No More Learning

Oil earnings were half the 2013 peak last year at $1. 5 billion, and cocoa exports continue to draw $2 billion in syndicated loans with arranger banks emphasizing relationships rather than crop resurgence. International lines have been in the sector forefront as domestic counterparts battle with 20 percent bad loan portfolios that forced the central bank to close two institutions in August and transfer them to state-run Ghana Commercial Bank, a heavyweight stock exchange listing, with the MSCI frontier index up 70 percent through the third quarter after a prolonged slump. Banks are also absorbing the impact of local debt swaps to reduce costs and extend tenors, as $2. 5 billion in new issuance will tackle energy arrears and inject liquidity. Total global obligations are $30 billion and servicing drains one-third of government revenue, but the currency is no longer in free fall after an IMF program and inflation is near single-digits at 12 percent. Fiscal discipline is the centerpiece of the Fund accord recently stretched to 2019, with this year’s deficit estimated at 6 percent of GDP as “ghost workers” were dropped from the official payroll and a new digital identification system is to incorporate informal tax evaders. President Akufo-Addo, whose father held the post after independence, campaigned on a pro-business platform and named well-known former investment bankers to the Finance Ministry. However the World Bank Doing Business ranking is 110, and the President has come under criticism for minister sprawl as he rewarded over 100 appointees associated with his party and decades of political life. Relations with China are also controversial, as his team cracked down on small-scale gold miners after complaints from mainland operators and set ambitions as a sub-regional rail hub with Chinese borrowing and technology.

The move is widely viewed as a West Africa challenge to giant Nigeria, where President Buhari has been on medical leave abroad and secessionist stirrings in Biafra have reignited with the anemic 2 percent growth rate and Boko Haram pillaging and terror. Since April the foreign exchange crunch has eased with more regular auctions for essential imports, and foreign investors have crept back into Treasury instruments with nominal 15 percent yields despite eviction from the main JP Morgan index. The MSCI stock gauge in turn has rebounded 25 percent through September on stronger oil prices boosting reserves, and likelihood that the President may step aside before the end of his term in 2019 and in a history repeat from the last administration transfer power to his more dynamic and economics-savvy vice president. In East Africa Kenya has also gained 25 percent on the frontier index as the presidential contest is replayed in mid-October after a constitutional court found evidence of vote hacking and count irregularities in the original exercise. The ruling was hailed as a democracy triumph in good governance circles, but spooked the business community with another round of uncertainty and potential large-scale violence between rival tribal candidate camps. Blue-chip Safaricom announced expansion plans in Ethiopia as a strategy response despite the glaringly more questionable free-election path.



Exotic Sovereigns’ Pedestrian Sustainability Sense
2017 October 15 by admin

Posted in: General Emerging Markets
The dozen countries in JP Morgan’s frontier NEXGEM index continue to outstrip the main external bond gauges as spreads over US Treasuries are at a decade thin 100 basis points, as public debt jumped an average almost 15 percent over the period to 70 percent, resurrecting sustainability fears after large official relief programs. Economic growth and exchange rate stress testing suggests medium term deleveraging could stabilize ratios, and domestic borrowing would increase its relative portion. However levels in Ghana, Jamaica, Mongolia and Ukraine would rise 5-15 percent and translate into higher spreads under normal differentiation, which may not apply currently with sloshing global liquidity and investor positions remaining underweight. Since last year fundamentals have “decoupled,” but the relationship with most specific credits has held up since index introduction, according to the sponsor. In Central America and the Caribbean Moody’s downgraded Costa Rica in February one notch to lower speculative status, a further slip from the previous investment-grade rating. Another blow looms on the horizon with promised fiscal consolidation failing to balance spending and revenue with debt/output already at 65 percent. The government is hamstrung entering next year’s election with control of only one-fifth of legislative seats. Earmarks take up 90 percent of appropriations, and despite announcement of a “budget emergency” and likely wider foreign investment scope for local debt decisive action will await the new administration. The Dominican Republic in contrast was upgraded in September after a well-received $500 million international issue, with debt-to-GDP twenty points less and 5 percent growth on track, with good remittances and tourism before the spate of area hurricanes. Ecuador’s public debt doubled the past five years with oil price collapse and heavy state infrastructure and social outlays. Its main overseas creditor was China until market return in 2014, and President Moreno has yet to signal a break from the loose purse strings of his predecessor and socialist policy champion Correa. The Vice President has been implicated in another Odebrecht bribery scandal around previous construction projects, and dollarization is set to continue with business and financial community support despite populist backlash. Major external bond maturities are not due until end-decade, and relations have resumed with the IMF for possible emergencies beyond a recent earthquake when it was tapped for aid.

El Salvador’s debt stands at 65 percent of GDP and the two main political parties have been at loggerheads over pension reform after missed payments. The opposition recently managed a compromise to hike the contribution rate to 15 percent and extend retirement age over time. The net present value of liabilities is still estimated at 90 percent of national income only expanding at a 2 percent annual pace. Private pension funds must buy the government notes to cover obligations, potentially subjecting them to portfolio and default risks. Jamaica with its world-beating 120% of GDP load has been under IMF supervision for five years, and completed a series of local and foreign debt swaps. A three-year $1. 5 billion standby was inked in 2016, and the local dollar continues to depreciate as more flexible currency and inflation-targeting regimes are adopted. A 5 percent-plus budget primary surplus has been regularly achieved but the wage bill has been pared back slowly amid glacial 1% growth.

Household Debt’s Untidy Room Ramifications
2017 October 15 by admin

Posted in: Global Banking
The IMF’s fall Global Financial Stability Report cited the development contribution of rising emerging economy household debt the past decade to a median 20 percent of GDP, one-third the industrial world level, but cautioned about longer term recession and crisis scenarios as deleveraging occurs with overhangs. Developing countries may be “less prepared” to handle the squeeze with institutional limits such as missing personal bankruptcy codes. For the highest debt quartile the average was one-third of GDP in 2016, in part due to cross-border liquidity expansion from loose monetary policy. Credit access can lift domestic demand and consumer wealth, but future adjustment may be sharper with global interest rates around zero for so long. Housing and other investment returns may not meet expectations and borrowing often goes for non-productive purposes. From the supply side bank balance sheets can suffer, and risks be exacerbated with foreign currency-denominated loans. Ratios are under 10 percent of GDP in Argentina, Egypt, the Philippines and Ukraine; and over 50 percent in Malaysia, South Africa and Thailand. One-third the total is mortgages and most are recourse-based, allowing other family collateral seizure upon default. In advanced economies Australia and Canada stand out for their breakneck pace beyond historical norms, and leading emerging markets Chile, China and Poland have also built up fast. Since 2008 the yearly clip was 6. 5 percent, well over output growth. Low income households are typically excluded in early industry stages but often turn to micro-finance sources that may not be tracked or regulated. Econometric models indicate that a 5 percent household debt increase over 3 years will halve future growth over the same period. The drag is mainly due to the mortgage element that accompanies house value correction, especially in emerging markets with narrower asset class diversification. An open capital account and fixed exchange rate heighten risks, including banking crisis probability that spikes at 65 percent of GDP, according to empirical work. Financial sector depth and quality bank oversight can cushion the medium-term negative correlation, and stricter capital requirements and dividend suspension may be effective counters. Shared credit registries and education to ward off predatory practices are important steps, the Fund asserts. Macro-prudential measures, such as on loan-to-value and debt-service-to-income, and consumer protection rules are valuable. Mortgage contracts can also be designed for more risk-sharing and resets in the event of extreme circumstances, the chapter suggests.

