No More Learning

Returnees with official assistance are less than 5 percent, and the US, Australia and the UK are now tightening entry programs while Canada continues its welcome. Legal status through naturalization extended to just 25,000 in 2016, with France, Belgium and Austria boosting designations. Labor and education are improving as “complementary pathways” but domestic competition and lack of capacity continue as long-term obstacles. Libya and the Philippines had 450,000 and 250,000 respective internal returnees despite strife, which has since worsened and is likely to reignite escape. Almost 3 million sought asylum, and while Afghan, Iraqi and Syrian applications comprised 70 percent in the US half came from Mexico and Central America including Venezuela. Italy received almost 50,000 claims from Nigeria, Gambia, Senegal and Eritrea. France, Greece, Sweden and South Africa also processed large amounts and 900,000 were approved overall with Germany alone rendering 600,000 decisions. Another 3 million people are formally “stateless” and of the 17 million refugees outside the Palestinian saga half have private shelter, and 4. 5 million are in managed or self-designed camps which may not displace anger and fear, the report suggests.

The BIS’ Layered Globalization Glee
2017 June 24 by admin

Posted in: Global Banking
The Bank for International Settlements hailed globalization’s “profoundly positive” results the past half-century in its annual report, due to the “deeply symbiotic” connection between trade and financial openness. It acknowledged inequality and instability with the process, which can be better governed and managed as an economic development strategy both domestically and globally. The proliferation of foreign assets and liabilities and currency hedging, often through banks following cross-border customers, can be divided into three increasingly complex layers moving from simple commodities sale and associated credit to direct transactions for balance sheet purposes. Around half of trade is invoiced in dollars and one-quarter in euros, and basic letters of credit are used in one-sixth of deals. As the global value chain and FDI have deepened in recent decades, more specialized products like derivatives have spread, and in the final phase since the 1980s purely financial engineering supercharged integration so that emerging market international exposure almost doubled to 180 percent of GDP. Developing economies represent half of the worldwide manufacturing chain, with China alone taking one-fifth. As with multinational companies in commerce, global banking groups dominate finance with vast country and regional networks unable to be reflected accurately in nation-based reporting and statistics. Emerging markets’ inward investment contains both debt and equity flows, with the latter implying long-term commitment and the former short-run intra-firm borrowing and speculation. Their exposure has jumped toward offshore money centers as treasuries became more sophisticated and allocations did not involve plan and equipment outlays.

Since the financial crisis a decade ago globalization has been “in check” due in part to lingering trade weakness, but conventional measures of assets and liabilities to output overstate the correction as developing market openness has continued “unabated,” the report insists. Pullback has centered on cross-border bank loans, particularly from Europe, as portfolio fixed-income and stock volume increased. “Deglobalization” is debunked by careful definitions of the prevailing data, which shows lenders in forty jurisdictions reporting a 20 percent drop in cross-border claims from 2007-13 on a balance of payment basis, which can double count and ignore local lines of the consolidated unit. Scrubbing the numbers by bank nationality, Europe’s retreat is pervasive but can be attributed largely to cyclical deleveraging needed to meet stricter BIS capital and liquidity rules. Financial linkages also transfer technology and boost inclusion by allowing low-income borrowers access to new channels, but can favor capital over traditional labor returns to create wealth disparities. In historical experience cross-border credit flows have been pro-cyclical to amplify booms and busts, and the dollar has soared in risk aversion periods as well to harm emerging market accounts. Since the 2008 crash global monetary policy has also been ultra-sensitive to US Federal Reserve moves, and in addition to building foreign reserves macro-prudential tools have been a crucial defense, and joint regulatory approaches have been forged between geographic and functional financial system blocks. Currency swap mechanisms and tax harmonization can go further, especially with long-run interest rate correlation so tight in recent years. In a sampling of 35 countries, 25 had close spillovers from Fed rate and quantitative easing decisions, and simultaneous shocks could add another layer to the future one-world story.



Cuba’s Thwarted Thaw Thickening
2017 June 24 by admin

Posted in: Latin America/Caribbean
Cuban asset prices sank as the Trump administration announced partial reversal of bilateral travel and commercial openings and harshly criticized authoritarian human rights practices overlooked in other regions. The tougher line fulfills a presidential campaign pledge to Miami’s exile community cheering the changes, while business lobbies like the US Chamber of Commerce were upset that global competitors would have easier access, as their countries long ago approved individual tourism and joint ventures under military control that will now be banned after the Treasury Department issues guidelines. Airlines had reduced or severed routes before the decision, as visitor infrastructure from internet availability to hotel occupancy frustrated demand with renewed diplomatic relations two years ago. However big cruise lines with expansion plans through end-decade may preserve their strategy as they cater to groups with accommodations in place, but disappointments also mounted with the lack of credit card acceptance, dual exchange rate, and poor organized visit experience for foreigners. Starwood was the only US operator to offer a resort as an alternative to state-run hotels, as the Brookings Institute projection of $10 billion in hospitality earnings by 2030, twice current imports, appeared remote without underlying tax and administrative shifts as well promoting more private sector investment. Nearby Haiti, with the hemisphere’s lowest per capita income, has been considered a more promising destination, and new President Moise will encourage agricultural and industry hubs with reliable electricity supply around northern beach locations in his economic strategy under an IMF staff-monitored program.

In the Dominican Republic in contrast tourism revenue was up 10 percent last year to over $6. 5 billion, almost one-tenth of output, with 2017 set to deliver another record. European visitors now account for one-quarter of the total, with North Americans still dominant at two-thirds. Remittances in turn, mainly from the US, swelled near 15 percent as Q1 economic growth continued at a 5 percent clip as the regional leader. A primary budget surplus has helped halve the deficit to 2 percent of GDP, and the current account gap is the same with higher gold exports and slashed oil imports, with the difference covered by mining and hotel FDI. Costa Rica is close with 4 percent growth heading into the 2018 election season, with inflation within the 3 percent target range. Fiscal reform has stumbled on political opposition with public debt hitting 60 percent of GDP, with the external portion rising faster on international bond issuance. The 10 percent trade deficit likewise persists, and the central bank has warned capital goods demand may not translate quickly into productive capacity. El Salvador is caught in a low growth twin deficit trap with a $600 million global bond in February used to repay local Treasury bills, as pension fund obligations have not been met amid government infighting. Panama alone has maintained its investment grade as Chinese diplomatic recognition was shifted from Taiwan to Beijing in advance of its president’s White House trip. With expansion Canal toll earnings jumped 20 percent in the first quarter, and re-exports through the Colon Free zone have also picked up to support 5 percent growth. A fiscal responsibility law has enabled sovereign wealth fund transfer, and the Panama papers tax evasion saga has faded although reputation isolation lingers.





