Thus the coarsest woollens were formerly exported in great
quantities
to Russia.
Edmund Burke
This he has done in p.
15; and he repeats it in p.
18, the very page I am now examining, 2,614,892l.
To comprehend afterwards in the peace establishment the deficiency
of the fund created for payment of that interest, would be laying twice to the account of the war part of the same sum. Suppose ten millions borrowed at 4 per cent, and the fund for payment of the interest to produce no more than 200,000l. The whole an
nual charge on the public is 400,000l. It can be no more. But to charge the interest in one part of the account, and then the deficiency in the other, would be charging 600,000l. The deficiency of funds must therefore be also deducted from the peace establish ment in the "Considerations "; and then the peace establishment in that author will be reduced to the
Peace establishment in the " Considerations " Deduct deficiency of land and malt ? 300,000 Dittooffunds . . . . . . . . 202,400
Peace
establishment before the late war, in which no deficiencies of land and malt, or funds are included . . . . . . . ' . .
Difference . . .
2,346,594 ? 760,706
"ii
3,107,300
502,400
307
? same articles with those included in the sum I have already mentioned for the peace establishment before the last war, in the year 1753, and 1754.
? 3,609,700
? ? ? 308
Hi'
OBSERVATIONS ON A LATE PUBLICATION
Being about half the sum which our author has
been pleased to suppose it.
Let us put the whole together. The author states, --
Difference of peace establishment before and
since the war . . . . . . . . . . . ? 1,500,000 Interest of debt contracted by the war . . 2,614,892
The real difference in the peace estab
lishment is . . . . The actual interest of the
. . . . ? 760,706
? 2,315,642 160,000
2,475,642
funded debt, that charged sinking fxmd
including on the
4,114,892
? . . . The actual interest of un
funded debt at most . .
Total interest of debt con tracted by the war . .
Increase of peace establishment,
newdebt . . . . . ; . . . . . . 3,236,348
Error of the author . . . . ? 878,544
lt is true, the extraordinaries of the army have been found considerably greater than the author of the " Considerations" was pleased to foretell they would be. The author of "The Present State" avails himself of that increase, and, finding it suit his purpose, sets the whole down in the peace establish mcnt of the present times. If this is allowed him, his error perhaps may be reduced to 700,000l. But I doubt the author of the " Considerations " will not thank him for admitting 200,000l. and upwards, as the peace establishment for extraordinaries, when that author has so much labored to confine them within 35,000l.
and interest of
? ? ? on THE PRESENT surn or THE NATION.
309
These are some of the capital fallacies of the au thor. To break the thread of my discourse as little as possible, I have thrown into the margin many in stances, though God knows far from the whole of his inaccuracies, inconsistencies, and want of common
care. I think myself obliged to take some notice of them, in order to take ofl" from any authority this writer may have ; and to put an end to the deference which careless men are apt to pay to one who boldly arrays his accounts, and marshals his figures, in per fect confidence that their correctness will never be examined. *
? * Upon the money borrowed in 1760, the premium of one per cent was for twenty-one years, not for twenty; this annuity has been paid eight years instead of seven ; the sum paid is therefore 640,000l. instead of 560,000l. ; the remaining term is worth ten years and a quarter instead of eleven years;* its value is 820,000l. instead of 880,000l. ; and the whole value of that premium is l,460,000l. instead of l,440,000l. The like errors are observable in his computation on the additional capital of three per cent on the loan of that year. In like manner, on the loan of 1762, the author computes on five years'
payment instead of six; and says in express terms, that take 5 from 19, and there remain 13. These are not errors of the pen or the press; the several computations pursued in this part of the work with
great diligence and earnestness prove them errors upon much deliber ation. Thus the premiums in 1759 are east up 90,000l. too little, an error in the first rule of arithmetic. " The annuities borrowed in 1756 and 1758 are," says he, "to continue till redeemed by Parlia ment. " He does not take notice that the first are irredeemable till Feb ruary, 1771, the other till July, 1782. In this the amount of the pre miums is computed on the time which they have run. Weakly and
ignorantly ; for he might have added to this, and strengthened his ar gument, such as it is, by charging also the value of the additional one per cent from the day on which he wrote, to at least that day on which these annuities become redeemable. To make ample amends, however, be has added to the premiums of 15 per cent in 1759, and three per
' See Smart and Demoivre.
