Turkey and the Great Nations 63
of the Greco-Slav States into the European com-
munity, may certainly rely upon the future.
of the Greco-Slav States into the European com-
munity, may certainly rely upon the future.
Treitschke - 1915 - Germany, France, Russia, and Islam
50 Turkey and the Great Nations
dramatic poet is this time not Stratford but Elliot,
and he will be desirous of embellishing the old
play with some new inventions; perhaps he will
really cheer us up with the gallows '-humoiu* of an
Ottoman Parliament. There are enough Catonic
natives among the merchants of the Fanar, as
well as among the Armenian and Greek tax-
farmers; with the aid of the customary baksheesh
the requisite number of loyal Rayah deputies will
assuredly be found. And what a triumph it
would be for Disraeli's diplomacy if it succeeded
in introducing a fresh kind of constitutional
monarchy into Europe's constitutional history,
viz. , parliamentarism tempered by murder! In
what illuminating relief would this picture stand
out in the dithyrambs of the English Press against
the well-known descriptions of the Russian Con-
stitution !
What the Rayahs have to expect from the new
Government the semi-official Oriental correspond-
ence has just confessed in an unguarded moment
of sincerity. Tolerance -- thus it ran -- may be
expected by Christians, but no political rights on
any account from a Sovereign who owes his throne
to the Osmans. That is the truth of the matter.
Even as the Turks formerly replied to the outburst
of the Greek revolution by the murder of the
Patriarch of Constantinople, they have to-day
answered the Bosnio- Bulgarian revolt and the
Serbian war preparations by the Sultan's deposi-
tion. It was an uprising of the old master-race
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? Turkey and the Great Nations 51
which was accompanied by its usual brutahty,
but which was quite respect- worthy of its kind.
The Old and Young Turks are quite united in
their determination to keep their feet on the
Christians' necks. They laugh, rightly too, about
the notion of comfortable persons that the Sultan,
expelled from Stamboul, will presently govern
an incomparably happier Asiatic Empire from
Broussa ; such a rejuvenation of a Power which has
just been disgracefully defeated would be contrary
to all experience of Oriental history. They feel
so safe amid the quarrels between the European
Powers, that doubtless many a Turkish statesman
may quietly wish that Russia might, by a false
step, give the Porte an opportunity for forcing a
war. The new Sultan is already in the middle
thirties; about that time of life the inevitable
results of harem-life are wont rapidly to appear
in the latest generations of Osman's descendants.
Should he, however, remain in the long run more
responsible than his two glorious predecessors,
he can never belie the origin of his government.
With England's help, financial means and military
forces will probably be found so as to overcome the
embarrassments of the moment ; perhaps real satis-
faction will be given for the murder of the two
consuls instead of open contempt. Still, if Allah
bestows his blessings, everything will after all
remain as it is. The Rayahs cannot put any trust
in the Porte's promises so long as there are not
some Christians in the Porte's Ministerial Council
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? 52 Turkey and the Great Nations
-- not corrupt Fanariots, but trusty agents of the
small races -- and such a proposal would now be
simply impossible.
As already stated, one may regard Turkey as a
religious State, but the Padishah is the Caliph
of all the Sunnites, and the Caliphate's mighty
actuaHty will be stronger than a paper promise.
With their customary diplomatic cleverness they
may make the most delightful promises to the
Great Powers, but the valis and kaimakams will
not forget the equally customary and ancient art
of making life sour for the Rayahs, and the English
will again, just as under Stratford's rule, receive
commands to report nothing adverse about the
Turkish administration. So, perhaps, the world
will keep patient until after a few years the Empire
is involved in a fresh crisis. In politics incom-
petence in living is by no means synonymous with
death, as we Germans know by the experiences
of our small States ; and the power of sluggishness
is nowhere greater than in the East.
Will matters really develop so slowly? The
decision depends on the conduct of the Great
Powers.
He who speaks about the Oriental Question with
a great show of moral indignation, ever runs the
risk of being suspected of hypocrisy. It is hardly
edifying to find to-day in part of the German Press
a repetition of English stock speeches against
Muscovite selfishness. Surely it ought to be
taken quite as a matter of course by us honest
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? Turkey and the Great Nations 53
Germans that Russia and England, the two prota-
gonists there in the East, think first of their
own strength, and both are pursuing their purpose
with that complete unscrupulousness which has
been peculiar for thousands of years to all fights
between Powers in the Orient. If you examine
the matter impartially, you cannot deny that
Russia has always judged the character of the
Turkish State, the unchangeableness of that
theocracy, more accurately than most of the other
Powers. In this regard, Petersburg politics was
always superior to its opponents, even at the
periods when they arrogantly underrated the
Turks' power of resistance. The biting irony with
which the Russian Plenipotentiary to the Paris
Congress was wont to accompany the reform-
programmes of the West has met with full justi-
fication in the events of the following decades.
The grounds of this superiority are tolerably
obvious. The Russians are themselves a half-
Eastern people, and are not regarded as Franks by
Moslems; they have been in immemorial inter-
course with Asiatics, understand how to treat their
Mohammedan subjects very skilfully, and formed
earlier than the rest of European peoples a con-
viction about the future of the Balkan countries
which has become a national tradition owing
to two centuries of wars and negotiations. That
the strongest of the Slav Powers, which bears the
Imperial Eagle of Byzantium in its coat-of-arms,
must act so as to expel the Crescent from the
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? 54 Turkey and the Great Nations
Czarograd of the South, requires no elucidation.
Since the Porte by the Peace of Kutchuk-Kainar-
ji had to promise the Petersburg Court to protect
the Christian reHgion and its Churches, Russia
has posed as the lawful protector of the Greek
Christians in Turkey; only an Orthodox Believer
can become Russian Ambassador in Stamboul.
This tendency towards Byzantium is to Russians
what their "manifest destiny" was to the North
Americans, viz. , a political necessity imposed by
the Empire's world-position as well as by the
nation's holiest feelings and memories. In his
Oriental scheming all the Russian's sincere idealism
comes to light, especially the strength of his
religious feeling. It is not only the masses who
revere Holy Russia in their State, but the higher
classes also, despite their Voltairean education,
regard Russiadom and the Orthodox Creed as
synonymous, and there is often to be found in
these circles an enthusiastic veneration for the
''Primary Church of Christendom," which alone
has remained unalterable. A short time ago a
Russian statesman, one of the freest- thinking
heads among his race, wrote to me : ' * In our religion
the Communion Cup remains concealed with a
covering till the moment of transubstantiation ;
the day will come when the covering will also fall
from the Orthodox Church and its Divine contents
will be shown to the world. " I certainly doubt
if the Russian Church has really such a wealth of
hidden moral forces at its disposal; suffice it that
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? Turkey and the Great Nations 55
the inmost being of the State and of popular opin-
ion compels every Czar to maintain the ancient
union with their brother-believers in the South.
But the forms and methods of this policy have
manifoldly changed in rapid sequence; a doctrin-
aire insistence on ready-made programmes is the
last reproach that could be brought against the
realism of Petersburg diplomacy. In the eight-
eenth century Russia was a Power highly danger-
ous to the peace of the world, expanding hugely,
absorbing everything which lay within reach of its
arms; the land-grabbing Cabinet policy of those
days found, naturally, its most audacious expon-
ents in the least-civilized of courts. It would be
well for Russia if she no longer denied to-day what
is a historical fact: that Peter the Great wished
to be buried in Byzantium; that Muennich de-
scribed Turkey as the Czar's assured booty;
that Catherine cherished boundless ideas of
conquest when she negotiated with Joseph II and
Thugut, and had her second grandson baptized
with the name of the Byzantine Emperors; that
the Peace of Kutchuk-Kainarji was carried
out in an extremely violent way, owing to Russia
-- and so on, ad infinitum. The echoes of this
poHcy of conquest could be heard well into our
nineteenth century. For instance, the acquisi-
tion by Czar Nicholas of the mouths of the Danube
was an outrageous attack on the territory of a
foreign Power, which Europe should never have
tolerated. It is only since Alexander II 's Reform
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? 56 Turkey and the Great Nations
Laws that this conquest policy has been given
up. One reform engenders another, every
cut into the ancient injuries of a State exposes
other wounds previously unnoticed; the aboli-
tion of serfdom is no longer enough, the Empire
requries comprehensive agrarian laws, in order
that the free peasant may also obtain inde-
pendent possession of soil. New and unavoid-
able problems for legislation are quickly arising,
and the small number of really educated men
at the disposal of the Government is scarcely
sufficient to solve them all. Moreover, the free
discussions of the last two decades have only just
stirred up in Russia a real national life; even as
they have learnt to adopt as a necessity the new
State-formations of Central Europe, they are also
asking their own government for a national
foreign policy.
