No More Learning

After much waver-
ing, Napoleon III then exercised for some years
a guardianship over the Sublime Porte. After his
fall, the Marquis de Vogiie tried yet again to carry
on a Catholic policy at Pera, and found his master
in Prince Bismarck. Since then France has taken
little part in the great diplomatic struggle on the
Bosphorus. We all know what hope slumbers in
every Frenchman's deepest heart, but we also
know that France does not desire the war of
revenge at the present moment. Marshal Mac-
Mahon admits that the reformation of the army
is not yet quite complete, Duke Decazes has given
many proofs of cautious moderation, but the
nation longs to enjoy yet a few years of economic
splendour, which, shaming their conqueror, they
have newly won by marvellous activity. For those
purposes which alone are valuable to the French,
for the conquest of Belgium or a piece of the left
bank of the Rhine, the English fleet can be of little
use to them ; without Austria or Russia as an ally
they do not wish to venture upon the war of re-
venge. France is, besides, a Mediterranean Power,
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? Turkey and the Great Nations 69
and cannot desire the excessive growth of English
influence in the south-east. This latter considera-
tion is also decisive of Italy's attitude. The
reasons which once led Count Cavour into the war
against Russia have long vanished with the
unification of Italy. The young kingdom is on
good terms with the three Eastern Powers, and
will take care not to give up that assured position
for the love of a few English pessimists.
So long as the Alliance of the three Emperors
lasts, there is nothing to fear as to European
peace, and the prospects of the Alliance are still,
as ever, without a shadow. It is of course intelli-
gible that Vienna is visited by a confusion of the
most diverse endeavours ; all the numberless contra-
dictions of parties and races which are embraced
in the Imperial State are being stirred up by the
Eastern Question. The Poles, and a portion of
the Ultramontanes with them, desire war with
Russia; Dictator Langiewicz is intriguing in Con-
stantinople, and Cardinal Ledochowsky is airing
racial hatred at the Holy Seat. In the same
direction are the operations of those Old Conser-
vatives, who even now preach the ancient Metter-
nich maxim that Austria and the Porte are united
in solidarity. But a dense mass of moderate
German Liberals are blowing the same horn;
these people think they are showing their freedom
of thought by the well-known and brilliant remarks
about free England and the barbarians of the
East. On the other hand, at least four parties
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? ^o Turkey and the Great Nations
demand the support of the rebellion and conquests
to the south of the Danube. The Czechs, Serbs,
and Croatians wish to aid their brethren in the
South; an ambitious military party demands,
amid the applause of zealous Great-Austrians, a
consolation prize for the losses of recent years;
a fraction of the Ultramontanes wishes to conquer
Slav country in order to drive the hated Magyars
into a corner; finally, there are imfortunately also
a few blinded German enthusiasts who would like
to enlarge the Imperial State in the East, so that
its western half might fall to the German Empire.
Those, however, who, like us Germans in the
outer Empire, earnestly desire the maintenance of
the Austrian Monarchy and its dual constitution,
must perceive also that Austria to-day neither
can nor may annex anything in Turkey. There is
only conquest yonder in the south-east which
would in itself be advantageous to the Danubian
Empire: Rumania. That precious conquest was
once attainable in Prince Eugene's great days; it
might perhaps even have been achieved by a bold
policy during the Crimean War; to-day it is quite
impossible, owing to the unanimous refusal of
the newly-unified Rumanian people, which can
always lean on Russia for support. The great
hour has unfortunately passed, as once passed the
right moment for the Germanizing of Bohemia,
and so many other alluring opportunities in
Austrian history. The estuary of the Danube
is now as unattainable for Austria as the delta
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? Turkey and the Great Nations 71
of the Rhine for Germany. Any other section of
the Tiirkish dominion, however, would be a
*' Greek gift" for modern Austria. The bound-
aries of the Monarchy towards the south-east
are, even though inconvenient, yet tenable, and
by no means so unnatural as they appear on a
map. The Dalmatian coast looks towards the
West, has belonged for thousands of years to the
Adriatic- Italian world, and has hardly any inter-
course with the pathless mountain-chain of the
back-blocks. The annexation of Bosnia would
strengthen the centrifugal Slavic elements, and
expose the Empire to the danger of dismember-
ment; the crude masses could not be allowed
to take any part either in the Vienna or the
Pesth Reichstag, and the fantastic experiment of
a triad-policy would have to be tried, although
it has been quite sufficiently shown how difficult
it is to maintain even dualism after ten years*
experience.
