No More Learning

China “A” shares jumping almost 50% as they prepare for a larger weighting were the main turnaround story and driver, followed closely by South Korea’s 45% shaking off the North’s bellicosity to herald the new administration’s chaebol and consumer debt cleanup. India was next at 35%, ahead of ASEAN markets where Thailand led (+30%) and Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines finished in the 20-25% range.

Among frontier exchanges Vietnam’s 60% surge was more than double the index, while Sri Lanka was flat and Bangladesh rose 15%. The universal upswing was supported by headline GDP growth and earnings exceeding expectations, and positive trade and capital flows overcoming gloom from US and Western government protectionist sentiment and incremental monetary tightening. However on entering 2018 banking and foreign investment clashes in regional linchpin China again weighed on the outlook, while fund managers positioning for more selective returns began to dissect neighbors’ underlying economic and financial system diversification and overhaul in view of political and practical limitations.

China’s December official manufacturing PMI was over 51, but masked a meager 5% rise in private fixed asset investment, a one-year low. Both the local and offshore renimbi were up 7% against the dollar in 2017, but the foreign exchange body SAFE started the new year with stricter individual bank card holder caps on domestic and overseas dollar withdrawals, with the latter set at $15,000 annually. The National Development and Reform Commission in turn issued a directive mandating on-line registration of all cross-border deals above $300 million, and requiring approval for “sensitive” media and defense-related transactions regardless of size. The capital exit crackdown was coupled with foreign investor overtures, including temporary tax exemption for “favored” sector allocations such as in mining and technology in response to President Trump’s global corporate tax cut. The Commerce Ministry promised to speed financial services opening after a bilateral summit agreement , but the banking regulator still will not allow international ownership of domestic units over 20% for a single shareholder and 25% generally. Washington signaled its disappointment with access by refusing the proposed Ant Financial takeover of MoneyGram on reciprocity and national security grounds, as the Treasury Department’s CFIUS panel flagged account piracy and cyber-espionage potential.

The Central Economic Work Conference met to endorse the “Xi-nomics” mix of progress and stability and the medium term 6. 3% growth target, as state-owned forms announced double-digit profit increases for the year. However the private sector China Beige Book pointed to retail industry revenue and cash-flow weakness which will delay “old economy” displacement, especially as commodity sector companies such as steel once more ramp up capacity and production contradicting previous pledges. Central bank head Zhou in his message vowed to maintain prudent monetary policy, as big state lenders were poised to enjoy an interest windfall from a 2% available reserve requirement cut around the Lunar New Year, which will not apply to smaller competitors whose shares plunged. The Finance Ministry offered its own mixed signals in describing the “illusion” of Beijing continuing to absorb local government debt, which reached $2. 5 trillion in November, as over half of current bond issues roll over old obligations under the existing program.

Korea’s 10% currency appreciation against the dollar topped the region, and it was the only country to raise interest rates to try to slow accumulation of personal debt now the highest in the OECD. India reprised 6. 5% growth in the last quarter but worse 5% inflation came with it, and Prime Minister Modi’s ruling coalition lost ground in his home state of Gujarat and now faces a dedicated opposition Congress Party with Rahul Gandhi officially elected leader. In ASEAN Indonesia moves into 2018 split between prominent infrastructure building forays abroad, with state company issues of rupiah-denominated “Komodo bonds,” and religious and anti-corruption infighting at home, with President Jokowi’s key ally the parliamentary speaker facing graft charges. Vietnam managed successful IPOs, most recently of a popular brewery, but has struggled with corporate debt placement. It may soon tap the Asian Development Bank for help in a snapshot of Emerging Asia’s uneven financial market path despite 2017’s linear rally.







Mongolia’s Daring Debt Dash
2018 January 15 by admin

Posted in: Asia
Mongolia was lauded for more “durable than anticipated” 3% GDP growth in 2017 in December’s first review of its $400 million IMF program, following an $800 million 5-year external bond return in October where the 5. 5% yield was half the previous peak. Since the May rescue commodity exports have picked up to China in particular with mine closures there and its ban on North Korea coal imports, and boosted budget revenue in local currency terms with the weaker exchange rate against the dollar. “Investor confidence recovery” with the successful international issuance will boost the balance of payments and reserves, and fully cover 2018 maturities and refinance more expensive domestic debt.