And nobody can deny that Czar Alexander has
so far satisfied their claim. The quelling of the Pol-
ish uprising was, despite all the horrors connected
with it, after all only an act of self-defence,
compelled by the Poles' incomprehensible folly, as
well as by the unanimous desire of the Russian
people; and that splendid campaign of conquest,
too, in Central Asia is a national deed, however
paradoxical it may seem. The Russians are not
meeting there, like the Britons in the East Indies,
a very ancient civilization, equal in birth, but
naked barbarism; they appear as the heralds of a
superior civilization, and yet are not imapproach-
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? Turkey and the Great Nations 57
ably alien to the conquered by descent and moral-
ity. The conquest is therefore much easier of
accomplishment, and it needs more rarely, than
was once the case with the East India Company,
those unworthy means which were needed for the
subjection of India. The conqueror may expect,
gradually, to inspire those hordes with his civili-
zation, just as he has already Russified Kazan
and Astrakhan, the Tartars of the Crimea, and the
Kirghiz tribes, yes, even the greater part of the
Caucasus. We Liberals of the West, however,
have gradually grown out of the ridiculous enthus-
iasm of earlier days and begin to perceive that it is
gain for culture when the bestial Circassians,
Luanetians, etc. , become Russians. This tremen-
dous outflow of Slavdom towards the East cannot
stop before the whole boundless regions from the
Amur and the Chinese boundary to the Ural form
a safe commercial dominion. Prince Gortchakof's
well-known phrase, '^Cest done toujours d recom-
mencer^^^ hits the nail on the head.
Now, is it at all credible that a Government
which places before itself so great and difficult and
yet attainable aims, both in its home and foreign
policy, should pursue a Napoleonic adventurer's
policy in the case of Turkey ? The Russians are not
nearer to the Serbs and Greeks than the Germans
to the Danes and English; with the Rumanians
they have absolutely nothing in common except
the Orthodox Creed and that incomplete civili-
zation which distinguishes the whole Slav- Jewish-
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? 58 Turkey and the Great Nations
Wallachian Eastern half of Europe. The morbid
national pride of the small Rayah peoples rejects
scornfully the idea of becoming Russian; the
Greek especially despises the Muscovites as Slavs
and barbarians, although he condescends to use
them for his purposes. Many unpleasant truths
may be enunciated about the lamentable realms
Rumania and Greece; they are not Russian
provinces, much rather are they very jealous of
their national independence. That fanatical Pan-
Slavists long for the conquest of Byzantium is
known to all; but can an intelligent Russian
Government commit itself to such madness. ^ It
does not possess the means of destroying the
deeply-marked nationality of the small Rayah
peoples, it cannot desire to forge yet another
Polish cannon-ball for its feet, and, above all, it
owes its powerful position among the Balkan
States, in great part, to the submissiveness of the
Rayahs and cannot dream of subduing them by
force. Several historical philosophers demon-
strate, with an amount of erudition which would
be worthy of a finer cause, that in the cold North-
ern country life is really quite too uncomfortable,
a natural instinct is impelling the Russians to
exchange these inhospitable regions for the gor-
geous South. At Petersburg, however, people will
be very well aware that a population of 75,000,000
cannot, nowadays, casually start a new migra-
tion and leave the scenes of its thousand-years*
work.
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? Turkey and the Great Nations 59
It is also simply a learned fallacy to gloomily
maintain, in a free version of Alexander I's
notorious phrase, that the Bosphorus is the key to
the Russian house, the Czar's Government must
aim at its possession. After all, the Sound is the
second key to the Russian house, and when has
Russia ever tried to conquer Copenhagen, the
Byzantium of the North? Just as the Petersburg
Court is able to feel quite at ease, now that the
Sound is in the hands of two harmless Middle
Powers, it is likewise naturally only so far interested
in the Bosphorus, viz. , that it should be ruled
by a friendly Orthodox Power. Russia does not
wish to conquer the Bosphorus for itself, because
it has not the necessary power. No European
State, Germany least of all, can tolerate a per-
manent Russian settlement in Stamboul, if only
because of the feverish excitement which would be
bound to flame through all Slav races at such a
movement; and how is it thinkable that they
could maintain themselves there, if a German army
entered Poland, Austria's troops marched over
the Balkans, and an English fleet lay before
SeragHo Point? Who has a right to attribute
such gasconading tricks to the Russian Court?
Emperor Alexander has already proved, since
the beginning of his reign, by the conclusion of the
Paris Treaty how remote such visions are from
him. He was certainly unable to remain per-
manently content with that transaction, and for
good reasons. The plan of the Western Powers, to
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? 6o Turkey and the Great Nations
carry out the reforming of Turkey without and
against Russia, was, as the outcome showed, a sin
against nature and history. Seldom was a victory
less magnanimously and more stupidly exploited
than the truly modest success of Sebastopol.
It is impossible to forbid a mighty Empire to
sail the sea before its coast with warships, and it
is as immoral as was formerly the treaty for the
closing of the Scheldt, and similar products of
the older commercial policy. So shameful a con-
dition is observed by a proud State only so long
as it must be. With regard to such obligations the
mot holds good: "The breach of faith is then more
honourable than the observance. " The blame for
the announcement of that clause of the Paris
Treaty falls solely on the shoulders of the silly
conquerors, who in the intoxication of success
fancied they could impose the impossible on the
conquered; the indignant EngHsh cry about
Russian "breach of faith" found the less echo in
the right feeling of the European world, since
everybody knew the Paris Treaty had already a
long time before been broken in another respect.
Contrary to the Paris Treaty, the union of the
Danubian Principalities had been achieved, and
the Porte positively trampled under foot the
Humayum hat, the preamble of that Treaty.
The aim of Petersburg policy has lately been to
enhance the privileges of the Christian races and
Churches of the Balkan Peninsula and, where
possible, to raise those countries to semi-sovereign
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? Turkey and the Great Nations 6i
States. This was already transparently indicated
in that Gortchakof memorandum of 1867, which
demands the "co-existence par allele'' of the
Rayah peoples, and is still clearer in Russia's
attitude during the Bulgarian Church dispute.
The Russian Court kept formerly always on
terms of good friendship with the Patriarch of
Byzantium; it has now eagerly encouraged the
separation of the Bulgarian National Church from
the Patriarchate. It no longer makes a formal
claim of solely representing the Orthodox in
Turkey, but it is now, as it was formerly, the only
Power that can do anything for the Rayahs. Of
course the people in Petersburg have their arriere-
pensee: they desire, if possible, a powerless group
of small States in the Balkans, so that Russian
influence may alone be dominant there. On that
account, Russia formerly opposed the creation of
the independent Kingdom of Greece, and hoped
far more for the formation of three semi-sovereign
Principalities at the Southern point of the Penin-
sula; therefore, also, the union of Moldavia
and Wallachia ran counter to Petersburg views.
The root idea of Russian policy is, however, quite
justified ; apart from the autonomy of the territories,
there is in very truth no longer any way of secur-
ing the rights of the Rayahs. And as Russia is
certainly not in a position to arrange Eastern
affairs solely according to her will and pleasure,
the task is laid upon her Western allies to remove
the sting from the Russian plans.
