No More Learning

Basic health and sanitation are lacking and one-quarter of adults have HIV-AIDS. Aid and remittances drive the economy, with textiles also contributing under US free trade treatment. Polls may likewise be imminent in Zimbabwe after rumors that President Mugabe was on his deathbed during a visit to Singapore. He has vowed to dissolve the shaky coalition and bring one last victory to the Zanu-PF party, which has enforced the indigenization law with community bequests from financial and mining companies trying to clarify the investment picture.

Latin America’s Raging Resilience Reservations
2012 June 5 by admin

Posted in: Latin America/Caribbean
After repeated reassurances by private and official bodies that the region was well-positioned for 4 percent GDP growth and capital market outperformance in the face of US, Eurozone and Chinese wobbles, other countries followed early fallen BRIC Brazil into downgrades and selloffs, especially as active Spanish bank troubles dominated headlines. Brazilian fund data show that bond outflows from Western and Japanese investors have joined equities at the bottom of the core universe index heap, with no end in sight to central bank rate reductions on barely positive economic expansion. The institution has intervened heavily to prevent the real reaching 2 per dollar with inflation transmission already over 5 percent. Fiscal policy has been tweaked to support consumer demand with tax exemptions while keeping the 3 percent of GDP primary surplus target. Banks have been urged to extend credit despite rising personal loan arrears as deals for smaller intermediaries reliant on wholesale lines have gone astray and may require state rescues. Industrial output remains in sad shape with agricultural exports also waning to China which is now a key destination. Mexican securities had benefited from redeployment until recently, with growth in the 3-4 percent range mirroring tepid US trends, as opinion surveys reported leftist candidate AMLO gaining ground on the PRI frontrunner in the July presidential race. Multinational PepsiCo also received direct threats from drug gangs suggesting the conflict could implicate strategic investors, and a standing central bank facility was tapped to stem peso decline. With oil prices dipping below $100/barrel PEMEX proceeds may suffer although it again hedged the risk as labor activists called on the three political parties to delay greater private opening.

Lower petroleum FDI may also hit Colombia, which has been the area darling with the US free trade pact entering force and the Santos Administration passing fiscal stability and civil war reconciliation laws. Interest rate hikes to cool consumer credit have paused and the 5 percent GDP growth forecast has been scaled back with big family-run groups increasingly following a sub-regional strategy that eyes expansion in MILA partners Chile and Peru. In the former President Pinera is under siege from university protesters and miners resisting change at government-owned Codelco, while Peruvian counterpart Humala likewise is caught in the natural resources debate crossfire after a big project compromise unraveled with environmental demonstrator deaths. Foreign investors control 60 percent of local debt and reserve requirements have been tightened to prevent rapid exit with the country as well qualifying for an IMF contingency line. Andean nervousness is due to be heightened by Venezuela’s course over the coming months, with dire health reports for president Chavez raising the odds of pre-election succession and paring the half-year success of benchmark external bonds.

Ethiopia’s Dam-Breaking Trickle
2012 June 5 by admin

Posted in: Africa
Ethiopia, which hosts a World Bank-backed commodities exchange with $1 billion in coffee and agricultural trading volume and overnight settlement often cited as a model, hosted Africa’s World Economic Forum event in new China-built and funded premises as it launched a diaspora bond for the $5 billion Grand Renaissance dam and the UK’s CDC venture arm joined with a local group to launch a $100 private equity vehicle. The bond issue follows previous efforts aimed at tapping the savings of two million expatriates at denominations as low as $50. At home banks and individuals have been the main subscribers, with government workers often exhorted to participate. GDP growth at double-digits paces the continent’s non-oil economies, although 35 percent inflation also tops neighbors due to runaway state spending and borrowing to be curbed under a 5-year “transformation program” decades-serving President Zenawi has unveiled to secure donor support after criticism of political and press intolerance. In 2010 the ruling party and its allies won over 99 percent in elections amid an opposition roundup and platform of barring foreign investment in banking, telecoms, retailing and other strategic sectors. His administration has however opened vast land tracts to commodity cultivation including to the Schulze family interests which established multinational conglomerate Newmont Mining and is the domestic partner for the PE fund. International food and beverage firms have recently completed acquisitions despite limited purchasing power with the high poverty rate. Indian companies are the largest overseas investors with a total $4. 25 billion commitment, while Saudi and Turkish projects are among the top single allocations. Gold and oils seeds are behind coffee as export earners, and education and infrastructure are core priorities of the current 5-year plan.

Officials also will press to improve rankings across a host of “Doing Business” benchmarks where they lag in the region and among low-income peers. Development Bank dominates the field but private competitors have introduced electronic payment and other innovations. Cement is controlled by family and non-state operations and tourism has attracted major global hotel chains. The country is a main target for the food security initiative organized by the G-8 and private agricultural giants at the May Camp David Summit. The US already has an active “Feed the Future” program under bilateral assistance which intends to soon emphasize small company and financial services development. In retail lending a cautionary tale may be next-door Kenya, where activity jumped one-third last year to $2 billion and has sustained a torrid pace despite central bank rate hikes to 18 percent. NPLs are modest at 5 percent of the book and residential property values continue to climb amid “bubble” talk and Nairobi bombings said to be perpetrated by Somali fighters flouting previous boundaries.

Africa’s Panoramic View Distortions
2012 June 3 by admin

Posted in: Africa
Sub-Saharan stock markets got little lift from the IMF’s latest regional GDP growth forecast which kept the 5 percent expectation for another year while cautioning about commodity, Eurozone and pan-Africa banking group risks. Through May Kenya and Nigeria climbed double-digits and Botswana, Ghana, Mauritius and Zimbabwe were flat or negative. The report hailed “new resilience” driven by underlying youthful demographics, urbanization and technology absorption across the spectrum of oil and agricultural exporters and fragile and low-income states. Government debt ratios are down to an average 40 percent of output after relief awards, and capital investment and private credit are at the 20 percent bar. Food and fuel inflation peaked last year and area CPI is again under 10 percent. Budget deficits for energy importers are at 3 percent of GDP and banks outside Nigeria and South Africa have been “insulated” from crisis-related credit and capital flow reversal. According to recent estimates almost half the continent still lives in poverty defined at $1. 25 per day in 2005 prices, and it lags on meeting the mid-decade Millennium Development Goals. Further European trade and financial deterioration could knock 0. 5 percent off growth and sub-regional spillover would be particularly felt in the South African Customs Union and elsewhere. A petroleum price shock could reverberate to both the East and West alongside “homegrown” ethnic, political and climatic ones and exchange rate and monetary policy must be prepared to quickly respond, the Fund believes. From a regulatory standpoint, 15 countries received overall passing grades on Basel Core Principle assessments but cross-border banking networks have expanded beyond oversight reach and are a “contagion channel. ” Since 2009 frontier markets have suffered portfolio outflows which as in Zambia’s case sparked a credit crunch when foreign investors exited local bonds. Nigeria alone experienced a full-fledged banking crash from a combination of domestic and overseas borrowing as 40 percent of the system was declared insolvent with NPLs at one-third the total. The central bank intervened to support institutions and sack management and a central asset-disposal agency was established which has issued bonds on its own behalf.

European groups account for 90 percent of BIS-reported liabilities, with a large affiliate presence by UK, French and Portuguese providers dating from the colonial era. They rely overwhelmingly on domestic retail deposits although project funding has been reduced under parent guidance. South Africa is an exception in depending on wholesale lines but they come from contractual savings pools at home. Capital, liquidity and profitability score well but stress in multi-country operations like Stanbic, Ecobank and Bank of Africa could spread in the absence of tighter disclosure and supervision as together they control one-third of deposits in a dozen locations for sweeping vistas.