? ? ? 310 OBSERVATIONS on A LATE PUBLICATION
However, for argument, I am content to take his
state of it. The debt was and is enormous. The
war was expensive. The best economy had not per haps been used. But I must observe, that war and economy are things not easily reconciled; and that the attempt of leaning towards parsimony in sucha state may be the worst management, and in the end the worst economy in the world, hazarding the total
loss of all the charge incurred, and of everything along with it.
But cui bom all this detail of our debt? Has the author given a single light towards any material re duction of it? Not a glimmering. We shall see in its place what sort of thing he proposes. But before he commences his operations, in order to scare the public imagination, he raises by art magic a thick mist before our eyes, through which glare the most ghastly and horrible phantoms:
'Hunc igitur terrorem animi tenebrasque necesse est, Non radii solis, neque lucida tela diei
Discutiant, sed naturse species ratioque.
Let us therefore calmly, if we can for the fright into which he has put us, appreciate those dreadful and deformed gorgons and hydras, which inhabit the joy less regions of an imagination fruitful in nothing but the production of monsters.
His whole representation is founded on the sup
cent in 1760, the annuity paid for them since their commencement; the fallacy of which is manifest; for the premiums in these cases can be neither more nor less than the additionalcapital for which the pub lic stands engaged, and is just the same whether five or five hundred years' annuity has been paid for it. In private life, no man persuades himself that he has borrowed 200l. because he happens to have paid twenty years' interest on a loan of 100l.
\
? ? ? ? on THE PRESENT surn or rnn NATION. 3'11
posed operation of our debt, upon our manufactures, and our trade. To this cause he attributes a. certain supposed dearness of the necessaries of life, which must compel our manufacturers to emigrate to cheap er countries, particularly to France, and with them the manufacture. Thence consumption declining, and with it revenue. He will not permit the real balance of our trade to be estimated so high as 2,500,000l. ; and the interest of the debt to foreigners carries ofl" 1,500,000l. of that balance. France is not in the same condition. Then follow his wailings and lamentings, which he renews over and over, according
? to his custom-- a declining trade, and decreasing spe cie--on the point of becoming tributary to France --of losing Ireland--of having the colonies torn away from us.
The first thing upon which I shall observe is,* what he takes for granted as the clearest of all propositions, the emigration of our manufacturers to France. I undertake to say that this assertion is totally groimd less, and I challenge the author to bring any sort of proof of it. If living is cheaper in France, that is, to be had for less specie, wages are proportionably lower. No manufacturer, let the living be what it will, was ever known to fly for refuge to low wages. Money is
the first thing which attracts him. Accordingly our wages attract artificers from all parts of the world. From two shillings to one shilling, is a fall in all men's imaginations, which no calculation upon a dif ference in the price of the necessaries of life can com
pensate. But it will be hard to prove that a French artificer is better fed, clothed, lodged, and warmed, than one in England; for that is the sense, and the
* Pages 30-32.
? ? ? 312
OBSERVATIONS on A LATE PUBLICATION
only sense, of living cheaper. If, in truth and fact, our artificer fares as well in all these respects as one in the same state in France, ---how stands the matter in point of opinion and prejudice, the springs by which people in that class of life are chiefly actuated? The idea of our common people concerning French living is dreadful; altogether as dreadful as our au thor's can possibly be of the state of his own country; a way of thinking that will hardly ever prevail on them to desert to France)"
But, leaving the author's speculations, the fact is, that they have not deserted; and of course the man ufacture cannot be departed, or departing, with them. I am not indeed able to get at all the details of our manufactures ; though, I think, I have taken full as much pains for that purpose as our author. Some I have by me; and they do not hitherto, thank God, support the author's complaint, unless a vast increase of the quantity of goods manufactured be a proof of losing the manufacture. On a view of the registers in the West Riding of Yorkshire, for three years be fore the war, and for the three last, it appears, that the quantities of cloths entered were as follows:
? 1752 .
1753 .
1754 .
Pieces broad. . 60,724
. 55,358
. 56,070
172,152
. . .
. . .