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? 62 Turkey and the Great Nations
Just as the Petersburg Court long ago agreed
to acknowledge the Kingdom of Greece and the
Unified Rumanian State, it will also some time or
other, if Europe requires it, be obliged to allow the
enlargement of the Kingdom of Greece. Even
the collapse of Osman rule in Stamboul, which at
the moment is still quite out of sight, yet will
assuredly take place presently, cannot fill us with
blind fright if we calmly weigh the relations of
the Powers to-day. United Germany, honourably
reconciled to Austria, is very well able to see that
this catastrophe, if it must occur, shall occur under
circumstances which the West can accept. How,
pray, do the Anglo-maniacs know that a Greco-
Slav State on the Bosphorus must necessarily fall
under Russia's influence? That decayed, sucked-
out Byzantine Society altogether affords within a
conceivable future no soil for a menacing develop-
ment of might ; the natural opposition of interests,
the Greeks' deep hatred for the Russians, would
be bound to crop up very soon, and European
diplomacy would assuredly not be disposed to leave
the field to the Russians alone, there on the Golden
Horn, where it has contended for many decades
and devised schemes and played the master. No
tenable reason is at the root of the theory that the
destruction of the Osman State must needs level
the path for that Russian world-empire of which
the Anglo-maniacs dream. But the great idea
which Russia represents, in accordance with her
historic position in the Orient, the re-introduction
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?
Turkey and the Great Nations 63
of the Greco-Slav States into the European com-
munity, may certainly rely upon the future. The
Nature of things is working for it. Every bloody
deed in the Sultan's Palace, and every prosperous
voyage of daring Greek shipowners, works into
the hands of that idea. The Turkish apple of the
Hesperides is already beginning to plague Europe
with its odour ; the day must come when the rotten
fruit shall fall to earth. The Petersburg Court
has no occasion to endanger an assured future
by premature steps; it may quietly say: We can
wait.
England, however, cannot wait. A policy which
tries, after the manner of Prince Metternich, to up-
hold only what exists, because it exists, lives from
hand to mouth ; it requires loud comedy from time
to time in order to show the world that it is really
still alive and knows how to defend threatened
Europe from imaginary dangers. Four points of
view in especial seem to guide this wretched policy.
People living in the lucky aloofness of the wealthy
island have still preserved an obsolete conception
of European balance, and torment their brains with
nightmares which have lost all raison d'etre since
the Italian and the German revolutions. They
worry themselves about the Mediterranean sea-
fortresses, and do not perceive that England's
incomparable merchant service is bound to main-
tain the upper hand in the Mediterranean even if
those positions return to their natural masters -- a
trend of events which, moreover, is still at a mea-
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? 64 Turkey and the Great Nations
sureless distance from us. They want to uphold
the Osman Empire at any cost, because the Turks*
ludicrous trade-policy has opened a boundless
hunting-ground to the English merchant. Us-
ing some foresight, they could surely say to them-
selves that the restoration of tolerable political
conditions in the Balkan Peninsula is bound
necessarily to revive the commerce of those
countries, and consequently to confer advantage
on the chief commercial people in the world.
Monopolists, however, have ever preferred a small
capital with big gains to moderate gains with
bigger capital. Glad of the momentary benefit,
they swear again to Palmerston's expression:
*'I talk with no statesman who does not regard
the maintenance of Turkey as a European neces-
sity," and they forget that the same Palmerston
declared in his last years: "We shall not draw
the sword for a corpse a second time. "
They are afraid in London that Russia might
dominate the Suez Canal from Stamboul, and
they want, by means of favour shown to the
Caliph, to keep the Moslems of Hindustan in a
good humour and protect them against Muscovite
wiles. He who does not regard the Russian
campaign in Central Asia through the pessimistic
glasses of M. Vambery, but with independent
judgment, will indeed ask why England should
worry about it at all. That Russia should casually
pocket the 200,000,000 heads of the Anglo-Indian
Empire is surely but a bad joke, which finds only
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? Turkey and the Great Nations 65
a few believers in Europe because the boundless
distances of Asia appear so insignificant on our
maps. Both Governments have, rather, much to
fear, yonder in the East, a common foe, the fanatic-
ism of Islam, and even fifteen years ago, had there
been good- will on both sides, an understanding as
to the boundaries of their dominions was not
unthinkable. To-day it is hardly still possible.
It was for England to suggest such an understand-
ing, since her position in Asia is incomparably more
severely threatened than Russia's new possessions.
What would a defeat in that barbarous country
matter to the Russians? They would lose a few
hundred square miles and win them back a few
years later from the safe back-blocks. For
England, on the contrary, a successful revolt in
the East Indies might have fearful consequences.
It would indeed not break Old England's might --
the power of the Sea- Queen would remain even
then respect- worthy -- but it would deal her a hard
blow and cause a heavy loss to human civilization,
because the Indian countries would be sacrificed
to unknowable civil wars. The task of controlling
hundreds of millions of natives with a few thou-
sand Europeans is immeasurably difficult; the
most important interests imposed it upon the
English Government fearlessly to seek good re-
lations with its inconvenient Northern neighbour.
But England's statesmen and people, obsessed
by the fixed idea of a Russian world-empire,
have outrivalled each other in making this under-
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? 66 Turkey and the Great Nations
standing difficult. Every fresh conquest of the
Russians was greeted by the English Press with
the bitterness of hate. If England sent an agent
to Kashgar, where, rightly speaking, he had no
business to be, it was quite correct; but if Russia
sent an agent to China, where he likewise had no
business to be, the whole of England would cry
out about the unscrupulousness of the Muscovites.
Not only the independent Press, but also more
influential circles indulged in these laments,
which were little suited to the ancient manliness
of the English character. General Rawlinson^s
well-known book, which could hardly have ap-
peared without the silent consent of the Supreme
Indian authority, positively wallows in the art of
painting the devil on the wall. So they kept
continually shouting out to the world that the
Russians were to be feared as enemies, and the
perils of the position were increased thereby.
England's rule in India depends entirely on her
moral prestige; as soon as the inhabitants of the
East Indies begin to suspect that a dreaded foe of
their British masters is approaching the Indus with
superior forces, the bonds of obedience may easily
be loosened. The fear of Russia, openly shown by
the Britons, compelled the Petersburg Court itself
to an unfriendly and occasionally treacherous
policy. It went its way unmoved, and now and
then consoled the anxious neighbouring Power with
dishonest declarations. Without unfair suspicion,
one may to-day venture the theory that the Asiatic
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? Turkey and the Great Nations 67
conquests are not merely an end in themselves
for the Russian Government, but also the means
towards another end: it proposes to make un-
pleasantness for the English in the East Indies
if the fall of the Turkish Empire should lead to a
world-war.
Thus do English statesmen wobble between
obsolete prejudices and anxious cares; self-interest
and a feeling of inward elective affinity make
them seem to the Turks their only true friends.
Their latest deed, the deposition of the Sultan, was
a very clever chess-move, nothing more; it only
proved that England is seriously minded to
maintain her influence on the Bosphorus -- for who
could genuinely believe the edifying fairy-tale
that Czar Alexander wanted to break the union of
the three Emperors, and was only prevented from
conquering Byzantium by England's vigilance?
But we seek in vain for a creative idea in the Tory
Government. It hardly puts the question to
itself, whether the existing status is worthy and
capable of support; it feels ashamed how low
England's renown has sunk during the last decades,
and bestirs itself to call a halt to history by loud-
shouting demonstrations. Can so sterile a policy
expect alHes among the Great Powers. ?
Only once did France really carry out a clear,
definite, good French policy in the Orient: at the
time of its fights against the House of Austria.
The Turks then served her as natural allies.