South Africa’s multinational banking groups have been targeted by ruling party and anti-poverty activists for loan forgiveness, amid accusations of deceptive and punitive rates, as debt burdens have wracked private consumption. A dedicated retail provider with close ties to them was forced to shut down with an extreme portfolio and capital gap, as the central bank now comes under broad pressure to focus less on financial stability than economic aid. Lawmakers reportedly are considering charter changes which would mandate stronger defense of average savers. International financial services firms have likewise come under harsh view with questionable allegiance to the business elite lodged in families with fortunes often predating independence and the end of apartheid. A newcomer clan, the Guptas of Indian background, allegedly worked with foreign auditors and management consultants to misrepresent its company accounts and wangle insider deals with the Zuma administration leaving a household odor.

Stocks’ Crisis Retrospective Run-Ups
2017 October 9 by admin

Posted in: General Emerging Markets
Thirty years after the 1987 New York Stock exchange 25 percent crash and a decade on from the 2008 financial crisis, MSCI core and frontier indices turned in respective 25 percent and 20 percent gains through Q3 for the best performance since 2010. Only Russia and Gulf country indices under trade and financial boycotts were down, alongside refugee emergency-hit Jordan and Lebanon, recent main gauge returnee Pakistan and tiny Botswana. The BRIC component overall was superior with a 30 percent advance, while Poland (+45 percent) led the big roster and Argentina and Ghana on the other one were ahead 60-70 percent. Zimbabwe recorded a stratospheric 250 percent jump through September with the stock exchange the only outlet to preserve savings, with draconian bank deposit withdrawal limits and new borrowing from the African Export-Import Bank to inject emergency dollars. China “A” shares after MSCI’s marginal index addition have surged to almost narrow the gap with the broader mainland 40 percent increase ahead of the Party Congress due to reappoint President Xi and his designated team, which could include well-known economic reformers and technocrats. On the eve monetary policy was loosened through a reserve requirement nudge for dedicated small business credit, as authorities seek otherwise to cap real-estate related personal lending.

Elsewhere in Asia Korea (+30 percent) brushed off border bellicosity, amid harsh rhetoric from Pyongyang against Seoul and the US and a series of test nuclear missile launches. Tech firms were in a sweet spot in the earnings and global manufacturing cycle, helping to overcome Chinese restrictions on consumer goods and Washington’s threat to renegotiate its bilateral trade pact. India (+22. 5 percent) faded on demonetization and national sales tax hangovers which have crushed average entrepreneurs and assembly operations, while Indonesia was another 10 percent behind as religion and politics mixed more dangerously with loud calls for more action to protect the Muslim minority Rohingya fleeing Myanmar for makeshift camps in Bangladesh, where the market rose almost 10 percent.

In Latin America Brazil (+25 percent) roared back during the quarter after lagging, as investors were spared a second impeachment even though President Temer remains under criminal investigation for alleged bribery and his party and allies are unlikely to pass overdue state pension cutbacks to restrain the 10 percent of GDP fiscal deficit. Mexico had the same showing as Pemex private sector exploration auctions proved popular and NAFTA reworking talks appeared to dismiss total breakup with Canada’s views closely aligned. Chile (+30 percent) was at the crest before the first round of presidential elections likely to return free market business magnate Pinera to the post. In Europe behind Poland, Hungary and Turkey each climbed over 25 percent on domestic demand juiced by state lending programs as relations further soured with the EU. Prime Minister Orban has defied Brussels on immigration quotas and President Erdogan accuses it of reneging on visa-free travel promised in exchange for additional Syrian refugee acceptance on transfer from Greece. There after Europe’s biggest run last year improvement is just over 10 percent as banks await another cycle of asset reviews which may reflect crisis respite short of repair to again rouse international community urgency.

Refugee Bonds’ Bangladesh Rohingya Crisis Bound
2017 October 9 by admin

Posted in: Asia
With almost half of Myanmar’s one million Muslim Rohingya population already pouring into next-door Bangladesh by land and sea to flee military and Buddhist civilian attacks, host government prime minister Sheikh Hasina and her ruling Awami League party have appealed to the international community for help in defraying the annual costs of the mass influx, estimated by a local economist at $800 million-$1 billion. The Rohingya have long fled their homes in Rakhine state, where they are denied citizenship, for South Asia including India and Pakistan as well as Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, and the refugees have both integrated into urban and rural cities and been isolated in separate camps and centers. Domestic budgets have largely absorbed the costs, and wealthier East Asia’s fiscal positions have left them in better shape to receive “boat people” waves not experienced since Indochina’s post war aftermath four decades ago, when global relief and resettlement agencies took joint publically-funded action. In the current crisis regional officials have no such mechanism for quick collective response but they could call on financial markets which have since developed, and conventional and Islamic-style sukuk bonds in particular promoted under the Asian Development Bank’s aegis, to promptly raise the billions of dollars needed in Bangladesh and elsewhere as specialized refugee instruments.

Bangladesh’s capital markets are “underdeveloped,” according to the IMF’s June Article IV report, and its external sovereign bond and stock market skidded with the displaced person arrival, from a 5% MSCI frontier index gain through August. No facilities or supplies were in place to accommodate hundreds of thousands of Rohingya amid the already poor physical and social infrastructure even though the country has graduated to lower middle-income status with per capita income at over $1500 now surpassing Pakistan’s, as touted in an Economist magazine article. Despite recent monsoon rains which again claimed hundreds of lives and vast crop land, GDP growth is projected again this fiscal year at 7% as textile exports and Gulf remittances regain double digit increases. In July and August they each were up 15% to almost $7 billion and $13 billion respectively, although garment prices dropped overall and the remittance number was skewed by the Eid holiday celebration. Private investment remains weak at under 25% of GDP, and a bill has been submitted to parliament to create a “one stop shop” to lift Bangladesh from the bottom of World Bank Doing Business ranking.

Inflation approaches the economic growth pace with higher food prices, but the central bank has kept the benchmark interest rate on hold. The budget deficit forecast is 5%, but a new value added tax has been introduced and public debt is stable at 40% of GDP. The current account is roughly in balance and international reserves over $30 billion cover nine months of imports, but a proposed sovereign wealth fund would initially take $2 billion from the pool. The exchange rate has softened slightly in nominal terms to above 80/dollar with selective official intervention, and the IMF urged more flexibility as a priority Article IV recommendation.

Banking sector problems, with a 25% bad loan ratio at state-owned units with one-quarter of system assets, are a major chokehold on broader financial market development. Capital adequacy is low at 6%, and it is still tied up in stock market investment after a crash five years ago prompted regulators to order reduced exposure. Government influence harms bank performance, and the Capital Market Master Plan adopted in the wake of the 2011 crash has a large unfinished agenda, including on mutual and pension fund and corporate bond launch, the IMF survey admonished.

Bangladesh may be limited in designing and supporting refugee bond issuance on its own, but could turn to the Asian Development Bank for credit enhancement and technical assistance and also team with neighbors like Malaysia in particular. It hosts a sizable Rohingya contingent and is the biggest sukuk center, accounting for over half the $60 billion total worldwide through the first half, and Prime Minister Najib Rezak raised the issue as a financial and security challenge during his White House visit last week. The Middle East with its Syrian displaced population has shown interest in such capital market innovation, but Asia with its decades of experience with bond promotion and greater depth could commission immediate pilot projects corresponding to Rohingya crisis urgency.





