No More Learning

Hydrocarbons could also be an entry point, and reconstruction in Iraq and Syria could take off eventually as dedicated matchmaking hubs promote partnerships, as the guide recommends.

Impact assets that seek environment and social alongside financial returns are estimated at $115 billion, and diaspora communities, such as Somalis in Kenya, also mobilize capital for frontline state high-risk allocation. They can take stakes in startup operations like the 10000 Syrian-owned ones in Turkey which average ten employees and contribute $330 million to the economy, according to a recent census. However global investment houses tend to shy away with the small scale and difficult to measure metrics, although project specific humanitarian or development bonds, with a donor or government paying upon achieved outcomes, may be a refugee channel. They are under preparation in the Middle East, and group loans to Syrian borrowers are offered through on-line site Kiva. As “base of the pyramid” consumers, the financial and telecoms sectors are ripe for innovation, and Mastercard has created digital vouchers and prepaid debit cards in cooperation with relief agencies, and European phone company Orange has built international dialing and banking infrastructure in Uganda. The paper concludes that these early models for refugee business may be inspiring but still lack a “rigorous evidence base. ” It advises establishment of ethical standards, evaluation tools, country dialogues and research centers to solidify commercial awareness and lay the foundation for routine participation that lasts apart from the Tent label.

The BIS’ Deliberate Debt Composition Unraveling
2017 September 25 by admin

Posted in: Global Banking
The Bank for International Settlements, in its latest quarterly survey of cross-border banking and bond flows, unveiled a deeper statistical set covering euro and yen-denominated activity and a recent profile of emerging market government patterns in two dozen countries. The amount doubled the past decade to almost $12 trillion, with China and India accounting for three-quarters. Composition “changed significantly” with 80 percent through local and international bonds compared with 60 percent fifteen years ago, and concentrated in the former at fixed rates and longer maturities. The foreign currency share halved over the period to 15 percent, and the dollar’s portion was 75 percent. International issues comprised one-third of outstanding official securities in Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Indonesia and Poland, and Mexico is the top issuer overall with almost $70 billion placed over several decades. With few exceptions like Argentina, where over half of Treasuries are dollar-quoted, this structure has progressively faded as Turkey for example redeemed the remaining stock five years ago. Maturity has “risen sharply” and is just below the advanced economy 8-year average, with South Africa’s the longest at 16 years, outpacing the US, Australia, Germany and Canada. The fixed-return slice in turn jumped to 75 percent from 60 percent in 2000, in contrast with the industrial world’s 90-95 percent standard. Malaysia, Taiwan and Thailand issue only this type, and Chile’s fraction of the total quadrupled to 40 percent since 2005. Inflation indexing has also taken off in Latin America in particular, and is one-third of Brazil’s local debt. The BIS concludes that currency mismatch and rollover risks are reduced to aid sustainability, with the caveat that longer duration could now further erode market value with future global interest rate rises.

The quarterly roundup tracked less than 5% increases in cross-border bank claims and debt placement worldwide, with dollar credit to developing country borrowers at $3. 5 trillion at end-March. Middle East and Africa oil exporters got another $60 billion and Asia and Latin America $40 and $20 billion respectively, while Europe allocation fell $25 billion. Credit above GDP growth trends signal alarm in China and Hong Kong, although debt service ratios remain manageable, according to the report. Industry association EMTA’s Q2 trading volume tally came out at the same time, with a 15 percent annual and quarterly decrease to $1. 1 trillion attributed to greater passive ETF inflows. Local instruments were over 55%, with Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, China and India the favorites. Eurobond action was close to $500 billion, again with Brazil at the top followed by Argentina. CDS turnover not yet in the ETF frame was also down 9% to $260 billion. With domestic bond market opening Chinese assets now account for almost one-tenth of activity, helping to offset uncertainty in other asset classes like private equity which has noticeably slackened since 2015, according to a September Preqin study. Only forty funds worth under $10 billion have closed year to date, with deal value at $35 billion. It casts a shadow on the region as the biggest market, but two-thirds of fund managers polled expect to deploy more capital over the coming year, despite exit and valuation concerns that can decompose the landscape.





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Pakistan’s Graduation Gravity Spell
2017 September 18 by admin

Posted in: Asia
Pakistan shares continued at the bottom of the Asian pack, with an over 10% loss through August, as a typical pattern of post-upgrade retrenchment after rejoining the core MSCI Index combined with extended bouts of political and geopolitical and balance of payments instability resurrecting IMF qualms after the first-ever program completion in 2016. Recent graduates from the frontier to main gauges Qatar and the UAE telegraphed the correction path after large run-ups in advance as they suffered their own diplomatic and fiscal setbacks, but Pakistan’s were more pronounced in view of its lower per capita income developing country status. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, a nominal economic reformer, was forced to resign ahead of 2018 elections after a military-influenced court investigation to face corruption charges, although his party, now led by his brother, continues with a parliamentary majority.

The opposition PTI, headed by former cricket champion Imran Khan, has criticized the Sharif family’s dubious wealth accumulation but not yet offered a convincing program to sway the establishment business and financial communities, which increasingly look to Asian alongside traditional Western partnerships again eroded by US President Trump’s rhetorical hard line in his new Afghanistan strategy. With these elements unfolding, the currency dropped to a record 105 low against the dollar, as the central bank and finance ministry accused each other of mismanagement, underscoring lingering policy and performance doubts highlighted by the IMF’s July Article IV report. The new Prime Minister, Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, denied formal devaluation but will reduce “unnecessary” imports to cushion international reserves, down one-quarter to $14 billion from last October’s peak.

The Fund’s retrospective of the 2013-16 arrangement praised macroeconomic and reform steps, but pointed out fresh risks alongside “long-standing” fiscal and current account deficit, public domestic and external debt, financial and power sector, and poverty and unemployment challenges. GDP growth this fiscal year will be above 5% due largely to China’s Economic Corridor infrastructure building, while remittances from the Persian Gulf in particular are “sluggish. ” With higher food costs from lagging agriculture headline inflation is also heading toward 5%, and the central bank may have to shift its monetary stance from accommodation to tightening, especially with additional exchange rate pressure. The fiscal position remains precarious, with the gap running below target at 4% of GDP on flagging tax collection amid widespread evasion, which was a chief priority under the Fund facility. The trade deficit was a record $40 billion for the year ending in June, with reserves just over three months imports as the central bank’s foreign exchange derivative obligations nearly doubled to $3. 5 billion. Bank private credit is up almost 15% annually but gross bad loans are 10% of the total, as small banks are undercapitalized and deposit insurance is just about to launch.

State power company arrears built up again to the equivalent of 1% of GDP in the first half of the fiscal year, as the stock exchange privatization of distributors, designed to improve governance and payment, remains delayed. With the chronic energy crunch natural gas supplies also languish with 10% losses, above international standards according to experts. Pakistan was among the top 10 gainers in the World Bank’s Doing Business ranking, as it rose four spots to 144 out of 190 countries with records automation and a new secured transactions law. However, the IMF’s July evaluation urged overdue labor market, one-stop investment shop, property registration, and commercial arbitration changes. It also noted a continued poor score at 116 on the companion Transparency International list, with corruption, money laundering and hidden assets found to be common practices. Financial inclusion also lagged toward low income female and rural populations in particular, as a strategy to widen conventional and Islamic banking access through end-decade is at an early stage.