Since the end of the seventeenth century another
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? 68 Turkey and the Great Nations
path was entered on : France desired a protectorate
over the Latins in the Osman Empire, and eagerly
favoured the Jesuits' propaganda. This ill-
starred policy could only slightly enhance the
prestige of the French Court, considering the small
number of Catholics in Turkey, and entangle it in
incessant quarrels with Russia, which has always
followed the zeal of the Latins for conversion in the
East with vigilant suspicion. After much waver-
ing, Napoleon III then exercised for some years
a guardianship over the Sublime Porte. After his
fall, the Marquis de Vogiie tried yet again to carry
on a Catholic policy at Pera, and found his master
in Prince Bismarck. Since then France has taken
little part in the great diplomatic struggle on the
Bosphorus. We all know what hope slumbers in
every Frenchman's deepest heart, but we also
know that France does not desire the war of
revenge at the present moment. Marshal Mac-
Mahon admits that the reformation of the army
is not yet quite complete, Duke Decazes has given
many proofs of cautious moderation, but the
nation longs to enjoy yet a few years of economic
splendour, which, shaming their conqueror, they
have newly won by marvellous activity. For those
purposes which alone are valuable to the French,
for the conquest of Belgium or a piece of the left
bank of the Rhine, the English fleet can be of little
use to them ; without Austria or Russia as an ally
they do not wish to venture upon the war of re-
venge. France is, besides, a Mediterranean Power,
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? Turkey and the Great Nations 69
and cannot desire the excessive growth of English
influence in the south-east. This latter considera-
tion is also decisive of Italy's attitude. The
reasons which once led Count Cavour into the war
against Russia have long vanished with the
unification of Italy. The young kingdom is on
good terms with the three Eastern Powers, and
will take care not to give up that assured position
for the love of a few English pessimists.
So long as the Alliance of the three Emperors
lasts, there is nothing to fear as to European
peace, and the prospects of the Alliance are still,
as ever, without a shadow. It is of course intelli-
gible that Vienna is visited by a confusion of the
most diverse endeavours ; all the numberless contra-
dictions of parties and races which are embraced
in the Imperial State are being stirred up by the
Eastern Question. The Poles, and a portion of
the Ultramontanes with them, desire war with
Russia; Dictator Langiewicz is intriguing in Con-
stantinople, and Cardinal Ledochowsky is airing
racial hatred at the Holy Seat. In the same
direction are the operations of those Old Conser-
vatives, who even now preach the ancient Metter-
nich maxim that Austria and the Porte are united
in solidarity. But a dense mass of moderate
German Liberals are blowing the same horn;
these people think they are showing their freedom
of thought by the well-known and brilliant remarks
about free England and the barbarians of the
East. On the other hand, at least four parties
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? ^o Turkey and the Great Nations
demand the support of the rebellion and conquests
to the south of the Danube. The Czechs, Serbs,
and Croatians wish to aid their brethren in the
South; an ambitious military party demands,
amid the applause of zealous Great-Austrians, a
consolation prize for the losses of recent years;
a fraction of the Ultramontanes wishes to conquer
Slav country in order to drive the hated Magyars
into a corner; finally, there are imfortunately also
a few blinded German enthusiasts who would like
to enlarge the Imperial State in the East, so that
its western half might fall to the German Empire.
Those, however, who, like us Germans in the
outer Empire, earnestly desire the maintenance of
the Austrian Monarchy and its dual constitution,
must perceive also that Austria to-day neither
can nor may annex anything in Turkey. There is
only conquest yonder in the south-east which
would in itself be advantageous to the Danubian
Empire: Rumania. That precious conquest was
once attainable in Prince Eugene's great days; it
might perhaps even have been achieved by a bold
policy during the Crimean War; to-day it is quite
impossible, owing to the unanimous refusal of
the newly-unified Rumanian people, which can
always lean on Russia for support. The great
hour has unfortunately passed, as once passed the
right moment for the Germanizing of Bohemia,
and so many other alluring opportunities in
Austrian history. The estuary of the Danube
is now as unattainable for Austria as the delta
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? Turkey and the Great Nations 71
of the Rhine for Germany. Any other section of
the Tiirkish dominion, however, would be a
*' Greek gift" for modern Austria. The bound-
aries of the Monarchy towards the south-east
are, even though inconvenient, yet tenable, and
by no means so unnatural as they appear on a
map. The Dalmatian coast looks towards the
West, has belonged for thousands of years to the
Adriatic- Italian world, and has hardly any inter-
course with the pathless mountain-chain of the
back-blocks. The annexation of Bosnia would
strengthen the centrifugal Slavic elements, and
expose the Empire to the danger of dismember-
ment; the crude masses could not be allowed
to take any part either in the Vienna or the
Pesth Reichstag, and the fantastic experiment of
a triad-policy would have to be tried, although
it has been quite sufficiently shown how difficult
it is to maintain even dualism after ten years*
experience.
The task is imposed upon us Germans to uphold
the Three Emperors' Alliance by conciliation and
mediation. We once honestly tried to gain a
respite for the life of the Turkish Empire; the
only reform in Turkey which has been something
of a success, the rebuilding of the army, is the work
of Prussian officers. Yet we cannot shut our eyes
to her impending doom. We find no reason to
accelerate the catastrophe at all. A nation
which has just suffered so severely for its unity
may well say without selfishness: Non omnia
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? ^2 Turkey and the Great Nations
possumus omnes; it is not for us, but for the
South Slavs, to set the ball rolling. But we, too,
dare not remain inactive, and, least of all, console
ourselves with the dull, pessimistic comfort that
the Czar's Empire may, in God's name, grow till it
bursts. We want lasting, endurable conditions in
the Peninsula, which may pacify that part of the
world, and so we want no new foreign domination,
certainly no annexations, either Austrian or
Russian. All good Germans are united in this
resolution, because what may in any way en-
danger Austria's existence, is a blow at our own
Empire.
Our Government has first pledged itself to
guarantee Count Andrassy's Reform proposals.
There is no change in them, even though, owing
to the new Sultan on the Bosphorus, the Three
Emperors' Alliance has been obliged to grant a
longer respite to the new Government. The
Andrassy programme touches with a sure hand
the rawest spots in the Rayah's circumstances.
Germany's prestige is also concerned that the
Porte may not again, as in the case of so many
other proposals, get rid of these well-considered
and moderate ones with empty phrases. If she
does this, or if she proves incapable of fulfilling
her promises, the three Eastern Powers, if they do
not wish to seem ludicrous to the whole world, can
hardly avoid going further and demanding serious
pledges for the abolition of an anarchic state of
affairs which is gradually becoming intolerable to
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? Turkey and the Great Nations 73
all her neighbours, and particularly to Austria.
That they can thus act with an honourable
unanimity seems almost certain ; the quiet hope of
the French, of EngHsh Russophobes, and of the
Ultramontanes for the break-up of the Three
Emperors' Alliance has poor prospects so long as
the Republic exists in France and the Magyars
guide Austria's foreign policy.
Only a seer could determine beforehand the
course of events during the next months. The
growing agitation in Servia, and the energetic
preparations in the Mediterranean, point indeed
to serious events. On the other hand, all the
Powers, especially Russia, are filled with a lively
desire for peace; the Czar's Empire shrinks from
the incalculable disorders which an outburst of
Mohammedan fanaticism threatens to create
everywhere in Asia; the Powers' profound mutual
suspicion disables each force by an opposing force
yonder in the East. It therefore seems possible
that Turkish affairs will still, for a time, drag along
sluggishly and deplorably, and highly probable
that the fate of the capital will not be decided in the
nearest future, because this question is in fact
regarded by all the Powers as not yet ripe for
settlement. We have had very unpleasant experi-
ences of England's friendship since the Seven
Years' War; Russian policy would have to commit
unheard-of follies for Germany to think of drop-
ping the hand of her tried friend in order to throw
herself into the arms of a faithless ally, dominated
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? 74 Turkey and the Great Nations
by obsolete opinions. In the Eastern Question
Russia needs us more than we her; therefore
an astute, strong German policy has nothing to
fear from the Russian alliance.
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? GERMANY AND THE ORIENTAL
QUESTION
BERLIN,
J 5th Dec, i8y6,
"HP HAT changed aspect" of Oriental complica-
1 tions, about which Prince Bismarck did not
wish to pronounce an opinion in the Imperial Diet,
seems to all appearances to be arising very rapidly.