However both the Fund and frontier market fund managers continue to be wary as political and banking sector complications dilute the upbeat narrative. The new government elected in July lost a confidence vote ousting the Prime Minister, who was then replaced by his deputy while the Fund’s health check was delayed. Bank credit growth is still at a runaway 20% annual pace, with large foreign exchange exposure and 7. 5% bad loans pending the results of an overall asset quality audit by the central bank. Despite headline economic strides, on structural reform the IMF report assigned a “mixed” score, as regional peers Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan not under the lender’s thumb likewise have rebounded from crisis but remain ambivalent near-term bond bets.

Mongolia’s coal, copper and gold price jump from Chinese demand stoked 5% first half GDP growth, but construction has been negative for four years with excess real estate inventory. The windfall produced a budget surplus through September, but scheduled social and civil servant handouts will result in a deficit, as the 2018 blueprint adopted by parliament could send the overall gap close to 10% of GDP, according to President Khaltmaa Battulga, who vetoed it as against the Fund arrangement. Growth is slated at 4. 2% amid introduction of a progressive income tax, but the President lambasted “inefficient investment projects” pushed by the opposition People’s Party which holds 65 of the 75 seats. A fiscal stability law envisions end-decade balance, but the IMF warns that the government wage bill compromises the target and threatens medium-term sustainability with public debt already at 85% of output.

Inflation was over 8% in October, and monetary policy has reversed course toward easing with a 100 basis point benchmark rate drop to 11%. The Fund urged the central bank to go slowly on cuts as the recent reserve buildup to $2. 5 billion on a stable tugrik may not last. The Bank of Mongolia has regularly dipped into the stash for intervention, even though its currency powers are murky and shared with the Finance Ministry. An updated organic law is to clarify the Bank’s independence and regulatory authority more broadly, but in the meantime its hands are full with the asset quality exercise conducted with accountants Price Waterhouse Coopers. It will screen bank business plans and apply stress tests, with capital holes to be remedied by the end of next year when deposit insurance is due to start. Among outstanding challenges the financial sector agenda is “most important” and funding decisions should not tilt to favored shareholders or jeopardize the public sector balance sheet, the Fund evaluation concluded.

Azerbaijan came in for separate caution under a December Article IV survey with stagflation ending as the hydrocarbon and service industries revive, but banking sector restructuring “ still incomplete. ” Inflation will be near 15% in 2017 after exchange rate depreciation, and increased fiscal spending should be reined in by clear rules before 2019, it recommended. Privatization has drawn foreign investor interest in real estate, and external debt remains minimal at under 20 % of GDP. Fitch Ratings expects positive growth in 2018 muddied by “continued bank asset quality pressure” despite the bad loan cleanup at IBA. The rater was also skeptical about the Halyk-Kazkommertsbank consolidation as the biggest government-owned lender in Kazakhstan following the initial stage of operations merger in December. Foreign exchange positions may deteriorate as local depositor tenge sentiment continues to swing as measured by dollarization levels, and international bonds were shaken by a New York court ruling freezing central bank reserves in an investor dispute while the overall system is in knots.



GDP Bonds’ Simpler Structure Sanctification
2018 January 15 by admin

Posted in: General Emerging Markets
For the past year official and private sector representatives, acting under the G-20’s original direction, have organized informal working groups and events around possible introduction of GDP growth-linked bonds. The idea first gained notice in the aftermath of the 1990s Asian financial crisis, and more recently for Greece, as an automatic stabilizer with countercyclical risk-sharing when recession or natural disaster hit that can also provide upside in boom times. Argentina and Ukraine followed early post-Brady plan restructurings in offering warrants that pay a premium when growth is above 3 percent, but full-fledged instruments have yet to be adopted in standard issuance and workouts despite concerted pushes from the IMF, Institute for International Finance, and other bodies.

Since the middle of 2016, the Fund has published papers on “state-contingent” debt and the Bank of England and International Capital Markets Association in London have taken the lead on global emerging market investor outreach which resulted in a model term sheet. It indexes coupons and amortization to nominal GDP, has both foreign and local currency options, and would be governed under international law with creditors ranking equally. The framework also contains complex provisions around collective action clauses and statistical calculation which muddy legal and practical understanding. An easier approach would be to incorporate the concept into smaller deals, such as the recent frontier sovereign wave in Africa and elsewhere, to build a credible track record where any dispute from the limited buyer base and transaction size could be handled by independent experts.