External debt was almost $60 billion at end-March, with $40 billion in bilateral and multilateral loans as sovereign borrowing is increasingly on commercial terms through Eurobonds and China’s One Belt One Road initiative. Finance Minister Ishaq Dar ruled out IMF return urged by chambers of commerce as another $500 million-$1billion global bond is under preparation for the coming months, However credit default swap spreads have recently risen 100 basis points, signaling a likely ratings downgrade and yield premium that could indefinitely scuttle both Fund program and MSCI index graduation ambitions.



















Central America’s Clinging Clown Acts
2017 September 18 by admin

Posted in: Latin America/Caribbean
Central American bonds sold off as Guatemala’s president Morales, formerly a well-known comedian, ousted the UN’s anti-corruption monitor as it investigated his family and political party, and El Salvador grappled with a pension reform standoff accumulated over two decades with total liabilities now at $25 billion or 90 percent of GDP. Costa Rica also tripped up on new external debt authorization and fiscal outlays for court spending which may not get parliamentary backing ahead of February 2018 elections, as Panama’s President Varela, with record low 35 percent approval ratings, was embroiled in the Brazil construction company Odebrecht bribery scandal, with alleged payments to his campaign and for a metro project bid. Guatemala’s business community is at odds with popular support of the UN integrity body, which dates back decades to the “dirty war” period of army control, and street rallies have condemned the President’s “clown circus” in expelling the mission to possibly salvage his own immunity. Economic growth is around 3 percent, as criminal gangs and violence have spurred emigration once targeting the US, but with increased border enforcement often staying instead in Mexico. El Salvador’s government, with both the FMLN and ARENA parties holding a similar number of assembly seats, initially missed obligations in the mixed public-private system in April, as they argued about overdue contribution charge and retirement age changes. Ratings agency downgrades of at least one notch followed, with S&P assigning “selective default” until the amount was cleared in July on budget appropriation. The next big chunk due is in October and in the wake of court rulings urging compromise the ruling FMLN declared it would consider opposition proposals, which could include caps on monthly draws and private manager fees alongside higher taxes. Performance has lagged the EMBI sub-index as spreads jumped 50 basis points in recent months, with the pension clash and IMF program likelihood scuttled indefinitely especially in light of previous results.

Private pension pioneer Chile has also been debating overhaul to ensure basic floors but debate remains stuck with President Bachelet’s unpopularity and the race on to succeed her in early 2018, with previous incumbent and conservative party stalwart Pinera in the lead. Shares are ahead at roughly the MSCI index 25 percent average on copper price recovery, although this year’s growth is forecast at 1-1. 5 percent on 2 percent inflation, which may allow a 25 basis point rate reduction at the next central bank meeting. However Finance Minister Valdes and other officials resigned with confidence ebbing toward the end of Bachelet’s second term amid a cabinet fight over a mining venture’s environmental fallout. Colombia in contrast has share gains only half that range, with growth around the same level and an interest rate cut already on higher than target 4. 5 percent inflation. The gross debt burden is near 50 percent of GDP, 10 percent above the “BBB” median, and the latest fiscal package with a 3 percent deficit may not stave off a downgrade in advance of next March polls. The outlook is negative and the current account hole remains structural with oil exports off a bottom but still lackluster. Ex-guerilla FARC members entered congress after signing a peace pact and receiving demobilization funds, and the ELN may follow suit as lengthy civil war costs shift to their aftermath.

Power Africa’s Short-Circuited Anniversary Annals
2017 September 11 by admin

Posted in: Africa
Power Africa released its first annual report under the Trump administration on its fourth anniversary, as the new head of AID, which coordinates the program, hailed a “hand up” in mobilizing over $50 billion in combined public-private sector commitments to expanding connections as envisioned under the 2015 Electrify Africa Act. A recent breakthrough was a $25 million regional pension fund investment in a generation company, and the team has worked with 100 US partner firms to promote women’s commercial and official participation. To date 80 transactions worth $15 billion have been facilitated producing over 7000 megawatts and reaching over 50 million users. Nigeria has accounted for almost half the extra hookups, followed by South Africa where AID’s office is located and Tanzania, where former President Obama made a high-profile visit to launch a solar project soon after the initiative was announced. Natural gas and hydro technology accounted for over 5000 MW, and two-thirds of connections are through solar lanterns, with 10 million people accessing larger grids and systems. A major thrust is technical assistance for the enabling environment, with a focus on legal and regulatory changes, cost-effective tariffs, and more creditworthy deal structures. The 25 projects at or near completion with US operations should support $500 million in exports. The Trade and Development Agency and Ex-Im Bank backed feasibility studies and loans, and AID leveraged $200 million through its credit authority, while OPIC has been in the lead with $2. 5 billion in funding and insurance for ten power plants. Among the 15 bilateral and multilateral counterparts the French government was recently added, and cooperation with the African Development Bank has concentrated on a joint legal facility for project finance and purchase agreements. By end-decade Power Africa’s capacity and coverage should more than double according to projections, provided President Trump preserves such trade and investment engagement with the continent. At the annual private sector AGOA forum in Togo in August US officials including Commerce Secretary Ross could not articulate specific elements of future arrangements even as duty-free Sub-Saharan import status was renewed under the previous Congress.

Private equity is targeted for power ventures as the industry group EMPEA charted double digit first half fundraising and investment jumps, with the $22 billion allocated for the period the highest on record. KKR, which launched a dedicated African vehicle in the wake of Power Africa, closed the biggest fund to date at almost $9. 5 billion for Asia, and energy-specific ones are in vogue as evidenced by Actis’ $2. 7 billion global tap. Off-grid and micro-generation assets are increasingly attractive to managers with dozens of deals annually the last five years. Emerging market cash inflow into mid-year was half Western Europe’s $45 billion total and 10 percent of the worldwide sum, but PE penetration as a portion of GDP continues to badly lag developed world members. Sub-Sahara Africa’s is only 0. 1 percent, with half from Nigeria, and South Africa’s is at the same level. India and Korea top the list at 0. 2 percent, and the ratio in Brazil, China, Poland and advanced economy Japan is around the region’s, as the Middle East, Russia and Turkey are further behind on this power curve version.

Argentina’s Convoluted Christening Ceremony
2017 September 11 by admin

Posted in: Latin America/Caribbean
Argentine stocks, after sloughing off disappointment at MSCI’s unmentioned first-tier return with the frontier index up 35% through July, was again on edge into mid-August primary elections, with former President Christina Fernandez charting a Senate comeback to rally the opposition Peronist party. She retains popularity especially among working class pockets in the capital as the current political base, given the large social spending during her tenure subsequently slowed under the Macri government’s austerity policies. However corruption and money laundering investigations have put her on the defensive, and she roughly tied with the ruling Change coalition candidate in the preliminary race ahead of the October mid-term polls. Foreign investors took her revived visibility in stride as the central bank intervened to support the peso after relative stability following its free float. Recent inflation figures still at 1. 5 percent monthly and delays in agricultural export proceeds have pressured the currency, but the monetary authority has tried to maintain high real interest rates through a 25 percent benchmark and Lebac secondary market transactions. The exchange rate has slipped over 10 percent in nominal terms the past few months to 17/dollar with the current account deficit wider at 3 percent of GDP on goods and services imbalances, the latter from increased tourism abroad. Fiscal policy is mostly on target with the primary gap around 4. 5 percent of GDP despite election-related outlays and consolidation backlash as unions organize against consumer subsidy and provincial transfer cuts. Should President Macri’s grouping hold its own in the October contest the process will accelerate as sovereign bond holders have begun to insist on further discipline with growth pickup to sustain high-yield participation.