Corporate Bonds’ Defiant Default Position
2012 June 3 by admin

Posted in: General Emerging Markets
At the same a Brazilian meatpacker postponed a repayment following formal default by an electricity distributor and Chinese authorities came to the rescue of a squeezed domestic issuer as property companies again experienced a spike in external yield, a Vietnamese bank indicated global bond durability with a debut two years after state shipbuilder Vinashin reneged on a syndicated loan and the sovereign rating was downgraded. The majority government-held Vietinbank raised $250 million in 5-year paper at a 8. 25 percent yield and competitors plan to follow with the scarcity of dollar funding onshore on continued high inflation and monetary policy swings. Loan-deposit ratios exceed 100 percent, and the central bank has resumed rate cutting to deliver 6 percent GDP growth. Inflation may halve to the 10 percent range and the trade deficit may shrink by the same magnitude to 5 percent of GDP. Equity investors have expressed enthusiasm for property rebound as the index remains a frontier standout after a terrible 2011. Officials predict only 3 percent currency depreciation and with aid, FDI and remittance inflows international reserves should improve 30 percent to almost $20 billion. The CEMBI spread has touched 400 basis points but primary activity has been untrammeled at a record $125 billion through May, overwhelmingly skewed toward Asia and Latin America and quasi-sovereign and top-notch borrowers. However with Kazakh bank BTA’s second and other Asian defaults such as Sino Forest the nominal total so far at over $6 billion surpasses all of 2011. The net ratings trend across industries and regions is toward downgrades, and big houses like ING have recently raised restructuring projections with $75 billion in bonds from 125 names trading at distressed 1000 point-plus levels. In a worst-case scenario the default rate could near 2009’s 14 percent, especially with extension of the 50 percent $100 billion cross-border loan drop recorded in the first quarter.

European institutions under debt and regulatory crunches have systematically retreated on a geographic and product line basis. New Asian and Latin American participants have moved into the void, but development banks are again preparing to offer emergency trade finance in response to small exporter requests. Leveraged loans have collapsed, and $175 billion in principal repayments come due by year-end. Spanish banks have reduced Americas exposure and sold off operations, with the private pension franchise now on the block. Chinese and Japanese groups have assumed export credit mandates but the former favor strategic state enterprises while the latter seek temporary margin pick-up over flat domestic portfolios. With the combination of pressures corporate bond secondary prices have flagged the past month and entering the summer lull advisers recommend that management consider selective buybacks to preserve parade formation.

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The BRICS’ Wobbly Wall Wreckage
2012 May 29 by admin

Posted in: General Emerging Markets
The BRICS club with new entrant South Africa headed into the first half close with declining GDP growth, fund flow and stock market numbers as the Eurozone and other external events combined with lingering domestic damage previously downplayed by global investors. Chinese equities are up slightly but low valuations, an increase in FII quotas, and reserve requirement cuts have not changed sentiment hinging on currency drift and output reduction to the 8 percent range. Bank lending is flat on softer exports and housing auto and steel demand and fiscal stimulus has shifted from open-ended infrastructure projects to targeted consumer energy-related focus and may embrace long-delayed tax reforms. Fixed-asset outlays are off the traditional torrid pace as the central government tries to sort out burden-sharing with indebted localities and decision-making is postponed until the scheduled October leadership reshuffle. In financial services negotiators agreed in the US Strategic and Economic Dialogue to 49 percent local broker and investment bank ownership as state giant ICBC soon after got Federal Reserve permission for a California acquisition. Institutions are following customers in the “go out” natural resource policy and for their own account to fill the trade credit gap left by European escape and offset anemic deposit growth at home diverted to wealth management products. They are looking across the strait with the re-election of Taiwanese President Ma who promised during the campaign to expand a commercial cooperation accord. Both sides are considering turning Pingan Island into a duty-free zone, but the President has been sidetracked by disputes within his party on beef imports, capital gains tax and power price rises.

Brazilian shares went negative early and are down almost 10 percent in dollar terms as the real fell to 2 per dollar as China’s commodity appetite wanes and the consumer comes under pressure from rising debt as the central bank has slashed the benchmark rate to 9 percent with hallowed guaranteed savings accounts likewise subject to diminished returns. This year’s GDP leap may not even match 2011’s 2. 7 percent and inflation expectations toward 5 percent are at the upper bound of the target on likely currency pass-through. Banks have been hammered by higher NPLs at 8 percent of the total, and state pressure to narrow margins and maintain lines to strategic industries in the run-up to the World Cup and Olympics extravaganzas. Loyalists to President Dilma have been placed at the helm of Petrobras and Vale, and Chevron executives under civil and criminal investigation for an oil spill have been ordered to surrender their passports as Workers Party members sympathetic to Argentina’s takeover call for greater official control. In Russia capital flight continues at $10 billion/month and in India exporters have been ordered to transfer proceeds as the rupee tumbles beneath 55/dollar after a ratings downgrade. South African rand depreciation has also been steep in its role as a liquid asset class proxy and sub-par growth in a class by itself at half the continent average.

The EBRD’s Muddling Through Muddle
2012 May 29 by admin

Posted in: Europe
The EBRD tapped a UK civil servant for the helm in a break with two decades of European continent executive domination as it assumed a “muddling through” scenario of uneven single-currency crisis mitigation with 3 percent member country average GDP growth this year. The Southeast with direct trade and banking ties to Greece will be weakest, while commodity exporters in the CIS will see a 5 percent uptick. The Baltics beat Central Europe with Estonia a standout, while the newest Mediterranean adherents will again be clobbered by near-recessions. All transition economies are feeling the Eurozone debacle mainly through the current account with net FDI remaining positive with the exception of Russia. However cross-border bank deleveraging is “largely unabated” in its view and triggered real credit contraction in both the EU and Ukraine. Headline inflation remains a concern in Turkey in particular, and the region lags Latin America and Asia in fiscal prudence and reserve accumulation. In monetary policy the ECB will continue to be “supportive” although big bank insolvencies would test it under a “worsening situation. ” The Middle East is experiencing its own political and geopolitical shocks which may indefinitely impede recovery and raise oil prices. The Central European Four have front-line Euro-crisis exposure despite Slovakia only fully in the zone in addition to its heavy auto industry dependence. Slovenia, where the stock market is off 10 percent, is another overlooked user with bank recapitalization, pension and competitiveness challenges which aggravate the modest public debt load. The Czech Republic is in recession as the rotating government coalition tries to sustain fiscal reforms, and Poland’s central bank has raised rates and intervened on behalf of the zloty with a $30 billion IMF backup credit line awaiting activation. In Hungary, the negotiator for a Fund package was replaced with a confidant of the prime minister, who introduced a transaction tax to succeed the special bank levy in a further move delaying compromise.

With the leu at a record low and a caretaker administration in place for the next six months Romania may tap its standby funds and request an increment. It and Bulgaria have a large Greek bank presence as the ECB will no longer accept collateral from that group to access liquidity facilities. Scandinavian bank commitment to the Baltics has not prevented defaults and runs in Latvia and Lithuania. External bond markets have reopened for the two, but domestic demand still suffers from years of “internal devaluation” from austerity shifts. The EBRD points out that stability and exchange rate “normalization” has taken root in Belarus with Russian aid amid the surrounding turmoil after 5 percent growth last year. Nonetheless inflation is 30 percent and Western sanctions are in place against the authoritarian Lukashenko regime which has long been stuck in a singular muddle.