The task is imposed upon us Germans to uphold
the Three Emperors' Alliance by conciliation and
mediation. We once honestly tried to gain a
respite for the life of the Turkish Empire; the
only reform in Turkey which has been something
of a success, the rebuilding of the army, is the work
of Prussian officers. Yet we cannot shut our eyes
to her impending doom. We find no reason to
accelerate the catastrophe at all. A nation
which has just suffered so severely for its unity
may well say without selfishness: Non omnia
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? ^2 Turkey and the Great Nations
possumus omnes; it is not for us, but for the
South Slavs, to set the ball rolling. But we, too,
dare not remain inactive, and, least of all, console
ourselves with the dull, pessimistic comfort that
the Czar's Empire may, in God's name, grow till it
bursts. We want lasting, endurable conditions in
the Peninsula, which may pacify that part of the
world, and so we want no new foreign domination,
certainly no annexations, either Austrian or
Russian. All good Germans are united in this
resolution, because what may in any way en-
danger Austria's existence, is a blow at our own
Empire.
Our Government has first pledged itself to
guarantee Count Andrassy's Reform proposals.
There is no change in them, even though, owing
to the new Sultan on the Bosphorus, the Three
Emperors' Alliance has been obliged to grant a
longer respite to the new Government. The
Andrassy programme touches with a sure hand
the rawest spots in the Rayah's circumstances.
Germany's prestige is also concerned that the
Porte may not again, as in the case of so many
other proposals, get rid of these well-considered
and moderate ones with empty phrases. If she
does this, or if she proves incapable of fulfilling
her promises, the three Eastern Powers, if they do
not wish to seem ludicrous to the whole world, can
hardly avoid going further and demanding serious
pledges for the abolition of an anarchic state of
affairs which is gradually becoming intolerable to
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? Turkey and the Great Nations 73
all her neighbours, and particularly to Austria.
That they can thus act with an honourable
unanimity seems almost certain ; the quiet hope of
the French, of EngHsh Russophobes, and of the
Ultramontanes for the break-up of the Three
Emperors' Alliance has poor prospects so long as
the Republic exists in France and the Magyars
guide Austria's foreign policy.
Only a seer could determine beforehand the
course of events during the next months. The
growing agitation in Servia, and the energetic
preparations in the Mediterranean, point indeed
to serious events. On the other hand, all the
Powers, especially Russia, are filled with a lively
desire for peace; the Czar's Empire shrinks from
the incalculable disorders which an outburst of
Mohammedan fanaticism threatens to create
everywhere in Asia; the Powers' profound mutual
suspicion disables each force by an opposing force
yonder in the East. It therefore seems possible
that Turkish affairs will still, for a time, drag along
sluggishly and deplorably, and highly probable
that the fate of the capital will not be decided in the
nearest future, because this question is in fact
regarded by all the Powers as not yet ripe for
settlement. We have had very unpleasant experi-
ences of England's friendship since the Seven
Years' War; Russian policy would have to commit
unheard-of follies for Germany to think of drop-
ping the hand of her tried friend in order to throw
herself into the arms of a faithless ally, dominated
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? 74 Turkey and the Great Nations
by obsolete opinions. In the Eastern Question
Russia needs us more than we her; therefore
an astute, strong German policy has nothing to
fear from the Russian alliance.
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? GERMANY AND THE ORIENTAL
QUESTION
BERLIN,
J 5th Dec, i8y6,
"HP HAT changed aspect" of Oriental complica-
1 tions, about which Prince Bismarck did not
wish to pronounce an opinion in the Imperial Diet,
seems to all appearances to be arising very rapidly.