Brazil is also grappling with overdue reforms as President Temer survived an initial impeachment attempt and his cabinet vowed to press on with labor and social security changes. The employment code overhaul will update World War II era practices and ease administrative burdens for small business in particular, while pension adjustment remains uncertain with plans to extend retirement age and conceivably shift to private fund reliance as the current generous scheme is an outsize budget drag. The pro-business PSDB, which backed Temer’s ouster, is a proponent while his PMDB, the largest party in Congress is divided a year from the next scheduled national elections. The government must tread carefully after bad publicity over price and service switches at passport offices and other essential arms to save money. The overall deficit is stuck at 10 percent of GDP and the once sacrosanct primary surplus will not reappear over the near-term. Loosening has moved to the monetary side as the central bank continues to reduce the benchmark Selic, with inflation at a 20-year low of 3 percent on incipient economic recovery. However recession is still deep in Rio de Janeiro state a year after the Summer Olympics there prompting a media blitz of critical retrospectives. A former governor is in jail and major politicians in charge of the event contacts face criminal prosecution, as law and order has worsened since the closing ceremonies. Federal authorities have dispatched 10000 troops to patrol the streets and beaches as the sporting facilities originally designed for productive municipal use lay idle in another form of retirement abuse.

South Africa’s Unconcealed Radical Regret
2017 September 5 by admin

Posted in: Africa
South African shares, after a decent 15 percent jump through July still lagging the core universe 25 percent, scrambled to react to the mixed parliamentary confidence vote message to President Zuma, who won with a slim majority despite dozens of ANC ruling party members defecting in a secret ballot. The opposition Democratic Alliance has seized on unending scandals while attempting to forge a moderate alternative to the “radical economic transformation” newly embraced by the President to rally support and engineer the possible succession of his ex-wife in 2019 elections. Recession was recorded in the first quarter with unemployment near 30 percent, and the populist platform would increase government control across agricultural, industry and financial sectors to shift the post-independence course despite local and foreign investor resistance. Land expropriation would veer toward the Zimbabwe model of minimal or no compensation for transfer to black ownership, and mining firms would have to sell or hand over 30 percent of shares over time, up from the 26 percent in the existing charter, in addition to paying a 1 percent revenue levy. The industry, whose size at 7% of GDP has shrunk with hundreds of thousands of job losses the past decade, promises to fight the changes in court as “confused and contradictory” as listed companies were dumped on the Johannesburg exchange. Deputy ANC President Ramaphosa, a Zuma rival, has sided with the business community in urging reconsideration, as a recent African ranking of mining climates put the country behind neighbors Botswana and Namibia. The central bank with its long record of steady monetary policy management is also in the crosshairs of the activist campaign as it faces calls for rand intervention and social welfare rather than price stability focus. Commercial banks in turn are under pressure to forgive or slash high-interest consumer debt accumulated in recent years to depress sentiment. With the inflation forecast cut to 5. 5 percent, the benchmark repo rate was lowered 25 basis points to 6. 75 percent in July. However the Reserve Bank cautioned the relief could be temporary ahead of risk events, including another ANC conference in December and potential sovereign ratings downgrade with the agency review cycle.

Finance Minister Gigaba, a controversial pick, previewed second quarter growth in the 2 percent range while unveiling an “inclusive” stimulus plan drawing on state enterprise balance sheets to boost the economy over the medium term and forestall relegation to “junk” rating status. Fiscal consolidation is still a goal but assigned reduced priority, as a turnaround in the terms of trade and regular drought could offer respite, despite sluggish services readings and uneven rand performance against the weaker dollar this year. Agriculture was a sore spot in Kenya as well going into presidential polls with its MSCI frontier gauge up over 20 percent on expectations of voting calm and a likely second business-friendly Kenyatta term. GDP growth has sputtered below 5 percent, but billions of dollars in infrastructure projects like a China-sponsored railway should raise output while the central bank tries to cap inflation at single digits. In a June pilot government bonds were sold to retail investors by mobile phone in part to finance these ventures, and were snapped up with a 10 percent yield despite technical glitches undermining confidence.





Russia’s Singeing Sanctions Stretch
2017 September 5 by admin

Posted in: Europe
Russian stocks continued outlier double-digit losses despite a pickup in Q2 GDP growth to the 4 percent range as US President Trump reluctantly signed new punitive measures against individuals, state banks and energy companies passed overwhelmingly in Congress, which also consider extending post-Crimea and Ukraine invasion punishment to sovereign debt investment. The Treasury Department will study the issue and report back early next year, but the timetable could be accelerated on evidence of Moscow’s further military forays and 2016 presidential election tampering. President Putin decried the action after holding cordial meetings with the Trump team at the recent G-20 summit, and retaliated with expulsion of half the American Embassy staff in the capital. The fighting could literally escalate as Washington reportedly may begin funneling arms to Kiev to repel Eastern rebels who have declared a breakaway Donbas Republic. The push could coincide with more erratic performance under the IMF program, as defense spending has undermined original fiscal discipline commitments despite recession escape and currency stability helping to fuel a 15 percent MSCI frontier index gain through July. Russian industrial output was up 5 percent in June, but retail sales are still flat with lackluster consumer sentiment, prompting retail giant Sberbank to slash mortgage rates to lift confidence. FDI had recovered last year to $13 billion and US banks and companies were again exploring ventures, but momentum may be derailed with the fresh sanctions provisions targeting cyber-security, infrastructure project and “corrupt” privatization broadly. The last category has made headlines with the $3 billion asset stripping lawsuit filed by oil behemoth Rosneft, after taking over rival Bashneft formerly owned by industry conglomerate Systema, after its chief executive fell out of Kremlin favor and was placed under house arrest. The clash underscored perennial corporate governance dysfunction structurally discounting the market P/E ratio to single digits and Rosneft’s high economic profile as it also negotiates additional concessions for Venezuela oil fields after accumulating a 49 percent position in US chain Citgo for collateral in its main joint venture.

As the country skirts possible bond default under pariah status with President Maduro’s installation of a replacement assembly, Russian lenders may be ready to offer backstops, but the sector has been blighted with hundreds of closures ordered by the central bank since 2013. The latest is 30th ranking Yugra, which “manipulated” and falsified accounts to fool depositors and regulators. The bottleneck has occurred against the backdrop of notable strides otherwise in the World Bank’s Doing Business indicators, where Russia and neighbors have led all regions since 2010 according to a companion report. At the same time as the reinforced Washington estrangement, relations with Turkey have turned cozier after a brief trade boycott for plane destruction in Syria ended. The stock market there in contrast is up 35 percent this year on tax, spending and credit stimulus supporting 5 percent growth on the anniversary of 2016’s doomed coup. President Erdogan recently met again with his Russian counterpart, who unlike officials in Brussels has refrained from criticizing mass detentions and firings of government and media workers accused of anti-regime sympathy. He has also seized company stakes and pooled them into a $200 billion sovereign wealth fund for infrastructure outlays, while exhorting private banks to relax their grip from pre-coup torn balance sheets.