Islamic Finance’s Africa Affinity Sweepstakes
2017 June 18 by admin

Posted in: Africa
Malaysia’s Islamic Finance Center regular bulletin surveyed the sector’s “centerpiece” status in a half dozen African countries, with 50 banks including major ones in Egypt, Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa providing sharia-compliant products through dedicated windows. Sukuk bonds in turn have spread to Senegal, Mauritius, Gambia and Morocco with the African Finance Corporation recently issuing a $150 million pilot. Globally the industry should have $6 trillion in assets by end-decade, and Kuala Lumpur’s example, with 75 percent of corporate fixed income in sukuk form, can be replicated elsewhere. The worldwide Islamic bond total last year was $350 billion, almost a 10 percent annual increase. The report argues that the style fits a “responsible investment” strategy with over $20 trillion in commitments and that the regulatory and liquidity management pieces are now in place with twenty core standards and official backstop facilities. African growth is partially due to Asian and Middle East funds seeking additional outlets and to its natural resource and demographic base creating demand for credit and savings tools. It is also a means to financial inclusion with the vast unbanked population, with family and friends relied on ten times more than formal sources for small-scale loans across eight representative countries including Niger, Uganda and Zambia. Micro-finance could be a catalyst for business such as halal food export and the Islamic Development Bank and Sudan have concentrated efforts there. Regional infrastructure needs are close to $100 billion/year and long-term Islamic bonds should meet diversification goals as short term government activity picks up in Gambia, Cote d’Ivoire and Senegal. “ Green” clean energy projects are proliferating across the continent to relieve shortages where these techniques could be adopted at the outset, aided by technical assistance from official lenders as well as consulting and training arms attached to more advanced Islamic hubs.

Egypt’s previous push was associated with Muslim Brotherhood rule, but since President Al-Sisi came to power it has been tied to local and external bond market normalization in the context of IMF program return. Foreign investors have acquired $1 billion in domestic instruments after shunning them entirely since the Arab Spring. The first Fund mission praised the 9 percent of GDP budget deficit and 4% growth for the first quarter, although inflation spurted to 30 percent after currency and subsidy swings. The central bank hiked the policy rate 200 basis points to over 17 percent to further fatten local yields although taxation could change. Nigeria has also tightened monetary policy through open market operations and foreign exchange sales as officials try to ease currency controls in the belief that economic shock has passed with oil price recovery and non-oil sector stimulus. Spending is due to rise 10 percent in real terms in the latest budget as the government looks to foreign military and diplomatic support to fight Boko Haram and famine in the north. The president is still on extended medical leave with an undisclosed illness and the vice president is by all accounts in charge of the reform and stabilization agenda to include a new petroleum industry bill debated for years without passage. A diaspora external bond is in the pipeline with a sukuk version likely as the family expands.

Venezuela’s Crass Credit Craving
2017 June 18 by admin

Posted in: Latin America/Caribbean
Venezuelan bonds as top EMBI performers came under pressure for boycott or index removal, after leading houses were reported to have scooped up issues held by the central bank and other captive buyers at a steep discount through small specialist brokers. Goldman Sachs bought a $3 billion chunk at one-third the price through a London intermediary, and Nomura and Morgan Stanley were also involved in deals. Opposition parties in Caracas condemned the move and expatriate demonstrations were organized in Miami and Washington as a former Planning Minister, head of Harvard’s International Development Institute, referring to widespread staple food shortages, dubbed the instruments “hunger bonds. ” He called for benchmark index removal as MSCI applied long ago for equities given pervasive exchange controls. Although international reserves are not formally divulged they are estimated in gross terms at $10 billion, roughly equivalent to import needs with scant cushion for debt-servicing. PDVSA has already executed a maturity swap which won bare acceptance with local investor control, and its future was further thrown into question with its chief executive due to depart. A President Maduro loyalist is set to fill the slot, who was previously in charge at US unit Citgo, which has pledged collateral both to bondholders and Russian partner Rosneft in case of default. The Treasury Department increased scrutiny of the relationship as the Trump administration debates sanctions against the regime after the President tweeted about a meeting with the spouse of jailed opposition head Lopez. Military support at home may be wavering as security forces demur at cracking down on street protesters, as Maduro’s bid for a hand-picked national assembly to rewrite the constitution and mollify popular outcry has met with sweeping criticism following the Organization for American States’ anti-democracy condemnation. The Chinese meanwhile are bracing for further losses on their $50 billion bilateral loans with unknown asset claims that could place them in direct conflict with other creditors.

Previous high-flyer Brazil has also lost favor, as MSCI equity gains fell to 3 percent through May, with the Electoral Court to determine whether President Temer received illegal campaign contributions after release of a payoff tape he claimed was “doctored. ” Core PMDB party backing may no longer be assured as the stage is set for another potential impeachment. He promises to continue pressing labor and fiscal reform agendas, but major public pension overhaul in particular could be in danger with the budget deficit heading toward 10 percent of GDP despite renewed growth. The Temer recording allegedly came from one of the founding brothers of global meat supplier JBS, which faces bond and stock holder lawsuits after admitting to bribery and accepting a $3 billion penalty. Prosecutors got wind of wider misconduct after investigating inspector kickbacks for tainted products. Beef rival Argentina in contrast paced frontier markets with a 45 percent jump on possible track toward an MSCI upgrade in advance of primary elections before the October parliamentary poll. President Macri and his party intend to underscore economic success with the recession over and fiscal targets mostly honored with a one-time amnesty as $30 billion in capital has poured into one-month central bank bonds with yields over 20 percent. A new internationally-compliant consumer inflation gauge will be operational in July with likely IMF endorsement as the current administration craves its approval after a decade of resistance.

The World Bank’s Economic Prospect Pratfalls
2017 June 10 by admin

Posted in: IFIs
The World Bank’s June Global Economic Prospects analysis predicted 4 percent emerging market growth this year after 2016’s 3. 5 percent “stagnation,” on broad commodity export and domestic demand rebound, but warned of longer-term structural productivity and trade drags for an overall “soft” recovery. Fiscal sustainability is often an issue, while currencies have strengthened with inflation in retreat. Household balance sheets are stretched in big natural resource countries like Brazil, Russia and Kazakhstan, and energy lags metal and farm sales performance. Sub-Sahara Africa has floundered with 2. 5 percent growth forecast on additional political, security and weather challenges. In Francophone West Africa infrastructure has been the main driver, and Senegal re-tapped the Eurobond market in May. Current account deficits remain high in Rwanda and Uganda as they also struggle with refugee inflows. Exchange rates have collapsed in the Democratic Republic of Congo as President Kabila clings to power despite promised elections, and in Mozambique with external debt default following an inflation spike above 20 percent in the first quarter. While China and India slow other major developing economies including Mexico and Turkey will pick up the slack, but “headwinds” linger against further momentum ranging from lack of value chain integration to governance and institutional weakness. By region Europe-Central Asia and MENA will grow 2 percent, and Latin America/Caribbean just 1 percent this year, with the latter dampened by US policy fallout from the new administration’s pledged import and immigration curbs. Budget stimulus in industrial nations should be a net benefit, but “downside” protectionist and geopolitical risks will outweigh it, according to the Bank. The Middle East is at the perennial center of conflict worries, but North Korea is now in the mix and food and water scarcity cut across wide swathes of Africa. Tighter and more volatile global finance could loom with monetary policy changes not just in the North America, Europe and Japan but in China as well with the current deleveraging push with shadow banking’s squeeze. Dollar appreciation could aggravate corporate foreign currency borrowing as domestic credit backstops are not as readily available, according to the IIF’s latest lending condition survey with the still below 50 index. Oil prices could again slide with shale gas competition and non-observance of OPEC pacts. The earlier output boom from capital accumulation has not been followed by innovation and technology strides, and demographic pressures have also started to limit potential, the review cautions.