Saudi Arabia’s Dulled Driving Ambitions
2017 October 2 by admin

Posted in: MENA
Saudis shares stayed mildly positive on the MSCI index, as another big sovereign bond issue was prepared to avoid dipping into reserves and Vision 2030 economic overhaul targets were pared back amid reports of political purges within the ruling royal family. A modernizing wing could claim traction as women finally won the right to drive autos after years of protest, although it will not take effect until next year as religious conservatives vow to scuttle the decision. Aramco is still plodding ahead on its IPO as oil reserves are audited and balance sheet information may then dribble out once international listing locations are finalized. Only a 5% stake will be offered, but the megadeal has spawned a raft of other Gulf state energy company taps as over 30 IPOs worth $1. 5 billion were completed through September, more than in 2015 and 2016 together. By contrast Moody’s estimates another $30 billion in external bond sales after last year’s debuts. Even with petroleum prices at $50/barrel to moderate the fiscal deficit, it will come in around $50 billion on 1-2% GDP growth, as the National Transformation Program Prince Mohammed bin Salman introduced in 2016 with global management consultant advice was forced to “adjust and adapt” after state employee allowances were reinstated. Domestic energy subsidies were to be cut further in July, but officials have turned wary with unemployment at 12. 5 percent and opted instead to concentrate on promoting private sector-led industrial projects. Privatization deadlines have also slipped to the end of the plan period although a dedicated agency was created, and foreign ownership was liberalized for the education and health sectors while curbs remain on stock exchange access. MSCI dashed core roster graduation hopes in its last review, when it urged authorities to lift quotas and also modernize law and regulation for investor protection.

On that front with specific application to Islamic finance, the showdown between UAE-based Dana Gas and its bondholders on the fate of a $700 million sukuk is under close scrutiny. The company missed payments in the past on contract arrears in Iraq’s Kurdish province, which recently voted for independence in a referendum, and seeks to unilaterally restructure the instrument on the basis of retroactive noncompliance with Shariah code. Attorneys and religious scholars have waded into the fight waged at London’s Royal Court, with global houses like BlackRock maintaining big positions. The saga has cast a market pall with an issuance halt and higher yields, and after the London battle a UAE tribunal will pass judgment in December. The imbroglio has a diplomatic equivalent with the Gulf Cooperation Council member boycott against Qatar for alleged Iran and terrorist sympathies. Both sides have waged aggressive international media campaigns, and Moody’s calculates a 25 percent of GDP cost since embargo launch in June, with $30 billion in capital outflows including 10 percent banking system deposit withdrawal. Trade dropped 40 percent, with two-thirds of construction materials routed through Saudi Arabia and the UAE for offshore gas and football World Cup projects. US and Kuwait mediation attempts failed, and the sovereign rating outlook turned negative as the agency report cited an indefinite pause in regional infrastructure and capital market development drivers.

Ukraine’s Backward Leaning Liability Lull
2017 October 2 by admin

Posted in: Europe
After a Moody’s ratings upgrade from the low junk category, Ukraine bonds rallied on a post-default market return as $3 billion in issuance split between rollover and new money was doubly oversubscribed at a 7. 5 percent yield around the current secondary level. Buyers seemed to slough off concerns about the war with Russia, which won initial judgment in London for payments outstanding under the previous regime, and the 2015 20 percent haircut as the transaction followed a string of other far frontier sovereign bond taps including Iraq and Tajikistan. President Poroshenko called it “unbelievably positive” and the Finance Minister “transformational” despite lapses in the $17. 5 billion IMF program now with lukewarm support from the Trump administration and subject to “backward risk” in the words of the Fund’s number two official. GDP growth is now positive but a long way from overtaking the near 20 percent output collapses from 2014-15, and energy, pension and anti-corruption reforms have stalled after early momentum. The courts have interfered with actions taken by the new integrity bureau, whose head has been publically threatened by the media and lawmakers under investigation. The President himself, with his popularity at a single-digit low, has fended off attempts by the panel to pursue allegations against his intact business empire. Heading into winter natural gas tariff raises are overdue for state company cost recovery, which will sustain 15 percent range inflation. A full accounting of the hole in the public pension system has yet to be made, and bank cleanup is still proceeding after the takeover of Privatbank, where auditors Price Waterhouse were found to miss a $6 billion balance sheet gap.

In Russia, the only MSCI core stock market in the red through August, the central bank uncovered a bigger defect at “systemically import” Okritie Bank, the leading private lender. The new local rating agency set up by the government before had downgraded it, spurring a deposit run. Supervisors accused it of “sugarcoating” the books by inflating the value of Eurobonds acquired as Western sanctions for the Crimea invasion restricted external investment. The bank’s head was a well-known trader and bought a portfolio of smaller institutions with cheap post-2008 crisis state funding. With nationalization through a 75 percent stake management was dismissed and another shaky private competitor, B&N Bank was also taken over soon after. With the moves Sberbank, with over $400 billion in assets and a 25 percent earnings jump the last quarter, solidified its dominance as analysts predict the official share of the sector could reach 80 percent. Their support could be essential abroad as well as Rosneft maneuvers to provide Venezuela a credit lifeline in exchange for additional oil field access and ownership. It already retains the right to seize 49 percent of US outlet Citgo in the event of Caracas’ joint venture lapses, while Treasury Department limits may hinder eventual overall workouts with a future debt investment ban. Meanwhile, VTB the second leading government provider, is under fire in Washington for its reported links with the Trump campaign including a post-election meeting with his son-in-law whose New York properties were in need of refinancing under backward cash flow.

Global Refugees’ Brimming Business Case
2017 September 25 by admin

Posted in: General Emerging Markets
A new Center for Global Development study commissioned by the Tent Foundation, started by the chief executive of yogurt maker Chobani to organize US company efforts to tackle the refugee crisis in the Middle East and elsewhere, found that global business concentrated on the three areas of hiring and supply chains, impact investing and goods and services provision alongside broader policy shaping efforts. Social and reputation benefit, brand loyalty, and bottom-line profitability are the main motives, although agreed standards are lacking for accountability and results. The world’s close to 25 million refugees are displaced 10 years on average and over half are in cities, and “sustainable engagement” beyond periodic product and expertise donations increasingly applies, as with furniture manufacturer IKEA’s transition from energy and housing help to artisan employment in Jordan. The report notes that work, travel, education and childcare restrictions continue to block progress, despite evidence that migrant inflows can spur occupational and wage improvements for host populations. In offering positions Starbucks is a leader with a commitment to 10,000 retail slots, although in many countries work permits are unavailable and transport costs prohibitive. In Jordan only a quarter of the 200,000 promised labor authorizations under a concessional World Bank loan and EU trade preference deal have come through. Specialized initiatives like WEConnect and Building Markets aim to link women, entrepreneurs and small business to multinational company supply networks, and a quick review of 20 low and middle-income economies with the most refugees cites consumer products, agriculture, retail and information technology as promising sectors. Development agencies facilitate and sponsor new arrangements, such as with US grocer Safeway in Jordan and the UN’s craft enterprises in West Africa. Hydrocarbons could also be an entry point, and reconstruction in Iraq and Syria could take off eventually as dedicated matchmaking hubs promote partnerships, as the guide recommends.

Impact assets that seek environment and social alongside financial returns are estimated at $115 billion, and diaspora communities, such as Somalis in Kenya, also mobilize capital for frontline state high-risk allocation. They can take stakes in startup operations like the 10000 Syrian-owned ones in Turkey which average ten employees and contribute $330 million to the economy, according to a recent census. However global investment houses tend to shy away with the small scale and difficult to measure metrics, although project specific humanitarian or development bonds, with a donor or government paying upon achieved outcomes, may be a refugee channel. They are under preparation in the Middle East, and group loans to Syrian borrowers are offered through on-line site Kiva. As “base of the pyramid” consumers, the financial and telecoms sectors are ripe for innovation, and Mastercard has created digital vouchers and prepaid debit cards in cooperation with relief agencies, and European phone company Orange has built international dialing and banking infrastructure in Uganda. The paper concludes that these early models for refugee business may be inspiring but still lack a “rigorous evidence base. ” It advises establishment of ethical standards, evaluation tools, country dialogues and research centers to solidify commercial awareness and lay the foundation for routine participation that lasts apart from the Tent label.