Pieces narrow. 72,442 71,618 72,394
216,454
* In a course of years a few manufacturers have been tempted abroad, not by cheap living, but by immense premiums, or set up as masters, and to introduce the manufacture. This must happen in every country eminent for the skill of its artificers, and has nothing to do with taxes and the price of provisions.
? ? ? ON THE PRESENT STATE OF THE NATION.
1765
1766
1767
3 years, ending 1767 3 years, ending 1754
. . . . . .
. . . .
. .
77,419 78,888 78,819
205,181 210,454
18,077
.
III crease
In this manner this capital branch of manufacture has increased, under the increase of taxes; and this not from a declining, but from a greatly flourishing period of commerce. I may say the same on the best authority of the fabric of thin goods at Halifax; of
the bays at Rochdale ; and of that infinite variety of admirable manufactures that grow and extend every year among the spirited, inventive, and enterprising
traders of Manchester.
A trade sometimes seems to perish when it only as
sumes a different form.
Thus the coarsest woollens were formerly exported in great quantities to Russia. The Russians now supply themselves with these goods. But the export thither of finer cloths has increased in proportion as the other has declined. Possibly some parts of the kingdom may have felt something like a languor in business. Objects like trade and man ufacture, which the very attempt to confine would certainly destroy, frequently change their place ;
and thereby, far from being lost, are often highly
.
Pieces broad. 54,000 72,575
102,428
229,663 172,152
57,511
313 ' Pieces nanow.
? Thus some manufactures have decayed 1:1 the west and south, which have made new and
improved.
'
shoots when transplanted into the And here it is impossible to pass by, though
more vigorous
north.
the author has said nothing upon the vast addi tion to the mass of British trade, which has been
? ? it,
? 314
ossnavarxons on A LATE PUBLICATION
made by the improvement of Scotland. What does he think of the commerce of the city of Glasgow, and of the manufactures of Paisley and all the adjacent country? has this anything like the deadly aspect and facies Hippocratica which the false diagnostic of our state physician has given to our trade in general? Has he not heard of the iron-works of such magni tude even in their cradle which are set up on the Carron, and which at the same time have drawn nothing from Sheffield, Birmingham, or Wolver hampton?
This might perhaps be enough to show the entire falsity of the complaint concerning the decline of our manufactures. But every step we advance, this mat ter clears up more ; and the false terrors of the author are dissipated, and fade away as the light appears. " The trade and manufactures of this country (says he) going to ruin, and a diminution of our revenue from consumption must attend the loss of so many seamen and artificers. " Nothing more true than the general observation : nothing more false than its ap plication to our circumstances. Let the revenue on consumption speak for itself : --
Average of net excise, since the new du
ties, three years ending 1767 . . . ? 4,590,734
'
Average increase . . . ? 1,329,040
Here is no diminution. Here on the contrary, an immense increase. This owing, shall be told, to the new duties, which may increase the total bulk, but at the same time may make some diminution of the produce of the old. Were this the fact, would
? Ditto before the new duties, three years
ending1759 . . . . . . . . 3,261,694
? ? it
is
is, I
? ON THE PRESENT srarn or THE NATION. 315
be far from supporting the author's complaint. It might have proved that the burden lay rather too heavy; but it would never prove that the revenue
from consumpticm was impaired, which it was his busi ness to do. But what is the real fact? Let us take, as the best instance for the purpose, the produce of the old hereditary and temporary excise granted in the reign of Charles the Second, whose object is that of_ most of the new impositions, from two averages, each of eight years.
Average, first period, eight years, ending
1754. . . . . . . . . . . . ? 525,317
? Ditto, second period, eight years, ending 1767. . . . . . . . . . . .
538,542 Increase . . . ? 13,225
I have taken these averages as including in each a war and a peace period; the first before the imposi tion of the new duties, the other since those imposi tions; and such is the state of the oldest branch of the revenue from consumption. Besides the acquisi tion of so much new, this article, to speak of no other,
has rather increased under the pressure of all those additional taxes to which the author is pleased to at tribute its destruction. But as the author has made his grand effort against those moderate, judicious, and necessary levies, which support all the dignity, the credit, and the power of his country, the reader will excuse a little further detail on this subject; that we may see how little oppressive those taxes are on the
shoulders of the public, with which he labors so ear nestly to load its imagination. For this purpose we take the state of that specific article upon which the two capital burdens of the war leaned the most im
? ? ? 316 onsnnvar1ons on A LATE PUBLICATION
mediately, by the additional duties on malt, and upon beer.