The mobilization of the Army of the South is com-
pleted, the Turkish army is ready to hold the line of
the Danube, and perhaps to cross it. Optimists
still place reliance upon the incontestable per-
sonal love for peace of Czar Alexander, or upon
the arts of mediation of the European Conference ;
and, truly, in the chaos of the Oriental Question
the imexpected has often become possible. But
probability far rather presages the near outbreak
of war. Russia cannot abandon the demand for
serious reforms in favour of the Rayah people
without a humiliation which a healthy State
accepts only from the sword of the victor. The
Porte will not grant those reforms, as, after all the
horrors of the past summer, they can only be
carried through under the protection of Christian
75
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?
dramatic poet is this time not Stratford but Elliot,
and he will be desirous of embellishing the old
play with some new inventions; perhaps he will
really cheer us up with the gallows '-humoiu* of an
Ottoman Parliament. There are enough Catonic
natives among the merchants of the Fanar, as
well as among the Armenian and Greek tax-
farmers; with the aid of the customary baksheesh
the requisite number of loyal Rayah deputies will
assuredly be found. And what a triumph it
would be for Disraeli's diplomacy if it succeeded
in introducing a fresh kind of constitutional
monarchy into Europe's constitutional history,
viz. , parliamentarism tempered by murder! In
what illuminating relief would this picture stand
out in the dithyrambs of the English Press against
the well-known descriptions of the Russian Con-
stitution !
What the Rayahs have to expect from the new
Government the semi-official Oriental correspond-
ence has just confessed in an unguarded moment
of sincerity. Tolerance -- thus it ran -- may be
expected by Christians, but no political rights on
any account from a Sovereign who owes his throne
to the Osmans. That is the truth of the matter.
Even as the Turks formerly replied to the outburst
of the Greek revolution by the murder of the
Patriarch of Constantinople, they have to-day
answered the Bosnio- Bulgarian revolt and the
Serbian war preparations by the Sultan's deposi-
tion. It was an uprising of the old master-race
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? Turkey and the Great Nations 51
which was accompanied by its usual brutahty,
but which was quite respect- worthy of its kind.
The Old and Young Turks are quite united in
their determination to keep their feet on the
Christians' necks. They laugh, rightly too, about
the notion of comfortable persons that the Sultan,
expelled from Stamboul, will presently govern
an incomparably happier Asiatic Empire from
Broussa ; such a rejuvenation of a Power which has
just been disgracefully defeated would be contrary
to all experience of Oriental history. They feel
so safe amid the quarrels between the European
Powers, that doubtless many a Turkish statesman
may quietly wish that Russia might, by a false
step, give the Porte an opportunity for forcing a
war. The new Sultan is already in the middle
thirties; about that time of life the inevitable
results of harem-life are wont rapidly to appear
in the latest generations of Osman's descendants.
Should he, however, remain in the long run more
responsible than his two glorious predecessors,
he can never belie the origin of his government.
With England's help, financial means and military
forces will probably be found so as to overcome the
embarrassments of the moment ; perhaps real satis-
faction will be given for the murder of the two
consuls instead of open contempt. Still, if Allah
bestows his blessings, everything will after all
remain as it is. The Rayahs cannot put any trust
in the Porte's promises so long as there are not
some Christians in the Porte's Ministerial Council
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? 52 Turkey and the Great Nations
-- not corrupt Fanariots, but trusty agents of the
small races -- and such a proposal would now be
simply impossible.
As already stated, one may regard Turkey as a
religious State, but the Padishah is the Caliph
of all the Sunnites, and the Caliphate's mighty
actuaHty will be stronger than a paper promise.
With their customary diplomatic cleverness they
may make the most delightful promises to the
Great Powers, but the valis and kaimakams will
not forget the equally customary and ancient art
of making life sour for the Rayahs, and the English
will again, just as under Stratford's rule, receive
commands to report nothing adverse about the
Turkish administration. So, perhaps, the world
will keep patient until after a few years the Empire
is involved in a fresh crisis. In politics incom-
petence in living is by no means synonymous with
death, as we Germans know by the experiences
of our small States ; and the power of sluggishness
is nowhere greater than in the East.
Will matters really develop so slowly? The
decision depends on the conduct of the Great
Powers.
He who speaks about the Oriental Question with
a great show of moral indignation, ever runs the
risk of being suspected of hypocrisy. It is hardly
edifying to find to-day in part of the German Press
a repetition of English stock speeches against
Muscovite selfishness. Surely it ought to be
taken quite as a matter of course by us honest
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? Turkey and the Great Nations 53
Germans that Russia and England, the two prota-
gonists there in the East, think first of their
own strength, and both are pursuing their purpose
with that complete unscrupulousness which has
been peculiar for thousands of years to all fights
between Powers in the Orient. If you examine
the matter impartially, you cannot deny that
Russia has always judged the character of the
Turkish State, the unchangeableness of that
theocracy, more accurately than most of the other
Powers. In this regard, Petersburg politics was
always superior to its opponents, even at the
periods when they arrogantly underrated the
Turks' power of resistance. The biting irony with
which the Russian Plenipotentiary to the Paris
Congress was wont to accompany the reform-
programmes of the West has met with full justi-
fication in the events of the following decades.
The grounds of this superiority are tolerably
obvious. The Russians are themselves a half-
Eastern people, and are not regarded as Franks by
Moslems; they have been in immemorial inter-
course with Asiatics, understand how to treat their
Mohammedan subjects very skilfully, and formed
earlier than the rest of European peoples a con-
viction about the future of the Balkan countries
which has become a national tradition owing
to two centuries of wars and negotiations. That
the strongest of the Slav Powers, which bears the
Imperial Eagle of Byzantium in its coat-of-arms,
must act so as to expel the Crescent from the
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? 54 Turkey and the Great Nations
Czarograd of the South, requires no elucidation.
Since the Porte by the Peace of Kutchuk-Kainar-
ji had to promise the Petersburg Court to protect
the Christian reHgion and its Churches, Russia
has posed as the lawful protector of the Greek
Christians in Turkey; only an Orthodox Believer
can become Russian Ambassador in Stamboul.
This tendency towards Byzantium is to Russians
what their "manifest destiny" was to the North
Americans, viz. , a political necessity imposed by
the Empire's world-position as well as by the
nation's holiest feelings and memories. In his
Oriental scheming all the Russian's sincere idealism
comes to light, especially the strength of his
religious feeling. It is not only the masses who
revere Holy Russia in their State, but the higher
classes also, despite their Voltairean education,
regard Russiadom and the Orthodox Creed as
synonymous, and there is often to be found in
these circles an enthusiastic veneration for the
''Primary Church of Christendom," which alone
has remained unalterable. A short time ago a
Russian statesman, one of the freest- thinking
heads among his race, wrote to me : ' * In our religion
the Communion Cup remains concealed with a
covering till the moment of transubstantiation ;
the day will come when the covering will also fall
from the Orthodox Church and its Divine contents
will be shown to the world. " I certainly doubt
if the Russian Church has really such a wealth of
hidden moral forces at its disposal; suffice it that
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? Turkey and the Great Nations 55
the inmost being of the State and of popular opin-
ion compels every Czar to maintain the ancient
union with their brother-believers in the South.
But the forms and methods of this policy have
manifoldly changed in rapid sequence; a doctrin-
aire insistence on ready-made programmes is the
last reproach that could be brought against the
realism of Petersburg diplomacy. In the eight-
eenth century Russia was a Power highly danger-
ous to the peace of the world, expanding hugely,
absorbing everything which lay within reach of its
arms; the land-grabbing Cabinet policy of those
days found, naturally, its most audacious expon-
ents in the least-civilized of courts. It would be
well for Russia if she no longer denied to-day what
is a historical fact: that Peter the Great wished
to be buried in Byzantium; that Muennich de-
scribed Turkey as the Czar's assured booty;
that Catherine cherished boundless ideas of
conquest when she negotiated with Joseph II and
Thugut, and had her second grandson baptized
with the name of the Byzantine Emperors; that
the Peace of Kutchuk-Kainarji was carried
out in an extremely violent way, owing to Russia
-- and so on, ad infinitum. The echoes of this
poHcy of conquest could be heard well into our
nineteenth century. For instance, the acquisi-
tion by Czar Nicholas of the mouths of the Danube
was an outrageous attack on the territory of a
foreign Power, which Europe should never have
tolerated. It is only since Alexander II 's Reform
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? 56 Turkey and the Great Nations
Laws that this conquest policy has been given
up. One reform engenders another, every
cut into the ancient injuries of a State exposes
other wounds previously unnoticed; the aboli-
tion of serfdom is no longer enough, the Empire
requries comprehensive agrarian laws, in order
that the free peasant may also obtain inde-
pendent possession of soil. New and unavoid-
able problems for legislation are quickly arising,
and the small number of really educated men
at the disposal of the Government is scarcely
sufficient to solve them all. Moreover, the free
discussions of the last two decades have only just
stirred up in Russia a real national life; even as
they have learnt to adopt as a necessity the new
State-formations of Central Europe, they are also
asking their own government for a national
foreign policy.