The mobilization of the Army of the South is com-
pleted, the Turkish army is ready to hold the line of
the Danube, and perhaps to cross it. Optimists
still place reliance upon the incontestable per-
sonal love for peace of Czar Alexander, or upon
the arts of mediation of the European Conference ;
and, truly, in the chaos of the Oriental Question
the imexpected has often become possible. But
probability far rather presages the near outbreak
of war. Russia cannot abandon the demand for
serious reforms in favour of the Rayah people
without a humiliation which a healthy State
accepts only from the sword of the victor. The
Porte will not grant those reforms, as, after all the
horrors of the past summer, they can only be
carried through under the protection of Christian
75
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? 76 Germany and the East
weapons. It is impossible that the God-inspired
Bashi-bazoiik, after having ripped open the Bul-
garian mother and sold her children as slaves,
should now of his own accord live with the survivors
of his victims as a peaceful citizen on the footing
of equal rights. But an occupation of the rebel-
lious provinces, be it through the Moscow "Gia-
our" or through another Christian Power, appears
an unbearable disgrace to the dignity of valiant
Islam, the last moral power of the Ottoman
State. The differences have become irreconcilable,
and, however much the West of Europe wishes for
peace, the mediation proposals of the Conference
can, after all that has happened, only delay the
inevitable catastrophe for a short time, and render
intolerable the paralysing tension which oppresses
that part of the world.
The worst of all political sins -- the hesitation
between wishing and not wishing to do a thing --
has come out in an ugly manner in every one of
the periodical explosions of the Oriental Question,
but never in worse form than last year. All
Powers immediately concerned in the heritage
of the "Sick Man" stood helplessly between the
appreciation of the fact that the present state of
affairs was impossible and the fear of the incalcu-
lable consequences of a firm decision. Compared
with the hesitation of the neighbouring Powers the
simple barbarity of Ottoman politics seems almost
worthy of respect. By the atrocities in Bulgaria,
as well as by the dismal proceedings which accom-
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? Germany and the East 77
panied the two changes of dynasty, the Porte has
only proved afresh that, in spite of the Peace of
Paris, she can never become a European Power.
She has carried on a pitiful war with a superiority
of excellent regular troops, yet she had the
worst in the fight with the brave little nation of
Montenegro, and defeated the Servian militia only
after a resistance of many months. On the whole,
however, she succeeded in maintaining her posses-
sions, and with prouder feelings, and greater con-
fidence than for a long time past, the Turks look
to-day upon the undefeated standard of the Half-
Moon. But once again, and not without success,
the old Turkish adage Vv^as applied to the Prankish
Courts: *'To hurry is the work of the devil, to
delay is the work of God ; " the well-known cheerful
promises of coming constitutional splendour for
the happy grande famille ottomane sufficed to
once more keep the Cabinets in suspense for a
time. It was a hand-to-mouth life, without the
slightest vestige of a fruitful statesmanlike thought.
The Porte, however, always knew what she
wanted. Not the same boast applies to the
attitude of the most closely-interested European
Powers. When defending the rights of the Ra-
yah the Russian Court did only what its historic
position demanded. Its original proposals were
just and temperate, and its firm adhesion to the
Triple AlHance proved that in Petersburg a lesson
had been learned from the experiences of the
Crimean War. But with a disturbance of the
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? 78 Germany and the East
general policy of the Great Powers, through the with-
drawal of England and the complications caused
by the change of Turkish dynasty, Russian diplo-
macy for a time lost its firm grip. Those who
hear the grass grow may, of course, presume that
the restless little Piedmont of the South Slavs,
which always was a thorn in the eye of the Russian
Cabinet, has intentionally been forced into war
for its own destruction. Far nearer the truth
is the assumption that two parties fought an
indecisive battle at the Court of St. Petersburg.
The Government shrank from war, yet did not
dare oppose the mighty Pan-Slavist movement
which swept the country; it warned the Serbs of
the outbreak, yet did not morally support it --
nay, even permitted, contrary to international
law, the massing of Russian officers and soldiers.