The BIS’ Deliberate Debt Composition Unraveling
2017 September 25 by admin

Posted in: Global Banking
The Bank for International Settlements, in its latest quarterly survey of cross-border banking and bond flows, unveiled a deeper statistical set covering euro and yen-denominated activity and a recent profile of emerging market government patterns in two dozen countries. The amount doubled the past decade to almost $12 trillion, with China and India accounting for three-quarters. Composition “changed significantly” with 80 percent through local and international bonds compared with 60 percent fifteen years ago, and concentrated in the former at fixed rates and longer maturities. The foreign currency share halved over the period to 15 percent, and the dollar’s portion was 75 percent. International issues comprised one-third of outstanding official securities in Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Indonesia and Poland, and Mexico is the top issuer overall with almost $70 billion placed over several decades. With few exceptions like Argentina, where over half of Treasuries are dollar-quoted, this structure has progressively faded as Turkey for example redeemed the remaining stock five years ago. Maturity has “risen sharply” and is just below the advanced economy 8-year average, with South Africa’s the longest at 16 years, outpacing the US, Australia, Germany and Canada. The fixed-return slice in turn jumped to 75 percent from 60 percent in 2000, in contrast with the industrial world’s 90-95 percent standard. Malaysia, Taiwan and Thailand issue only this type, and Chile’s fraction of the total quadrupled to 40 percent since 2005. Inflation indexing has also taken off in Latin America in particular, and is one-third of Brazil’s local debt. The BIS concludes that currency mismatch and rollover risks are reduced to aid sustainability, with the caveat that longer duration could now further erode market value with future global interest rate rises.

The quarterly roundup tracked less than 5% increases in cross-border bank claims and debt placement worldwide, with dollar credit to developing country borrowers at $3. 5 trillion at end-March. Middle East and Africa oil exporters got another $60 billion and Asia and Latin America $40 and $20 billion respectively, while Europe allocation fell $25 billion. Credit above GDP growth trends signal alarm in China and Hong Kong, although debt service ratios remain manageable, according to the report. Industry association EMTA’s Q2 trading volume tally came out at the same time, with a 15 percent annual and quarterly decrease to $1. 1 trillion attributed to greater passive ETF inflows. Local instruments were over 55%, with Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, China and India the favorites. Eurobond action was close to $500 billion, again with Brazil at the top followed by Argentina. CDS turnover not yet in the ETF frame was also down 9% to $260 billion. With domestic bond market opening Chinese assets now account for almost one-tenth of activity, helping to offset uncertainty in other asset classes like private equity which has noticeably slackened since 2015, according to a September Preqin study. Only forty funds worth under $10 billion have closed year to date, with deal value at $35 billion. It casts a shadow on the region as the biggest market, but two-thirds of fund managers polled expect to deploy more capital over the coming year, despite exit and valuation concerns that can decompose the landscape.





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Pakistan’s Graduation Gravity Spell
2017 September 18 by admin

Posted in: Asia
Pakistan shares continued at the bottom of the Asian pack, with an over 10% loss through August, as a typical pattern of post-upgrade retrenchment after rejoining the core MSCI Index combined with extended bouts of political and geopolitical and balance of payments instability resurrecting IMF qualms after the first-ever program completion in 2016. Recent graduates from the frontier to main gauges Qatar and the UAE telegraphed the correction path after large run-ups in advance as they suffered their own diplomatic and fiscal setbacks, but Pakistan’s were more pronounced in view of its lower per capita income developing country status. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, a nominal economic reformer, was forced to resign ahead of 2018 elections after a military-influenced court investigation to face corruption charges, although his party, now led by his brother, continues with a parliamentary majority.

The opposition PTI, headed by former cricket champion Imran Khan, has criticized the Sharif family’s dubious wealth accumulation but not yet offered a convincing program to sway the establishment business and financial communities, which increasingly look to Asian alongside traditional Western partnerships again eroded by US President Trump’s rhetorical hard line in his new Afghanistan strategy. With these elements unfolding, the currency dropped to a record 105 low against the dollar, as the central bank and finance ministry accused each other of mismanagement, underscoring lingering policy and performance doubts highlighted by the IMF’s July Article IV report. The new Prime Minister, Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, denied formal devaluation but will reduce “unnecessary” imports to cushion international reserves, down one-quarter to $14 billion from last October’s peak.

The Fund’s retrospective of the 2013-16 arrangement praised macroeconomic and reform steps, but pointed out fresh risks alongside “long-standing” fiscal and current account deficit, public domestic and external debt, financial and power sector, and poverty and unemployment challenges. GDP growth this fiscal year will be above 5% due largely to China’s Economic Corridor infrastructure building, while remittances from the Persian Gulf in particular are “sluggish. ” With higher food costs from lagging agriculture headline inflation is also heading toward 5%, and the central bank may have to shift its monetary stance from accommodation to tightening, especially with additional exchange rate pressure. The fiscal position remains precarious, with the gap running below target at 4% of GDP on flagging tax collection amid widespread evasion, which was a chief priority under the Fund facility. The trade deficit was a record $40 billion for the year ending in June, with reserves just over three months imports as the central bank’s foreign exchange derivative obligations nearly doubled to $3. 5 billion. Bank private credit is up almost 15% annually but gross bad loans are 10% of the total, as small banks are undercapitalized and deposit insurance is just about to launch.

State power company arrears built up again to the equivalent of 1% of GDP in the first half of the fiscal year, as the stock exchange privatization of distributors, designed to improve governance and payment, remains delayed. With the chronic energy crunch natural gas supplies also languish with 10% losses, above international standards according to experts. Pakistan was among the top 10 gainers in the World Bank’s Doing Business ranking, as it rose four spots to 144 out of 190 countries with records automation and a new secured transactions law. However, the IMF’s July evaluation urged overdue labor market, one-stop investment shop, property registration, and commercial arbitration changes. It also noted a continued poor score at 116 on the companion Transparency International list, with corruption, money laundering and hidden assets found to be common practices. Financial inclusion also lagged toward low income female and rural populations in particular, as a strategy to widen conventional and Islamic banking access through end-decade is at an early stage.

External debt was almost $60 billion at end-March, with $40 billion in bilateral and multilateral loans as sovereign borrowing is increasingly on commercial terms through Eurobonds and China’s One Belt One Road initiative. Finance Minister Ishaq Dar ruled out IMF return urged by chambers of commerce as another $500 million-$1billion global bond is under preparation for the coming months, However credit default swap spreads have recently risen 100 basis points, signaling a likely ratings downgrade and yield premium that could indefinitely scuttle both Fund program and MSCI index graduation ambitions.



