And nobody can deny that Czar Alexander has
so far satisfied their claim. The quelling of the Pol-
ish uprising was, despite all the horrors connected
with it, after all only an act of self-defence,
compelled by the Poles' incomprehensible folly, as
well as by the unanimous desire of the Russian
people; and that splendid campaign of conquest,
too, in Central Asia is a national deed, however
paradoxical it may seem. The Russians are not
meeting there, like the Britons in the East Indies,
a very ancient civilization, equal in birth, but
naked barbarism; they appear as the heralds of a
superior civilization, and yet are not imapproach-
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? Turkey and the Great Nations 57
ably alien to the conquered by descent and moral-
ity. The conquest is therefore much easier of
accomplishment, and it needs more rarely, than
was once the case with the East India Company,
those unworthy means which were needed for the
subjection of India. The conqueror may expect,
gradually, to inspire those hordes with his civili-
zation, just as he has already Russified Kazan
and Astrakhan, the Tartars of the Crimea, and the
Kirghiz tribes, yes, even the greater part of the
Caucasus. We Liberals of the West, however,
have gradually grown out of the ridiculous enthus-
iasm of earlier days and begin to perceive that it is
gain for culture when the bestial Circassians,
Luanetians, etc. , become Russians. This tremen-
dous outflow of Slavdom towards the East cannot
stop before the whole boundless regions from the
Amur and the Chinese boundary to the Ural form
a safe commercial dominion. Prince Gortchakof's
well-known phrase, '^Cest done toujours d recom-
mencer^^^ hits the nail on the head.
Now, is it at all credible that a Government
which places before itself so great and difficult and
yet attainable aims, both in its home and foreign
policy, should pursue a Napoleonic adventurer's
policy in the case of Turkey ? The Russians are not
nearer to the Serbs and Greeks than the Germans
to the Danes and English; with the Rumanians
they have absolutely nothing in common except
the Orthodox Creed and that incomplete civili-
zation which distinguishes the whole Slav- Jewish-
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? 58 Turkey and the Great Nations
Wallachian Eastern half of Europe. The morbid
national pride of the small Rayah peoples rejects
scornfully the idea of becoming Russian; the
Greek especially despises the Muscovites as Slavs
and barbarians, although he condescends to use
them for his purposes. Many unpleasant truths
may be enunciated about the lamentable realms
Rumania and Greece; they are not Russian
provinces, much rather are they very jealous of
their national independence. That fanatical Pan-
Slavists long for the conquest of Byzantium is
known to all; but can an intelligent Russian
Government commit itself to such madness. ^ It
does not possess the means of destroying the
deeply-marked nationality of the small Rayah
peoples, it cannot desire to forge yet another
Polish cannon-ball for its feet, and, above all, it
owes its powerful position among the Balkan
States, in great part, to the submissiveness of the
Rayahs and cannot dream of subduing them by
force. Several historical philosophers demon-
strate, with an amount of erudition which would
be worthy of a finer cause, that in the cold North-
ern country life is really quite too uncomfortable,
a natural instinct is impelling the Russians to
exchange these inhospitable regions for the gor-
geous South. At Petersburg, however, people will
be very well aware that a population of 75,000,000
cannot, nowadays, casually start a new migra-
tion and leave the scenes of its thousand-years*
work.
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? Turkey and the Great Nations 59
It is also simply a learned fallacy to gloomily
maintain, in a free version of Alexander I's
notorious phrase, that the Bosphorus is the key to
the Russian house, the Czar's Government must
aim at its possession. After all, the Sound is the
second key to the Russian house, and when has
Russia ever tried to conquer Copenhagen, the
Byzantium of the North? Just as the Petersburg
Court is able to feel quite at ease, now that the
Sound is in the hands of two harmless Middle
Powers, it is likewise naturally only so far interested
in the Bosphorus, viz. , that it should be ruled
by a friendly Orthodox Power. Russia does not
wish to conquer the Bosphorus for itself, because
it has not the necessary power. No European
State, Germany least of all, can tolerate a per-
manent Russian settlement in Stamboul, if only
because of the feverish excitement which would be
bound to flame through all Slav races at such a
movement; and how is it thinkable that they
could maintain themselves there, if a German army
entered Poland, Austria's troops marched over
the Balkans, and an English fleet lay before
SeragHo Point? Who has a right to attribute
such gasconading tricks to the Russian Court?
Emperor Alexander has already proved, since
the beginning of his reign, by the conclusion of the
Paris Treaty how remote such visions are from
him. He was certainly unable to remain per-
manently content with that transaction, and for
good reasons. The plan of the Western Powers, to
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? 6o Turkey and the Great Nations
carry out the reforming of Turkey without and
against Russia, was, as the outcome showed, a sin
against nature and history. Seldom was a victory
less magnanimously and more stupidly exploited
than the truly modest success of Sebastopol.
It is impossible to forbid a mighty Empire to
sail the sea before its coast with warships, and it
is as immoral as was formerly the treaty for the
closing of the Scheldt, and similar products of
the older commercial policy. So shameful a con-
dition is observed by a proud State only so long
as it must be. With regard to such obligations the
mot holds good: "The breach of faith is then more
honourable than the observance. " The blame for
the announcement of that clause of the Paris
Treaty falls solely on the shoulders of the silly
conquerors, who in the intoxication of success
fancied they could impose the impossible on the
conquered; the indignant EngHsh cry about
Russian "breach of faith" found the less echo in
the right feeling of the European world, since
everybody knew the Paris Treaty had already a
long time before been broken in another respect.
Contrary to the Paris Treaty, the union of the
Danubian Principalities had been achieved, and
the Porte positively trampled under foot the
Humayum hat, the preamble of that Treaty.
The aim of Petersburg policy has lately been to
enhance the privileges of the Christian races and
Churches of the Balkan Peninsula and, where
possible, to raise those countries to semi-sovereign
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? Turkey and the Great Nations 6i
States. This was already transparently indicated
in that Gortchakof memorandum of 1867, which
demands the "co-existence par allele'' of the
Rayah peoples, and is still clearer in Russia's
attitude during the Bulgarian Church dispute.
The Russian Court kept formerly always on
terms of good friendship with the Patriarch of
Byzantium; it has now eagerly encouraged the
separation of the Bulgarian National Church from
the Patriarchate. It no longer makes a formal
claim of solely representing the Orthodox in
Turkey, but it is now, as it was formerly, the only
Power that can do anything for the Rayahs. Of
course the people in Petersburg have their arriere-
pensee: they desire, if possible, a powerless group
of small States in the Balkans, so that Russian
influence may alone be dominant there. On that
account, Russia formerly opposed the creation of
the independent Kingdom of Greece, and hoped
far more for the formation of three semi-sovereign
Principalities at the Southern point of the Penin-
sula; therefore, also, the union of Moldavia
and Wallachia ran counter to Petersburg views.
The root idea of Russian policy is, however, quite
justified ; apart from the autonomy of the territories,
there is in very truth no longer any way of secur-
ing the rights of the Rayahs. And as Russia is
certainly not in a position to arrange Eastern
affairs solely according to her will and pleasure,
the task is laid upon her Western allies to remove
the sting from the Russian plans.