Asia Bonds’ Chiang Mai Churn
2012 May 24 by admin

Posted in: Asia
The Asian Development Bank annual meeting in Manila combined years of market-building and crisis fighting with a doubling of the Chiang Mai currency swap arrangement to $240 billion that will also entail Asean+3 country mutual debt purchases. It was hailed by Japan’s Finance Ministry as a step toward a full-fledged Asia Monetary Fund even as it came forward with a $60 billion contribution toward the IMF’s $350 billion expansion the month before. The signatories also agreed to allow greater access without any conventional multilateral lending program in place and to hasten the pace of reserve diversification for non-dollar balance and allocation to regional infrastructure projects estimated at over $10 trillion the next decade. Participants advocated competition as well for the World Bank through a proposed BRICs startup which was referred to a working group at the recent New Delhi summit. European bank trade finance shrinkage was likewise on the agenda with an ADB facility preparing to fill gaps particularly acute at smaller exporters. The April bond market update cited modest 7 percent growth to $5. 7 trillion in nine East Asian locations in 2011, with the corporate space up 15 percent while the government one was relatively flat. China and Korea absorb all but $1 trillion of the amount outstanding, with the area’s bond-GDP ratio approaching 55 percent. Vietnam and Malaysia were among the rapid advancers as contractual savings institutions like insurance and pension funds lifted holdings across-the-board. With a bad last quarter overall issuance slipped 10 percent to $3. 5 trillion, about one-quarter of the total ex-China. State agency and Treasury instrument activity in particular declined over the period. Indonesia and the Philippines saw triple-digit corporate takeoff as banks in the former ceded ground under Basel capital adequacy strictures and the latter benefited from assigned sovereign investment-grade status.

Foreign ownership “leveled off” according to the tally although respective government paper shares rose to 10 percent and 25 percent in Thailand and Malaysia. Short-term engagement rose in Indonesia although it fell by 80 percent for central bank bills after curbs were imposed. Half the markets tracked concentrated maturities at 1-3 years, as yield curves flattened last year on lower inflation and that trend has continued thus far in 2012. Corporate yields have widened for the high-yield segment, while hard-currency external issuance at $30 billion through Q1 compares with $75 billion for all of 2011. The Pan-Asian index gained 7 percent as equity markets were off double digits, although asset class performance has shifted this year. Countries have begun to launch dedicated platforms for small enterprise bonds and consider policy and practical measures to boost regional cross-border exposure at just 7. 5 percent of the total portfolio as initiatives inch ahead.

Lebanese Banks’ Damascus Road Rut
2012 May 24 by admin

Posted in: MENA
Lebanese shares tipped into negative position as US Treasury and foreign counterpart enforcers aggravated Syrian deposit outflow stress with warnings against commercial embargo and regime asset freeze circumvention which could violate UN action. The currency is off 40 percent against the dollar on the formal market and GDP contraction is estimated at 6 percent this year without oil and tourism revenue. Banks listed on the Damascus Stock Exchange reported 20 percent loan shrinkage in 2011 before sanctions reached full force. Money has moved to neighboring Beirut and Baghdad as well as Dubai amid accusations that institutions could be aiding laundering after absorbing losses from state and private company exposure in Syria. First quarter Lebanese banking system statistics showed continued deposit leakage overall as an almost $1 billion Eurobond was eagerly subscribed to sustain earnings. The economy will expand 3 percent according to the IMF, with the current account deficit stuck at 15 percent of GDP and again reliant on offsetting remittances. With the fiscal gap unchanged public debt/output is at 135 percent, and with privatization plans on hold with the tentative coalition government tax rises have been proposed to narrow the chasm. Although the prime minister is a moderate former business executive, Iranian ally Hezbollah is a dominant force at a time when tensions are flaring on the other border with conservative parties in Israel brandishing military options against Tehran’s nuclear program. The administration is also preparing for higher food and fuel prices as it tries to preserve social calm which can suddenly shift into ethnic strife.

In the Maghreb bourses are likewise off slightly as Tunisia despite a successful Islamic party-led transition continues to suffer heavy Eurozone trade, investment, and visitor and remittance fallout with a switch to Gulf buyers for debt placement. GDP growth is a meager 2 percent and with a 7. 5 percent current account gap reserves are down to three months’ imports. Qatar has agreed to $1. 5 billion in support and with a US guarantee a $600 million external bond return may come before the next major Eurobond redemption early next year. With unreformed subsidies the fiscal deficit may nearly double to 6 percent of GDP, and officials just completed consultations with the World Bank on its near-term involvement and will also turn to the African Development Bank for $2 billion in assistance. Morocco as the sole core universe component was down 5 percent through May on lingering street protests against the King’s proposed political remedy of additional parliamentary authority and poor rains for the agricultural harvest. A sovereign ratings downgrade looms on the over 50 percent debt-output ratio and retail lending has spurted at a double-digit annual pace with signs that recent plantings could wither alongside the 5 percent NPL number.

Serbia’s European Solidarity Schism
2012 May 23 by admin

Posted in: Europe
Serbian voters joined French and Greek ones at national polls with both President Tadic’s party and the opposition espousing pro-EU views in a mutual post-independence first as the initial application was accepted by Brussels. As the last accused war criminals await trial at The Hague the race focused on the economy with flat GDP growth and over 5 percent inflation with the stock market off almost 10 percent on the MSCI index through April. FDI has been on hold after the opening of a big Fiat plant and the central bank has spent EUR 750 million or 5 percent of reserves intervening and paused with interest rate reduction to stem currency depreciation. To inject liquidity into the two thirds foreign-owned banking system reserve ratios have been relaxed instead, as outsize fiscal and current account deficits at respective 5 percent and 10 percent of GDP marks have upended an IMF post-crisis successor program since February. Budget performance has lagged ex-Yugoslavia neighbor Macedonia which tapped the prequalified Fund credit line with a gap half the size, and is due to get a 7 percent commercial loan from Deutsche Bank in the near future at the same time the lender has been paring exposure to historical rival Greece. Growth and inflation there are both at 2 percent, with shares slightly up in local terms. Kosovo, whose fate had been an issue in previous Serbian contests, has approached the IMF too for a EUR 100 million facility after the original one derailed. It is on a path to full self-governance after declaring autonomy five years ago and receiving bilateral and multilateral aid. Officials adopted the euro and diaspora remittances from Germany and Switzerland support domestic consumption and coverage of the 20 percent of GDP current account hole.

The fiscal side has slipped with telecoms privatization delay but the public debt ceiling is capped at 40 percent of output by law. Spending has focused on social needs and infrastructure including a new highway to Albania, and 3-month T-bills have been introduced for domestic borrowing. Capital adequacy is high in the internationally-dominated banking sector with non-performing loans at 5 percent of the portfolio and a revised deposit insurance scheme in course. Competitiveness is an immediate priority with the state’s low ranking in the World Bank’s Doing Business reference. Assistance providers urge Pristina to follow the example of Romania in keeping to a structural reform agenda despite labor and political obstacles. The government there fell again on a no-confidence vote, and replacements vow to honor Fund-EU commitments even as the leu dropped to 4. 5 to the euro. Credit expansion remains weak on NPLs at 15 percent of the total as cross-border network connections break.