Central America’s Clinging Clown Acts
2017 September 18 by admin

Posted in: Latin America/Caribbean
Central American bonds sold off as Guatemala’s president Morales, formerly a well-known comedian, ousted the UN’s anti-corruption monitor as it investigated his family and political party, and El Salvador grappled with a pension reform standoff accumulated over two decades with total liabilities now at $25 billion or 90 percent of GDP. Costa Rica also tripped up on new external debt authorization and fiscal outlays for court spending which may not get parliamentary backing ahead of February 2018 elections, as Panama’s President Varela, with record low 35 percent approval ratings, was embroiled in the Brazil construction company Odebrecht bribery scandal, with alleged payments to his campaign and for a metro project bid. Guatemala’s business community is at odds with popular support of the UN integrity body, which dates back decades to the “dirty war” period of army control, and street rallies have condemned the President’s “clown circus” in expelling the mission to possibly salvage his own immunity. Economic growth is around 3 percent, as criminal gangs and violence have spurred emigration once targeting the US, but with increased border enforcement often staying instead in Mexico. El Salvador’s government, with both the FMLN and ARENA parties holding a similar number of assembly seats, initially missed obligations in the mixed public-private system in April, as they argued about overdue contribution charge and retirement age changes. Ratings agency downgrades of at least one notch followed, with S&P assigning “selective default” until the amount was cleared in July on budget appropriation.
The next big chunk due is in October and in the wake of court rulings urging compromise the ruling FMLN declared it would consider opposition proposals, which could include caps on monthly draws and private manager fees alongside higher taxes. Performance has lagged the EMBI sub-index as spreads jumped 50 basis points in recent months, with the pension clash and IMF program likelihood scuttled indefinitely especially in light of previous results.

Private pension pioneer Chile has also been debating overhaul to ensure basic floors but debate remains stuck with President Bachelet’s unpopularity and the race on to succeed her in early 2018, with previous incumbent and conservative party stalwart Pinera in the lead. Shares are ahead at roughly the MSCI index 25 percent average on copper price recovery, although this year’s growth is forecast at 1-1. 5 percent on 2 percent inflation, which may allow a 25 basis point rate reduction at the next central bank meeting. However Finance Minister Valdes and other officials resigned with confidence ebbing toward the end of Bachelet’s second term amid a cabinet fight over a mining venture’s environmental fallout. Colombia in contrast has share gains only half that range, with growth around the same level and an interest rate cut already on higher than target 4. 5 percent inflation. The gross debt burden is near 50 percent of GDP, 10 percent above the “BBB” median, and the latest fiscal package with a 3 percent deficit may not stave off a downgrade in advance of next March polls. The outlook is negative and the current account hole remains structural with oil exports off a bottom but still lackluster. Ex-guerilla FARC members entered congress after signing a peace pact and receiving demobilization funds, and the ELN may follow suit as lengthy civil war costs shift to their aftermath.

Power Africa’s Short-Circuited Anniversary Annals
2017 September 11 by admin

Posted in: Africa
Power Africa released its first annual report under the Trump administration on its fourth anniversary, as the new head of AID, which coordinates the program, hailed a “hand up” in mobilizing over $50 billion in combined public-private sector commitments to expanding connections as envisioned under the 2015 Electrify Africa Act. A recent breakthrough was a $25 million regional pension fund investment in a generation company, and the team has worked with 100 US partner firms to promote women’s commercial and official participation. To date 80 transactions worth $15 billion have been facilitated producing over 7000 megawatts and reaching over 50 million users. Nigeria has accounted for almost half the extra hookups, followed by South Africa where AID’s office is located and Tanzania, where former President Obama made a high-profile visit to launch a solar project soon after the initiative was announced. Natural gas and hydro technology accounted for over 5000 MW, and two-thirds of connections are through solar lanterns, with 10 million people accessing larger grids and systems. A major thrust is technical assistance for the enabling environment, with a focus on legal and regulatory changes, cost-effective tariffs, and more creditworthy deal structures. The 25 projects at or near completion with US operations should support $500 million in exports. The Trade and Development Agency and Ex-Im Bank backed feasibility studies and loans, and AID leveraged $200 million through its credit authority, while OPIC has been in the lead with $2. 5 billion in funding and insurance for ten power plants. Among the 15 bilateral and multilateral counterparts the French government was recently added, and cooperation with the African Development Bank has concentrated on a joint legal facility for project finance and purchase agreements. By end-decade Power Africa’s capacity and coverage should more than double according to projections, provided President Trump preserves such trade and investment engagement with the continent. At the annual private sector AGOA forum in Togo in August US officials including Commerce Secretary Ross could not articulate specific elements of future arrangements even as duty-free Sub-Saharan import status was renewed under the previous Congress.

Private equity is targeted for power ventures as the industry group EMPEA charted double digit first half fundraising and investment jumps, with the $22 billion allocated for the period the highest on record. KKR, which launched a dedicated African vehicle in the wake of Power Africa, closed the biggest fund to date at almost $9. 5 billion for Asia, and energy-specific ones are in vogue as evidenced by Actis’ $2. 7 billion global tap. Off-grid and micro-generation assets are increasingly attractive to managers with dozens of deals annually the last five years. Emerging market cash inflow into mid-year was half Western Europe’s $45 billion total and 10 percent of the worldwide sum, but PE penetration as a portion of GDP continues to badly lag developed world members. Sub-Sahara Africa’s is only 0. 1 percent, with half from Nigeria, and South Africa’s is at the same level. India and Korea top the list at 0. 2 percent, and the ratio in Brazil, China, Poland and advanced economy Japan is around the region’s, as the Middle East, Russia and Turkey are further behind on this power curve version.

Argentina’s Convoluted Christening Ceremony
2017 September 11 by admin

Posted in: Latin America/Caribbean
Argentine stocks, after sloughing off disappointment at MSCI’s unmentioned first-tier return with the frontier index up 35% through July, was again on edge into mid-August primary elections, with former President Christina Fernandez charting a Senate comeback to rally the opposition Peronist party. She retains popularity especially among working class pockets in the capital as the current political base, given the large social spending during her tenure subsequently slowed under the Macri government’s austerity policies. However corruption and money laundering investigations have put her on the defensive, and she roughly tied with the ruling Change coalition candidate in the preliminary race ahead of the October mid-term polls. Foreign investors took her revived visibility in stride as the central bank intervened to support the peso after relative stability following its free float. Recent inflation figures still at 1. 5 percent monthly and delays in agricultural export proceeds have pressured the currency, but the monetary authority has tried to maintain high real interest rates through a 25 percent benchmark and Lebac secondary market transactions. The exchange rate has slipped over 10 percent in nominal terms the past few months to 17/dollar with the current account deficit wider at 3 percent of GDP on goods and services imbalances, the latter from increased tourism abroad. Fiscal policy is mostly on target with the primary gap around 4. 5 percent of GDP despite election-related outlays and consolidation backlash as unions organize against consumer subsidy and provincial transfer cuts. Should President Macri’s grouping hold its own in the October contest the process will accelerate as sovereign bond holders have begun to insist on further discipline with growth pickup to sustain high-yield participation.

Brazil is also grappling with overdue reforms as President Temer survived an initial impeachment attempt and his cabinet vowed to press on with labor and social security changes. The employment code overhaul will update World War II era practices and ease administrative burdens for small business in particular, while pension adjustment remains uncertain with plans to extend retirement age and conceivably shift to private fund reliance as the current generous scheme is an outsize budget drag. The pro-business PSDB, which backed Temer’s ouster, is a proponent while his PMDB, the largest party in Congress is divided a year from the next scheduled national elections. The government must tread carefully after bad publicity over price and service switches at passport offices and other essential arms to save money. The overall deficit is stuck at 10 percent of GDP and the once sacrosanct primary surplus will not reappear over the near-term. Loosening has moved to the monetary side as the central bank continues to reduce the benchmark Selic, with inflation at a 20-year low of 3 percent on incipient economic recovery. However recession is still deep in Rio de Janeiro state a year after the Summer Olympics there prompting a media blitz of critical retrospectives. A former governor is in jail and major politicians in charge of the event contacts face criminal prosecution, as law and order has worsened since the closing ceremonies. Federal authorities have dispatched 10000 troops to patrol the streets and beaches as the sporting facilities originally designed for productive municipal use lay idle in another form of retirement abuse.