The temptation was truly very great; in face of
a wild popular effervescence an absolute despot
is often less powerful than a constitutional king,
who can rely upon an intelligent parliamentary
majority. How angry we Germans once were with
the Crown of Prussia when peace had been con-
cluded with Denmark, and subsequently, in
accordance with treaties, her officers were recalled
from the Schleswig-Holstein Army! But what-
ever may be said as an excuse, Russia's policy was
unworthy of a Great Power ; it resembled more the
art of evasion forced upon Count Cavour by the
weakness of his country than the conscious straight-
forwardness of Prussian policy during our battles
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? Germany and the East 79
for unity. Even in the circles of unbiassed people,
the concealed war in Servia has severely shaken
their confidence in Russia's honest intentions,
and it was lucky for the Russians themselves
that the Servian enterprise ended in failure.
Since then the Court at Petersburg resorted to
simpler and therefore more effective measures.
By its ultimatum the Turks were forced to immedi-
ately arrest their triumphal march. Thousands
of beheaded Servians lay on the battle-field around
Alexinatz; the whole country vibrated in terror
of Turkish arms; the more wonderful appeared to
the people the power of the White Czar, who by
one word called "halt" to the terrible foe. The
prestige of Russia amongst the Rayahs is to-day
firmer established than ever. For a time, the
Russian Crown seemed to disappear behind the
revolutionary powers of Pan-Slavism; now it
apparently makes efforts to expiate the fault it has
committed and to keep in check those elementary
forces. The emphatic declaration of Czar Alex-
ander that he did not wish for conquests is more
deserving of credence than the assurances of his
ancestress Catherine. After a glorious reign he
may well expect that the world places confidence
in his word, especially as he did not indulge in
vague wishes for peace, but frankly declared that
the necessity for war to secure the rights of the
Rayah might possibly arise. For the moment,
the labours of St. Petersburg diplomacy are di-
rected towards securing the assent of all Powers,
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? 8o Germany and the East
including England, to the reform proposals, and to
secure for Russian policy in case of war incontest-
able legal rights, so that Russia either should
appear as executor of European will, or could
not be accused of arbitrary action; and to all
appearances the old faithful ally of the Russians
-- the infatuated conceit of the Porte -- will grant
them at least the latter advantage. For, how-
ever mildly the Conference may decide, and it
may even abandon the idea of occupation, the
actual removal of Ottoman suzerainty in Bosnia
and Bulgaria is inevitable if the whole reform work
is not again to be mere jugglery, and the conceit
of the Mohammedans will not admit such imputa-
tions. So Russia, after many waverings and mis-
takes, has returned to a clear and logical policy;
and to-day it still appears to us laymen that two
utterly different efforts of Russian diplomacy
worked side by side. Pan-Slavism is beaten pro
tern, by the moderate policy of the Czar, but he
reserves to himself to again come forward with its
covetous wishes as soon as fortune of war favours
the Russian flag. Of English politics, however,
not the cleverest brain can say what its object
has really been during the whole course of proceed-
ings. The Tory party was very minutely in-
formed as to the hopeless situation of the Rayahs.
If, therefore, according to national superstition,
we considered the existence of Turkey a European
? -- or, better, a British -- necessity, it should not
have left the representation of South Slav interests
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? Germany and the East 8i
to the Russian Court; it should have exerted its
great influence on the Bosphorus in order to
enforce at the right time the adoption of vigorous
reforms. Instead, it tumbled from one contra-
diction into the other. Reluctantly it consented to
Count Andrassy's memorial, only to break away,
four months later, from the Berlin Convention,
which, after all, was simply supposed to carry on
the plans of the memorial. It never occurred to
the Tory party to come forward with a counter-
proposal. England's attitude was the final cause
of the Servian War, because, without evident
discord between the Great Powers, the Petersburg
Court could undoubtedly have kept in check the
Pan-Slavist agitation.
To posterity alone it will become apparent what
part the British Ambassador has played at both
dynasty changes at the Golden Horn; but it is
certain that confidence in England's friendship has
encouraged the Turks to carry on their frivolous
game with the Powers. As a champion of Allah,
Admiral Drummond was greeted in the Mosque
of Stamboul by the enthusiastic softas] the men
of war in the Bay of Besika gave encouragement
to the Porte to direct all their might against the
South Slavs. Meanwhile, a peculiarly vague
movement started amongst the British pubHc.