China is singled out for reform urgency with progress in state enterprise, tax, local government debt, and securities market consolidation amid lingering corporate and financial vulnerabilities. Private sector discipline and hard borrowing constraints could go further, and land and urban migration shifts can boost efficiency and employment. Emerging economies generally need increased banking system capital and liquidity, and public debt maturities should be extended and sovereign stabilization funds replenished. Labor and education overhaul and higher fixed capital formation with better property rights should be priorities and bilateral and regional commercial deepening in the absence of global agreements, such as the EU’s recent partnerships with CIS and Central American counterparts may be the future model. These accords can slash poverty but require supporting competition and capital market rules for more favorable prospects, the Bank insists.





The Arab Spring’s Seasonal Exam Markdown
2017 June 10 by admin

Posted in: MENA
The IMF completed reviews on the second post-Arab Spring round of programs with Jordan, Tunisia and Morocco, as Egypt awaited a turn after signing its agreement six months ago with stock markets flat to negative reflecting the lackluster reports. Jordan’s economic plight remained “challenging” with 2 percent growth, 4 percent inflation and over 15 percent decade-high unemployment. The fiscal deficit fell to 4 percent of GDP last year, with state utility company losses down, but public debt rose to 95 percent and the current account gap swelled above 9 percent. Geopolitical and security tensions still “impinge” on the medium-term investment outlook, despite additional donor support for refugee hosting, now able to be channeled through a World Bank-led $1 billion concessional platform. The Fund urged further moves against tax exemption and evasion and toward public-private partnerships to reduce budget costs and strengthen infrastructure efficiency. The central bank has hiked rates with foreign reserves slipping below target, as work continues on deposit protection, insurance, bankruptcy and other rules to bolster the business climate. Tunisia also was scolded for its runaway government wage bill elevating debt/GDP to 65 percent as growth doubles to a meager 2. 5 percent, “too low” to attack youth joblessness and interior region poverty. The 5-year development plan aims to restore stability and tackle structural barriers through corruption and state bank and enterprise cleanups. Exchange rate flexibility and pension overhaul are on the agenda, and the country could benefit from the G-20 Compact for Africa initiative under outgoing host Germany. At home protests have erupted over proposed “economic reconciliation” legislation that would grant amnesty to illegal fund holders in return for declaring and investing the proceeds, as a “second revolution” has sparked occupation of key mining sites triggering military protection. The new US-trained Finance Minister has yet to win additional backing from Washington, as preparations for the joint commercial summit inaugurated last year stay on hold under the Trump administration.

For Morocco’s $3. 5 billion arrangement risks are to the “downside” despite an expected growth rebound to 4 percent with unfinished fiscal and banking sector consolidation. Inflation is in the 1-2 percent range, and corporate and household deleveraging cut credit expansion to 5 percent, as the bad loan ratio neared double digits. Concentration with leading banks chasing the same state company borrowers and cross-border exposure throughout Sub-Sahara networks are major concerns, as the construction industry also heads into a weak period. The current account deficit should be 2 percent of GDP this year with good phosphate exports and tourism and remittance inflows. After preliminary fuel subsidy rollback, budget efforts have stalled and the Justice and Development party after securing an extended mandate in October elections intends to pursue decentralization, civil service salary caps, and better public enterprise governance. Parliament is set to approve provisions for bank emergency liquidity assistance as formal supervisory understandings are forged in the respective Francophone zones with a Moroccan presence. The currency peg is gradually shifting to a fluctuation band, and “e-regulation” is at the center of a campaign to lift the number 70 ranking in the World Bank’s Doing Business publication. Small firm credit access is a priority, and new collateral procedures are designed to unblock traditional financial establishment hesitation, according to the latest Article IV survey.

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Private Equity’s Public Preference Probe
2017 June 3 by admin

Posted in: Fund Flows
The latest EMPEA trade association annual survey of over one hundred private equity institutional investors with $500 billion in dedicated global assets averaging one-fifth in emerging markets offered mixed sentiment, as dollar levels are due to rise while allocation size in the overall portfolio shrinks. While developed market exposure continues to rise in contrast, bigger managers with $10 billion or with a decade or more experience are more likely to increase the relative share. Private pension funds will forge fewer general partner (GP) relationships while development lenders plan to extend them with at least five new ones, as both groups stress operating savvy rather than buyout approach as their main selection factor. Co-investing and deal by deal structures are important and local currency returns are no longer the decisive benchmark in light of recent volatility implying resort to hedging strategies. India is the number one preferred destination and attracted $8. 5 billion the past two years, Southeast Asia is in second and Latin America ex-Brazil took third as almost 20 transactions were completed in Argentina after a long drought. Sub-Sahara Africa beat out China, which takes one-quarter of capital deployed, and Russia and Turkey were at the bottom of the heap. Brazil’s standing rose but 15% of respondents will cut or end involvement there with continued political upheaval despite economic stabilization and growth return. By industry consumer goods and healthcare were the runaway favorites, with the former attracting $25 billion in 2015-16. Although half of investors complained about lack of exit and fund distribution, only 15% are considering secondary sales for cash and liquidity as they await efficiency and transparency improvements. Currency risk topped the list of macro concerns after the dollar’s recent surge erased local unit gains, and GP team stability was the chief operational one, especially with regular talent poaching and spinoffs from original vehicles reshuffling personnel. While 70% of limited partners polled thought their portfolio performance met expectations, only a minority still believe the previous 15% desired annual return is in reach. They assume developed markets will continue to lag and tap Asian funds as the top prospects, while Europe/MENA and Russia-Turkey offerings are not likely to gain 10%.

Sponsors have looked to Gulf sovereign wealth pools for anchor money, but with Saudi Arabia’s $20 billion commitment to a Blackstone infrastructure fund announced during President Trump’s trip there for an Arab summit, PE attention has turned to possible local deals that could be targeted in the mandate. The stock exchange was down through April on the MSCI index, but public capital market development is a core component of the 2030 plan’s modernization push, with equities to be further opened to foreign investors who currently account for 5 percent of activity. The June index review may position the bourse for an upgrade from frontier status, amid preparations for an historic IPO by oil and non-oil behemoth Aramco awaiting sensitive balance sheet and government relationship disclosures that may not satisfy global asset manager demands. They are otherwise dubious of reform intentions to stoke 1 percent GDP growth, expand private sector share, and restrain the budget deficit after civil servant allowance reinstatement and a new housing and debt restructuring stimulus package estimated at tens of billions of dollars over the near term without a convincing exit strategy.