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? 62 Turkey and the Great Nations
Just as the Petersburg Court long ago agreed
to acknowledge the Kingdom of Greece and the
Unified Rumanian State, it will also some time or
other, if Europe requires it, be obliged to allow the
enlargement of the Kingdom of Greece. Even
the collapse of Osman rule in Stamboul, which at
the moment is still quite out of sight, yet will
assuredly take place presently, cannot fill us with
blind fright if we calmly weigh the relations of
the Powers to-day. United Germany, honourably
reconciled to Austria, is very well able to see that
this catastrophe, if it must occur, shall occur under
circumstances which the West can accept. How,
pray, do the Anglo-maniacs know that a Greco-
Slav State on the Bosphorus must necessarily fall
under Russia's influence? That decayed, sucked-
out Byzantine Society altogether affords within a
conceivable future no soil for a menacing develop-
ment of might ; the natural opposition of interests,
the Greeks' deep hatred for the Russians, would
be bound to crop up very soon, and European
diplomacy would assuredly not be disposed to leave
the field to the Russians alone, there on the Golden
Horn, where it has contended for many decades
and devised schemes and played the master. No
tenable reason is at the root of the theory that the
destruction of the Osman State must needs level
the path for that Russian world-empire of which
the Anglo-maniacs dream. But the great idea
which Russia represents, in accordance with her
historic position in the Orient, the re-introduction
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?
Turkey and the Great Nations 63
of the Greco-Slav States into the European com-
munity, may certainly rely upon the future. The
Nature of things is working for it. Every bloody
deed in the Sultan's Palace, and every prosperous
voyage of daring Greek shipowners, works into
the hands of that idea. The Turkish apple of the
Hesperides is already beginning to plague Europe
with its odour ; the day must come when the rotten
fruit shall fall to earth. The Petersburg Court
has no occasion to endanger an assured future
by premature steps; it may quietly say: We can
wait.
England, however, cannot wait. A policy which
tries, after the manner of Prince Metternich, to up-
hold only what exists, because it exists, lives from
hand to mouth ; it requires loud comedy from time
to time in order to show the world that it is really
still alive and knows how to defend threatened
Europe from imaginary dangers. Four points of
view in especial seem to guide this wretched policy.
People living in the lucky aloofness of the wealthy
island have still preserved an obsolete conception
of European balance, and torment their brains with
nightmares which have lost all raison d'etre since
the Italian and the German revolutions. They
worry themselves about the Mediterranean sea-
fortresses, and do not perceive that England's
incomparable merchant service is bound to main-
tain the upper hand in the Mediterranean even if
those positions return to their natural masters -- a
trend of events which, moreover, is still at a mea-
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? 64 Turkey and the Great Nations
sureless distance from us. They want to uphold
the Osman Empire at any cost, because the Turks*
ludicrous trade-policy has opened a boundless
hunting-ground to the English merchant. Us-
ing some foresight, they could surely say to them-
selves that the restoration of tolerable political
conditions in the Balkan Peninsula is bound
necessarily to revive the commerce of those
countries, and consequently to confer advantage
on the chief commercial people in the world.
Monopolists, however, have ever preferred a small
capital with big gains to moderate gains with
bigger capital. Glad of the momentary benefit,
they swear again to Palmerston's expression:
*'I talk with no statesman who does not regard
the maintenance of Turkey as a European neces-
sity," and they forget that the same Palmerston
declared in his last years: "We shall not draw
the sword for a corpse a second time. "
They are afraid in London that Russia might
dominate the Suez Canal from Stamboul, and
they want, by means of favour shown to the
Caliph, to keep the Moslems of Hindustan in a
good humour and protect them against Muscovite
wiles. He who does not regard the Russian
campaign in Central Asia through the pessimistic
glasses of M. Vambery, but with independent
judgment, will indeed ask why England should
worry about it at all. That Russia should casually
pocket the 200,000,000 heads of the Anglo-Indian
Empire is surely but a bad joke, which finds only
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? Turkey and the Great Nations 65
a few believers in Europe because the boundless
distances of Asia appear so insignificant on our
maps. Both Governments have, rather, much to
fear, yonder in the East, a common foe, the fanatic-
ism of Islam, and even fifteen years ago, had there
been good- will on both sides, an understanding as
to the boundaries of their dominions was not
unthinkable. To-day it is hardly still possible.
It was for England to suggest such an understand-
ing, since her position in Asia is incomparably more
severely threatened than Russia's new possessions.
What would a defeat in that barbarous country
matter to the Russians? They would lose a few
hundred square miles and win them back a few
years later from the safe back-blocks. For
England, on the contrary, a successful revolt in
the East Indies might have fearful consequences.
It would indeed not break Old England's might --
the power of the Sea- Queen would remain even
then respect- worthy -- but it would deal her a hard
blow and cause a heavy loss to human civilization,
because the Indian countries would be sacrificed
to unknowable civil wars. The task of controlling
hundreds of millions of natives with a few thou-
sand Europeans is immeasurably difficult; the
most important interests imposed it upon the
English Government fearlessly to seek good re-
lations with its inconvenient Northern neighbour.
But England's statesmen and people, obsessed
by the fixed idea of a Russian world-empire,
have outrivalled each other in making this under-
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? 66 Turkey and the Great Nations
standing difficult. Every fresh conquest of the
Russians was greeted by the English Press with
the bitterness of hate. If England sent an agent
to Kashgar, where, rightly speaking, he had no
business to be, it was quite correct; but if Russia
sent an agent to China, where he likewise had no
business to be, the whole of England would cry
out about the unscrupulousness of the Muscovites.
Not only the independent Press, but also more
influential circles indulged in these laments,
which were little suited to the ancient manliness
of the English character. General Rawlinson^s
well-known book, which could hardly have ap-
peared without the silent consent of the Supreme
Indian authority, positively wallows in the art of
painting the devil on the wall. So they kept
continually shouting out to the world that the
Russians were to be feared as enemies, and the
perils of the position were increased thereby.
England's rule in India depends entirely on her
moral prestige; as soon as the inhabitants of the
East Indies begin to suspect that a dreaded foe of
their British masters is approaching the Indus with
superior forces, the bonds of obedience may easily
be loosened. The fear of Russia, openly shown by
the Britons, compelled the Petersburg Court itself
to an unfriendly and occasionally treacherous
policy. It went its way unmoved, and now and
then consoled the anxious neighbouring Power with
dishonest declarations. Without unfair suspicion,
one may to-day venture the theory that the Asiatic
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? Turkey and the Great Nations 67
conquests are not merely an end in themselves
for the Russian Government, but also the means
towards another end: it proposes to make un-
pleasantness for the English in the East Indies
if the fall of the Turkish Empire should lead to a
world-war.
Thus do English statesmen wobble between
obsolete prejudices and anxious cares; self-interest
and a feeling of inward elective affinity make
them seem to the Turks their only true friends.
Their latest deed, the deposition of the Sultan, was
a very clever chess-move, nothing more; it only
proved that England is seriously minded to
maintain her influence on the Bosphorus -- for who
could genuinely believe the edifying fairy-tale
that Czar Alexander wanted to break the union of
the three Emperors, and was only prevented from
conquering Byzantium by England's vigilance?
But we seek in vain for a creative idea in the Tory
Government. It hardly puts the question to
itself, whether the existing status is worthy and
capable of support; it feels ashamed how low
England's renown has sunk during the last decades,
and bestirs itself to call a halt to history by loud-
shouting demonstrations. Can so sterile a policy
expect alHes among the Great Powers. ?
Only once did France really carry out a clear,
definite, good French policy in the Orient: at the
time of its fights against the House of Austria.
The Turks then served her as natural allies.
Since the end of the seventeenth century another
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? 68 Turkey and the Great Nations
path was entered on : France desired a protectorate
over the Latins in the Osman Empire, and eagerly
favoured the Jesuits' propaganda. This ill-
starred policy could only slightly enhance the
prestige of the French Court, considering the small
number of Catholics in Turkey, and entangle it in
incessant quarrels with Russia, which has always
followed the zeal of the Latins for conversion in the
East with vigilant suspicion. After much waver-
ing, Napoleon III then exercised for some years
a guardianship over the Sublime Porte. After his
fall, the Marquis de Vogiie tried yet again to carry
on a Catholic policy at Pera, and found his master
in Prince Bismarck. Since then France has taken
little part in the great diplomatic struggle on the
Bosphorus. We all know what hope slumbers in
every Frenchman's deepest heart, but we also
know that France does not desire the war of
revenge at the present moment. Marshal Mac-
Mahon admits that the reformation of the army
is not yet quite complete, Duke Decazes has given
many proofs of cautious moderation, but the
nation longs to enjoy yet a few years of economic
splendour, which, shaming their conqueror, they
have newly won by marvellous activity. For those
purposes which alone are valuable to the French,
for the conquest of Belgium or a piece of the left
bank of the Rhine, the English fleet can be of little
use to them ; without Austria or Russia as an ally
they do not wish to venture upon the war of re-
venge. France is, besides, a Mediterranean Power,
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? Turkey and the Great Nations 69
and cannot desire the excessive growth of English
influence in the south-east. This latter considera-
tion is also decisive of Italy's attitude. The
reasons which once led Count Cavour into the war
against Russia have long vanished with the
unification of Italy. The young kingdom is on
good terms with the three Eastern Powers, and
will take care not to give up that assured position
for the love of a few English pessimists.