Egypt’s Debatable Post-Depreciation Direction
2012 May 23 by admin

Posted in: MENA
Egyptian stocks retraced their 40 percent YTD gain as the two main presidential candidates held a televised debate, the Saudis came through with a $1 billion loan as IMF talks progressed on a facility triple that sum, and monthly reserve depletion was interrupted after an extended string halving the cushion although pound forwards still assume a 20 percent devaluation. The Fund team has reiterated the need for broad-based political and technical support for a program expected to tackle the sensitive issues of currency regime and social subsidies, the latter already left untouched after the parliament rejected military-appointed cabinet planned spending cuts to reverse the 10 percent of GDP budget deficit. Borrowing costs have become prohibitive at 15 percent for 6-month paper, and auctions regularly fail as banks demur with assets concentrated 40 percent in Treasuries against NPLs at one-tenth of portfolios. On the external side erratic Suez Canal receipts and slumping tourism will send the current account hole to 2. 5 percent of GDP as FDI stays away pending the outcome of investigations into previous dealings which have brought re-nationalizations and criminal charges. In the financial sector Italy’s Intesa Sanpaolo is under fire for allegedly taking a stake in Bank of Alexandria on preferential terms. With many listed companies closely associated with the Mubarak tenure, foreign investors have refused to chase the rally with fund data tracker EPFR reporting negligible allocation. They also cite diplomatic squabbling with longtime peace partner Israel, as a gas pipeline agreement was suspended over attacks and payment claims. The tension has contributed to uneven sentiment in Tel Aviv, with the exchange advance one-fifth of Cairo’s. The Netanyahu coalition briefly fractured over confrontation with Iran and early elections were set before centrist party Kadima joined the alignment. With the renewed mandate the government is due to press its economic “deconcentration” agenda following popular protest and special committee recommendations that family-owned conglomerates divest non-core holdings to ensure greater competition and affordable financial services access.

However the push coincides with tighter prudential standards on mortgage lending urged by the IMF during a recent stress-test exercise. Consumption is also dampened by unemployment recalculated at 7 percent under revised methodology and a shakier shekel against the dollar with the central bank benchmark rate kept at 2. 5 percent. Foreign investors have exited local government bonds on the yield and currency calculus and imposition of withholding tax, as banks have parked additional funds after cutting global exposure including to Europe’s PIIGS where they retrenched 15 percent. Athens after national elections failed in initial efforts to construct its own unity formation as non-traditional parties won favor with cross-border private bond links an ancient sacrament.

Malaysia’s Doctor Order Dismissal
2012 May 16 by admin

Posted in: Asia
Malaysian shares tried to preserve modest gains as thousands poured into Kuala Lumpur’s central square to call for an end to political detentions and demand a fair contest between opposition parties and the long-dominant BN, which hopes to regain a two-thirds majority in elections likely to be called soon by Prime Minister Najib. His predecessor Mahathir continues to be an active influence and has urged “new blood” to limit government abuses he claims subverted the original intent of pro-Malay economic preferences. The minority Chinese and Indian communities have protested discrimination and rival groups led by Anwar Ibrahim, who has twice been acquitted of criminal charges, have seized on popular anger to insist on the removal of post-independence business and security provisions. GDP growth has revived on a combination of better electronics exports and domestic demand, but the former depends on the global end-user and supply chain cycle while the latter may waver with near-term energy subsidy reductions to narrow the persistent budget deficit. Banks have also been instructed by regulators to slow breakneck housing lending as prices jumped 10 percent the past year. With inflation again on the agenda from rising utility costs and credit, the central bank has recently allowed the currency to appreciate slightly without intervention, as foreign inflows into local bonds remain at 5 billion ringitt monthly. It has also encouraged Islamic sukuk placement from the region and Middle East targeting domestic buyers as the financial standards board housed in its building further promotes common instruments and oversight worldwide. Officials point out that food and fuel prices are unlikely to spurt with the peninsula’s rich commodities endowments, although plantation company listings have lost favor with a pause in palm oil values.

Indian cultural and corporate ties remain close as growth there slowed to 6 percent in the last quarter and the benchmark interest rate was slashed 50 basis points on a settled inflation reading. The fiscal and current account gaps continue to deteriorate as the budget statement raised the specter of additional retroactive foreign investor taxation, spurring a sovereign ratings outlook shift to negative. Portfolio equity outflows have resurfaced in part because of difficulties in mutual fund joint ventures with Fidelity deciding after asset and distribution limits to exit altogether. A long-awaited new pension scheme will fix management fees and prohibit insurance company clients that are a logical fit elsewhere. T. Rowe Price has been embroiled in disputes over personnel and advertising since taking a stake in the former UTI monopoly. Stock exchange relations with overseas institutions will be tested by the promise of direct individual entry and an activist holder fight against the Coal India selloff that favored state bidders in an operation underscoring the patient’s tentative health.

The Andes’ Anti- Capital Capers
2012 May 16 by admin

Posted in: Latin America/Caribbean
Bolivia’s prospects for an inaugural sovereign bond previewed at the IADB annual meeting were undermined by President Morales’ May Day custom of utility nationalization as Spanish company Red’s operations were commandeered by soldiers following similar action against UK and French multinationals in 2010. His popularity has dipped to new lows and the timing coincides with Argentina’s high-profile oil producer takeover, further consumer and banking sector targeting in Venezuela, and the imposition of dual reserve requirements and additional set-asides on foreign currency loans in Peru. Ecuador too has threatened new moves against privately-owned media after the Correa administration ordered divestures from family-controlled groups. Peru’s central bank had been intervening aggressively to keep the sol/dollar rate around 2. 7 drawing on record reserves of $55 billion. 30 percent of deposits are in greenbacks and short-term bonds are majority foreign-held, and limits on overseas credit were extended to longer-maturity 3-year credit under the clampdown. Commodity exports and FDI continue to set highs after mining controversies early in President Humala’s term. Neighboring project developers have entered as North American, European and Asian competitors turn wary, with three Brazilian firms recently investing $8. 5 billion in gas and chemical ventures in the poorer south. The government claims they will create 50,000 jobs in line with the pledge that natural resources benefit rural communities. GDP growth is expected at a continent-leading 5.
5 percent with inflation within the 1-3 percent band although at the upper reaches as the benchmark rate stays just above 4 percent. Good business and retail sentiment readings will offset continued delay in the high-profile $5 billion Conga scheme which was referred to an international technical review commission after environmental protests. Through April stock market performance aided by the Mila cross-trading facility has exceeded the core 11 percent MSCI result, while external bonds have mirrored regional top-grade levels.

The runaway EMBI climber continues to be Venezuela, where President Chavez was noticeably mute on May Day as he endured another round of cancer treatment amid rumors the Foreign Minister may be his designated successor going into October elections with the opposition candidate only behind 5 points in some opinion surveys. The minimum wage was hiked 30 percent as price controls cap inflation at 25 percent. Banks were instructed to buy special purpose agricultural bonds, and debt issuance beyond the current $20 billion ceiling was authorized to manage the fiscal deficit and exchange rate. The unified currency trading platform only registers $20 million in daily turnover on administrative difficulties and new development partners like South Korea which will finance $10 billion in infrastructure cite it as a bilateral obstacle as dealings seek to diversify from the dollar amid the looming span for a top departure.