Contingent Sovereign Debt’s Emergency Appeal
2017 June 3 by admin

Posted in: General Emerging Markets
After months of public and private sector consultations the IMF completed a policy paper at the request of the G-20 on promoting use of state contingent debt instruments (SCDIs) adjusted to continuous economic indicators like GDP or singular events such as natural disasters. They are recognized for countercyclical and risk-sharing features, and recent development institution focus has been on commodity hedging for low-income countries. Recently in Argentina’s and Ukraine’s restructurings growth-linked warrants were offered, but the concept has yet to gain widespread acceptance even in current global low-yield conditions inviting alternatives. As an automatic stabilizer they “preserve space” in bad times , but other tools are available to serve this purpose including foreign reserve accumulation, fiscal rules, commercial insurance, and central bank swap lines. However these backstops all have downsides and are not as accessible as well-designed long-term SCDIs in principle, which also increase securities diversification and the global financial system “safety net,” according to the Fund. Previous simulations show that introduction of GDP-tied bonds can raise the national debt limit before crisis by dozens of points as a fraction of output. The natural investor base would not be commercial banks or other mark-to-market buyers, but so called real money participants that can balance country welfare with asset returns. They nonetheless demand high novelty yields to compensate for liquidity and performance doubts, which would be magnified with data frequency and reporting gaps. For troubled countries the advance cost could spike, and until a track record develops moral hazard could argue that officials will not be as motivated to tackle macro and structural economic weakness. For issuers the operation must be the responsibility of independent debt managers to avoid political considerations and short-term time horizons, and to prepare in the context of asset class trends and sentiment swings. These combined factors argue for gradual testing within strictly-defined gain and loss boundaries, with ratings agencies brought in at an early stage, the study believes.

Official lenders like France’s development agency already provide counter-cyclical facilities to poor countries, and both advanced and emerging economies have adopted inflation-adjusted obligations and contingency features have entered sovereign debt rescheduling since the 1990s Brady Plan. Value recovery rights were in a dozen transactions, with half in detachable form, but the experience has often been indexation lags and undue complexity impeding further adaptation. Nonetheless investors surveyed were open to fresh pilots, on the assumption that pricing may be up to 50 basis points over conventional offerings at the outset. Legal and regulatory treatment should be equal to other instruments, and standard contracts and benchmark issues are preferred, with jurisdiction choices London and New York. Commodity exporters, small states, and emerging markets with shallow local bond activity are potential priority initial borrowers. Pension funds controlling $40 trillion are natural takers but may be confined to hard currency investment-grade exposure. The Islamic finance sector, currently with over $150 billion in sovereign and quasi-sovereign sukuks outstanding, would also be a likely target along with insurers and reinsurers. The document proposes three design versions, one with an automatic maturity extension trigger upon adverse statistics or events. It suggests that official creditors could add guarantees or otherwise work to galvanize multiple attempts through balance sheet and technical support, but concludes urgency is lacking.

Institutional Investors’ Sweeping Sustainability Suspicions
2017 May 26 by admin

Posted in: General Emerging Markets
Ahead of consecutive UN conferences on Financing for Development and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) a blue-ribbon panel of investment managers and international lending agency officials released a long-term action plan to mobilize global banking and capital markets participants around environment, social and governance (ESG) returns. Infrastructure alone will need $2. 5 trillion over the next dozen years for low-carbon energy and education-health purposes, and current financial assets at $300 trillion and increasing 5 percent annually are an untapped pool ready to look elsewhere with the large negative-yield industrial country sovereign debt category. However a wholesale commercial, regulatory, technology and long-term “reorientation” is needed for outcomes that will only be clear over decades , according to the study under the auspices of the Business Commission on Sustainable Development. New international standards like Basel III do not incorporate SDG criteria, even if the UN Environment Program and related efforts try to transmit practices and principles. The report recommends that banks, rating agencies, stock exchange listed companies and institutional investors with $100 trillion under management apply yardsticks to be created by global accounting and rulemaking bodies. Central banks in Bangladesh, Brazil, China and Indonesia already impose requirements around “green” projects so that lenders duly disclose and monitor benefits and risks. On reporting, following a series of initiatives since the 1990s, over 90 percent of the word’s 250 leading corporations detail ESG performance. Almost 1500 fund houses have signed the UN responsible investment code, but the lack of common universal metrics remains and prevents company comparisons, with 80 percent of managers expressing discontent in a Price Waterhouse survey. Regardless of the gap thousands of empirical studies show a positive correlation between compliance and profitability. Small and midsize enterprises, which have not participated due to cost and information disadvantages, could be specifically targeted in future outreach and standard-setting.

Infrastructure has a $2-3 trillion yearly hole through the SDGs 2030 deadline, two-thirds in emerging and frontier economies, in sectors including energy, transport, telecoms, water and sanitation. The goal is to limit global warming to a two degree temperature rise, as the urban population will roughly double by midcentury to 6. 5 billion. Public financing falls short even in the US and Europe, where it is under 2 percent of GDP, one-third the rate to meet developing world demand. The eight major development banks in turn provide just $40 billion annually and they could leverage up to $1 trillion without jeopardizing credit ratings. In seventy five low income countries, mainly in Africa private investment has been only $75 billion the past five years. Insurers are also missing as asset and risk managers for climate change, following a pattern of minimal natural disaster coverage that came to $100 billion in the latest estimate. Regional initiatives like China’s $1 trillion One Belt One Road are in a startup phase and the two big policy banks, each with over $300 billion in assets, charged with credit support are struggling with previous portfolio cleanup in that geographic nexus and elsewhere, particularly Latin America. Private pension fund expansion must go further and sovereign wealth pools should increase infrastructure project exposure with governments acting as the ultimate market maker for sustaining long-term trading products, the group suggests.

Africa’s Multiple Motor Misfires
2017 May 26 by admin

Posted in: Africa
Sub-Sahara African MSCI stock market performance was lackluster through April as the IMF released a new economic outlook underscoring the urgency of “growth engine restart. ” Last year’s 1. 5 percent rate was the worst in two decades, with two-thirds of countries representing 85 percent of GDP slowing. The 2017 prediction is for 2. 5 percent, mainly due to commodity and drought recovery in Angola, Nigeria and South Africa. The terms of trade shock will linger for members of the Central African CFA Franc zone, as well as Ghana and Zambia both turning to the Fund for rescues. Non-resource dependent Cote d’Ivoire, Kenya and Senegal have managed high 5 percent-plus range growth, but budget deficits and public debt have run up with mounting arrears and bank bad loan ratios. Fiscal consolidation is overdue in Francophone pegged currency areas, and even where the exchange rate can act as safety valve controls hamper effectiveness. External debt costs have spiked for these frontier markets with postponed access, with the average EMBI spread near 500 basis points in March. The budget gap was 4. 5 percent of output in 2016 with big payment backlogs in Gabon, Cameroon, and Mozambique, now in a second round of commercial bond rescheduling. The parallel market premium reached records in Angola and Nigeria with their official restrictions and Ethiopia also imposed import permit rules. Regional inflation is over 5 percent, and benchmark rates are often negative in real terms and central bank refinancing facilities can offset headline tightening. Current account deficits at 4 percent of GDP are double the pre-commodity price correction level, and median government debt is over 50 percent retracing the relief from last decade’s Heavily Indebted Poor Country program. Dollar appreciation against the euro has aggravated profiles and debt service-revenue indicators for oil exporters are at almost 60 percent from previous single digits.

Bank private sector credit is down, and prudential policies like Kenya’s 400 basis point loan rate cap and the absence of consumer and corporate registries and foreclosure procedures worsen the crunch. Cross-border pan-African networks, with half of deposits in 15 countries, have a larger presence than formerly dominant European banks but pose contagion risk as home and host country regulators try to forge common reporting and oversight approaches. Natural disasters are a final blow, with widespread drought and crop infestations and famine again spreading in the Sahel region. Tax revenue mobilization should be a stabilization priority, and financial sector and business climate development are key items on the unfinished structural reform agenda.
In an Article IV report for Francophone West African Monetary Union members at the same time, the Fund lauded over 6 percent growth but criticized budget shortfalls toward that number and a 40 percent public credit jump. Reserves dipped below four months imports and the security situation remained precarious with terror attack and civil unrest throughout the zone. Private participation in infrastructure and better debt management would relieve pressure, and the central bank should strengthen the interbank and securities markets for improved monetary policy. Basel II and III standards are being phased in, and only half of banks meet the current capital adequacy minimum and deposit insurance and resolution regimes are still absent with the supervisory engine idling, according to the review.