South Africa’s Unconcealed Radical Regret
2017 September 5 by admin

Posted in: Africa
South African shares, after a decent 15 percent jump through July still lagging the core universe 25 percent, scrambled to react to the mixed parliamentary confidence vote message to President Zuma, who won with a slim majority despite dozens of ANC ruling party members defecting in a secret ballot. The opposition Democratic Alliance has seized on unending scandals while attempting to forge a moderate alternative to the “radical economic transformation” newly embraced by the President to rally support and engineer the possible succession of his ex-wife in 2019 elections. Recession was recorded in the first quarter with unemployment near 30 percent, and the populist platform would increase government control across agricultural, industry and financial sectors to shift the post-independence course despite local and foreign investor resistance. Land expropriation would veer toward the Zimbabwe model of minimal or no compensation for transfer to black ownership, and mining firms would have to sell or hand over 30 percent of shares over time, up from the 26 percent in the existing charter, in addition to paying a 1 percent revenue levy. The industry, whose size at 7% of GDP has shrunk with hundreds of thousands of job losses the past decade, promises to fight the changes in court as “confused and contradictory” as listed companies were dumped on the Johannesburg exchange. Deputy ANC President Ramaphosa, a Zuma rival, has sided with the business community in urging reconsideration, as a recent African ranking of mining climates put the country behind neighbors Botswana and Namibia. The central bank with its long record of steady monetary policy management is also in the crosshairs of the activist campaign as it faces calls for rand intervention and social welfare rather than price stability focus. Commercial banks in turn are under pressure to forgive or slash high-interest consumer debt accumulated in recent years to depress sentiment. With the inflation forecast cut to 5. 5 percent, the benchmark repo rate was lowered 25 basis points to 6. 75 percent in July. However the Reserve Bank cautioned the relief could be temporary ahead of risk events, including another ANC conference in December and potential sovereign ratings downgrade with the agency review cycle.

Finance Minister Gigaba, a controversial pick, previewed second quarter growth in the 2 percent range while unveiling an “inclusive” stimulus plan drawing on state enterprise balance sheets to boost the economy over the medium term and forestall relegation to “junk” rating status. Fiscal consolidation is still a goal but assigned reduced priority, as a turnaround in the terms of trade and regular drought could offer respite, despite sluggish services readings and uneven rand performance against the weaker dollar this year. Agriculture was a sore spot in Kenya as well going into presidential polls with its MSCI frontier gauge up over 20 percent on expectations of voting calm and a likely second business-friendly Kenyatta term. GDP growth has sputtered below 5 percent, but billions of dollars in infrastructure projects like a China-sponsored railway should raise output while the central bank tries to cap inflation at single digits. In a June pilot government bonds were sold to retail investors by mobile phone in part to finance these ventures, and were snapped up with a 10 percent yield despite technical glitches undermining confidence.





Russia’s Singeing Sanctions Stretch
2017 September 5 by admin

Posted in: Europe
Russian stocks continued outlier double-digit losses despite a pickup in Q2 GDP growth to the 4 percent range as US President Trump reluctantly signed new punitive measures against individuals, state banks and energy companies passed overwhelmingly in Congress, which also consider extending post-Crimea and Ukraine invasion punishment to sovereign debt investment. The Treasury Department will study the issue and report back early next year, but the timetable could be accelerated on evidence of Moscow’s further military forays and 2016 presidential election tampering. President Putin decried the action after holding cordial meetings with the Trump team at the recent G-20 summit, and retaliated with expulsion of half the American Embassy staff in the capital. The fighting could literally escalate as Washington reportedly may begin funneling arms to Kiev to repel Eastern rebels who have declared a breakaway Donbas Republic. The push could coincide with more erratic performance under the IMF program, as defense spending has undermined original fiscal discipline commitments despite recession escape and currency stability helping to fuel a 15 percent MSCI frontier index gain through July. Russian industrial output was up 5 percent in June, but retail sales are still flat with lackluster consumer sentiment, prompting retail giant Sberbank to slash mortgage rates to lift confidence. FDI had recovered last year to $13 billion and US banks and companies were again exploring ventures, but momentum may be derailed with the fresh sanctions provisions targeting cyber-security, infrastructure project and “corrupt” privatization broadly. The last category has made headlines with the $3 billion asset stripping lawsuit filed by oil behemoth Rosneft, after taking over rival Bashneft formerly owned by industry conglomerate Systema, after its chief executive fell out of Kremlin favor and was placed under house arrest. The clash underscored perennial corporate governance dysfunction structurally discounting the market P/E ratio to single digits and Rosneft’s high economic profile as it also negotiates additional concessions for Venezuela oil fields after accumulating a 49 percent position in US chain Citgo for collateral in its main joint venture.

As the country skirts possible bond default under pariah status with President Maduro’s installation of a replacement assembly, Russian lenders may be ready to offer backstops, but the sector has been blighted with hundreds of closures ordered by the central bank since 2013. The latest is 30th ranking Yugra, which “manipulated” and falsified accounts to fool depositors and regulators. The bottleneck has occurred against the backdrop of notable strides otherwise in the World Bank’s Doing Business indicators, where Russia and neighbors have led all regions since 2010 according to a companion report. At the same time as the reinforced Washington estrangement, relations with Turkey have turned cozier after a brief trade boycott for plane destruction in Syria ended. The stock market there in contrast is up 35 percent this year on tax, spending and credit stimulus supporting 5 percent growth on the anniversary of 2016’s doomed coup. President Erdogan recently met again with his Russian counterpart, who unlike officials in Brussels has refrained from criticizing mass detentions and firings of government and media workers accused of anti-regime sympathy. He has also seized company stakes and pooled them into a $200 billion sovereign wealth fund for infrastructure outlays, while exhorting private banks to relax their grip from pre-coup torn balance sheets.

Fund Flows’ Record Reset Rumblings
2017 August 29 by admin

Posted in: Fund Flows
EPFR-tracked fund bond and equity inflows were at record-setting pace through August, at $70 billion and $50 billion respectively, with numbers due to match 2012, before the Fed Reserve’s taper tantrum blow. Including so-called strategic allocation through separately managed accounts, the former category should exceed the $105 billion total five years ago, as non-dedicated investors have jumped in to join retail appetite reflected in unprecedented ETF preference. Local currency still lags hard currency interest, continuing recent annual trends, but could catch up by end-year as dollar correction persists after its initial lift on Trump reflation and protectionist policy agendas. By the same token external corporate and sovereign exposure is increasingly converging as gross issuance reaches estimated $400 billion and $150 billion sums in 2017, at spreads over US Treasuries in the 250-300 basis point range. Fixed-income index returns average high single-digits, but lag stocks with the benchmark MSCI soaring 25 percent with the P/E ratio at 14 times. In the detailed EPFR breakdown one-quarter of participation is through ETFs and global as opposed to regional or country funds dominate. North American and European investors eagerly subscribe the offerings, while Japanese ones shy away. The data show a heavy tilt toward consumer goods and technology in contrast with financial and commodity listings, and dividend as well as capital gain strategies. Company profits will increase over 10 percent on a forward basis due to better management and margins and the growth uptick to 5 percent in Q2 on China stabilization and positive trade volume after restriction threats. Brazil, Russia and South Africa are back from recession, and inflation is subdued across the universe with food and fuel costs relatively constant as exchange rates strengthen. Against this background, few central banks will raise interest rates with the vast majority staying on hold or easing marginally.