The IMF’s May review examined a range of bond alternatives adjusted for economic indicators or weather events and found that other tools can “preserve space” in difficult periods such as international reserve accumulation, fiscal rules, commercial insurance, and central bank swap lines. However, well-designed GDP-formula bonds are more accessible and also promote concrete securities diversification and the more abstract “global safety net,” in the Fund’s view. Its simulations showed that one-fifth of the debt stock in this form would increase emerging economy limits on average 10 percent before debt reached dangerous levels. Real money long-term managers at big institutions are the logical buyers, as they have wider fiduciary scope to balance country welfare with asset returns, the paper argued. However pilot efforts will still demand a novelty premium with liquidity and performance doubts, which could be magnified by data frequency and reporting gaps as in Argentina’s notorious past and in Venezuela’s present case, where related bad governance and economic policies would likely make upfront costs prohibitive. Professional debt agencies and not politicians should be in charge of these operations to plan beyond the next election cycle, and ratings agencies should participate at an early stage, the primer recommended.

Inflation-adjusted instruments offer a foundation and remain popular in Latin America among local and foreign investors, and commodity-tied value recovery rights featured in a dozen decades-old sovereign debt exchanges, but verification lags and other intricacies have impeded mainstream embrace. GDP-linkers will take time to develop benchmarks, and pricing is assumed to be at least 50 basis points over conventional offerings at the outset, according to the literature. Global pension funds controlling $40 trillion may be confined to hard-currency investment-grade exposure to further narrow the structure, while Islamic finance vehicles committed to risk-sharing could be a smooth fit. In discussions on the London term sheet, lawyers have criticized voting and cross-default clauses which seem to prevent aggregation and subordinate “plain vanilla” bonds to GDP-related ones. Analysts in turn are deeply suspicious of government data manipulation in the absence of an established separate mechanism for calculation and publication, and insist in the proposal on possible immediate redemption through a put option for protection.

Instead of mainly relying on these elaborate consultations often with acrimonious debate over motives and principles, GDP-linked bond advocates including the IMF, which has indicated possible balance sheet and technical support, should instead be open to ad hoc insertion in ongoing minor emerging market placements. Leading candidates were the past year’s restructurings in Belize, Mongolia, and Mozambique amid their other outstanding economic policy and statistical disclosure concerns. The three are serial defaulters with fates connected to natural resources, and creditors have been frustrated by continued negotiation and workout impasses which may be more readily overcome with specific data or event-triggered instruments. A standing group of mutually-agreed professional monitors could oversee adapted versions of the template, as innovation champions bypass lengthy deliberations to forge missing links.





Lebanon’s Retracted Resignation Roundabout
2018 January 8 by admin

Posted in: MENA
Lebanese bond prices stabilized and credit rating agencies delayed action after Prime Minister Hariri returned to his post a month after resigning at Saudi Arabia’s behest over his government coalition with Hezbollah, allied with Iran and Houthi rebels in the Yemen civil war accused of firing missiles at Riyadh. He reprised the “dissociation” stance in regional conflicts despite the alignment in effect the past six years in Syria, against stronger Hezbollah fighter support for the Assad regime now prevailing with Russian air power against remaining rebel pockets. Hariri has dual Saudi citizenship and was briefly detained before flying back to Beirut, raising suspicion he was caught in the anti-corruption net for dozens of royal princes held in the Ritz-Carlton hotel. At home his team had finally passed a budget and forged an agreement for parliamentary elections after a decade hiatus. Tourism increased and offshore oil projects were under negotiation since taking office a year ago, although economic growth stayed at 1. 5% under a 145% of GDP world-leading sovereign debt pile, which absorbs almost one-third of local bank assets as the major buyers. One-tenth the budget goes to debt service, and the central bank has resorted to fancy financial engineering to maintain allocation alongside the $7-8 billion in annual diaspora inflows. They are needed also to sustain over $40 billion in central bank reserves to maintain the longstanding 1500 pound/dollar peg. Other fixed dollar relationships in the Gulf have been in the crosshairs with geopolitical fissures, notably in Qatar under commercial and diplomatic boycott which recently extended to Tunisia with refusal of airport access. Lebanon’s scheme is considered solid in the absence of depositor flight, which has spiked rarely during shocks such as the assassination of Hariri’s father and Hezbollah-Israel war outbreak.