Average of strong beer, brewed in eight years before the additional malt and beerduties . . . . . . . . .
Barrels.
3,895,059
Average of strong beer, eight years since theduties. . . . . . . . . . 4,060,726
Increase in the last period . 165,667
Here is the effect of two such daring taxes as 3d. by the bushel additional on malt, and 3s. by the barrel additional on beer. Two impositions laid without remission one upon the neck of the other; and laid upon an object which before had been immensely loaded. They did not in the least impair the con sumption: it has grown under them. It appears that, upon the whole, the people did not feel so much inconvenience from the new duties as to oblige them to take refuge in the private brewery. Quite the contrary happened in both these respects in the reign of King William ; and it happened from much slighter impositions? " No people can long consume a com modity for which they are not well able to pay. An enlightened reader laughs at the inconsistent chimera
* Although the public brewery has considerably increased in this latter period, the produce of the malt-tax has been something less than in the former; this cannot be attributed to the new malt-tax. Had this been the cause of the lessened consumption, the public brewery, so much more burdened, must have felt it more. The cause of this diminution of the malt-tax I take to have been principally owing W the greater dearness of corn in the second period than in the first, which, in all its consequences, affected the people in the country much more than those in the towns. But the revenue from consumption was not, on the whole, impaired; as we have seen in the foregeiflg page.
? ? ? ? on THE PRESENT surn or rnn NATION.
317
of our author, of a people universally luxurious, and at the same time oppressed with taxes and declin ing in trade. For my part, I cannot look on these duties as the author does. He sees nothing but the burden. I can perceive the burden as well as he; but I cannot avoid contemplating also the strength that
it. From thence I draw the most comfort able assurances of the future vigor, and the ample resources, of this great, misrepresented country ; and can never prevail on myself to make complaints which have no cause, in order to raise hopes which have no foundation.
When a representation is built on truth and nature, one member supports the other, and mutual lights are given and received from every part. Thus, as our manufacturers have not deserted, nor the manu facture left us, nor the consumption declined, nor the revenue sunk ; so neither has trade, which is at once the result, measure, and cause of the whole, in the
least decayed, as our author has thought proper sometimes to affirm, constantly to suppose, as if it were the most indisputable of all propositions. The reader will see below the comparative state of our trade * in three of the best years before our increase of debt and taxes, and with it the three last years since the author's date of our ruin.
supports
? ? 24,607,870 ii
4' Total Imports, value,
Exports, ditto. . . ? 11,694,912
. 12,243,604
. . 11,787,828
35,726,344 24,607,870
. . 11,118,474 _ . ? 3,706,158
1752 . 1758 . 1754 .
T0t&l
. ? 7,ss9,as9 . 8,625,029 . 8,093,472
. . . . .
Exports exceed imports Medium balance . .
? ? ? 318 OBSERVATIONS ON A LATE PUBLICATION
In the last three years the whole of our exports was between 44 and 45 millions. In the three years preceding the war, it was no more than from 35 to 36 millions. The average balance of the former pe riod was 3,706,000l. ; of the latter, something above four millions. It is true, that whilst the impressions of the author's destructive war continued, our trade was greater than it is at present. One of the neces sary consequences of the peace was, that France must gradually recover a part of those markets of which she had been originally in possession. However, af ter all these deductions, still the gross trade in the worst year of the present is better than in the best year of any former period of peace. A very great part of our taxes, if not the greatest, has been imposed since the beginning of the century. On the author's principles, this continual increase of taxes must have ruined our trade, or at least entirely checked its growth. But I have a manuscript of Davenant, which contains an abstract of our trade for the years 1703 and 1704; by which it appears that the whole export from England did not then exceed 6,552,019l. It is now considerably more than double that amount. Yet England was then a rich and flourishing nation.
The author endeavors to derogate from the balance in our favor as it stands on the entries, and reduces
? Total Imports, value,
Exports, ditto. ? l6,l64,532 14,550,507
14,024,964
44,740,003 32,665,513
1764 . .
1765 . .
1766 . .
Total
? W10,3l9,946 10,889,742 11,475,825
? 32,605,513
. . . . . .