Fund Flows’ Record Reset Rumblings
2017 August 29 by admin

Posted in: Fund Flows
EPFR-tracked fund bond and equity inflows were at record-setting pace through August, at $70 billion and $50 billion respectively, with numbers due to match 2012, before the Fed Reserve’s taper tantrum blow. Including so-called strategic allocation through separately managed accounts, the former category should exceed the $105 billion total five years ago, as non-dedicated investors have jumped in to join retail appetite reflected in unprecedented ETF preference. Local currency still lags hard currency interest, continuing recent annual trends, but could catch up by end-year as dollar correction persists after its initial lift on Trump reflation and protectionist policy agendas. By the same token external corporate and sovereign exposure is increasingly converging as gross issuance reaches estimated $400 billion and $150 billion sums in 2017, at spreads over US Treasuries in the 250-300 basis point range. Fixed-income index returns average high single-digits, but lag stocks with the benchmark MSCI soaring 25 percent with the P/E ratio at 14 times. In the detailed EPFR breakdown one-quarter of participation is through ETFs and global as opposed to regional or country funds dominate. North American and European investors eagerly subscribe the offerings, while Japanese ones shy away. The data show a heavy tilt toward consumer goods and technology in contrast with financial and commodity listings, and dividend as well as capital gain strategies. Company profits will increase over 10 percent on a forward basis due to better management and margins and the growth uptick to 5 percent in Q2 on China stabilization and positive trade volume after restriction threats. Brazil, Russia and South Africa are back from recession, and inflation is subdued across the universe with food and fuel costs relatively constant as exchange rates strengthen. Against this background, few central banks will raise interest rates with the vast majority staying on hold or easing marginally.

However the BRICS and other core markets have not shaken off political risks that combine to act as a potential future drag. Brazil has avoided a second impeachment for now with a vote not to remove President Temer despite bribery accusations, as his predecessor Lula was found guilty of these charges and sentenced to a long prison stretch he will appeal. Finance Minister Mereilles promised to press on with social security reform after the decision, but the constituency for fiscal discipline is thin and wavering heading into another election cycle. Russia was subject to additional US energy and individual sanctions, after Congress almost unanimously passed legislation over President Trump’s objections that it interfered with executive foreign policy determination. Moscow retaliated by ejecting half of Embassy employees, as Russian shares continue to be an exception with a 15 percent decline through July. Poland has led the regional pack with a 40 percent jump, but the EU is considering penalties under Article 7 for anti-democratic action as the government assumes sweeping power over the nominally independent judiciary. The Brussels backlash follows similar signals against Hungary, another stock market high-flyer, for the Orban administration’s anti-migrant steps, including alleged abuses in detention and residential facilities. The “nuclear option” in both cases would be cohesion fund cutoff, equivalent to 20 percent of GDP, at the same time the world is facing the actual prospect in North Korea with the specter of literal Asian fallout.

Central Africa Should Rejigger Rescue Formula (Financial Times)
2017 August 29 by admin

Posted in: Africa
As an August IMF blog recounts, four of the six countries in the Francophone Central Africa Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC)—Cameroon, Gabon, Chad and the Central Africa Republic—are now in oil price collapse and debt crisis programs with negotiations also begun with the Republic of Congo and Equatorial Guinea. They share a common central bank and the CFA Franc currency tied to the euro and managed through the French Treasury, which requires backing with half of foreign reserves. The Fund notes that despite a summit in Yaoundé last year that pledged commodity diversification and fiscal, financial sector and business climate changes, policy maker delay and the spreading Boko Haram conflict left the region in “dire shape” to be addressed chiefly through traditional austerity and transparency nostrums. French President Macron, at the recent G-20 summit, for his part recommended a new strategy that could involve shedding the 50-year old currency peg, but his message lacked specifics and was garbled by reference to “civilizational” differences like deep-rooted corruption and large families that can frustrate growth and modernization plans. Instead of relying on historic outside bilateral and multilateral relationships to overcome its repeated predicament, Central Africa should focus on its own stalled efforts, such as in banking integration and stock exchange launch, to achieve development breakthroughs and narrow the income and sophistication gap with the neighboring West Africa UEMOA zone led by Cote d’ Ivoire and Senegal, which has started to link with the English-speaking ECOWAS group.

Oil is 60 percent of CEMAC’s exports and earnings halved from 2014-16 as the current account deficit neared 10 percent of output. Public debt rose 20 percent, approaching 50 percent of GDP, and international reserves dipped $10 billion to cover only two months’ imports, below the danger threshold exacerbated by the fixed exchange rate. The Fund arrangements feature standard formulas to correct imbalances and also limit further commercial borrowing from Cameroon and Gabon, which have issued Eurobonds and are components in JP Morgan’s NEXGEM index. Cameroon is to prioritize infrastructure projects from domestic and donor resources, and boost non-oil revenue through land taxes and ending exemptions. High bad loan levels and insolvent banks will be resolved and private sector “administrative obstacles” slashed, with 3. 5 percent of GDP safeguarded for education and health spending. Gabon will improve public finance management and show progress across the World Bank’s “Doing Business” indicators, especially on company startup, construction permits, property registration and contract enforcement. After getting the first installment of its $650 million facility, GDP growth stabilized in mid-year at 1 percent with oil price recovery and mining, timber and construction contributions, with exports up almost 40 percent on an annual basis. Both Cameroon and Gabon are led by longstanding rulers, and their governments must follow extractive industry transparency initiative (EITI) reporting and also clear and disclose outstanding contract arrears. Chad, which must restructure external commercial debt, and the Central Africa Republic, gripped by civil war, face similar program criteria with larger relative allowances for anti-poverty outlays.

As of April the central bank BEAC’s gross reserves were $4. 5 billion, as it worked to maintain the integrity of the decades old CFA Franc structure, deal with the 15 percent commercial bank non-performing loan ratio, and tighten monetary policy through a 50 basis point interest rate hike and reduced access to overdraft facilities. Excess liquidity has evaporated from the system, which now requires emergency lines and recapitalization, according to a June IMF regional policy report. Stricter statutory ceilings on government borrowing will apply, and banks in turn will face collateral limitations for refinancing under the latest Fund pacts. Interbank foreign exchange and capital markets will also deepen, and supervision is due to strengthen next year with enforcement of prudential rules including connected lending, risk concentration, asset provisioning and board conduct alongside basic capital sufficiency. Several smaller banks have been closed and seized, most recently in Gabon, and with the deposit insurance regime to be finalized in 2018 other “orderly” insolvencies are likely following the terms agreed between the BEAC regulators.

These promises have fallen short in past efforts, and even if honored member countries could plot their own future direction apart from conventional recipes. They could explore a phased devaluation or peg to a wider currency basket, to include the dollar and major emerging market units given trade and investment links. “Single passport” cross-border banking approaches should be revisited in full operational and regulatory senses and the dormant Central African securities market, with a few government and state company bond listings, can be cast as an active private sector debt and equity platform, or merged with the bigger nearby West African bourse so this frontier region charts a proprietary path that is no longer desperate.