Egypt floated its currency after reaching a 3-year $12 billion IMF pact triggering heavy foreign investor bond and stock market inflows, and half the sum has been disbursed so far. Growth improved in the latest quarter to 5%, but inflation soared to 30% with the 50% pound devaluation and electricity subsidy adjustment. The budget deficit hit 10% of GDP mainly due to higher interest payments, as the central bank hoisted benchmark rates toward 20% following “prudent” monetary policy, according to the Fund’s November review. International reserves are at a record $37 billion, double the corresponding 2016 level, to cover seven months imports on combined remittance, and direct and portfolio investment strides. Gulf allies Saudi Arabia and the UAE in turn extended maturities on $4 billion in deposits coming due in 2018. President al-Sisi has targeted their investors to help develop his new desert “administrative capital,” at an estimated $5 billion first phase cost. Private property firms have purchased land and the Chinese will build a commercial center. However potential Saudi sponsors may be rethinking plans with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s crackdown on wealthy peers, including globetrotting Kingdom Holding chief executive Prince Alwaleed, with a commanding stake in Citigroup. The attorney-general has signaled minimum $100 billion forfeiture from the hundreds of influential business titans under confinement, as next year’s budget hiked spending for the first time in three years on forecast 2. 5% growth aided by the captive payments.

Investor Surveys’ End-Year Party Indulgence
2018 January 8 by admin

Posted in: General Emerging Markets
2017’s impressive debt and equity market streaks are set to continue indefinitely subject to economic growth and inflation adjustments and other caveats focused on global central bank actions and geopolitics, according to early investor pulse-takings. The best year in a decade shrugged off Trump administration and Federal Reserve moves and China and commodity price worries that will remain prominent, and in 2018 EM currencies may not beat G3 ones, according to a limited Bloomberg poll of money managers. Mexico, Brazil, Indonesia and Russia will be outperformers, while China, Argentina, Poland and South Africa should lag. By the main three regions, Asia is favored over Latin America and EMEA, but the often cited “Goldilocks” combination of output, earnings and monetary impetus will be more selective across asset classes and geographies under still buoyant index results, the analysis finds. Turkey is viewed as the riskiest bet as the failed coup repercussions linger, President Erdogan’s allies are implicated in a US money laundering trial, the economy may be overheating with 8 percent growth the past quarter, and interest rates were hoisted only 50 basis points with double digit inflation amid the President’s charge it is on the “wrong path. ” EMTA’s Q3 survey also came out to report steady $1. 3 trillion in trading, with Asia outpacing Latin America for the first time in its two decades history. Local debt, at 57% of the total was led by India at $130 billion, followed by South Africa, Brazil, Mexico and China in the $75-$95 billion range. Eurobonds, split 53% and 40% percent between sovereign and corporate, had Argentina and Saudi Arabia prominent in the former category. Brazil and India instrument dealing was almost equal overall, and China and Mexico ones were tied for runner-up status. Warrant and option turnover was $9 billion for the period and without a detailed breakdown were presumably on Venezuela and other oil exporters with value recovery rights from previous restructurings.

China has not yet entered mainstream domestic bond indices, but should be added next year as the stock market weighting also rises marginally on the MSCI. November economic data were mixed, with retail sales and exports up over 10 percent but fixed investment only ahead 7 percent at the slowest clip in two decades. Foreign exchange sales resumed even though the state allocation body cited currency “balance” and the bank regulator will soon end the waiting period for foreign institution yuan trading licenses. The official growth forecast remains 6. 7 percent amid reports that the deleveraging push may soften at the December work conference. Tech firms not as indebted as large government enterprises now account for 15 percent of output and 10 percent of employment according to official research. The securities overseer has denied over 100 IPO applications although state company profitability is the best in five years. Moody’s Ratings has a stable banking sector , with the shadow segment under tougher rules as commercial lending continues to jump RMB 1 trillion monthly approaching a 15% annual pace. After signaling opening after a Beijing visit by US President Trump, Beijing insisted the 5 percent ownership reporting mandate will not change, as Washington’s new national security strategy criticized China’s “aggressive, mercantilist” system hardly putting international stakes first.

Nepal’s Framed Frontier Expedition
2018 January 1 by admin

Posted in: Asia
After disappearing from early emerging market investor radar screens in the 1990s with a prolonged plunge into civil war and political instability, followed by an epic earthquake and border closure with traditional ally India two years ago, Nepal completed local and national elections won handily by the Leftist alliance of the nominal Communist and Maoist parties. According to initial results they took control of six out of seven provinces and 70% of parliament, crushing the Nepali Congress formerly in power and an array of fringe opponents including anarchists and royalists. Workers abroad in the Middle East and Asia, whose remittances account for one-third of output, did not vote despite court authorization, but likely would have reinforced the pro-left margin since their campaign focused mainly on infrastructure development and economic modernization rather than revolutionary rhetoric.