Iceland’s Dangling Recovery Bait
2012 May 13 by admin

Posted in: Europe
Years after initiating developed Europe’s resort to IMF and bilateral official rescue Iceland on 3 percent GDP growth from fishing and tourism earnings repaid 2013 obligations early and regained investment-grade status form all three main rating agencies, lifting thinly-traded bonds and stocks. Consumption also improved on household debt restructuring progress which has spurred real estate values, although the big legacy commercial banks from the crash still have 25 percent NPL ratios and court rulings on inflation and foreign exchange-indexed instruments could aggravate the burden. The currency has been steady against the dollar and euro on capital controls which by law will last through the end of next year, with the central bank mounting occasional interventions from its $9 billion in reserves. Inflation has subsided from the 6 percent range on commodity and wage demands and the current account is in modest surplus. External debt could drop to 150 percent of GDP by mid-decade, and liability management could be aided by another planned Eurobond tap in the coming months. Despite a primary surplus, budget balance is elusive with social welfare and local government funding commitments, according to the IMF’s latest Article IV picture. Monetary policy should also be tightened in advance of “gradual” capital account re-opening, it further recommended. Corporate debt equivalent to half of economic output has already been written off and independent supervisors are now monitoring bank health with capital and liquidity positions still a concern, and the state mortgage lender in bad shape. The experience offers “key lessons” for European countries that subsequently entered fiscal adjustment programs, including the importance of protecting vulnerable income groups and imposing burden sharing on private creditors. However numerous risks linger in the Fund’s view with the European Free Trade Association due to decide whether the Icesave non-resident reimbursements violate deposit insurance directives and the imminent prospect of large onshore capital outflows with even incremental liberalization.

At the opposite end of regional arrangements, Ukraine has not met gas pricing and other conditions to unblock multilateral assistance as a Eurobond return was indefinitely postponed and Russia’s VTB bank may not renew a $2 billion loan after June. Foreign reserves are down to $30 billion or 3 months’ imports as the central bank tries to maintain the 8/dollar hyrvnia value on a doubled current account deficit as a portion of GDP. Local government paper yields are at 15 percent and euro-denominated alternatives have been introduced to sustain appetite. Overseas banks that control almost half the system have slashed operations, with a recent S&P report citing “extremely high” credit risk with loans/deposits in excess of 150 percent. Opposition party chief Tymoshenko and allies have been jailed on corruption charges as President Yanukovych tries to skirt international condemnation and default until October parliamentary elections likely prompt more eruptions.



Pakistan’s Symbolic Strength Feats
2012 May 13 by admin

Posted in: Asia
Pakistani shares led Asia through April with an over 20 percent advance as the government looks to finish its term with leader Gilani only receiving a nominal court sanction for alleged corruption, and the Finance Ministry touted 4 percent GDP growth comeback during the annual IMF spring meeting without renewing a program plea. Repayments on the suspended original $10 billion arrangement will fall due in coming months as the reserve drop already exceeded 25 percent the past year on the trade deficit and uneven remittances which too have recently rallied. The rupee is off the 90/dollar low, but capital inflow in the current fiscal year is just $200 million although bargain prices have lured external bond investors. The exchange boost has been attributed to a tax decision protecting participants’ fund sources if they hold for several months in contrast to earlier revenue and money laundering mandates designed to raise the 10 percent of GDP collection take. A handful of consumer and infrastructure listings have reported good earnings despite electricity and credit slack, and a free-trade opening with India with bilateral commerce at $2. 5 billion created excitement. Double-digit inflation lingers and the budget gap will again top 5 percent of GDP as domestic official borrowing rises at ten times the annual private sector pace. The delegation indicated during its Washington visit that a new US economic assistance pact was under negotiation which will emphasize anti-poverty as well as venture capital efforts for income and business support in recognition of the “negative development impact” of the decade-long war against Islamic extremists that has killed an estimated 45,000 civilians and soldiers there. Optimists point to an eventual “peace dividend” as now unfolding on the subcontinent in Sri Lanka with GDP growth at double Pakistan’s rate as monetary tightening damps inflation. It has succeeded with a $2 billion IMF standby which was extended through July after delays and liberalized foreign access to the high-yield local bond market to help bridge the large current account deficit. The currency has recovered and new prudential controls aim to curb rapid bank lending expansion.

Human rights investigations into civil war actions however continue to block full tourism and aid resumption in a pattern also touching neighboring Bangladesh, where the exchange has struggled to assert frontier momentum. Opposition figures and trade unionists have disappeared and been targeted by the Hasina Administration which returned to caretaker power under army guidance before scheduled elections in 2014. It managed 5 percent economic growth this fiscal year and just negotiated a $1 billion Fund credit line to cover spiking oil import costs. At the end of 2011 a suspected military coup led by Islamist proponents was thwarted on mixed evidence beyond consideration in principle.



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Mexico’s Spurned Wal-Mart Special
2012 May 7 by admin

Posted in: Latin America/Caribbean
Mexican shares, after mirroring the MSCI’s advance, nosedived as heavyweight Wal-Mart was reportedly ensnared in large government payoffs to secure store locations that were not pursued after the results of an internal investigation. To labor activists, many close to the long-dominant PRI commandingly ahead in presidential opinion polls, the episode smacked of previous alleged cover-ups to hide questionable business practices including wage and working hour non-compliance. The revelation dented the domestic demand story that along with US-driven exports were to bring GDP growth close to 4 percent, above rival Brazil which has imposed 3-year limits on auto entry to protect domestic plants. It came as the central bank has tilted toward easing after a long stretch on hold in the pre-election period, with the peso also softening on a trajectory back to 13. The outgoing administration has trumpeted new success with the aerospace industry while postponing further steps on Pemex private opening, although President Calderon harshly criticized Argentina’s expropriation move against Spain’s Repsol. As the former colonial power reels from its own debt crisis regulators have looked for signs of strain at the big Spanish-owned networks mainly funded by local deposits. They are also key buyers of Treasury bills and bonds with the foreign-controlled share of the instruments at 30 percent. The monetary authority has rejected peso intervention while continuing the regular foreign exchange auction, but a sudden bout of weakness on capital outflow could bring a course shift. In probing Latin America’s vulnerabilities the IMF and World Bank during the spring meetings cited commodity price and European bank reversals. Front-runner for the July contest Perez Nieto has promised to sustain macro-economic discipline and increase formal employment through competitiveness and structural changes. His lead stands at double-digits despite commentator jabs at his intellect and questions of favorable deals during his tenure as state governor. Unlike the historical tendency all three candidates vow to tighten relations with Washington to further trade and anti-drug agendas, while they allow for future bilateral Nafta modifications and narcotics decriminalization.

Their stance may be tamer than Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff’s during her April visit to the US, where she lambasted the “monetary tsunami” triggered by the Fed’s near-zero interest policy and insisted the WTO investigate possible exchange rate manipulation. She also pressed for answers on a defense contract won by aircraft maker Embraer that was later suspended and solicited support for a permanent UN Security Council seat. With the benchmark Selic due to revert to its post-crisis low under 9 percent the central bank is now demanding that domestic lenders reduce record spreads after erecting a complex of anti-appreciation measures against foreign investors. The development giant BNDES will receive a fresh infusion for infrastructure and strategic sectors that find strict definitions discounted in a sudden shopping frenzy.