.
. . .
Exports exceed .
12,054,490
.
Medium balance for three last years ? 4,018,168
.
. .
of the fund created for payment of that interest, would be laying twice to the account of the war part of the same sum. Suppose ten millions borrowed at 4 per cent, and the fund for payment of the interest to produce no more than 200,000l. The whole an
nual charge on the public is 400,000l. It can be no more. But to charge the interest in one part of the account, and then the deficiency in the other, would be charging 600,000l. The deficiency of funds must therefore be also deducted from the peace establish ment in the "Considerations "; and then the peace establishment in that author will be reduced to the
Peace establishment in the " Considerations " Deduct deficiency of land and malt ? 300,000 Dittooffunds . . . . . . . . 202,400
Peace
establishment before the late war, in which no deficiencies of land and malt, or funds are included . . . . . . . ' . .
Difference . . .
2,346,594 ? 760,706
"ii
3,107,300
502,400
307
? same articles with those included in the sum I have already mentioned for the peace establishment before the last war, in the year 1753, and 1754.
? 3,609,700
? ? ? 308
Hi'
OBSERVATIONS ON A LATE PUBLICATION
Being about half the sum which our author has
been pleased to suppose it.
Let us put the whole together. The author states, --
Difference of peace establishment before and
since the war . . . . . . . . . . . ? 1,500,000 Interest of debt contracted by the war . . 2,614,892
The real difference in the peace estab
lishment is . . . . The actual interest of the
. . . . ? 760,706
? 2,315,642 160,000
2,475,642
funded debt, that charged sinking fxmd
including on the
4,114,892
? . . . The actual interest of un
funded debt at most . .
Total interest of debt con tracted by the war . .
Increase of peace establishment,
newdebt . . . . . ; . . . . . . 3,236,348
Error of the author . . . . ? 878,544
lt is true, the extraordinaries of the army have been found considerably greater than the author of the " Considerations" was pleased to foretell they would be. The author of "The Present State" avails himself of that increase, and, finding it suit his purpose, sets the whole down in the peace establish mcnt of the present times. If this is allowed him, his error perhaps may be reduced to 700,000l. But I doubt the author of the " Considerations " will not thank him for admitting 200,000l. and upwards, as the peace establishment for extraordinaries, when that author has so much labored to confine them within 35,000l.
and interest of
? ? ? on THE PRESENT surn or THE NATION.
309
These are some of the capital fallacies of the au thor. To break the thread of my discourse as little as possible, I have thrown into the margin many in stances, though God knows far from the whole of his inaccuracies, inconsistencies, and want of common
care. I think myself obliged to take some notice of them, in order to take ofl" from any authority this writer may have ; and to put an end to the deference which careless men are apt to pay to one who boldly arrays his accounts, and marshals his figures, in per fect confidence that their correctness will never be examined. *
? * Upon the money borrowed in 1760, the premium of one per cent was for twenty-one years, not for twenty; this annuity has been paid eight years instead of seven ; the sum paid is therefore 640,000l. instead of 560,000l. ; the remaining term is worth ten years and a quarter instead of eleven years;* its value is 820,000l. instead of 880,000l. ; and the whole value of that premium is l,460,000l. instead of l,440,000l. The like errors are observable in his computation on the additional capital of three per cent on the loan of that year. In like manner, on the loan of 1762, the author computes on five years'
payment instead of six; and says in express terms, that take 5 from 19, and there remain 13. These are not errors of the pen or the press; the several computations pursued in this part of the work with
great diligence and earnestness prove them errors upon much deliber ation. Thus the premiums in 1759 are east up 90,000l. too little, an error in the first rule of arithmetic. " The annuities borrowed in 1756 and 1758 are," says he, "to continue till redeemed by Parlia ment. " He does not take notice that the first are irredeemable till Feb ruary, 1771, the other till July, 1782. In this the amount of the pre miums is computed on the time which they have run. Weakly and
ignorantly ; for he might have added to this, and strengthened his ar gument, such as it is, by charging also the value of the additional one per cent from the day on which he wrote, to at least that day on which these annuities become redeemable. To make ample amends, however, be has added to the premiums of 15 per cent in 1759, and three per
' See Smart and Demoivre.