Here and there the conviction gained ground that
the strictly conservative Oriental policy of Old
England was played out; it was noticed with deep
regret that the fanaticism of Islam, under the pro-
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? 82 Germany and the East
tection of bigoted England, tortured its Christian
victims; added to which were the party hatred
of the Whigs, the reHgious zeal of High-Church
theologians, the philanthropic talk of weak-minded
individuals, and the ardent desire for peace of
those Manchester men who, already in the time of
Richard Cobden, favoured the good-natured view
that Constantinople as a Russian provincial town
would enjoy a considerable cotton importation,
and consequently unmixed happiness. Alarmed by
this wave of public opinion, the Cabinet, after
four months, again gave way, and in September
expressed its adherence to the principles of the An-
drassy memorial, which previously had been aban-
doned in May. Then, however, Benjamin Disraeli,
boasting and threatening, extolled the inexhaust-
ible expedients of Great Britain, and, as we are
credibly assured. Lord SaHsbury to-day makes
the most emphatic appeals to the stubbornness
of the Porte, whilst he, at the same time, in equally
decided manner declares himself opposed to the
occupation of Bulgaria, and thereby renders void
all his admonitions. The Porte believes that it
can count upon England's friendship under all
circumstances, and that is why she does not desire
an agreement with Russia. The diplomacy of
the Tory party reveals a type of complete help-
lessness; hence also their reluctance to convene
Parliament. Should, however, war break out in
the East it would soon become apparent that the
majority of the British public does not endorse the
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? Germany and the East 83
demobilization meetings of the Whigs. The na-
tion has not yet got over the experiences in the
Crimean War; it beHeves that it defends the East
Indies on the Bosphorus, and we might easily find
that England is following the bad example given in
Servia, and, by secretly supporting the Turkish
forces, commencing a hidden war against Russia.
Who can say where this may lead to? The fertile
mind of Benjamin Disraeli, however, apparently
thinks of yet another possibility: the faithful
friend of the Turks is ever ready to stick the key of
the Suez Canal in his pouch should the house
of the "Sick Man" collapse, and in this way would
strengthen for all time British supremacy in the
Mediterranean. The only thing that is clear in
this peculiar policy is that it is incalculable.
Nor, unfortunately, has Austria's Oriental policy
so far had fruitful results. True, the two leading
nations of the monarchy -- Germans and Magyars
-- have a presentiment that the Triple Alliance
alone can save the country from the dangers of the
Pan-Slavist propaganda; but intelligent judgment
is always being upset either by greedy desire for
conquests or by passionate outbursts of blind Slav
hatred. A great number of Vienna newspapers
play the sad part of Imperial Turkish Court
journals. When the Cisleithanian Parliament
discussed the Oriental Question, political dilettant-
ism celebrated its Saturnalia. A whole pattern-
card of invertebrate plans was displayed, and Mr.
Giskra, Ofenheim's patron, gave proof of his dar-
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? S4 Germany and the East
ing genius by sweetly suggesting putting up the
yellow-black boundary posts on the coast of the
-^gean Sea. An outspoken popular opinion exists
only in one German race of the Monarchy, i. e. ,
among the Transylvania Saxons. These, the best
German Austrians, who at the same time are the
most faithful adherents to the country as a whole,
are at heart completely on the side of the Rayah
people, because they see in advance that the
creation of small South Slav States on Hungary's
boundaries would tame the coarse insolence of
the Magyar Chauvinists, and would compel the
Hungarian nobility to behave fairer than hitherto
towards their German and Slav citizens. Fanatics
of Magyardom, on the other hand, do the impos-
sible in the adoration of their Turkish cousins.