Global Reserves’ Restocked Shelf Space
2017 May 21 by admin

Posted in: General Emerging Markets
Global foreign exchange reserves, after slumping $1 trillion from mid-2014 through the end of last year mainly due to dollar fluctuations, have stabilized in recent months with restored emerging market capital inflows, according to IMF and central bank figures. The global total is now almost $11 trillion and $8. 5 trillion for developing economies after a double-digit annual fall from China and Gulf country drawdowns in particular. Fund tracking data shows $50 billion in foreign investor debt and equity allocation in the first quarter, with leaps in IIF monthly high-frequency numbers. Currency manipulation through deliberate depreciation is no longer the case, although many countries have excess reserves as defined by international yardsticks of four months import and short-term debt coverage, with Hungary and Turkey exceptions with shortfalls on the respective measures. The emerging market 15 percent savings rate now tops the developed nation one, and the spurt outstrips the reserve accumulation pace. The US and UK on the flip side run the highest current account deficits as a portion of world output, although the dollar accounts for two-thirds of foreign exchange holdings, with the euro a distant second at 20 percent, and the RMB only 1 percent. In fixed income both external sovereign and corporate issuance at $75 billion and $170 billion through April are at records. In the former half the supply has been from the Middle East, with Argentina also contributing $7. 5 billion. These new entrants have spurred the asset class, along with a $100 billion annual refinancing hump toward end-decade. Big houses like JP Morgan predict $50 billion in retail and institutional inflows this year, and 5 percent cash positions built up during the initial Trump confrontation scare can help accommodate heavy hard currency-denominated pipelines.

The CEMBI spread at 250 basis points over US Treasuries is at an unprecedented low with a 4 percent index return so far, and projected high-yield defaults have halved to 2 percent with commodity price recovery. Final issuance in 2017 should approach $400 billion, with one-quarter from Asia, almost all China. One third of advanced economy bonds still carry negative yields, and Latin America has been the best performing region, as Brazil and Russia bounced off bottoms. The difference between speculative and investment-grade paper has narrowed to 300 basis points and scarcer euro-denominated have returned more than dollar bonds through April. Commodities remain mixed, and dollar strength has faded, but the main risk is with unhedged domestic-oriented consumer and utility names. Daily trading volume by the US TRACE system is $3. 5 billion, half in quasi-sovereigns. Dedicated assets under management are $80 billion, and so-called crossover investor interest has increased although US high-yield exposure is still below 3 percent. Recovery values were dismal last year at 35 cents, and 20 instruments in Brazil and Venezuela currently trade at 50 percent of par or under in deep distress. Net debt and ratings downgrade ratios have improved with better earnings estimates. Of the $2 trillion tracked half is quasi-sovereign with Asia and the Gulf having majorities in the category, and leverage indicators have stabilized although state support is the credit bulwark increasingly offset by policy wobbles, analysts caution.

The Balkans’ Suppressed Agrokor Agony
2017 May 21 by admin

Posted in: Europe
Croatia, Slovenia and Serbia held on to single-digit MSCI Frontier index gains through April following passage of a law to facilitate orderly restructuring at food and retail chain Agrokor, with hundreds of thousands of employees and suppliers across ex-Yugoslavia after it was unable to get emergency commercial loans. The Zagreb government under terms of EU membership cannot guarantee the private conglomerate’s liabilities despite its systemic importance, and such a move would jeopardize fiscal deficit progress at less than 1 percent of GDP last year to lift potential Brussels sanctions. Domestic consumption and investment will suffer pending resolution, and could jeopardize the 3 percent growth target likely with good tourism numbers. Banks in the sub-region face a blow but may be able to absorb it with Serbia’s IMF cleanup, Slovenia’s privatization of NLB, and Croatia’s new single borrower rules capping exposure at one-quarter of capital. The local sector has just emerged from the Swiss-franc mortgage conversion mess, and Agrokor provisions will again cramp profitability while the central bank is on standby to offer liquidity. The perennial coalition balancing act could be strained after the main opposition party SDP proposed a no-confidence vote against the Finance Minister, a former senior executive of the company. Another cabinet reshuffle is expected, but the prime minister has fought another election round until alternatives are exhausted to try to advance the economic modernization agenda demanded by EU accession and ratings agencies to forestall further downgrades with the 85 percent of GDP public debt. Balkans interest shifted to Romania amid the fallout as stocks rose 15 percent, but a fiscal deficit blowout to 4 percent, the same as projected growth, has prompted unease. The new government has brushed off IMF recommendations with pension and salary hikes, and was forced to backtrack on a corruption amnesty bill only after massive street protests. The current account gap likewise widened to 3 percent of output despite a weaker currency adjusted for inflation. Interest rates have been on hold but tightening may be forced by the loose budget and a series of scheduled VAT and customs duty increases.

Ukraine has also been a double-digit performer after the Fund released another $1 billion from the $17 billion program and 2 percent growth was achieved in 2016 after years of near-depression. However enthusiasm is muted by the renewed outbreak of fighting in the East coupled with a blockade against the Russia-backed separatists, which President Porochenko, with a 10 percent approval rating, was late to endorse. His former business colleague and central bank head Gontareva resigned her post after spearheading a crackdown against leading oligarchs which won international praise but domestic enmity. In a survey 80 percent of citizens distrusted her policies, and with departure reform momentum may flag at the same time pension and healthcare overhauls are in the works. Privatization of strategic enterprises has yet to resume, and a $3 billion sovereign bond dispute with Moscow is pending in London, while officials have hinted at reopening the recent global deal with commercial holders even as GDP-linked warrants may pay off this year. The prime minister, plucked from a post as mayor, has avoided his predecessor’s corruption taint ahead of 2019 elections, which could be advanced if austerity agony persists.

Iran’s Rouhani Economic Resistance Rut (Asia Times)
2017 May 13 by admin

Posted in: MENA
After a 5% loss from December to end-March, the Tehran Stock Exchange retraced the previous 79000 point level ahead of May 19 elections pitting the incumbent President Hassan Rouhani against a half dozen approved candidates Hard-liners Ebrahim Raisi, a protégé of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, and Mohammed Baqer Qalibaf, the capital’s mayor since 2005 and a contender in the 2012 contest, are positioned as the main rivals after the ruling clerics rejected former President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad’s surprise application for another term. In a televised debate these rivals castigated rising unemployment, officially up 1. 5% to 12. 5% the past year despite Rouhani’s international nuclear deal for sanctions relief, which restored oil exports to 2 million barrels/ day for estimated 4. 5% growth according to the IMF. Their campaign platforms draw on the Supreme Leader’s “resistance economy” concept, spurning Western foreign investment and advocating self-reliance and higher cash transfers to the poor and struggling middle class.