? ? ? 310 OBSERVATIONS on A LATE PUBLICATION
However, for argument, I am content to take his
state of it. The debt was and is enormous. The
war was expensive. The best economy had not per haps been used. But I must observe, that war and economy are things not easily reconciled; and that the attempt of leaning towards parsimony in sucha state may be the worst management, and in the end the worst economy in the world, hazarding the total
loss of all the charge incurred, and of everything along with it.
But cui bom all this detail of our debt? Has the author given a single light towards any material re duction of it? Not a glimmering. We shall see in its place what sort of thing he proposes. But before he commences his operations, in order to scare the public imagination, he raises by art magic a thick mist before our eyes, through which glare the most ghastly and horrible phantoms:
'Hunc igitur terrorem animi tenebrasque necesse est, Non radii solis, neque lucida tela diei
Discutiant, sed naturse species ratioque.
Let us therefore calmly, if we can for the fright into which he has put us, appreciate those dreadful and deformed gorgons and hydras, which inhabit the joy less regions of an imagination fruitful in nothing but the production of monsters.
His whole representation is founded on the sup
cent in 1760, the annuity paid for them since their commencement; the fallacy of which is manifest; for the premiums in these cases can be neither more nor less than the additionalcapital for which the pub lic stands engaged, and is just the same whether five or five hundred years' annuity has been paid for it. In private life, no man persuades himself that he has borrowed 200l. because he happens to have paid twenty years' interest on a loan of 100l.
\
? ? ? ? on THE PRESENT surn or rnn NATION. 3'11
posed operation of our debt, upon our manufactures, and our trade. To this cause he attributes a. certain supposed dearness of the necessaries of life, which must compel our manufacturers to emigrate to cheap er countries, particularly to France, and with them the manufacture. Thence consumption declining, and with it revenue. He will not permit the real balance of our trade to be estimated so high as 2,500,000l. ; and the interest of the debt to foreigners carries ofl" 1,500,000l. of that balance. France is not in the same condition. Then follow his wailings and lamentings, which he renews over and over, according
? to his custom-- a declining trade, and decreasing spe cie--on the point of becoming tributary to France --of losing Ireland--of having the colonies torn away from us.
The first thing upon which I shall observe is,* what he takes for granted as the clearest of all propositions, the emigration of our manufacturers to France. I undertake to say that this assertion is totally groimd less, and I challenge the author to bring any sort of proof of it. If living is cheaper in France, that is, to be had for less specie, wages are proportionably lower. No manufacturer, let the living be what it will, was ever known to fly for refuge to low wages. Money is
the first thing which attracts him. Accordingly our wages attract artificers from all parts of the world. From two shillings to one shilling, is a fall in all men's imaginations, which no calculation upon a dif ference in the price of the necessaries of life can com
pensate. But it will be hard to prove that a French artificer is better fed, clothed, lodged, and warmed, than one in England; for that is the sense, and the
* Pages 30-32.
? ? ? 312
OBSERVATIONS on A LATE PUBLICATION
only sense, of living cheaper. If, in truth and fact, our artificer fares as well in all these respects as one in the same state in France, ---how stands the matter in point of opinion and prejudice, the springs by which people in that class of life are chiefly actuated? The idea of our common people concerning French living is dreadful; altogether as dreadful as our au thor's can possibly be of the state of his own country; a way of thinking that will hardly ever prevail on them to desert to France)"
But, leaving the author's speculations, the fact is, that they have not deserted; and of course the man ufacture cannot be departed, or departing, with them. I am not indeed able to get at all the details of our manufactures ; though, I think, I have taken full as much pains for that purpose as our author. Some I have by me; and they do not hitherto, thank God, support the author's complaint, unless a vast increase of the quantity of goods manufactured be a proof of losing the manufacture. On a view of the registers in the West Riding of Yorkshire, for three years be fore the war, and for the three last, it appears, that the quantities of cloths entered were as follows:
? 1752 .
1753 .
1754 .
Pieces broad. . 60,724
. 55,358
. 56,070
172,152
. . .
. . .
Pieces narrow. 72,442 71,618 72,394
216,454
* In a course of years a few manufacturers have been tempted abroad, not by cheap living, but by immense premiums, or set up as masters, and to introduce the manufacture. This must happen in every country eminent for the skill of its artificers, and has nothing to do with taxes and the price of provisions.