However the BRICS and other core markets have not shaken off political risks that combine to act as a potential future drag. Brazil has avoided a second impeachment for now with a vote not to remove President Temer despite bribery accusations, as his predecessor Lula was found guilty of these charges and sentenced to a long prison stretch he will appeal. Finance Minister Mereilles promised to press on with social security reform after the decision, but the constituency for fiscal discipline is thin and wavering heading into another election cycle. Russia was subject to additional US energy and individual sanctions, after Congress almost unanimously passed legislation over President Trump’s objections that it interfered with executive foreign policy determination. Moscow retaliated by ejecting half of Embassy employees, as Russian shares continue to be an exception with a 15 percent decline through July. Poland has led the regional pack with a 40 percent jump, but the EU is considering penalties under Article 7 for anti-democratic action as the government assumes sweeping power over the nominally independent judiciary. The Brussels backlash follows similar signals against Hungary, another stock market high-flyer, for the Orban administration’s anti-migrant steps, including alleged abuses in detention and residential facilities. The “nuclear option” in both cases would be cohesion fund cutoff, equivalent to 20 percent of GDP, at the same time the world is facing the actual prospect in North Korea with the specter of literal Asian fallout.

Central Africa Should Rejigger Rescue Formula (Financial Times)
2017 August 29 by admin

Posted in: Africa
As an August IMF blog recounts, four of the six countries in the Francophone Central Africa Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC)—Cameroon, Gabon, Chad and the Central Africa Republic—are now in oil price collapse and debt crisis programs with negotiations also begun with the Republic of Congo and Equatorial Guinea. They share a common central bank and the CFA Franc currency tied to the euro and managed through the French Treasury, which requires backing with half of foreign reserves. The Fund notes that despite a summit in Yaoundé last year that pledged commodity diversification and fiscal, financial sector and business climate changes, policy maker delay and the spreading Boko Haram conflict left the region in “dire shape” to be addressed chiefly through traditional austerity and transparency nostrums. French President Macron, at the recent G-20 summit, for his part recommended a new strategy that could involve shedding the 50-year old currency peg, but his message lacked specifics and was garbled by reference to “civilizational” differences like deep-rooted corruption and large families that can frustrate growth and modernization plans. Instead of relying on historic outside bilateral and multilateral relationships to overcome its repeated predicament, Central Africa should focus on its own stalled efforts, such as in banking integration and stock exchange launch, to achieve development breakthroughs and narrow the income and sophistication gap with the neighboring West Africa UEMOA zone led by Cote d’ Ivoire and Senegal, which has started to link with the English-speaking ECOWAS group.

Oil is 60 percent of CEMAC’s exports and earnings halved from 2014-16 as the current account deficit neared 10 percent of output. Public debt rose 20 percent, approaching 50 percent of GDP, and international reserves dipped $10 billion to cover only two months’ imports, below the danger threshold exacerbated by the fixed exchange rate. The Fund arrangements feature standard formulas to correct imbalances and also limit further commercial borrowing from Cameroon and Gabon, which have issued Eurobonds and are components in JP Morgan’s NEXGEM index. Cameroon is to prioritize infrastructure projects from domestic and donor resources, and boost non-oil revenue through land taxes and ending exemptions. High bad loan levels and insolvent banks will be resolved and private sector “administrative obstacles” slashed, with 3. 5 percent of GDP safeguarded for education and health spending. Gabon will improve public finance management and show progress across the World Bank’s “Doing Business” indicators, especially on company startup, construction permits, property registration and contract enforcement. After getting the first installment of its $650 million facility, GDP growth stabilized in mid-year at 1 percent with oil price recovery and mining, timber and construction contributions, with exports up almost 40 percent on an annual basis. Both Cameroon and Gabon are led by longstanding rulers, and their governments must follow extractive industry transparency initiative (EITI) reporting and also clear and disclose outstanding contract arrears. Chad, which must restructure external commercial debt, and the Central Africa Republic, gripped by civil war, face similar program criteria with larger relative allowances for anti-poverty outlays.

As of April the central bank BEAC’s gross reserves were $4. 5 billion, as it worked to maintain the integrity of the decades old CFA Franc structure, deal with the 15 percent commercial bank non-performing loan ratio, and tighten monetary policy through a 50 basis point interest rate hike and reduced access to overdraft facilities. Excess liquidity has evaporated from the system, which now requires emergency lines and recapitalization, according to a June IMF regional policy report. Stricter statutory ceilings on government borrowing will apply, and banks in turn will face collateral limitations for refinancing under the latest Fund pacts. Interbank foreign exchange and capital markets will also deepen, and supervision is due to strengthen next year with enforcement of prudential rules including connected lending, risk concentration, asset provisioning and board conduct alongside basic capital sufficiency. Several smaller banks have been closed and seized, most recently in Gabon, and with the deposit insurance regime to be finalized in 2018 other “orderly” insolvencies are likely following the terms agreed between the BEAC regulators.

These promises have fallen short in past efforts, and even if honored member countries could plot their own future direction apart from conventional recipes. They could explore a phased devaluation or peg to a wider currency basket, to include the dollar and major emerging market units given trade and investment links. “Single passport” cross-border banking approaches should be revisited in full operational and regulatory senses and the dormant Central African securities market, with a few government and state company bond listings, can be cast as an active private sector debt and equity platform, or merged with the bigger nearby West African bourse so this frontier region charts a proprietary path that is no longer desperate.



Iraq’s Unreconstructed Conflict Model
2017 August 23 by admin

Posted in: MENA
Iraq’s first $1 billion stand-alone bond was oversubscribed at an almost 7% yield as security forces were poised to retake Mosul from ISIS control and the IMF released another $800 million under its $5 billion multi-year program. In February it issued for the same amount with a US government guarantee at 2%, and a decade ago a $2. 7 billion restructuring operation was completed for the post-Saddam era. During July global oil prices also rose $10/barrel, but local investors stayed bearish on equities despite the average P/E ratio at 8 times as the Rabee Securities index slipped 10% in June. State banks are main listings and offer high dividends, with only one-fifth the population having accounts, and fees rather than lending driving income with assets concentrated in Treasury bills amid flush liquidity. The IMF’s review noted fragility and missed targets, with millions displaced by military campaigns and billions of dollars in infrastructure destroyed. The budget deficit was 15 percent of GDP last year, but it is to be eliminated through end-decade to stabilize public debt as the current account also returns to surplus over the period with passage of the defense and humanitarian emergencies. One third of the country, including 250,000 Syrian refugees current receive aid, but internal and external repatriation is unlikely to increase in the near-term even with liberation of Mosul and other cities pending credible rebuilding plans. Elections are due next year and the Finance Minister was replaced after losing parliament’s confidence with the Prime Minister assuming the post. Official debt doubled to near 70% of GDP since 2013, and bond yields spiked to 15 percent before the latest standby agreement was reached. The current account hole was over 8. 5 percent of GDP in 2016 and covered chiefly by donor flows, as international reserves dipped to $45 billion or six months imports. The currency appreciated in line with the dollar peg, and credit to the economy was flat with banks’ undercapitalization and double-digit NPLs. Non-oil growth should pick up after ISIS’ defeat, while inflation remains low at 2 percent.

Fund conditions will preserve the dollar-linked exchange rate, as devaluation would aggravate inflation and fail to help exports, but simplify foreign currency allocation and trading procedures to shrink the official-parallel level disparity. The central bank law will be strengthened with prudential rules to reflect prevailing international standards with outside technical assistance. Along with long-delayed bank restructuring the private business climate is in need of overhaul especially on electricity access and anti-corruption. Program risks are high, the report concludes, with a $7 billion financing gap identified for 2018-19 even under positive direction. Gulf, Asian and Western donors have been approached for additional pledges but regional supporters like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are under pressure to get their own houses in order, as reflected in flat stock market performance while the main core and frontier indices are ahead 15-25 percent. Jordan and Lebanon are also down for the year, with large refugee populations, political infighting and security threats, as “frailty” remains the watchword in the IMF’s view almost fifteen years after the international community’s first Iraq attack rumblings.