Rouhani has acknowledged slow improvement in living standards since the accord went into effect in early 2016, and lapses in bank and state enterprise restructuring to boost competitiveness. His description at the time of the “golden page” in history was overstated and may be further tarnished should President Trump formally withdraw the US from the six-nation pact, but the stock market is betting he and his team could redouble competitiveness and integration efforts with extended tenure. However even with victory these reform wishes could again be misplaced by populist backlash magnified by the race, as the growing tab to rescue government banks and companies again resuscitates recession fears.

Raisi was appointed to head the country’s biggest charitable foundation, with $15 billion in assets in charge of the holiest shrine in Masshad and close ties to the Revolutionary Guards still under Washington’s commercial and financial prohibitions. An Islamic law scholar, he also spent his career working with the security forces and was a member of the notorious “Death Commission” two decades ago which killed thousands of political prisoners. Supporters tout his experience as head of the religious endowment for charting economic direction that is “pro-people and production” and avoids “social shocks,” according to recent statements. In the past four years of Rouhani’s term the Guards have taken over nominally “privatized” factories and properties, and continue to control large chunks through affiliates of leading stock exchange listings. Analysts attribute their dominance to the “corruption, mismanagement and lack of regulation” which continue to place Iran in the lower tier of the World Bank’s “Doing Business” ranking.

Raisi has seized on the rich-poor gap and 35% youth joblessness to call for a tripling in budget cash handouts, even though fellow conservatives like the parliamentary speaker Ali Larjani remind him no money is available with the chronic deficit and 60% of the population escaping tax. He may turn to the central bank and state-owned lenders as an alternative for resource transfer, but so-called quasi-fiscal activities are already high and explain the 20 percent annual rise in the monetary base jeopardizing the single-digit inflation target. President Rouhani managed to slash the rate from 40% to just over 10% with relatively tight policies, and hailed such achievements as “actions not slogans” in re-election rhetoric. Diversification from hydrocarbon dependence has been another hallmark, and the non-oil current account is now roughly in balance with almost $90 billion in exports for the end-March fiscal year, the Economy Ministry reported.

However bank bad loans following local classification rules remain over one-tenth of portfolios, and proposed cleanup legislation that would stiffen guidelines and grant more independent enforcement and resolution powers are stuck in political limbo. The next government may face an outright crisis with “difficult to address” issues including recapitalization and rollback of targeted lending schemes, according to the Industry and Trade Minister. The overdue reckoning coincides with Iranian bank reconnection to the external SWIFT payments network and applications to reopen branches in Europe in Asia, as smaller counterparts beneath the radar of lingering US sanctions forge correspondent relationships. These ties inject new cross-border risk as the dual exchange rate system also awaits modernization, with such obstacles potentially resistant to near-term change by the surviving reform constituency.







China’s Index Inclusion Indentations
2017 May 13 by admin

Posted in: Asia
China’s respective main and A share categories were up 15 percent and 5 percent respectively on the MSCI Index, as the provider is poised to marginally add the latter to the country’s 28 percent global weighting with access upgrades from the Hong Kong Connect experiment. Big houses like Black Rock consulted for the June decision have endorsed progress to begin incorporation, despite existing underweight positions and continued reservations over banking system and currency paths. PMI readings were barely over 50 in April, as the IMF reported that RMB assets were only 1 percent of combined central bank reserves after SDR entry and Fitch Ratings cited internationalization stall the past two years with depreciation and capital outflow streaks. Cross-border bank transfer rules requiring inward and outward matching were lifted, but the state foreign exchange body indicated that onshore trading must deepen and stabilize before broader controls are eased. In March bank hard currency sales were the lowest in six months, but major policy changes will likely be suspended until after the next Communist Party Congress due to extend President Xi’s tenure. He and US President Trump also have been in contact over the North Korea nuclear crisis, but harsher trade and financial moves against ally Pyongyang may in the same vein be postponed until after the leadership conclave. Consensus GDP growth estimates are between 6. 5-6. 7 percent for the rest of the year, and the President recently criticized slow government enterprise restructuring, as planners previewed statistical overhauls and tax cuts.

The benchmark 7-day repo rate passed 3 percent as the central bank embraced “neutral and prudent” monetary policy in view of “alarming” leverage which provoked another shadow banking crackdown in a flurry of risk management edicts. Bond and equity flows though entrusted investments, conservatively estimated at $1 trillion and commingled with wealth management products, could be caught in the net. The Shanghai stock market had the biggest daily loss this year as the securities regulator joined in to punish irregularities “without mercy. ” Insurance will not be spared from coordinated stricter oversight and reporting as assets more than doubled in 5 years to RMB 15 trillion in 2016, and policy holders channeled money offshore to evade restrictions. In April China Minsheng bank was snared in an unguaranteed high-yield offering scandal and trust companies were explicitly order to slash property exposure as credit overall rose 25 percent to the sector in the first quarter. Standard bond issuance in social financing also attracted supervisory scrutiny with banks buying half of all dollar bonds for potential currency mismatch, and the junk category accounting for $12 billion through April compared with $2 billion in 2016. According to JP Morgan data, Chinese corporates have represented two-thirds of global activity, and yields have narrowed toward onshore ones with buoyant conditions and double-digit profit jumps from last year’s nadir. The Hong Kong Bond Connect is scheduled for launch in the coming months to further meld the investor base, as RMB deposits in the enclave otherwise dip to half the 2014 peak, and the local dollar continues to weaken against the greenback. However first quarter mortgage credit soared 80 percent on an annual basis with private home prices again at a record triggering index indigestion.

Sovereign Wealth Funds’ Somber Secrets
2017 May 5 by admin

Posted in: Fund Flows
The latest sovereign wealth fund (SWF) profile from tracker Prequin, after a decade of following the industry, shows assets largely flat at $6. 5 trillion across 75 vehicles. The ten largest control 80 percent of the total, led by Norway with $835 billion and smaller ones in Malaysia and elsewhere have combined for scale. Hydrocarbon earnings provide over half of capital, with the Abu Dhabi and Kuwait Investment Authorities main representatives. Asian countries with large trade surpluses, headed by China, are the other 45 percent and non-energy commodity producers account for just 1 percent of the field. Traditional public equity and fixed income asset classes are in the portfolios of 80 percent of participants, and Ghana and Peru completely allocate to bonds. Private debt and equity also draws a majority, and over half are in alternatives like real estate, infrastructure and natural resources with Kazakhstan and Angola among the examples. Hedge funds are another strategy and take one-tenth of global institutional money there, but their short-term nature and illiquidity limit popularity. Equity engagement can be designed to support the local stock exchange as in Taiwan’s case and Venezuela is rare in having no such exposure after controls forced its market out of the MSCI index. Distressed loans are the chief private debt class, with European banks with EUR 2 trillion on their books the prevailing source. According to consultants Price Waterhouse the SWF definition meet basic criteria, including a clear mandate as a financial passive investor; an autonomous structure to counter the resource “curse” and fiscal imprudence; and distinct governance and operation apart from the government in power. Funds nonetheless can come under official interference and pressure despite nominal independence and protection, as with requests to Brazil’s and Nigeria’s startups to aid the budget and currency and the transfer of post-coup try nationalized companies to Turkey’s.