Iraq’s Unreconstructed Conflict Model
2017 August 23 by admin

Posted in: MENA
Iraq’s first $1 billion stand-alone bond was oversubscribed at an almost 7% yield as security forces were poised to retake Mosul from ISIS control and the IMF released another $800 million under its $5 billion multi-year program. In February it issued for the same amount with a US government guarantee at 2%, and a decade ago a $2. 7 billion restructuring operation was completed for the post-Saddam era. During July global oil prices also rose $10/barrel, but local investors stayed bearish on equities despite the average P/E ratio at 8 times as the Rabee Securities index slipped 10% in June. State banks are main listings and offer high dividends, with only one-fifth the population having accounts, and fees rather than lending driving income with assets concentrated in Treasury bills amid flush liquidity. The IMF’s review noted fragility and missed targets, with millions displaced by military campaigns and billions of dollars in infrastructure destroyed. The budget deficit was 15 percent of GDP last year, but it is to be eliminated through end-decade to stabilize public debt as the current account also returns to surplus over the period with passage of the defense and humanitarian emergencies. One third of the country, including 250,000 Syrian refugees current receive aid, but internal and external repatriation is unlikely to increase in the near-term even with liberation of Mosul and other cities pending credible rebuilding plans. Elections are due next year and the Finance Minister was replaced after losing parliament’s confidence with the Prime Minister assuming the post. Official debt doubled to near 70% of GDP since 2013, and bond yields spiked to 15 percent before the latest standby agreement was reached. The current account hole was over 8. 5 percent of GDP in 2016 and covered chiefly by donor flows, as international reserves dipped to $45 billion or six months imports. The currency appreciated in line with the dollar peg, and credit to the economy was flat with banks’ undercapitalization and double-digit NPLs. Non-oil growth should pick up after ISIS’ defeat, while inflation remains low at 2 percent.
Fund conditions will preserve the dollar-linked exchange rate, as devaluation would aggravate inflation and fail to help exports, but simplify foreign currency allocation and trading procedures to shrink the official-parallel level disparity. The central bank law will be strengthened with prudential rules to reflect prevailing international standards with outside technical assistance. Along with long-delayed bank restructuring the private business climate is in need of overhaul especially on electricity access and anti-corruption. Program risks are high, the report concludes, with a $7 billion financing gap identified for 2018-19 even under positive direction. Gulf, Asian and Western donors have been approached for additional pledges but regional supporters like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are under pressure to get their own houses in order, as reflected in flat stock market performance while the main core and frontier indices are ahead 15-25 percent. Jordan and Lebanon are also down for the year, with large refugee populations, political infighting and security threats, as “frailty” remains the watchword in the IMF’s view almost fifteen years after the international community’s first Iraq attack rumblings.

Asia Local Bonds’ Unheeded Unstable Equilibrium
2017 August 23 by admin

Posted in: Asia
The latest edition of the Asian Development Banks’s local currency bond publication, covering nine emerging markets for the full first quarter through May, cited greater stability with reduced spreads and foreign capital inflows as it cautioned about immediate global liquidity and cyber-attack risks. It noted an issuance slowdown from China in particular on its deleveraging campaign, with the mainland accounting for 70% of the $10. 5 trillion government and corporate instruments outstanding. Indonesia in contrast experienced an overseas ownership leap to almost 40% of the total with a Standard & Poor’s ratings upgrade. On the two decade anniversary of the crisis which launched the Asia Bond Market Initiative with the Bank’s online monitoring and regular technical assistance, the reference also looked at the 2008 and 2013 Taper Tantrum spasms to examine the empirical record of domestic bond market deepening. The evidence pointed to less exposure to currency and maturity mismatch, but did not rule out future troubles on economic, monetary and business cycle turns which could also deflate this traditional “spare tire” supplementing bank loans and stock markets.

The ADB noted that gradual monetary policy normalization in the US, EU and Japan could “impinge” on East Asia’s financial markets. The Federal Reserve has ended quantitative easing and nudged interest rates marginally, and may begin to unwind the $4 trillion portfolio of Treasury, mortgage-backed and agency securities bought for commercial fixed income support the past decade. This rolling off is designed as a multi-year process implying that short-term Asian spillover should be “manageable,” but leverage has accumulated over a prolonged loose money period that could pose danger especially if the Eurozone also pares bond purchases. Global GDP growth forecasts have picked up, with developing Asia to expand 5. 7% this year and next, but long-term yields have started to rise and investors have only recently “rediscovered” emerging market assets with fleeting confidence. Moody’s downgraded China’s sovereign rating from Aa3 to A1 at the same time, and continued US rate lifts will “adversely affect” heavy borrower company balance sheets in particular. Yields could spike and trading volumes sink as in 2013, and the consecutive Bangladesh central bank and Wanna Cry cyber- crimes in 2016 and 2017 revealed additional systemic weaknesses across banks and capital market intermediaries compromising safe-asset transactions, according to the review.

First quarter bond market growth was only 1% from 2. 5% in the previous one, with China’s local government and corporate placement the main drags. By comparison, Korea’s number two near $2 trillion market was up 1. 5% on Treasury bond front-loading for budget stimulus. Thailand and Malaysia each rose 3%, with the latter’s Islamic-style sukuk over half the total. Hong Kong and Singapore were roughly tied at the $250 billion activity range, while Indonesia’s surged 4. 5% in the period to close to $175 billion. The Philippines and Vietnam had respective $100 billion and $45 billion totals as the smallest in the region. The annual growth rate was 13% for the quarter, with the government-corporate split at 65%-35% and local currency bonds approaching 70% of GDP.

Foreign ownership strengthened everywhere outside Malaysia, where the share dropped 6 points to 25%, through March, although the trend there also stabilized in April with resumed capital inflows. Investors remain wary after the central bank’s surprise ban on non-deliverable ringgit forwards to hedge positions, and the continuing drip from the 1MDB fund scandal with a repayment to Abu Dhabi creditors past the due date. Thailand’s international participation hit 15% on opposite news as a healthy current account surplus and reserves buoyed sentiment despite lingering political stalemate, as ousted Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra prepared to face trial for alleged rice subsidy abuse. Cross-border issuance within East Asia was a paltry $2. 3 billion for the quarter, led by China, followed by Korea, Malaysia and Singapore, and a fraction of the $105 billion G-3 currency amount from January-April on good worldwide appetite. Inflation and interest rates were largely steady through May, as countries tweaked laws and regulations to solidify the bond market ballast shown by the ADB’s statistical regressions to offset exchange rate depreciation pressure. China and Thailand announced new rules for low-grade and unrated bonds, and Malaysia and Vietnam authorized short-selling, but after 15 years local bond development is in search of a long-haul catalyst that can apply with the same sense of crisis urgency to overcome potentially imminent global bond bruising.





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China’s Party Pep Talk Preening
2017 August 16 by admin

Posted in: Asia
Chinese shares were up over 30 percent on the MSCI index through July, as solid economic data and financial work conference rhetoric overcame US trade retaliation threats following lack of agreement to cut steel exports in particular during the bilateral strategic dialogue in Washington. Second quarter GDP growth was 6. 9 percent, with majority contributions from consumption and services, as infrastructure investment rose 20 percent and fixed-asset outlays at half that pace. Inflation was steady at 1. 5 percent with money supply expansion continuing to drop to 9. 5 percent on shadow banking and international conglomerate- centered deleveraging. The Yuan appreciated 3 percent against the dollar as the central bank hailed “market confidence” and Fitch Ratings pointed to a 1 percent jump in foreign ownership under the new Bond Connect. President Xi called for improved currency trading and internationalization efforts at the annual financial sector Party forum, ahead of the landmark October Congress which will formalize his second term. Reserves have returned to the $3 trillion mark, and banks have been net foreign exchange sellers the past year, as Chinese tourist spending abroad increased 2. 5 percent in 2016. The Economist’s “Big Mac Index” puts RMB undervaluation at 45 percent, but less subjective expert readings have it in the 5 percent range. Politburo statements at the July meeting focused on debt risks, including in local governments and households, with the latter soon to reach 50 percent of GDP. Ratings agencies reinforced caution, with S&P keeping a long-term negative outlook due to runaway credit despite the high savings rate. A financial stability council was formed to coordinate regulation and urgent action through the central bank, which ordered lower wealth management product returns as they approached a 2-year top toward 5 percent. It will be on the lookout for capital and insurance market “abnormal fluctuations” as well as real estate froth and the warning helped prompt a 17 percent loss on the small company tech-heavy ChiNext.