Following provisions of the new constitution no-confidence motions, a staple of the previous system which resulted in endless cabinet and government reshuffles, will not be allowed for two years to offer unaccustomed calm. Lowland Madhesis among the country’s poorest continue to advocate for more rights and support under the charter, but the incoming administration due to be headed again by veteran Prime Minister K. P. Ohli has vowed to be more inclusive both toward ethnic and income groups and subcontinent neighbors. In his 2015 term in he signed trade and investment agreements with China, and recently signaled a stalled hydropower joint venture may go ahead to diversify from historic Indian dominance. In his victory speech he promised “never witnessed private sector cooperation” alongside a higher social spending agenda, as the sleepy Nepal Stock Exchange index stayed flat post-poll awaiting concrete economic growth and reform breakthroughs.

Nepal’s Chambers of Commerce and Industry have been dubious in the absence of an “implementation framework” for the socialist economy enshrined in the constitution, amid talk of double taxation at the federal and provincial levels to cover increased social welfare payments. Ohli and his team plan public-private partnerships for large projects and small business, commodity and tourism promotion without specifying policies, as capital flight may spike while the vacuum lasts according to critics. They also worry about an expected rise in domestic borrowing, which has been capped at 5% of GDP annually, and favoritism toward cooperatives associated with ruling coalition leaders. Independent economists argue that the government should focus on better managing earthquake reconstruction after 650,000 homes and over one-third of output were destroyed, the World Bank estimated. In December it approved a $300 million credit to follow on the $200 million in the event aftermath, and pick up the pace for the over 350,000 residences still slated for rebuilding. They urge renegotiation of ventures such as the $2. 5 billion dam suspended with the Chinese over contract irregularities on more concessional rather than commercial terms, even though foreign debt is low unlike other low-income economies, in the view of the IMF’s latest Article IV report this March.

The Fund described Nepal as “trapped in a low growth and investment equilibrium,” with GDP expansion averaging 4% the past decade as a regional laggard. Inflation and the fiscal deficit are under control, but state banks and enterprises got almost 2% of GDP in equity support in recent years which should be curbed, the analysis advised. Decentralization under the new constitution could raise budget risks, and without electricity tariff adjustment power supply will stay compromised, it added.

On monetary policy the Indian rupee peg was praised as a “transparent anchor” as demonetization fallout continues to hit local households and firms, but it has been “overly accommodative” with annual credit growth reaching 30% to spur recent tightening. The central bank introduced an interest rate corridor in 2016 to keep medium term inflation within the 7% target range, and uses repos as a liquidity instrument, with banks experiencing shortages around the election period. Financial sector reform was jointly identified as a priority by the Fund and regulatory officials, with plans to modernize prudential standards and enforcement for lending, securities and insurance. On the stock exchange in December the government revived a pledge to divest its 35% ownership and finalized rules for margin trading, but frontier market investors after decades out of the action will hold off at least another few months for clearer weather to mount a daring expedition.





The Yangon Stock Exchange’s Anniversary Angst
2018 January 1 by admin

Posted in: Asia
The Yangon Stock exchange added a fifth telecoms firm listing and launched on-line trading to mark its second year since opening, but the local index was stuck at 475 capping a year of foreign investor disappointment despite passage of a new companies law that will eventually allow access. The Rakhine State crisis, as it is called in official media since the Rohinga population is not formally recognized, has blemished the civilian government’s reputation as the accounts of hundreds of thousands of refugees fleeing to Bangladesh describe human rights abuses warranting UN investigation and possible donor aid cutoff and trade sanctions. ASEAN’s recent Philippines summit suggested that while the region may continue its “non-interference” stance the US and Europe will likely take punitive action. President Trump and his Secretary of State Rex Tillerson have been famously at odds over their personal relationship and diplomatic direction, but were united on a strong warning to Aung Saung Suu Kyi that ethnic cleansing reports should be verified and met with economic and military consequences.

The IMF in a November Article IV visit cautioned GDP growth would come in around 6% for the 2016-17 fiscal year , with bad weather hurting dominant agriculture and construction project slowdown. It added that the tourism and investment impact of the humanitarian emergency had yet to be felt and may be “localized,” and cited risks “tilted to the downside” from banking sector and other uncompleted reforms. They have prevented global value chain integration and poverty reduction notwithstanding the refugee scrutiny, and the Fund urged a “well-sequenced second wave” of liberalization and infrastructure development for viable frontier market status.