Turkey’s delegation to the IMF-World Bank spring meetings downplayed such concern and presented President Erdogan’s razor-thin referendum win on constitutional changes as a political stability sign. The next national elections are scheduled for 2019, and the Syrian border situation is calmer with greater territorial control. The GDP growth forecast is 4 percent, and the inflation burst from lira depreciation should recede to manageable single digits with monetary tightening. Externally, the current account gap should remain constant and debt rollover ratios for private companies are above 100 percent, although large holes exist in the balance of payment errors and omissions column. The structural reform agenda, which initially included private pension promotion, will be reactivated in the wake of the plebiscite and concentrate on better public finance management and other higher efficiency areas. Russian representatives likewise cast Western sanctions and diplomatic tensions as a secondary issue, and dismissed recent renewed street protests as a challenge to President Putin’s rule. The ruble has firmed with rising oil prices, and the next budget will be disciplined based on a $40/barrel level. Tax shifts increasing VAT and reducing the payroll levy to tackle informality are in the works, and with good inflation and currency readings the central bank is in gradual rate reduction mode as supervisors continue to clean up the banking system. The deputy governor continues to win international praise for her technocratic deft touch, and was featured on a flagship “emerging market resilience” panel at the Fund meetings amid shaky geopolitics.

Merger Fever’s Testy Temperature Reading
2017 May 5 by admin

Posted in: General Emerging Markets
The latest edition of auditing and consulting firm Ernst and Young’s global capital confidence barometer, surveying thousands of senior executives in forty countries across fifteen industries, was upbeat on global economy and M&A prospects despite geopolitical jitters. It found that digital and supply chain evolution, aided by private equity again on the hunt, continue to propel deals. The worldwide rise in purchasing manager indices has translated into “stretched” earnings expectations that drive buying interest beyond internal growth. Short-term credit and securities markets are stable and improving to support higher valuations, although currency and commodity volatility lingers, according to the poll. Policy uncertainty by geography—US, EU and China—and issues including cyber war, trade protectionism and immigration affect the business model but Eurozone breakup and Chinese debt crisis are low-risk probabilities. Technology disruption may be the leading factor in strategy and tactics, with traditional complications like tax rates and government intervention losing sway. It has resulted in global outsourcing of information and finance functions so companies focus on “core competence,” itself a moving target with increased automation and innovation. Acquisition pace may not return to 2015’s record and will spike this year but not overheat, with over half of respondents on the trail. They are following customers and trying to retain competitive edge, and also looking to simpler relationships like alliances and joint ventures. Methods range from full asset purchase to investment through corporate venture capital units, and high-profile bids will attract scrutiny from activist shareholders. In the US and Europe sentiment is split as the business-friendly Trump administration has triggered optimism, while UK-EU negotiations over Brexit prompt a wait and see stance. China is the number two M&A destination, and this year’s trend toward domestic combinations and inward allocation is opposite 2016’s. State enterprise consolidation in excess capacity sectors like aluminum and steel, along with consumer play shifts in the economic model, will be major themes, the study believes. Brazil and India are also in the top ten countries, and autos, energy, mining and telecoms are the main categories on the radar.

Brazil’s FDI is on solid course as portfolio inflows lift stocks and bonds and chase a raft of initial public offerings such as airline Azul after a long pause. Recession is over and inflation is heading toward 5 percent as the central bank may slide the benchmark rate to single digits. According to regulators banks are in decent shape to tackle corporate bad loan damage, while consumer borrowing appetite is frozen as reflected in flat to negative retail sales. The interim government has proposed aggressive pension reform to accompany long-term spending restraint, but Congress may dilute the package to modest changes phased in over time extending fiscal deficit positions. In the House 60 percent of lawmakers must approve before the bill goes to the Senate, and party discipline has fractured with President Temer’s popularity at a nadir under the weight of overlapping scandals. Top officials at the IMF-World Bank spring meetings assured investors that this social security overhaul attempt would not meet the fate of the previous two decades ago which failed by one vote, but political drama could again doom it if early presidential elections are called due to resignation or popular demand which in limited quarters has repositioned disgraced former President Lula on the stage.

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Refugee Compacts’ Salient Solution Crush
2017 April 28 by admin

Posted in: MENA
A year-long joint global displacement study group by the Center for Global Development and International Rescue Committee cast the issue as a “protracted crisis” and lauded the new aid compact approach with host countries, while urging comprehensive revamp of supporting economic data and policies. Low and middle-income economies host 90 percent of the 20 million refugees fleeing conflict, who are away on average a decade. Only 25 percent are in camps, and humanitarian and development funding and tools have not matched the duration and severity in a “fractured system. ” In 2016 governments, bilateral and multilateral agencies and civil society and private sector representatives met at consecutive conferences to channel billions of dollars to Jordan and Lebanon in initial compact pilots, with a separate pledging session for Syria and the region in London and launch of a concessional loan facility led by the World Bank, allocating $700 million to date, with an associated $2 billion poor country refugee influx window. These pacts work with the UN Commission and other performance based deals kike the EU’s EUR 3 billion to Turkey for Syrian repatriation from Greece and select onward resettlement. Education and job creation have been the main goals and the track record is early but standardized methods and outcome measurement are lacking.

The model of a public-private sector implementation board combining political and technical expertise, as adopted for the US Millennium Challenge anti-poverty program, is absent and impedes shared analysis and planning and rapid negotiation and disbursement timeframes can frustrate lasting results. Social service provision must take into account their scarcity for the existing local population, which typically also has steep joblessness. Refugees are often pushed to the labor market “shadows” and children denied school entry. In Lebanon classes are run in shift for citizens and newcomers, with quality suffering for both amid overcrowding. Jordan committed to issuing tens of thousands of migrant work permits in exchange for World Bank cash and EU duty free import access, but the number has not been reached and only 5 percent are to women. The process is bureaucratic and business startup is also “difficult” with minimum local partner and capital criteria, according to the report. The “right actors” have not been at the table, with limited local non-government input and private sector mobilization at home and abroad. They could be instrumental in putting rigorous assessment and procedure in place and creating an inclusive stakeholder mechanism. Basic information gaps endure across the board, from refugee numbers to job and school enrollment, and cost and impact evidence of integration steps is scant and far from the authors’ ideal of an umbrella policy index. The private sector can inject knowhow, resources and innovation, but collective action like the Partnership for Refugees started under the Obama administration is nascent, with no cross-border coordination capacity. Business and financial firms are equipped to take long-term risk and crisis fundraising could extend beyond philanthropy to commercial sources. Donors could join in sponsoring ventures such as practiced by USAID’s ideas lab. Skills training and infrastructure building are two areas of competitive advantage where compacts could better deliver on promise with enlarged vision scrapping the humanitarian-development divide, the two study backers argue.