All big state enterprises will be converted to joint stock ownership by year-end but private capital participation has not yet been defined. Profits were up 15 percent among a cross-section of 100 firms in the first half, but company leverage averages over 150 percent, according to official statistics. The government has introduced curbs on further lending to aggressive overseas acquirers like HNA and Dalian Wanda to set an example as it consolidates holdings, most recently in the shipping industry, with coal and heavy machinery deals in the pipeline. Property investment jumped 8. 5 percent at mid-year and the 70-city price index again was higher in June. President Xi may leave the sector alone until his reelection, but he has tightened controls over local government borrowing with phase out of financing vehicles, with large real estate assets, in favor of more disciplined bond issuance. He may elevate anti-corruption chief Wang Quishan, who oversaw the biggest investment trust bankruptcy during the 1990’s financial crisis with foreign creditors, to premier in a sign that top-level restructuring expertise and vision may again be pressing. His latest target was a party boss in Chongqing who may now be eliminated from standing committee consideration, as gaming center Macau continues to suffer from the anti-capital flight and money laundering purge.

The IMF’s Regional Reinforcement Rehash
2017 August 16 by admin

Posted in: IFIs
Ahead of the next annual meetings the IMF’s Policy Review Department has published background papers on potential elements of an expanded global financial safety net leveraging Fund resources, a priority identified under the Managing Director’s work program and endorsed by major county shareholders. They have agreed in principle on an increased backstop beyond the existing prequalified contingency credit and new coordination approaches, with existing regional mechanisms profiled in a case studies document of a half-dozen recent crisis flare-ups. It looks at emerging economy constructs in Asia, Europe, the Middle East and Latin America and through the BRICS, with a particular focus on information sharing, surveillance capacity, and loan instruments to examine likely Fund facility fits. The analysis separately sketches out a quantitative contagion model that could serve as a future collaboration basis and sequence emergency partnerships according to the formula. The Arab Monetary Fund, founded 40 years ago, has $5 billion in capital and twenty members and was designed to correct balance of payments problems, including sudden oil import difficulties. It offers trade reform, broader structural adjustment and short-term liquidity assistance, and recent operations involved Egypt, Jordan, Mauritania and Sudan. The BRICS’ $100 billion contingent reserve was launched in 2014 with China’s contribution highest at $40 billion. It has not been tapped yet, but rules call for one-third access to currency lines with member agreement, and the remaining available with a formal IMF arrangement. The Chiang Mai Initiative among the Asean+3, a bilateral and multilateral swap regime, has been in place since 2000 with $250 billion on hand. It too offers 30 percent immediately and the rest tied to a Fund program, and has conducted “test runs” while never formally tapped. Members did help Indonesia with backup support during the 2008 crash in de facto application, although the episode passed in short order.

The Eurasian Fund was set up a decade ago by Russia and five CIS neighbors with the biggest Kazakhstan. It can provide $8. 5 billion including grants for social purposes, and extended balance of payments aid to Belarus and Tajikistan and infrastructure credit to Armenia and the Kyrgyz Republic. Non-euro EU states have an EUR 50 billion kitty from 2002 predating the 2015 Stabilization Mechanism for the sovereign debt crisis, which was drawn on by Hungary, Latvia and Romania. The ESM’s current size is around EUR 700 billion and has been deployed on multiple occasions in Ireland, Portugal, Cyprus and Greece. Its writ goes beyond traditional external reserves protection in view of the single currency to encompass secondary bond buying and bank recapitalization with central bank consultation. Latin America has its own four decade-old Reserve pool among seven economies with maximum capacity below $5 billion. Ecuador and Venezuela received $500 million range loans and central banks in Colombia and Peru got technical help. Europe the past decade provided all the case evaluations, and they show differences over conditionality, responsibility, burden-sharing and timeliness. Joint reviews were often uncoordinated to undermine confidence and momentum, and out of six experiences listed only Hungary was a clear success in terms of effective collaboration which required the parties to defer to respective “comparative advantages” in know-how and judgment as important as money at stake in future anti-crisis recipes, the authors imply.

Iran’s Certified Share Momentum Doubts
2017 August 10 by admin

Posted in: MENA
The Tehran Stock Exchange rebounded slightly for a 3% gain through July as the Trump administration, after putting Iran “on notice” for possible cheating, certified short-term compliance with the six-nation anti-nuclear agreement at the same time new congressional sanctions were passed to punish companies and individuals involved in its ballistic missile program and Syrian Assad regime support. Earlier the Treasury Department had ordered asset freezes against leaders and organizations accused of “malign influence” in the region. Washington’s actions came against the background of hardliner backlash by the Revolutionary Guard ( IRGC) and religious conservatives against President Hassan Rouhani’s easy re-election win. His brother was arrested on corruption allegations which he vehemently denied, after the President blasted the IRGC’s economic and political dominance as “government with a gun. ” Its leadership in turn savaged a breakthrough $5 billion gas deal with France’s Total and China’s CNPC as a “conspiracy” against domestic competitors. The Guard also viewed another waiver in June of Financial Action Task Force anti-money laundering measures as infringing on foreign policy and security as officials pass laws and rules to ensure bank adherence. The country remains on the blacklist but smaller European and Asian lenders have resumed correspondent relationships as they try to puzzle out growth and policy trends into Rouhani’s next reform act, thus far offering confused signals.

GDP growth was a torrid 11% for the fiscal year ended in March with oil export reopening and the non-oil sector up half that pace. according to official statistics. The IMF had estimated real growth rebound over 6%, and to further promote non-commodity sales the government earmarked a $500 million credit line and signed agreements with Korea’s and Turkey’s state trade banks. EU exports were five times higher than last year from January-April at EUR 3. 5 billion, concentrated in iron and steel products with Germany as the leading buyer. China remains the main energy importer and Iran is an infrastructure project target and crossroads under Beijing’s Silk-Road straddling Belt and Road scheme. Chinese state companies are active in mining and transport, and its cars and goods flood Tehran and other cities. The Export-Import Bank extended a $1. 5 billion railway loan for fast service between the capital and Mashad, and national network electrification is set by 2025. The country has forged new bilateral commercial pacts with France, India, Australia, Pakistan and South Africa and a port deal with Afghanistan to diversify and deepen traditional ties.

Next fiscal year growth projections are in the 4-5% range, but the expansion will still be unable to overcome lengthy recession from the UN sanctions period and crack double-digit unemployment. Inflation fell below 10% but crept up again to that level in June, on money printing to aid ailing banks, higher energy cost with subsidy reduction and real estate price recovery after years of doldrums. Modest exchange rate depreciation is another factor, and the government continues to delay unification between the controlled and parallel rates for fear of further inflationary fallout. The central bank benchmark interest or return rate under the Islamic system is steep at 15%, reflecting tight monetary policy but also choking industrial investment, which has prompted a business community outcry.