European Banks’ Deleveraging Mechanics
2012 May 7 by admin

Posted in: Europe
After previously ruing the ramifications of cross-border bank rebalancing for emerging Europe, the April edition of the IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report cited a specific figure of $2. 5 trillion or 7 percent of total assets on near-term deleveraging to meet business and regulatory objectives. One-quarter of balance sheet shrinkage will come from lower lending and the remainder from securities and other portfolio sales, with a baseline assumption of 2 percent European credit withdrawal which could cause “serious damage” if broad and simultaneous. 80 percent of the cuts have already been detailed in large bank group plans prepared for shareholders and the EBA to attain prudential and return standards. On a geographic basis Asia and Latin America are included in pullbacks, while wholesale segments like commodity, project and trade finance also fall under the hammer. In late 2011 euro-area banks slashed emerging market lines almost 10 percent according to the BIS, and in contrast with the post-2008 crisis the shift may now be structural and “persist for a longer period” the Fund believes. It notes on the positive side that export credit has held up globally with Chinese and Japanese institutions in particular filling the recent gap. Emerging EU members will see a 5 percent drop in private credit over the next two years at a delicate juncture where currency depreciation and high foreign ownership of local debt already pose vulnerabilities. Sovereign debt troubles there could bring systemic risks to Austrian and Belgian parents and magnify capital flow volatility in other regions, the review warns. Brazil, China and other destinations are in “advanced stages” of their own credit booms with 20 percent-plus annual growth requiring internal industry and monetary policy adjustments which would be complicated by external shocks. Their government instruments may eventually enter the worldwide “safe asset” category which has narrowed 15 percent or $10 trillion with OECD country downgrades and the collapse of the securitization market. In developing economies bank holdings of state paper can be at 20 percent of the overall portfolio whereas only Japan has such concentration among industrial powers. Lagging size, infrastructure and legal recourse remain impediments to achieving haven status as emerging market financial depth is still just 20 percent of the global total although the GDP portion is twice that amount.

To challenge the latest ratings direction European officials have called for launch of a new agency under their auspices while Germany’s Bertelsmann Foundation has designed a blue-print for a non-profit alternative that would be operated in all regions drawing on an initial $400 million endowment. It would apply traditional creditworthiness alongside a series of proprietary governance and transformation indicators that could better define sovereign grading as a public good after another burst of bad private determination.

Cartagena’s Post-Summit Tourist Travails
2012 May 4 by admin

Posted in: Latin America/Caribbean
The Americas Summit in Colombia concluded without commercial or diplomatic breakthroughs as notoriety focused on US Secret Service nocturnal leisure activity in the popular vacation spot with other regional destinations also under the microscope for their own event risks. Host President Santos reaffirmed direct and portfolio investment overtures as the central bank paused while warning of possible credit overheating and reserving the right to take new anti-appreciation currency measures. Following the meeting he promptly denounced Argentina’s YPF seizure as the opposite of his administration’s welcome as Chile’s Codelco considers cross-border mining ties and oil production reaches fresh records. However in cracking down against former paramilitaries while pursuing rapprochement with FARC guerillas and Venezuelan counterpart Chavez, he may be breaking with his predecessor’s hard security stance embraced by the conservative business community at home and abroad that have been traditional allies. Although no change was agreed there on including Cuba and ending Washington’s trade boycott, he also called existing practices toward the communist bastion “unacceptable. ” Colombian financial executives attending hailed the “positive atmosphere” but noted leaders’ preoccupation with their own political and economic futures once more frustrating hemispheric solidarity despite minor accords on energy and broadband and academic cooperation.

The talks proceeded in the wake of a harsh IMF review on Jamaica as its new government tries to resurrect the standby accord which narrowly skirted debt default. GDP growth is minimal even with better visitor numbers, while inflation is over 5 percent, the fiscal deficit is 6 percent of GDP and the current account gap is twice that proportion. Remittances are up from North America and Europe but reserves dipped below $2 billion with multilateral lender repayment and oil import costs. Banks that endorsed a domestic maturity extension as part of the original structure have hinted at renegotiation as balance sheets are squeezed, and external bonds have been avoided on the prospect they too could be restructured. That outcome will definitely be repeated in Belize after the results of March elections where Premier Barrow got another term on a platform to reduce the stepped-up coupon load of the so-called “superbond. ” Prices rallied on his desire for an “amicable” process as tourism which accounts for one-third of output and jobs was steady. The economy should expand 3 percent and the budget deficit is modest given the expected higher interest bill under a revised formula. In the Dominican Republic hospitality inflows increased 5 percent as the incumbent party may hang on to the presidency despite IMF program non-compliance and the chronic power crisis. As an active EMBI component, holders favor it over Costa Rica where the Chinchilla team planned a market return but was repelled on prerequisite tax reform as sharks circled.

Central Asia’s Off-Center Interference
2012 May 4 by admin

Posted in: Asia
Kazakh bank external debt was again marked down and shunned as BTA requested another round of creditor concessions from the committee comprised of well-known houses like Ashmore and JP Morgan who had previously acquiesced to two-thirds reduction. The state investment fund, in pursuit of assets reportedly stashed abroad by its former chief executive, a relative of President Nazarbaev, rejected help after a missed payment on the restructured 2018 Eurobond. The estimated hole is $5 billion, and larger Halyk Bank has urged the government to liquidate the unit to end the continued slide. System non-performing loans remain one-third of the total, with S&P placing it in the “high risk” category. With hydrocarbons’ upswing GDP growth should hit 6 percent on inflation around the same number, but demand is cooling for main customers China and Italy. The budget deficit lingers and the projected current account surplus at 4 percent of GDP could be endangered by income repatriation as foreign energy firms try to cope with ever shifting ownership and royalty divides. International reserves have rebounded to $35 billion with an additional $45 billion available in the backup stabilization fund but the central bank continues to draw on the pool to maintain the exchange rate corridor established post-crisis. Rumors of the President’s ill health have been rampant after recent parliamentary elections which allowed formal opposition, and the stock market has been a frontier leader on his promise of “people’s ipos” to distribute wealth to all citizens as a legacy. His reputation has been battered by oil field unrest and a lackluster agricultural harvest that may reintroduce food shortages. In neighboring Mongolia popular mining share flotations have also been announced, but the key South Gobi coal project was recently challenged by authorities over dealings between Canadian and Chinese developers. The company which is dual-listed in Hong Kong and Toronto experienced a 10 percent price drop and its auditor resigned on the inquiry. The sovereign-guaranteed Development Bank issued a 5-year bond in March yielding 5. 75 percent on eager appetite but soon after the former President was arrested on corruption charges underscoring political fragility in the run-up to parliamentary elections. GDP growth and inflation are running at double-digits with a persistent fiscal deficit despite adoption of a responsibility law.

The country has exited its IMF program, unlike in Georgia further afield where a new $400 million precautionary arrangement was just inked. Elections are approaching with strong opposition to the US-educated president and his party, as the government tries to emphasize public-private partnership potential in resort building and other areas which brought a visit from New York real estate mogul Donald Trump. Unemployment is over 15 percent, and the current account gap is 12 percent of GDP, which investors may not have foremost on their mind considering novelty value in an exotic EMBI sub-index.