? ? ? ON THE PRESENT STATE OF THE NATION.
1765
1766
1767
3 years, ending 1767 3 years, ending 1754
. . . . . .
. . . .
. .
77,419 78,888 78,819
205,181 210,454
18,077
.
III crease
In this manner this capital branch of manufacture has increased, under the increase of taxes; and this not from a declining, but from a greatly flourishing period of commerce. I may say the same on the best authority of the fabric of thin goods at Halifax; of
the bays at Rochdale ; and of that infinite variety of admirable manufactures that grow and extend every year among the spirited, inventive, and enterprising
traders of Manchester.
A trade sometimes seems to perish when it only as
sumes a different form.
Thus the coarsest woollens were formerly exported in great quantities to Russia. The Russians now supply themselves with these goods. But the export thither of finer cloths has increased in proportion as the other has declined. Possibly some parts of the kingdom may have felt something like a languor in business. Objects like trade and man ufacture, which the very attempt to confine would certainly destroy, frequently change their place ;
and thereby, far from being lost, are often highly
.
Pieces broad. 54,000 72,575
102,428
229,663 172,152
57,511
313 ' Pieces nanow.
? Thus some manufactures have decayed 1:1 the west and south, which have made new and
improved.
'
shoots when transplanted into the And here it is impossible to pass by, though
more vigorous
north.
the author has said nothing upon the vast addi tion to the mass of British trade, which has been
? ? it,
? 314
ossnavarxons on A LATE PUBLICATION
made by the improvement of Scotland. What does he think of the commerce of the city of Glasgow, and of the manufactures of Paisley and all the adjacent country? has this anything like the deadly aspect and facies Hippocratica which the false diagnostic of our state physician has given to our trade in general? Has he not heard of the iron-works of such magni tude even in their cradle which are set up on the Carron, and which at the same time have drawn nothing from Sheffield, Birmingham, or Wolver hampton?
This might perhaps be enough to show the entire falsity of the complaint concerning the decline of our manufactures. But every step we advance, this mat ter clears up more ; and the false terrors of the author are dissipated, and fade away as the light appears. " The trade and manufactures of this country (says he) going to ruin, and a diminution of our revenue from consumption must attend the loss of so many seamen and artificers. " Nothing more true than the general observation : nothing more false than its ap plication to our circumstances. Let the revenue on consumption speak for itself : --
Average of net excise, since the new du
ties, three years ending 1767 . . . ? 4,590,734
'
Average increase . . . ? 1,329,040
Here is no diminution. Here on the contrary, an immense increase. This owing, shall be told, to the new duties, which may increase the total bulk, but at the same time may make some diminution of the produce of the old. Were this the fact, would
? Ditto before the new duties, three years
ending1759 . . . . . . . . 3,261,694
? ? it
is
is, I
? ON THE PRESENT srarn or THE NATION. 315
be far from supporting the author's complaint. It might have proved that the burden lay rather too heavy; but it would never prove that the revenue
from consumpticm was impaired, which it was his busi ness to do. But what is the real fact? Let us take, as the best instance for the purpose, the produce of the old hereditary and temporary excise granted in the reign of Charles the Second, whose object is that of_ most of the new impositions, from two averages, each of eight years.
Average, first period, eight years, ending
1754. . . . . . . . . . . . ? 525,317
? Ditto, second period, eight years, ending 1767. . . . . . . . . . . .
538,542 Increase . . . ? 13,225
I have taken these averages as including in each a war and a peace period; the first before the imposi tion of the new duties, the other since those imposi tions; and such is the state of the oldest branch of the revenue from consumption. Besides the acquisi tion of so much new, this article, to speak of no other,
has rather increased under the pressure of all those additional taxes to which the author is pleased to at tribute its destruction. But as the author has made his grand effort against those moderate, judicious, and necessary levies, which support all the dignity, the credit, and the power of his country, the reader will excuse a little further detail on this subject; that we may see how little oppressive those taxes are on the
shoulders of the public, with which he labors so ear nestly to load its imagination. For this purpose we take the state of that specific article upon which the two capital burdens of the war leaned the most im
? ? ? 316 onsnnvar1ons on A LATE PUBLICATION
mediately, by the additional duties on malt, and upon beer.