So long as the Alliance of the three Emperors
lasts, there is nothing to fear as to European
peace, and the prospects of the Alliance are still,
as ever, without a shadow. It is of course intelli-
gible that Vienna is visited by a confusion of the
most diverse endeavours ; all the numberless contra-
dictions of parties and races which are embraced
in the Imperial State are being stirred up by the
Eastern Question. The Poles, and a portion of
the Ultramontanes with them, desire war with
Russia; Dictator Langiewicz is intriguing in Con-
stantinople, and Cardinal Ledochowsky is airing
racial hatred at the Holy Seat. In the same
direction are the operations of those Old Conser-
vatives, who even now preach the ancient Metter-
nich maxim that Austria and the Porte are united
in solidarity. But a dense mass of moderate
German Liberals are blowing the same horn;
these people think they are showing their freedom
of thought by the well-known and brilliant remarks
about free England and the barbarians of the
East. On the other hand, at least four parties
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? ^o Turkey and the Great Nations
demand the support of the rebellion and conquests
to the south of the Danube. The Czechs, Serbs,
and Croatians wish to aid their brethren in the
South; an ambitious military party demands,
amid the applause of zealous Great-Austrians, a
consolation prize for the losses of recent years;
a fraction of the Ultramontanes wishes to conquer
Slav country in order to drive the hated Magyars
into a corner; finally, there are imfortunately also
a few blinded German enthusiasts who would like
to enlarge the Imperial State in the East, so that
its western half might fall to the German Empire.
Those, however, who, like us Germans in the
outer Empire, earnestly desire the maintenance of
the Austrian Monarchy and its dual constitution,
must perceive also that Austria to-day neither
can nor may annex anything in Turkey. There is
only conquest yonder in the south-east which
would in itself be advantageous to the Danubian
Empire: Rumania. That precious conquest was
once attainable in Prince Eugene's great days; it
might perhaps even have been achieved by a bold
policy during the Crimean War; to-day it is quite
impossible, owing to the unanimous refusal of
the newly-unified Rumanian people, which can
always lean on Russia for support. The great
hour has unfortunately passed, as once passed the
right moment for the Germanizing of Bohemia,
and so many other alluring opportunities in
Austrian history. The estuary of the Danube
is now as unattainable for Austria as the delta
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? Turkey and the Great Nations 71
of the Rhine for Germany. Any other section of
the Tiirkish dominion, however, would be a
*' Greek gift" for modern Austria. The bound-
aries of the Monarchy towards the south-east
are, even though inconvenient, yet tenable, and
by no means so unnatural as they appear on a
map. The Dalmatian coast looks towards the
West, has belonged for thousands of years to the
Adriatic- Italian world, and has hardly any inter-
course with the pathless mountain-chain of the
back-blocks. The annexation of Bosnia would
strengthen the centrifugal Slavic elements, and
expose the Empire to the danger of dismember-
ment; the crude masses could not be allowed
to take any part either in the Vienna or the
Pesth Reichstag, and the fantastic experiment of
a triad-policy would have to be tried, although
it has been quite sufficiently shown how difficult
it is to maintain even dualism after ten years*
experience.
The task is imposed upon us Germans to uphold
the Three Emperors' Alliance by conciliation and
mediation. We once honestly tried to gain a
respite for the life of the Turkish Empire; the
only reform in Turkey which has been something
of a success, the rebuilding of the army, is the work
of Prussian officers. Yet we cannot shut our eyes
to her impending doom. We find no reason to
accelerate the catastrophe at all. A nation
which has just suffered so severely for its unity
may well say without selfishness: Non omnia
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? ^2 Turkey and the Great Nations
possumus omnes; it is not for us, but for the
South Slavs, to set the ball rolling. But we, too,
dare not remain inactive, and, least of all, console
ourselves with the dull, pessimistic comfort that
the Czar's Empire may, in God's name, grow till it
bursts. We want lasting, endurable conditions in
the Peninsula, which may pacify that part of the
world, and so we want no new foreign domination,
certainly no annexations, either Austrian or
Russian. All good Germans are united in this
resolution, because what may in any way en-
danger Austria's existence, is a blow at our own
Empire.
Our Government has first pledged itself to
guarantee Count Andrassy's Reform proposals.
There is no change in them, even though, owing
to the new Sultan on the Bosphorus, the Three
Emperors' Alliance has been obliged to grant a
longer respite to the new Government. The
Andrassy programme touches with a sure hand
the rawest spots in the Rayah's circumstances.
Germany's prestige is also concerned that the
Porte may not again, as in the case of so many
other proposals, get rid of these well-considered
and moderate ones with empty phrases. If she
does this, or if she proves incapable of fulfilling
her promises, the three Eastern Powers, if they do
not wish to seem ludicrous to the whole world, can
hardly avoid going further and demanding serious
pledges for the abolition of an anarchic state of
affairs which is gradually becoming intolerable to
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? Turkey and the Great Nations 73
all her neighbours, and particularly to Austria.
That they can thus act with an honourable
unanimity seems almost certain ; the quiet hope of
the French, of EngHsh Russophobes, and of the
Ultramontanes for the break-up of the Three
Emperors' Alliance has poor prospects so long as
the Republic exists in France and the Magyars
guide Austria's foreign policy.
Only a seer could determine beforehand the
course of events during the next months. The
growing agitation in Servia, and the energetic
preparations in the Mediterranean, point indeed
to serious events. On the other hand, all the
Powers, especially Russia, are filled with a lively
desire for peace; the Czar's Empire shrinks from
the incalculable disorders which an outburst of
Mohammedan fanaticism threatens to create
everywhere in Asia; the Powers' profound mutual
suspicion disables each force by an opposing force
yonder in the East. It therefore seems possible
that Turkish affairs will still, for a time, drag along
sluggishly and deplorably, and highly probable
that the fate of the capital will not be decided in the
nearest future, because this question is in fact
regarded by all the Powers as not yet ripe for
settlement. We have had very unpleasant experi-
ences of England's friendship since the Seven
Years' War; Russian policy would have to commit
unheard-of follies for Germany to think of drop-
ping the hand of her tried friend in order to throw
herself into the arms of a faithless ally, dominated
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? 74 Turkey and the Great Nations
by obsolete opinions. In the Eastern Question
Russia needs us more than we her; therefore
an astute, strong German policy has nothing to
fear from the Russian alliance.
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? GERMANY AND THE ORIENTAL
QUESTION
BERLIN,
J 5th Dec, i8y6,
"HP HAT changed aspect" of Oriental complica-
1 tions, about which Prince Bismarck did not
wish to pronounce an opinion in the Imperial Diet,
seems to all appearances to be arising very rapidly.
The mobilization of the Army of the South is com-
pleted, the Turkish army is ready to hold the line of
the Danube, and perhaps to cross it. Optimists
still place reliance upon the incontestable per-
sonal love for peace of Czar Alexander, or upon
the arts of mediation of the European Conference ;
and, truly, in the chaos of the Oriental Question
the imexpected has often become possible. But
probability far rather presages the near outbreak
of war. Russia cannot abandon the demand for
serious reforms in favour of the Rayah people
without a humiliation which a healthy State
accepts only from the sword of the victor. The
Porte will not grant those reforms, as, after all the
horrors of the past summer, they can only be
carried through under the protection of Christian
75
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?