However cuts could trigger another inflation spike when the 40% memory of the early Rouhani Administration is not too distant, and will not unclog the lending spigots as banks grapple with a 12% understated nonperforming ratio. Central bank head Valiollah Seif warned executives before the election that a banking crisis could stymie economic integration and modernization progress since sanctions relief. The March bad loan total was almost $35 billion and will swell as international accounting standards enter into force as of July. The government is debating cleanup alternatives, and may first opt for consolidating leading state-controlled banks as in previous troubles. The stock exchange should see additional offerings with this strategy, such as with the recent $25 million flotation of a Bank Mellat subsidiary. Both local and foreign investors tend to shun this lagging sector, despite bargain valuations against the average six times price-earnings ratio. New London-based funds emphasize consumer goods and e-commerce listings with the well-educated young 50 million population, but a share stumble may be unavoidable without certified management and policy changes in second Rouhani term financial system foundations.







Equity Indices’ Consumer Consummation
2017 August 10 by admin

Posted in: General Emerging Markets
With both core and frontier stock markets up double-digits through mid-year index providers like S&P Dow Jones have rolled out fresh benchmarks with traditional ones “quite limited” for investment outperformance. Broad gauges are “highly correlated” as S&P’s BMI beat the MSCI by 30 percent over the past 15 years with a 435 percent gain. South Korea is excluded from the former as a developed market while its 15% weight with lagging results has been a drag on the latter. The two also differ since MSCI has no small-cap stocks, often consumer and health care-related, which have advanced 170 percent more than mid and large-cap peers concentrated in banks and exporters over the period. The gap has been particularly wide the past decade as personal discretionary and staples outpaced energy listings by 80 percent, with a lead across all regions. Among the main geographies Latin America and Europe have big natural resource exposure as in Brazil and Russia, while Asia features information technology. To better capture the consumer play Dow Jones has introduced a global Titans 30 index with top representation from South Africa, China, India and Mexico. Korean and Taiwanese firms are outside since their sales are predominantly to industrial economies. Its volatility-adjusted return exceeded overall industry measures back-tested to the early 2000s, and dozens of additional dedicated country, sector, and size indices are available for sophisticated managers, according to the report.

Private equity has also evolved as emerging market allocation increased nine times since 2005 to over $550 billion at end-2016, a Preqin industry survey reveals. Fundraising last year was below 2015, with buyout and venture capital deals moving in opposite directions. Despite major country economic and world geopolitical challenges long-term middle class and young working class growth remain drivers even if returns lag Europe and North America vehicles. Funds have begun to distribute more capital than called, with net cash flow at records. In the past five years activity has slowed from the peak when EM was half the PE total. In 2016 it was 12 percent with almost 200 fund closes for $45 billion. Through 2017 so far the numbers are 60 and $15 billion, respectively, for one-fifth of global raising. Asia has been 80 percent of the sum the last decade followed by Latin America, and diversified mandates are just 5 percent. By category growth and venture capital funds dominate in volume, but buyout types have attracted 40 percent of the action in recent years. Only 15 percent of general partners could reach completion within six months, and three-quarters are based in developing economies for easier analysis and marketing. Four out of the five largest launched since 2008 are from China with combined $50 billion in commitments. The investor base comprises almost 900 institutions, over one-quarter from Greater China, and banks, corporations and portfolio managers are the majority with venture capital preference. Funds of Funds apply more in developed markets, and according to a survey of 200 respondents China and India will be the favored near-term destinations, while Central Europe and the Middle East will stay sidelined. This April phone company Didi Chuxing set a venture mark with a $5. 5 billion transaction, with mainland and foreign partners ringing the right tone.

Syrian Refugees’ Turkey Turnkey Track
2017 August 3 by admin

Posted in: MENA
A three month study of Syrian refugee entrepreneurs in Turkey, conducted by nonprofit research groups with Canadian support and titled “another side to the story,” estimates over 10000 formal and informal startups the past five years with the former accounting for almost $350 million in investment. Three-quarters are “micro” with fewer than ten employees, with average annual revenue close to half a million dollars dominated by retail and wholesale trade. Owners are well educated with 70 percent holding at least university degrees, and the same portion intends to keep existing operations after the war ends. Language and inability to access credit or official procurement bids are major barriers, but most of the 250 companies surveyed are positive about the future with asset purchase and expansion plans. Almost two million refugees are working age and 90 percent are in urban areas, with the paper focused on Istanbul and the border town of Gaziantep. Public spending for the crisis, mostly funded internally, has been under 1 percent of GDP, and the influx spurred offsetting consumption and infrastructure contributions. Humanitarian exports quadrupled Gaziantep’s trade to $400 million from 2011-15, as prices fell due to increased immigration providing underground labor. While Turkey’s economy is almost ten times the size of other refugee hosts Jordan and Lebanon combined, integration has been “challenging” with Syrians getting only round 15 percent of 75000 authorized foreigner work permits in 2016, with the remaining hundreds of thousands in informal jobs with minimal pay and protection. From January-April 2017 675 new companies started and the Syrian share is 40 percent of all non-resident control, with the southeast and western cities emerging as hubs, according to the leading association of business executives. Owners overwhelmingly found registration “easy” even though only 10 percent have Turkish partners. One-quarter are in manufacturing where the country is competitive in food, machinery and textile exports. Female entrepreneurs concentrate in services including catering, tourism and translation. The typical stay before launch was almost two and a half years, and 70 percent previously ran operations in Syria where they reported three times more staff.

Over 80 percent have home country passports instead of “temporary protection” status that facilitates internal and external travel. One third of owners speak no Turkish, and three-quarters use the internet for marketing. Almost all respondents had bank accounts but they reported difficulties securing guarantees and credit cards and few took out loans, as compared with 40 percent of all small and midsize firms in national statistics. The vast majority do not receive development or training help from outside organizations, despite initiatives by chambers of commerce, the UN and World Bank. Legal-accounting and technology advice are priorities, but skilled employee availability is sufficient although 15 percent worry about retention with resettlement often shifting personnel. Joint arrangements are increasingly considered permanent as firms envision a long-term presence should peace and reconstruction loom anytime soon. The report urges higher formalization, work permits and company refugee quotas and a dedicated network of language and professional instruction. It recommends a senior executive mentor program and outreach to the Syrian diaspora in the region and overseas to stimulate venture capital relationships despite frayed diplomatic ones.

Rave Universal Returns’ Scarce Selectivity
2017 August 3 by admin

Posted in: General Emerging Markets
All emerging market debt and equity asset classes rallied in the first half, replicating advance economy minimum yield flight in 2016 despite marginal central bank benchmark rate increases and reflecting slight economic growth and earnings improvement over original forecasts. Stock markets outperformed after a multi-year funk with the MSCI core and frontier indices up 17% and 12%, respectively, while local government bond gains at 8% outstripped external sovereign and corporate ones around 5%. Resurgent fund flows at over $100 billion combined according to data trackers, a large portion from exchange-listed ETFs, have channeled momentum since the end of the first quarter when a brief global scare from the new US administration’s trade and immigration policies, which could hit China and Mexico in particular, faded into the background. The dollar retreated from previous highs and commodity prices stabilized in the aftermath, and retail and institutional investors then poured money in with scant geographic and asset class distinction. The second half will determine if markets can begin again to rise and fall on their own virtues in their own long-delayed “normalization” process, coinciding with the 20th anniversary of Asia’s and a decade since the US and Europe-led world financial meltdown.