The Budapest youth hurl their rhetorical thunder-
bolts against the venomous pestilential breath of
the Muscovite Colossus, and the enlightened ad-
mirers of general public liberty pilgrimage to Ofen
to the grave of Guel-Baba, the holy father of the
Mohammedans. It is as if at any price they
wished to prove to us Europeans of the West that
the Magyars consider themselves Asiatics of the
North. In spite of blustering and threatening
from all directions, nobody has either the courage
or the real intention of overthrowing Count An-
drassy . That in the midst of all these complications
the Count has, at any rate, firmly maintained the
Triple Alliance is a fresh proof of his diplomatic
cleverness. But, owing to this confused pell-mell
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? Germany and the East 85
of opinions, the striking force of the Monarchy
is unmistakably being weakened; and should war
break out in the East, Austria cannot easily,
at least at the beginning, do more than main-
tain a useless neutraHty. If, amongst all the
Great Powers, Germany alone has unerringly
maintained a firm and dignified attitude, we owe
the advantage above all to our geographical situ-
ation. It is due to Prince Bismarck's fame that
he clearly recognizes the tasks devolving upon our
world-position, and that, uninfluenced by alluring
temptations, he makes no step beyond. Our new
Empire does not consider itself called upon to
constantly keep the world on the qui vive by rais-
ing new questions in the charlatanical fashion
of Napoleon. Germany aims at a real balance of
power, and does not even wish to play the part of
primus inter pares ^ but is ready to remain modestly
in the second line as long as her interests are not
immediately interfered with. The complaints of
the EngHsh and Turcophile Press regarding the
unbending stiffness of Herr von Werther only
prove that our Ambassador on the Bosphorus con-
scientiously fulfils his duty and quietly rejects the
lead which some people in some respects would so
much like to foist upon him.
The speech of the Imperial Chancellor said
nothing about the present state of affairs of
German politics which any impartial observer
might not have said himself; yet it freed the pre-
judiced and anxious masses from many a grievous
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? 86 Germany and the East
doubt, and even forced the outside world to
recognize the peaceful and moderate attitude of
the much-calumniated Empire. Its chief merit,
however, lay in the fact that it reminded shifty
public opinion of the great common duties of
Christianity. It is not -- as the Turcophiles
reproach us -- out of grateful devotion to Russia
that Germany aimed at the establishment of
orderly conditions in the Rayah land, but because
it is the duty of all Christian countries to espouse
the cause of their co-religionists. Another re-
proach on the part of Turk admirers the Chancellor
has not even thought it worth while referring to,
viz. , the assertion that fear of a Franco- Russian
Alliance should dictate the course of German
diplomacy. This alliance has now for two genera-
tions been the pet idea of all political visionaries
in France ; Lamartine named it le cri de la nature.
But the same thing happens with it as with the
famous race war between Slavs and Germans,
which has always been predicted by cocksure
prophets as an inevitable necessity and is yet never
realized. For the present all justification is lack-
ing for such radical shifting of power on the
Continent. It is extremely unlikely that Czar
Alexander would wantonly reject the hand of his
trusted German ally in order to combine with
Ultramontane and Republican France. The sober
heads of French diplomatists know very well that
all endeavours in this direction are but labour lost.
As long as the Court of St. Petersburg aspires
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? Germany and the East 87
only to securing the rights of the Rayah it may
count on Germany's friendship, even if it should
become necessary to take up arms. This implies
that our Empire cannot tolerate Russian territorial
conquests in the Balkan Peninsula. Russian
patriots believe they are very modest in their
wish to bring the estuaries of the Danube into
Russia's hands, and thus aboHsh the last clause
still remaining from the hated Peace of Paris.
But this modest wish is utterly unacceptable to
Germany. Austria has unfortunately irrevocably
lost the opportunity of taking possession of the
estuaries of her river; it however remains a ques-
tion of life and death for the Empire of the Danube
that its most important line of commimication
should not be impaired by another State superior
in power, and Germany is immediately concerned
in the existence of Austria. Rumania, however
unfinished she appears to-day, can play a happy
part in the peace of the world, for she forms a
barrier between Russia and the South Slav world.