Asia Local Bonds’ Unheeded Unstable Equilibrium
2017 August 23 by admin

Posted in: Asia
The latest edition of the Asian Development Banks’s local currency bond publication, covering nine emerging markets for the full first quarter through May, cited greater stability with reduced spreads and foreign capital inflows as it cautioned about immediate global liquidity and cyber-attack risks. It noted an issuance slowdown from China in particular on its deleveraging campaign, with the mainland accounting for 70% of the $10. 5 trillion government and corporate instruments outstanding. Indonesia in contrast experienced an overseas ownership leap to almost 40% of the total with a Standard & Poor’s ratings upgrade. On the two decade anniversary of the crisis which launched the Asia Bond Market Initiative with the Bank’s online monitoring and regular technical assistance, the reference also looked at the 2008 and 2013 Taper Tantrum spasms to examine the empirical record of domestic bond market deepening. The evidence pointed to less exposure to currency and maturity mismatch, but did not rule out future troubles on economic, monetary and business cycle turns which could also deflate this traditional “spare tire” supplementing bank loans and stock markets.

The ADB noted that gradual monetary policy normalization in the US, EU and Japan could “impinge” on East Asia’s financial markets. The Federal Reserve has ended quantitative easing and nudged interest rates marginally, and may begin to unwind the $4 trillion portfolio of Treasury, mortgage-backed and agency securities bought for commercial fixed income support the past decade. This rolling off is designed as a multi-year process implying that short-term Asian spillover should be “manageable,” but leverage has accumulated over a prolonged loose money period that could pose danger especially if the Eurozone also pares bond purchases. Global GDP growth forecasts have picked up, with developing Asia to expand 5. 7% this year and next, but long-term yields have started to rise and investors have only recently “rediscovered” emerging market assets with fleeting confidence. Moody’s downgraded China’s sovereign rating from Aa3 to A1 at the same time, and continued US rate lifts will “adversely affect” heavy borrower company balance sheets in particular. Yields could spike and trading volumes sink as in 2013, and the consecutive Bangladesh central bank and Wanna Cry cyber- crimes in 2016 and 2017 revealed additional systemic weaknesses across banks and capital market intermediaries compromising safe-asset transactions, according to the review.

First quarter bond market growth was only 1% from 2. 5% in the previous one, with China’s local government and corporate placement the main drags. By comparison, Korea’s number two near $2 trillion market was up 1. 5% on Treasury bond front-loading for budget stimulus. Thailand and Malaysia each rose 3%, with the latter’s Islamic-style sukuk over half the total. Hong Kong and Singapore were roughly tied at the $250 billion activity range, while Indonesia’s surged 4. 5% in the period to close to $175 billion. The Philippines and Vietnam had respective $100 billion and $45 billion totals as the smallest in the region. The annual growth rate was 13% for the quarter, with the government-corporate split at 65%-35% and local currency bonds approaching 70% of GDP.

Foreign ownership strengthened everywhere outside Malaysia, where the share dropped 6 points to 25%, through March, although the trend there also stabilized in April with resumed capital inflows. Investors remain wary after the central bank’s surprise ban on non-deliverable ringgit forwards to hedge positions, and the continuing drip from the 1MDB fund scandal with a repayment to Abu Dhabi creditors past the due date. Thailand’s international participation hit 15% on opposite news as a healthy current account surplus and reserves buoyed sentiment despite lingering political stalemate, as ousted Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra prepared to face trial for alleged rice subsidy abuse. Cross-border issuance within East Asia was a paltry $2. 3 billion for the quarter, led by China, followed by Korea, Malaysia and Singapore, and a fraction of the $105 billion G-3 currency amount from January-April on good worldwide appetite. Inflation and interest rates were largely steady through May, as countries tweaked laws and regulations to solidify the bond market ballast shown by the ADB’s statistical regressions to offset exchange rate depreciation pressure. China and Thailand announced new rules for low-grade and unrated bonds, and Malaysia and Vietnam authorized short-selling, but after 15 years local bond development is in search of a long-haul catalyst that can apply with the same sense of crisis urgency to overcome potentially imminent global bond bruising.





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China’s Party Pep Talk Preening
2017 August 16 by admin

Posted in: Asia
Chinese shares were up over 30 percent on the MSCI index through July, as solid economic data and financial work conference rhetoric overcame US trade retaliation threats following lack of agreement to cut steel exports in particular during the bilateral strategic dialogue in Washington. Second quarter GDP growth was 6. 9 percent, with majority contributions from consumption and services, as infrastructure investment rose 20 percent and fixed-asset outlays at half that pace. Inflation was steady at 1. 5 percent with money supply expansion continuing to drop to 9. 5 percent on shadow banking and international conglomerate- centered deleveraging. The Yuan appreciated 3 percent against the dollar as the central bank hailed “market confidence” and Fitch Ratings pointed to a 1 percent jump in foreign ownership under the new Bond Connect. President Xi called for improved currency trading and internationalization efforts at the annual financial sector Party forum, ahead of the landmark October Congress which will formalize his second term. Reserves have returned to the $3 trillion mark, and banks have been net foreign exchange sellers the past year, as Chinese tourist spending abroad increased 2. 5 percent in 2016. The Economist’s “Big Mac Index” puts RMB undervaluation at 45 percent, but less subjective expert readings have it in the 5 percent range. Politburo statements at the July meeting focused on debt risks, including in local governments and households, with the latter soon to reach 50 percent of GDP. Ratings agencies reinforced caution, with S&P keeping a long-term negative outlook due to runaway credit despite the high savings rate. A financial stability council was formed to coordinate regulation and urgent action through the central bank, which ordered lower wealth management product returns as they approached a 2-year top toward 5 percent. It will be on the lookout for capital and insurance market “abnormal fluctuations” as well as real estate froth and the warning helped prompt a 17 percent loss on the small company tech-heavy ChiNext.

All big state enterprises will be converted to joint stock ownership by year-end but private capital participation has not yet been defined. Profits were up 15 percent among a cross-section of 100 firms in the first half, but company leverage averages over 150 percent, according to official statistics. The government has introduced curbs on further lending to aggressive overseas acquirers like HNA and Dalian Wanda to set an example as it consolidates holdings, most recently in the shipping industry, with coal and heavy machinery deals in the pipeline. Property investment jumped 8. 5 percent at mid-year and the 70-city price index again was higher in June. President Xi may leave the sector alone until his reelection, but he has tightened controls over local government borrowing with phase out of financing vehicles, with large real estate assets, in favor of more disciplined bond issuance. He may elevate anti-corruption chief Wang Quishan, who oversaw the biggest investment trust bankruptcy during the 1990’s financial crisis with foreign creditors, to premier in a sign that top-level restructuring expertise and vision may again be pressing. His latest target was a party boss in Chongqing who may now be eliminated from standing committee consideration, as gaming center Macau continues to suffer from the anti-capital flight and money laundering purge.

The IMF’s Regional Reinforcement Rehash
2017 August 16 by admin

Posted in: IFIs
Ahead of the next annual meetings the IMF’s Policy Review Department has published background papers on potential elements of an expanded global financial safety net leveraging Fund resources, a priority identified under the Managing Director’s work program and endorsed by major county shareholders.