Average of strong beer, brewed in eight years before the additional malt and beerduties . . . . . . . . .
Barrels.
3,895,059
Average of strong beer, eight years since theduties. . . . . . . . . . 4,060,726
Increase in the last period . 165,667
Here is the effect of two such daring taxes as 3d. by the bushel additional on malt, and 3s. by the barrel additional on beer. Two impositions laid without remission one upon the neck of the other; and laid upon an object which before had been immensely loaded. They did not in the least impair the con sumption: it has grown under them. It appears that, upon the whole, the people did not feel so much inconvenience from the new duties as to oblige them to take refuge in the private brewery. Quite the contrary happened in both these respects in the reign of King William ; and it happened from much slighter impositions? " No people can long consume a com modity for which they are not well able to pay. An enlightened reader laughs at the inconsistent chimera
* Although the public brewery has considerably increased in this latter period, the produce of the malt-tax has been something less than in the former; this cannot be attributed to the new malt-tax. Had this been the cause of the lessened consumption, the public brewery, so much more burdened, must have felt it more. The cause of this diminution of the malt-tax I take to have been principally owing W the greater dearness of corn in the second period than in the first, which, in all its consequences, affected the people in the country much more than those in the towns. But the revenue from consumption was not, on the whole, impaired; as we have seen in the foregeiflg page.
? ? ? ? on THE PRESENT surn or rnn NATION.
317
of our author, of a people universally luxurious, and at the same time oppressed with taxes and declin ing in trade. For my part, I cannot look on these duties as the author does. He sees nothing but the burden. I can perceive the burden as well as he; but I cannot avoid contemplating also the strength that
it. From thence I draw the most comfort able assurances of the future vigor, and the ample resources, of this great, misrepresented country ; and can never prevail on myself to make complaints which have no cause, in order to raise hopes which have no foundation.
When a representation is built on truth and nature, one member supports the other, and mutual lights are given and received from every part. Thus, as our manufacturers have not deserted, nor the manu facture left us, nor the consumption declined, nor the revenue sunk ; so neither has trade, which is at once the result, measure, and cause of the whole, in the
least decayed, as our author has thought proper sometimes to affirm, constantly to suppose, as if it were the most indisputable of all propositions. The reader will see below the comparative state of our trade * in three of the best years before our increase of debt and taxes, and with it the three last years since the author's date of our ruin.
supports
? ? 24,607,870 ii
4' Total Imports, value,
Exports, ditto. . . ? 11,694,912
. 12,243,604
. . 11,787,828
35,726,344 24,607,870
. . 11,118,474 _ . ? 3,706,158
1752 . 1758 . 1754 .
T0t&l
. ? 7,ss9,as9 . 8,625,029 . 8,093,472
. . . . .
Exports exceed imports Medium balance . .
? ? ? 318 OBSERVATIONS ON A LATE PUBLICATION
In the last three years the whole of our exports was between 44 and 45 millions. In the three years preceding the war, it was no more than from 35 to 36 millions. The average balance of the former pe riod was 3,706,000l. ; of the latter, something above four millions. It is true, that whilst the impressions of the author's destructive war continued, our trade was greater than it is at present. One of the neces sary consequences of the peace was, that France must gradually recover a part of those markets of which she had been originally in possession. However, af ter all these deductions, still the gross trade in the worst year of the present is better than in the best year of any former period of peace. A very great part of our taxes, if not the greatest, has been imposed since the beginning of the century. On the author's principles, this continual increase of taxes must have ruined our trade, or at least entirely checked its growth. But I have a manuscript of Davenant, which contains an abstract of our trade for the years 1703 and 1704; by which it appears that the whole export from England did not then exceed 6,552,019l. It is now considerably more than double that amount. Yet England was then a rich and flourishing nation.
The author endeavors to derogate from the balance in our favor as it stands on the entries, and reduces
? Total Imports, value,
Exports, ditto. ? l6,l64,532 14,550,507
14,024,964
44,740,003 32,665,513
1764 . .
1765 . .
1766 . .
Total
? W10,3l9,946 10,889,742 11,475,825
? 32,605,513
. . . . . .
.
. . .
Exports exceed .
12,054,490
.
Medium balance for three last years ? 4,018,168
.
. .