Neither Austria nor Russia must consent to the
destruction of this young State. When Russia,
in peace time, advanced from Adrianople to the
Sulina she went beyond her natural sphere of
power; the removal of this usurpation was one of
the few real merits of the Paris Conventions, and,
fortunately, Germany possesses to-day a con-
stitutional right to prohibit the return of that
unnatural condition. As everybody knows, the
lower part of the Danube is under the suzerainty
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? 88 Germany and the East
of a European Commission, to which Germany
likewise sends a delegate; Russia cannot enlarge
her territory there without permission of the six
Powers, and that permission will never be granted.
Now if this insignificant extension of Russian
frontiers is incompatible with German interests, it
is self-evident that the higher aspirations of Pan-
Slavists would meet with decided opposition on
the part of our Empire. The famous expression,
Constantinople c'est V empire du monde, appears to
us practical Germans of course as a Napoleonic
phrase, but all the same the Bosphorus remains
a highly important strategic position. To sub-
jugate that natural heritage of the Greeks to the
Russian Empire would be tantamount to sub-
stituting a new foreign domination for the Turkish ;
it would be tantamount to transferring the centre
of gravity of Muscovite power from territories
where it has healthy natural roots, thus creating
morbid conditions which would be no less perni-
cious to Russia than to us. A free passage through
the Dardanelles is a just claim on the part of the
Russians, and Germany will surely not oppose it
if Russia has the strength to defend it with the
sword. Neither does the formation of a Bosnian
or Bulgarian State run counter to our interests,
and as the aversion of the Magyars and German
Austrians to the neighbourhood of South Slav
minor Powers merely arises from an uncertain
frame of mind, it will, in view of accomplished facts,
also be difficult in time to come to resist Austria's
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? Germany and the East 89
opposition. But it is the fundamental idea of
the Triple Alliance that great changes in the East
are not to be accomplished without the consent of
the Allies. The weakened and wearied Prussia
of the 'twenties once spoke the decisive word
at the Peace of Adrianople. Germany, now
powerful, can still less think of permitting the
Russians the sole regulation of Turkish affairs.
If the Russian Crown, with the silent consent of
the two other Imperial Powers, should start the
war, it will find out that its allies claim for them-
selves, and for the other European Powers, the
right of co-decision at the conclusion of peace.
The intimate ties which unite the Petersburg
Court with that of Berlin are a guarantee that
on the Neva, the limits which Germany's friend-
ship cannot exceed have been known for ever so
long.
The securing of rights for Oriental Christians,
whether by serious administrative reforms or by
the establishment of South Slav States without
disturbance of the peace in the West of Europe,
and without aggrandizement of the Russian Em-
pire -- these are the aims of German diplomacy,
and up to now the preservation of peace, at
least, has succeeded beyond all expectation. It
may rely upon the consent of the huge majority
of the German nation. Since the repugnant
spectacle of the Servian War, an alarming con-
fusion of ideas seems to be spreading in our Press ;
only the Government-inspired papers and a few
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? 90 Germany and the East
respectable Liberal organs in Berlin, in Suabia,
and the towns of the Hansa still preserve impartial
judgment. This complete ignorance of the Euro-
pean balance of power, which from olden times
was a special peculiarity of German Radicalism,
is again revealed in the senseless phraseology
of Berlin democratic journals; the Press of the
Ultramontanes preaches wild hatred against
schismatic Russia, the tamer of Catholic Poland,
and unfortunately many Liberal papers also chime
in this party-biassed chorus, as, for instance, the
Koelnische and the Augsburger Allgemeine, the two
papers most read abroad. Not to wish to forget
anything is a bad habit of the German mind which
seems closely allied with the highest power of our
nature, namely, our fate. Even as we of the Pro-
gressive party number a few members who live
on old recollections and ancient resentment, so
there is amongst our publicists many a well-
meaning man who in a totally changed situation of
the world adheres to the fear of Russia of 1854.
Luckily, however, the Press is not public opinion.