Angola’s Residual Oil Anguish Angles
2012 May 2 by admin

Posted in: Africa
As Angola completed its IMF standby arrangement centered on better oil revenue management and transparency and again broached the possibility of sovereign bond entry, the US Justice Department circulated findings of a foreign corrupt practices investigation showing both past and sitting officials with hidden joint venture ownership stakes and payments. Election preparation is underway as the ruling party tries to chart succession and allow greater opposition, and to prevent resurgence of state arrears to domestic contractors and suppliers after several rounds of clearance with administrative streamlining and tighter fiscal policy. A formal stabilization fund may be created to handle petroleum export proceeds as Sonangol looks to document the “unexplained residual” of large outflows and murky accounts which may total one-quarter of GDP according to the Fund. Government budget transfers are to proceed in timely and verifiable fashion to prevent another 2009-type liquidity crisis under the provisions of a new fiscal responsibility law. Priorities since then have been to rebuild international reserves and ensure social and infrastructure spending, as banks adapt to construction slowdown and gradual foreign exchange liberalization. Only 40 percent of loans are in kwacha, and institutions face further currency and counterparty risk from relationships with entities in Portugal, itself the recipient of both bilateral and multilateral assistance. With reduced monetary expansion inflation could go to single digits as non-oil GDP growth stays around 7 percent. The T-bill market is active out to one-year and authorities plan to develop the segment alongside a nascent stock exchange. Financial market scope badly lags rival energy powerhouse Nigeria, where foreign investors have poured into high-yield local debt on the back of naira strength and banking sector cleanup. The sovereign wealth fund there will soon be launched and was championed by Finance Minister Okonjo-Iweala, who lost her bid to become World Bank President but has promised to redouble subsidy and power industry reform efforts despite initial setbacks and insertion of the Boko Haram terror threat on the pressing political and economic agenda.

In Zambia, which was also seen as a near-term maiden issuer, the ratings outlook went to negative as the new administration pledged to renegotiate copper mining projects and withdrew opposition party certification. Both gestures may moderate over time, as the president’s team seeks to reinforce democratic credentials in continental and global circles and maintain mainland China partner interest as industrial conditions at home deteriorate under the latest PMI readings and forecasts. A $500 million-range Eurobond is still in the works as the budget deficit has doubled from 2011 and electricity shortages plague both agriculture and metals production which previously sparked direct and portfolio investor excitement.

Greece’s Escape Clause Cues
2012 May 2 by admin

Posted in: Europe
A month after completing a signature bond swap which imposed a record loss while retroactively altering contracts and subordinating private creditors in a perilous Euro-zone precedent, the Greek central bank warned that future membership was in doubt as this year’s GDP drop was put at 5 percent, as the European Investment Bank began inserting drachma conversion clauses into infrastructure project documents. Local banks took a EUR 25 billion haircut and will need at least twice that amount in recapitalization under the second EU-IMF program, as Cypriot lender without that backstop scrambled to absorb similar damage. Around EUR 5 billion in foreign law instruments were not exchanged and holdouts may try to press their case in light of a New York decision in the lengthy Argentina fight ordering pari-passu payment of claims. The US government has filed a brief against the interpretation and officials in Athens stress they lack funds to cover the whole amount. A large redemption comes due a week after elections in which neither of the two main parties will be able to command popular support according to opinion readings which show strong extremist inroads. Further budget cuts must be found by June for next year following the latest Troika review, with provisional data indicating a 9 percent of GDP deficit. The current account gap will fall slightly from that level in 2011, while bank deposits off EUR 70 billion since the crisis onset continue to flee the system. In Portugal, which has also slipped back into the emerging market class after removal from world bond indices, the external balance has likewise improved and several privatizations have occurred. Corporate and household debt burdens far outstrip the public one at 115 percent of output, and 15 percent unemployment will be aggravated by labor reform opposed by powerful unions. The next big commercial bond amortization is in September 2013 when access is to be regained, but investors remain dubious of that outcome as well as the state’s honoring of numerous company borrowing guarantees.

In traditional emerging Europe, Hungary was placed at the top of the IMF’s list for bank and sovereign spillover as corridor negotiations over a new facility unfolded over its spring gathering. The EU has reopened the way for assistance after clarification of central bank law changes and submission of a revised fiscal adjustment blueprint which envisions near zero economic growth this year. The benchmark interest rate was kept at 7 percent despite the forint again touching 300 and medium term bond yields almost 9 percent, as negative retail sales choked consumption. To meet the 3 percent of GDP convergence target a new financial transaction tax will succeed the special one applied by Prime Minister Orban whose opinion polls now single out reckless decisions.

Turkey’s Power Projection Pushbacks
2012 April 27 by admin

Posted in: Europe
Turkish stocks finished Q1 with a solid European showing after drifting on continued confusion over political and geopolitical stands and monetary and exchange rate policies as prime minister’s Erdogan’s health also invited doubts with scarce public appearances. Diplomats have led the charge to sanction and oust the Assad regime as Istanbul hosted an international meeting of ‘free Syria” groups and supporters considering weapons aid. The military at home again came under condemnation from the ruling party after alleged coup plotting as human rights abuses during its time in government decade ago were recalled with victims still seeking compensation. The grip on journalists which has included fines and detentions relented on EU criticism as writers investigating the ties between the government and the Gulenist Islamic school movement were let out of jail just before facing trial. Exposure of the relationship provoked a purge of the police and judicial ranks as new intelligence service heads were also installed. Skirmishes with Kurdish forces resurfaced and officials were drawn into a rancorous debate in France over legislation marking Armenia’s World War I losses and purported Turkish ethnic brutality often labeled genocide. 30 years after the army changed the charter constitutional reform remains a major agenda item despite the absence of a super-majority to facilitate a possible switch to a powerful presidential system. In the regional stakes, relations with Iran have cooled as it still backs Damascus and companies and banks are pressured to join the oil and financial embargos against its nuclear program and NATO maintains an important base as airstrikes are contemplated against Tehran. Its stock exchange has dipped on the tighter sanctions which have pummeled the currency and prompted the central bank to lift benchmark rates to 20 percent as a string of planned privatizations otherwise drains liquidity.

Turkish monetary head Basci has stood by the unorthodox approach using multiple tools in an effort to slow double-digit credit growth and reduce inflation to the 6 percent target, and added a twist as the weekly repo moved from a quantity to price model and then was suspended. Consumer lending has dropped markedly at 20 percent rates, which have also managed to curb import demand to tackle the 10 percent of GDP current account gap. A firmer lira has diminished the intervention need for dipping into reserves, which now cover only 4 months of goods purchase. Heavy domestic debt redemptions were successful over the quarter while foreign issuance diversified to the Samurai market. Although economic growth will halve from last year to around 4 percent, unemployment is under 10 percent. The primary surplus has upheld fiscal discipline in the absence of a responsibility law despite sudden attention to the glaring lack in other realms.

Cuba’s Papal Blessing Blemishes
2012 April 27 by admin

Posted in: Latin America/Caribbean
Cuban debt saw rare actions in the exotics market as the Pope visited the island to encourage religious revival and was warmly received by the Castros at the same time Venezuelan benefactor Chavez underwent further anti-cancer treatment as opinion polls showed him tied with unified opposition candidate Capriles for the October presidential contest. The closed-end Miami-based Caribbean Basin fund which has targeted a post-US trade embargo for decades with investments in cruise lines and food companies, also enjoyed a brief pop as the visit triggered Washington discussion of further restriction removal with educational, family and remittance connections already flowering. According to outside observers GDP growth should be 3 percent this year after the leadership sanctioned individual private business launch to absorb the shedding of hundreds of thousands of state employees at loss-making firms. Smallholder agriculture could also receive credit and equipment inputs under the changes in an effort to revive commodity exports that have concentrated on nickel and recent discovery of offshore oil. Services, in particular medical professional deployment is the primary balance of payments support, offsetting a large bilateral goods deficit with Caracas. Chinese loans are available for commercial purchases, and Brazilian joint ventures operate in the tobacco and ports sector. While Havana has dismissed relation with the “colonial” Bretton Woods institutions with their historic Western dominance it has edged closer to regional lenders including the new “Bank of the South,” Andean Investment Fund and Caribbean Development Bank. Although not a member of the OAS democratic club, many members have urged participation and dialogue at periodic Americas summits such as April’s Colombian one. Cuban officials have reportedly sought technical advice in such areas as currency and pension regimes in an effort to control retirement costs and manage an eventual switch from the artificial “convertible peso” pegged at par to the dollar for tourist use. According to end-2011 statistics 350,000 citizens applied for a business license but most kept their state jobs against the goal of half private sector transfer by mid-decade.

