and the frontier class also lost $850 million. By country China and greater China exit was $19 billion even as weekly numbers turned positive before the mainland crash and trading suspension. India was the runaway inflow destination at $9. 5 billion, followed far behind by Russia’s $425 million. Brazil and Mexico each slipped $1 billion and Korea was another spurned Asian market (-$3. 5 billion). Africa’s appeal also ebbed (-$180 million) as the developed world dominated the positive category with Europe and Japan together receiving over $100 billion. By sector energy regained popularity and consumer goods were shunned, while financials took in a modest $500 million. Bond funds overall led by the US were allocated $100 billion, but emerging market local currency was negative as hard currency gained slightly.

The fixed-income funk was also evident in the Islamic sukuk space, where issuance through July was $30 billion less than the $67 billion in 2014, mainly due to Malaysia’s choice to use other instruments for liquidity management. According to S&P the Islamic Development Bank may partially fill the void, but this year’s total will drop 40 percent. Outside Malaysia first half activity softened 10 percent as Gulf States reconsidered programs in light of lower petroleum revenue. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are likely to refrain the rest of the year as Oman and Bahrain tap the market. Indonesia and Hong Kong returned and a number of African candidates, including Egypt, Tunisia, Kenya and Nigeria are in line. The Basel III liquidity ratio will spur medium term growth for top-tier sharia-compliant assets, the agency believes, even as standard definitions and structures are not yet solid.

Kazakhstan’s Carefree Corridor Talk
2015 July 28 by admin

Posted in: Asia
Kazakhstan issued EMEA’s biggest sovereign bond this year as a dual tranche $4 billion instrument was oversubscribed at 5-6 percent yields and US buyers diversified the investor base. The return did not help equities down double-digits on the MSCI Frontier Index and came as the exchange rate corridor was nudged from 188 to 198/dollar despite consensus devaluation projection to 220-230 in line with Russian ruble adjustment throughout the region. International reserves in two funds are almost $100 billion, but the central bank has spent about one-fifth that amount the past year supporting the peg. The IMF in its latest Article IV report urged flexibility as the current account deficit will again come in at 2 percent of GDP on 1 percent economic growth. Oil prices have not firmed and the Kashagan field will not match original size as project ownership and royalties remain fluid. President Nazarbaev hinted at succession and business reforms on winning re-election, but has been a steadfast member of Moscow’s Eurasian Economic Union recently joined by next-door Kyrgyzstan.

Sovereign gross placement has been only $50 billion through mid-year with Poland, Romania and Turkey in the same geographic bucket. External corporate activity has also flagged at $170 billion over the period with almost no Europe supply, according to JP Morgan figures. Among the CIS group, Georgia spreads widened while Belarus and Ukraine risks declined on commercial restructuring deals in the works. On the latter Finance Minister Jaresko began direct negotiations with the Frankin Templeton-led creditor committee in Washington as parliament passed banking, energy and anti-corruption measures to get the next $1. 7 billion IMF installment. However the opposition party Fatherland founded by jailed democracy campaigner Tymoshenko has backed populist proposals including dollar loan repayments at the old pegged currency value to upset the mix. Although reserves are back to $10 billion with Western assistance and a Chinese swap line, the central bank continues to intervene regularly in the spot market and to enforce capital controls within capacity limits. A delegation to a US Chamber of Commerce conference in July was angered by another large EU rescue for Greece in exchange for long-promised fiscal changes, as they pointed out Kiev’s actions in a short time under a civil war program a fraction of Athens’ scale. Representatives added that private bondholders resist any haircut unlike in the Greek case where an unprecedented 75 percent reduction was accepted.

With the latest lifeline Greek banks will continue to struggle even with resumed ECB liquidity injections, and their four subsidiaries in Bulgaria with a 20 percent market share could require near-term infusions as a new central bank governor was approved. The incumbent resigned over handling of the BCB crisis last year which was initially blamed on a text message conspiracy. Serbia has avoided such fallout as post-flooding mining output revives with the benchmark interest rate steady at 6 percent under its IMF arrangement. Turkish officials have concentrated more on the geopolitical ramifications as Mideast and African migrants pass through porous borders and Cyprus reunification talks are due to restart under fresh Northern leadership. Coalition attempts are now formally underway in Istanbul under a 45-day deadline before rescheduled elections as stubborn 8 percent inflation and a 5 percent of GDP current account gap defy joint management.

Iran’s Un-Bankable Post-Pariah Proposition
2015 July 24 by admin

Posted in: MENA
The Tehran Stock Exchange capped a month-long rally on heavy trading volume as the Vienna nuclear deal left the benchmark index essentially flat for the year, with major sanctions relaxation delayed until early 2016. The UN could then lift banking prohibitions including connection to the SWIFT global payments network, and Chinese and Indian institutions are positioned to be among the first to resume correspondent and local relationships and led delegations calling on business and government representatives in recent months. However their enthusiasm has been muted, as credit and capital markets despite nominal access remain subject to pervasive official control, and banks’ balance sheet hole may already exceed the USD 100 billion frozen in Iran’s international accounts.

President Rouhani convened a conference early this year to debate approaches for the huge bad loan ratio estimated at 20-25 percent of the total if normal accounting standards applied. Oversight and resolution gaps have been regularly cited in IMF reports, and the central bank lacks independence as it is just one voice on the Monetary and Credit Council setting policy. Economic growth was 2 percent in the latest quarter with inflation more than halved to 15 percent from 2014’s 40 percent. With relative currency stability, the difference between the formal and parallel exchange rates narrowed to average 30,000 rial/dollar, and unification is still a near-term goal. “Profit rates” for borrowers, to be followed by all 30 state and private institutions in the no-interest Islamic system, were recently reduced 2 percent to 20 percent, and reserve requirements fell to 13. 5 percent. The government-run giants include Melli, Industry and Mine, Agriculture, Sepah and specialized Housing and other units, while private competitors like Saderat and Pasargad often have official ties as part of wider family business conglomerates.