The German nation does not love the Slavs. It
also knows how intensely we are hated by a con-
siderable part of our Eastern neighbours, and
nevertheless it thinks sufficiently Hberally and
justly not to grudge the Slavs their good right to
form national States. It has made sufficient ac-
quaintance in its own struggles for unity with the
narrow-minded reactionary tendency of present-
day England, and no more allows itself to be
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? Germany and the East 91
deceived by stale panegyrics about British liberty ;
it understands very well that we should to-day
have had to fight a world war had the Empire
listened to the foolish councils of the Anglomanes.
No doubt is entertained any more as to the true
spirit of the German people since the brilliant
success of the Chancellor's speech; the impression
of those simple words was so powerful that not
even the member for "Meppen" dared contradict,
and even some Radical papers showed half-
hearted approval. Thus, supported by the will of
the nation, the German Crown can look forward
with some calmness to the next acts of the Oriental
drama. The temperate assurances of the Peters-
burg Court would -- such is the way of the world
-- mean little if Russia could expect to carry its
standards in quick triumphal march right before
the walls of Stamboul. Such an easy victory
of Russian arms is, however, by no means pro-
bable. It is true that long ago the catchword of
the "colossus with feet of clay" became a quite
exploded idea; the Czar's Empire commands a
mighty power whose efficiency has also increased
considerably; the railway net has within fifteen
years extended from 500 to over 7000 versts; the
bitter lessons of the last Oriental war have been
taken to heart, and the fortresses of the Balkans
no longer seem impregnable to modern artillery.
But the enormous obstacles which this dreary,
unhealthy country, poor in roads, has at all times
placed in the way of advancing armies are still
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? 92 Germany and the East
the same to-day. Turkey commands to-day the
Pontus, which was closed to her in 1828, and a
brave, well- trained army, which will gladly fight
for the Holy Islam cause against her old sworn
enemy. The issue of the campaign seems very
uncertain, and the Courts at Vienna and Berlin
will hardly have the opportunity to speak a
momentous word at the right moment should the
enthusiasm of victory arouse the arrogance of
Pan- Slavism.
Every war baffles foresight. It is of course con-
ceivable that the moral anguish of "English com-
mercial policy" will, after all, delight the world
with a fresh " Opium War, " and that the Moham-
medan cavalry of the Empress of India, accom-
panied by the blessings of pious clergymen, will
fight for the Christian Half-Moon. For the time
being, however, it looks as if the fateful question
of Oriental politics, the future of Constantinople,
is not to be decided this time. The Turkish War is
for Russia an enormous risk. No European knows
what is going on in the minds of the 8,000,000
Mohammedan subjects of the White Czar, how
much the word of the Sheik Islam and the prestige
of the Caliph are still worth amongst those masses,
and what consequences an explosion of the fanatic-
ism of Allah's warriors may have for Russia
as well as for England's East Indian dominions.
Even as the Crimean War brought about a decisive
social upheaval in Russia, a long new Oriental
War may easily incite the highly dangerous powers
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? Germany and the East 93
of Radical Nihilism fermenting in the half-trained
Muscovite mind to a savage struggle -- not to men-
tion the uneducated Polish nobility. Many are
the sore spots of the Czar's Empire. The Em-
peror's as yet incomplete great work of reform
needs peace, and the balance in the State Budget
which is hardly re-established, would infallibly
be lost in a long war. As a matter of fact, the
moderate extent of Russian war preparations does
not point to the intention of dealing a blow at the
heart of Ottoman Power. Perhaps the country
is at present not able to use more than 200,000
men for warfare abroad, and, anyhow, it will have
to be admitted in St. Petersburg that such an
army has to-day little chance to reach the town
of the Comneni from the Pruth.
Unready and unripe conditions meet us every-
where in the lands of the Mediterranean. The
Mediterranean world is aiHng from two great
evils: the naval supremacy of England and the
irretrievable rottenness of the Ottoman Empire.
But the young Powers which can oust these
decrepit Powers are nevertheless in being. The
Greek people, who by origin and position seem
called upon to take the best part of the legacy of
the "Sick Man," have badly neglected their war
preparations. If the Rumanians may expect, with
some justification, to gain complete independence
through the Russian Alliance, Greece in the best of
cases may only expect to move her frontiers a
little farther towards the North. Still worse
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