Longer-term recovery is likewise elusive in neighboring Haiti despite strides the past year from the epochal earthquake, the IMF finds in its latest snapshot. GDP growth at 5. 5 percent in FY 2011 was equal to the previous period’s contraction as inflation dipped to single-digits and fiscal and external positions strengthened. The currency has firmed against the greenback despite the financial system’s 60 percent dollarization level, but the tax revenue-output ration remains barely above 10 percent. Despite almost $1 billion in external debt relief, domestic arrears have accumulated and further liabilities will mount with Treasury-bill issuance. A new central bank law attempts to promote central bank monetary policy independence after long evading ruling power endorsement.

Saudi Sukuks’ Well Gusher
2012 April 24 by admin

Posted in: MENA
Saudi Arabia blazed onto the Islamic debt scene with a Gulf-leading $6. 5 billion in issuance in Q1, with the sudden entry of banks and utilities as Western-sourced project and syndicated finance vanished. One-quarter that amount came from a two-tranche state electric company instrument that was heavily subscribed from regional investors at a 150 basis point premium over the mid-swaps rate. The global total for the period was $45 billion, already half 2011’s overall activity, according to industry trackers. The UAE continued to be prominent despite headline rescheduling attempts by additional government-linked groups following the DW package. Family groups are tapping the market for the first time, and Abu Dhabi Oil diversified with a direct placement in Malaysia. However Dubai World’s Drydocks unit sought refuge in bankruptcy court as creditors took a hard line, and the parade of names in search of refinancing now includes the airline and its duty-free shops. Yields on the HSBC Gulf sukuk index had dropped to 4. 5 percent at end-March but have since crept up as oil prices have moved in the opposite direction. Both the Saudi and UAE stock markets have jumped 20 percent, behind only Egypt, and the former may join the MSCI roster this year with a formal opening to qualified international institutions and individuals. The dual Emirates exchanges missed the last promotion chance to the core universe, but are working on infrastructure and short-selling issues that may allow admission. Smaller area bourses have lagged, with Kuwait, Oman and Qatar in negative territory while Lebanon and Tunisia were flat. Despite the carnage in next-door Syria, a Lebanese Eurobond was well bid by banks and expatriates, and Tunisia’s government has secured a US bilateral guarantee to facilitate possible near-term external debt rollover. It can back a $500 million placement following a Treasury bond operation of that size with Qatar. The Islamic-party headed administration has emphasized job creation and capital mobilization efforts and has invited outside advice and support for small business startups as untangling of the previous Ben Ali legal and illegal holdings slowly proceeds.

Egyptian stock performance has veered to the top from the bottom of the pack, although the early year 40 percent surge has faded. The central bank has laid the foundation for its own sukuk thrust as Treasury auctions fail and longer-term yields approach 17 percent. Foreign reserves are off 60 percent since Mubarak’s resignation to a critical import coverage level, and a diaspora launch of special certificates of deposit is designed to gather funds with talks over a $3 billion IMF loan at a stalemate pending the outcome of Muslim Brotherhood-military jockeying for power and scheduled May presidential elections Withholding tax may be modified to stimulate domestic debt inflows while other stimulus is off the table with promised subsidy reductions to bring the fiscal deficit under 10 percent of GDP.

Indonesia’s Bashed Bric Hurl
2012 April 24 by admin

Posted in: Asia
Indonesian shares finished a lackluster quarter as the BRICS summit passed in New Delhi with no invitation for group entry and mass protests erupted against long-telegraphed fuels subsidy cuts to keep the budget deficit at 2 percent of GDP. Investors were already dubious about premium valuations over the regional norm and the corporate governance defects highlighted by the board of directors fight in major listing Bumi Coal where the family owners sidelined international outsiders. The cooking oil and petrol transfers absorb one-fifth of spending, and the government wants to use the proceeds for infrastructure after passing landmark land access and power and transport sector changes while better targeting help for the poorest. Inflation may double to 7 percent with the shift, on a more modest 6 percent economic growth forecast. Wage demands have risen in advance with sporadic labor unrest, and President Yudhoyono in the final stages of his second term has publically endorsed their cause. Consumption may flag under these conditions as the current account heads toward a deficit and the capital account inflows pause from their recent record pace. Commodity export prices are off with the country a net petroleum importer and relying on heavy equipment purchase abroad. Foreign holdings of local debt may dip below their post-crisis 30 percent share as the central bank continues to purchase large amounts for system stability and liquidity management purposes. An external sovereign bond was easily placed in January, and private direct and portfolio investors are asked to provide one-quarter the estimated 2 trillion rupiah funding envelope for electricity, port, and road projects through 2015. A March review by rater S&P points out that energy tariffs are “low, inflexible and non-transparent. ” The PLN monopoly unilaterally renegotiated contracts, which as a whole are poorly enforced according to the World Bank’s Doing Business measure. The new land acquisition statute is designed to slash costs and timing, and infrastructure guarantee and public-private partnership mechanisms have been upgraded.

Domestic state banks remain the dominant long-term money source, and the burgeoning Islamic sukuk market is well suited for risk-sharing as an alternative. The agency predicts FDI in these critical sectors could double as a share of GDP to 4 percent with “efficient administration,” but notes that lasting confidence will entail a series of policy and practical steps. The neighboring Philippines under President Aquino likewise unveiled a PPP push as the fiscal gap continues to come in under 3 percent of GDP. It has signed on to the US government’s Partnership for Growth aid effort which emphasizes power supply revamp, and exchange-listed privatizations are foreseen in the mix. Overseas worker remittances are intact as anti-corruption moves try to break from the past and prove their firmness.







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Greater China’s Hard Land Lumps
2012 April 18 by admin

Posted in: Asia
Hong Kong shares slackened on the dramatic arrest on bribery charges of the Kwok brothers whose firm has controlled a commercial and residential land empire for decades, just a week after self-declared populist Leung was elected chief executive in a tightly-managed race following a scandal involving the previous candidate Henry Tsang which flaunted ties to the island’s wealthy. Widening income inequality and poverty have suffused political debate amid the post-crisis property boom, and the new leader has promised to confront tycoons’ power despite his early role in supporting breakneck housing expansion. Developer stocks have long been under the microscope as the Monetary Authority attempts to brake lending alongside Beijing’s existing curbs that were reiterated at the latest gathering of top officials before the upcoming reshuffle. The enclave still suffers from a shortage of affordable flats underscored by the saga of Mr. Tang’s illegal wine cellar which itself was bigger than typical units. The economy may only grow 1 percent this year on re-export retrenchment as the outgoing government tries to find additional revenue for small-business and social spending. The soft patch and rich-poor divide have resurrected calls for universal voting and re-examination of the dollar peg as the renimbi again noticeably slips against the greenback for the first time since the mid- 1990s Asian financial crisis. In Taiwan following the re-election of President Ma electronics and manufacturing sales are also drifting and to pay for fiscal stimulus his team may impose capital gains tax.