As in the mania that preceded the late 2000s crash, stock market gains in the big BRIC economies mirrored the MSCI result, with Russia the only loser, down 15%. China and India were each ahead 20%, while Brazil was essentially flat with a 2% uptick. Brazil and Russia are out of recession but still grapple with stagflation. China’s 6. 5% growth and steady currency and reserves were on target before the upcoming Party Congress, but the well-telegraphed incremental inclusion of “A” shares in the gauge was also a catalyst. India’s GDP increase was the same as China’s, and its price-earnings ratio toward 20 is five points above the emerging market average, but it is considered a structural reform standout despite lagging a generation behind peers, and the mixed record so far with recent months’ large banknote elimination and just-launched national tax unification. Including South Africa in the group, as a charter member of the BRICS Bank now in operation, contributes another 5% plus bump but reinforces the broad narrative of ambivalent economic and political fundamentals and model change. The IMF and World Bank tweaked the developing world growth forecast to 4. 5% this year but warned about fiscal deficits, monetary strain from bank deleveraging, and balance of payments pressure from voluntary and hidden capital outflows. They suggested another period of business and financial sector opening and deepening was overdue with reactivation of stalled concepts like state bank and enterprise privatization.

The BRIC rebound has likewise been instrumental in lifting external corporate and sovereign bonds. Issuance was a record $100 billion and $250 billion in the respective segments through end-June, at average spreads around 300 basis points. China’s giant state-run and real estate companies, with tighter onshore access, have been 40% of corporates and Brazil’s Petrobras, the biggest individual debtor, has bounced off last year’s bottom after ratings downgrades and defaults hit Brazilian names broadly. Despite lingering international sanctions, Russia has returned in force to both markets, and a spate of new and resumed entrants, including Argentina and Gulf countries lifted lackluster traditional sovereign activity. Local bond average yields over 6% sparked a renewed carry trade wave among fast-moving investment funds borrowing in low-volatility industrial world currencies, a phenomenon largely absent the past decade. For more exotic destinations in Africa and elsewhere, IMF program negotiation resurfaced as an allocation driver, with Ghana, Zambia, Cameroon and Mongolia among popular bets shunned in the absence of additional official support.

With a nascent global bond selloff already arriving in July, EM fixed-income in particular could correct across the board, and the pure valuation argument for equities is increasingly questionable with profits hurting in many sectors outside world value chain connected consumer goods and technology. Local currency debt, and smaller and frontier country shares, should be able to hold if investors reflect and differentiate in the space in a long-term successful strategy, rather than risk disappointment with an overriding narrative of modest growth pickup and taper tantrum sequel avoidance.



US Development Policy’s Demolition Crew Din
2017 July 27 by admin

Posted in: General Emerging Markets
With the Trump Administration proposing 30 percent bilateral and multilateral development assistance cuts, and wide ranging yet undefined reorganization with management consultants first scouring the State Department, Washington researchers have scrambled to offer their own comprehensive reforms for executive and legislative consideration. The Center for Global Development unveiled a “practical vision” with over a dozen priority items to be coordinated across twenty agencies led by AID and more focused arms like OPIC and the Millennium Challenge Corporation, despite total spending at half the OECD average 0. 3 percent of GDP. Four thematic areas—fragility, inclusion, health and humanitarian aid—would drive future interventions and strategy and offer a government-wide integrated approach. For fragile and transitional countries, AID’s traditional competitive bidding, typically a 2-year cycle, could be waived to allow quick program and personnel deployment. The surge would come under a new operation after previous attempts like State’s Conflict and Stabilization Bureau proved inadequate. The report recommends joint AID-MCC programs since the latter’s 5-year country compacts can frame broader economic policy change, and the former could deploy its credit authority to foster private financial flows. It adds that agreements could be extended indefinitely on steady governance and inclusion improvement since few new eligible candidates appear annually. OPIC should be expanded into a full-service funding organization despite the initial Trump budget seeking abolition, with the existing range stretched to public equity investment and technical assistance, while enterprise ventures promoted elsewhere are transferred to its control. Disaster relief remains AID’s comparative advantage, although refugee humanitarian duties should be split with the State Department’s migration bureau. Food, which has to be shipped by US carriers under outdated law, should not be the Agriculture Department’s responsibility and reforms should focus on cheaper local supply and distribution not distorting traditional markets. Reporting and strategy should be streamlined and shared across a common platform, and a comprehensive review of UN and multilateral development bank contributions can weigh detailed costs and benefits for billions of dollars that may be better allocated under alternative arrangements.

The CSIS think tank convened another bipartisan task force on the subject, with the reminder that foreign aid is just 1 percent of the budget or around $40 billion, while the original enabling act is over 50 years old and over 20 government units are now involved with congress layering on hundreds of earmarks and information mandates. A main purpose is international economic partnership to create US jobs and sales, and the group warns about repeating the mid-1990s overhaul experience, with large layoffs “crippling” AID leadership and technical ranks. It notes that today’s complex challenges include forced migration, pandemics, terrorism, political dysfunction and transnational crime, as private capital flows to developing countries are five times official support. Canada will soon join the rest of the G-7 in launching its own full-fledged development finance arm, leaving the US alone with its lagging OPIC structure. Middle income recipients should graduate over time, and development bank burden sharing must be clearly defined after a 15-year period of “benign neglect. ” The number of sectors should be narrowed following the base realignment parallel at the Pentagon, and short and long-term pools should stay separate with management from a dedicated career corps of specialists not cultivated under current work force planning, according to the blueprint.

Asean’s Ambivalent Crisis Anniversary Anchors
2017 July 27 by admin

Posted in: Asia
The two-decade anniversary of the Asian financial crisis originating in Thailand and quickly spreading to Indonesia, Malaysia and elsewhere was marked quietly by regional investors and officials, as they acknowledged comeback since that grim period but were wary of new debt and capital flow risks despite healthy first half securities market results. The IMF, which extended $40 billion in rescue programs, noted the pain from broken currency pegs and widespread corporate bankruptcy and average GDP growth at roughly half the previous 7-8% pace, while commending foreign reserve accumulation and financial sector cleanup and regulatory strengthening. The episode prompted local currency bond market expansion under the auspices of the Asian Development Bank, and bilateral and multilateral swap line arrangements with the Chiang Mai Initiative. Franklin Templeton emerging market chief Mark Mobius commented about sovereign and business “harsh lessons” from untenable debt loads at the same time that the Bruegel think tank tracking these trends put ASEAN corporate leverage at 100% in terms of total liabilities to equity, over half of it short term. The Chinese ratio is more extreme at 175%, and although ASEAN’s position is “sound” the Brussels-based monitor stipulated that trade and funding shocks could reprise crisis-era qualms.

Thailand’s ruling generals also hesitated to cite the occasion as a possible reminder of democracy loss since, as its MSCI Index rose 9% through the first half. Since passage of a constitutional referendum a year ago, future election plans remain murky and the army’s self-proclaimed reputation for integrity was dented by a major human-trafficking scandal involving neighboring Myanmar’s Rohingya refugees. The new King has now assumed full control of the estimated $30 billion Crown Property portfolio, which includes stakes in blue-chip stock exchange listings Siam Cement and Siam Commercial Bank.