Bank Capital’s Stealth Stressful Stretch
2017 April 28 by admin

Posted in: Global Banking
The IMF’s Spring Meeting Global Financial Stability Report departed from previous warnings and hailed emerging market “resilience” with higher growth and commodity prices, and lower credit expansion and corporate leverage, but pinpointed bank capital strains in China and elsewhere despite the positive general shift. It also challenged current optimism about the “benign” rate normalization path in advanced economies, especially in the US, which could stoke asset class risks and volatility and capital outflows concentrated in local bond markets with large foreign investment and frontier destinations with thin reserve and policy buffers. Protectionism either by default or design would hit export revenues and balance sheets and lenders to that sector. Fund flow herd behavior has traditionally come from retail participants, but institutions have pared exposure in recent quarters and big multi-strategy pools unwinding positions can have outsize effects. Last year one firm divested almost 15 percent of a single country’s sovereign bonds in a reallocation, according to the study. Rising costs will add $135 billion in nonfinancial debt, and BRIC borrowers could be most vulnerable. Manufacturing exports as a share of GDP are steep across the universe range including Mexico, Malaysia and Thailand and equity markets have underperformed relative to benchmarks with cross-border trade barrier threats and rethinking of bilateral and multilateral agreements. With reversal metal and oil prices could likewise sink again after recovery the past year and layer another 1 percent onto the company borrowing total. A 300 bank sample shows “comfortable” Tier I capital, with the amount outside China up 20 percent since 2014, but asset quality doubts persist Brazil,. India and Russia have increased bad loans and reduced profits and 40 percent of the cross-section has poor loss coverage. Around $120 billion in further provisions is needed, equal to 5 percent of capital and cutting the Tier I ratio below 10 percent for one-third of the banks, while stronger systems like Colombia and Indonesia would be spared. Foreign exchange risk is another element regulators should closely monitor, and they should offer hedging tools if commercial alternatives are not readily available, the Fund suggests. China is a more urgent case where many mid-tier institutions overly rely on wholesale lines and have asset-liability mismatches, and recent state bank repo operations to inject liquidity may offer only temporary calm.

China’s massive infrastructure programs are feeling the pinch and the World Bank estimates that spending must double over the coming decades to accommodate the 9. 5 billion world population in 2050. The respective shares of multilateral development agencies and private partners, at $75 billion and $150 billion, already trail the annual $1. 5 trillion required, and OECD member mutual, pension and insurance funds, with $70 trillion under control should join the effort in light of lagging returns in other categories. The current developing economy pipeline is estimated at $1 trillion, focused on Asia, Europe and Latin America. , and portfolio allocation should be boosted by an infrastructure bond index under creation at fund researcher Morningstar. The Bank has an array of dedicated project and policy facilities and has linked with the G-20’s global platform created when Australia was chair in a strategy to double guarantees by end-decade. The IFC has a private co-lending arrangement and the new IDA $2. 5 billion low-income window has blended and currency pools for better scaling up to the crushing task, according to executives in charge of internal rebuilding.



The Treasury Department’s Maiden Manipulation Artifice
2017 April 22 by admin

Posted in: Currency Markets
The Trump Treasury Department released its first review of major economy foreign exchange policies after a bilateral summit with China and before the IMF spring meeting, with no Asian partner called a manipulator while Latin America was dropped from coverage altogether. It followed new criteria from 2015 legislation concentrating analysis on countries with at least a $20 billion trade surplus, a current account one at minimum 3 percent of GDP, and annual currency unilateral intervention of 2 percent of output. No country met all three criteria and the report noted reduced interference the past two years, but questioned whether the shift was just a temporary response to capital outflow trends. It reiterated the claim during the campaign that the US has been “unfairly disadvantaged” by artificial distortions and placed China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan and Germany and Switzerland on respective regional monitoring lists. The US current account gap was shaved to 2. 5 percent of GDP in the second half of 2016, but the net international investment position slumped to an $8 trillion deficit. The world economy expanded 3 percent, the slowest rate in a decade, and global demand distribution remains “highly imbalanced. ” Fiscal and monetary policy can correct the tilt but structural reforms, particularly greater competitive access for private versus state-owned firms should be a priority. Chinese capital flight last year was due to local rather than foreign investor exit, including outward direct allocation by big government companies, but new limits have diminished the pace. Outside China net emerging market inflows continued into the last quarter, but currency performance was mixed, with a 15 percent Mexican peso depreciation, while the Taiwan dollar and India rupee were up almost 5 percent against the dollar. The first quarter of this year solidified appreciation tendencies, but global reserves fell marginally to $11 trillion at end-2016 as China and big oil exporters sold off holdings. The figures cannot distinguish between valuation adjustments and interventions, and future reporting and statistical efforts should redress the discrepancy, Treasury urges.

China’s large scale one-way anti-appreciation moves lasted a decade and harmed American workers and business, but from mid-2015 to February 2017 Beijing sold an estimated $800 billion to resist opposite depreciation direction. The authorities still must improve communications and transparency and open further to US goods and services while boosting domestic consumption, the analysis warns. During his recent Florida visit President Xi pledged further banking and securities industry liberalization, but observers pointed out the same commitment from Obama administration economic dialogues yet to permit rule-based majority foreign ownership. Korea too continues to run an outsize current account surplus, and the IMF believes the won is undervalued. Intervention in the spot and forward markets was $6. 5 billion or 0. 5 percent of GDP, reserves are triple short-term external debt and operations should only occur in “exceptional circumstances. ” Taiwan has a pegged exchange rate and its dollar jumped 7 percent versus the greenback in the first quarter. Foreign currency purchases in 2016 were $1 billion/month, and outside experts put undervaluation at 25 percent. It is not an IMF member so does not publish the same reserve data as all other big Asian emerging economies to potentially flag irregularities.

Egypt’s Chiseled Church Chastening
2017 April 22 by admin

Posted in: MENA
Egyptian shares with a slight first quarter bump on the MSCI index recoiled after a spate of Coptic Church holiday bombings claimed by ISIS, as President Al-Sissi fresh from a White House meeting with President Trump who praised his toughness, declared a state of emergency granting security forces more discretionary detention power. The President came to Washington seeking US designation of the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist group, as counterparts agreed to expand economic and military cooperation. He freed jailed predecessor Mubarak around the time of the trip, and a $4 billion Eurobond was successfully placed as foreign investors also tiptoe back into local debt lured by tax-free double digit yields. Since signature of the $12 billion IMF loan late last year reserves are up $7 billion to $27 billion, the highest since the Arab Spring. The World Bank and African Development Bank have released tranches as part of the package, but remittances rose 10 percent in the last quarter after an extended fall as workers finally repatriated cash with the official pound float and the dollar rate settled at 16-17. With 50 percent depreciation tourism recovered overtaking safety qualms, and non-petroleum exports jumped 25 percent in January. Despite headline 3 percent GDP growth, the PMI manufacturing gauge continues to contract, and consumers have been whacked by subsidy cuts and 30 percent inflation. The fiscal deficit spurted to 12 percent of output and unemployment is reported at the same figure although stricter estimates near double it. Dollar shortages persist but officials on the bond road show diverted concern by pointing out imminent offshore gas production from a large field. However with the human rights crackdown Western donors will again come under pressure from advocacy groups to withhold promised aid, repeating the pattern from the military coup against President Morsi in the initial post-Mubarak transition.

Algeria, with hydrocarbons over 95 percent of the economy, had earlier widespread civil unrest and terrorism and has struggled to diversify and reduce state control without official outside help. It recently embarked on a high-profile US investment campaign emphasizing modest fiscal, commercial law and currency adjustments as 4 percent inflation may outpace growth. The central bank predicts dinar stability against the dollar at around 110, and greater competitive scope for the half dozen private banks against dominant government lenders, although the Development Bank will continue to concentrate 90 percent of the portfolio toward small business.