Growth above 6. 5% is projected next year on inflation at the same level, and the current account deficit should shrink 1% to 4% of output. The shortfall has been covered chiefly by foreign direct investment, and reserves at three months imports and the exchange rate are “broadly stable,” according to the report. Critics believe that FDI has been sluggish since the National League for Democracy assumed a parliamentary majority in the civilian transition early in 2016, and then unveiled a dozen-point economic plan with scant detail. The Fund estimates the sum at $4-5 billion this year with large data gaps, after a previous spurt on one-time hydrocarbon and telecoms ventures.

The army, which still controls one-quarter of legislative seats, key security ministries and strategic state enterprises also holds sway over economic policy, described as “sick” by the chief advisor to the former junta Dr. Myint. He has expressed skepticism over meeting the end-decade per capita income target of $1,800 and even catching up and competing with poverty stricken socialist neighbor Laos. His vision is private-sector led with a defined social safety net for the disadvantaged, in contrast with the “low delivery and expectations” he associates with Aung Sung Suu Kyi’s administration. Ruling party leaders like U Lay Nyint on the Economic Committee have urged farm export diversification and central bank independence under internal “frustrations,” while asking the international community for patience under existing political and technical limits.

Amid fanfare last week President U Htin Kyaw signed the long-awaited updated Companies Act, replacing century-old provisions, enabling a 35% foreign ownership stake in domestic counterparts and authorizing trading on the Yangon Stock Exchange. It modernizes corporate governance and minority shareholder rights, with an automated registry to be in place with Asian Development Bank assistance. Previously only selected industries like building materials and car distribution were open to outsiders, and a companion 1940 law barred non-resident equity sales. However officials indicated that implementation rules could take another nine months, and lawyers representing overseas investors lamented “missed opportunity” from the delay.

The same pattern applied to new central bank rules for “overdraft” loans, 70% of the $9 billion total, which are made on preferential terms or indefinitely rolled over to lock in customers. Originally they were to be cleaned up under a six-month deadline, now extended to three years, since executives from the industry’s two dozen institutions raised the specter of widespread runs with an immediate crackdown. Amid the standoff, five new state sector-specific lenders in farming, mining and tourism were approved to worsen allocation to favored clients. The central bank itself is forced to finance the near 5% of GDP budget deficit, as an historic hostage to financial system inertia alongside the stock market.

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Russia’s Banking Blockade Blowback
2017 December 25 by admin

Posted in: Europe
Russian shares tried to finish the year positive, as President Putin signaled his reelection run amid swirling allegations of manipulation and back-channel deals during the 2016 US polls and Trump transition aftermath. Former national security adviser Flynn joined other junior and senior campaign officials in facing prison time on criminal charges, with his perjury guilty plea focusing on diplomatic contacts before the administration took office where 2014 sanctions modification may have been explored. The President’s son-in-law in turn is reportedly under investigation for private and early government interactions with top executives of Russian state VTB, a main target of the original bilateral business ban which was reinforced this year with further legislation widening the potential scope against individuals and institutions particularly in the energy and financial sectors. The new reach could include all sovereign debt allocation to be considered in a Treasury Department study, as the foreign investment share in ruble paper stands at one-fifth the total. A pullback would raise pressure on domestic banks to fill the gap after the collapse of two major private competitors, and as they are already over-exposed to corporate borrowers with the twenty biggest accounting for 225% of common equity according to a December report by rater S&P. Concentration risk may be understated as it is “not fully captured” in current reporting which may flout single customer limits and not combine bond investment and credit lines. Large companies have also transferred cash from foreign to local banks, and do not disclose the holdings. From 2014-16 the overreliance intensified with the system’s high interest costs and low profitability aggravated by the oil price crash. Sanctioned Sberbank, VTB, Rosselkhozbank and Gazprombank hold half of the load on their books, without incorporating ruble and Eurobond allocation. For individual clients the ceiling under IFRS standards is put at $40 billion, and Rosneft had $25 billion in outstanding credit alone in the September quarter, the ratings firm noted. The recent failures of Okritie Bank and cohorts, following the central bank’s withdrawal of 250 other licenses, accelerated retail depositor flight to quality and size which injected funds, but companies could further experience losses in smaller intermediaries only partially covered by insurance.

While both leading state banks and corporates have pared foreign debt by necessity over the sanctions period, they owe $100 billion in interest and principal payment in 2018. The amount is manageable but may require deposit drawdown at home and abroad, especially if refinancing channels are constrained by fresh US and ally curbs. To prepare capital spending has been cut on major projects with the exception of a few high-profile hydrocarbons and railway deals. The government has indicated it will be selective in future equity participation, and has ruled out sizable privatizations in strategic enterprises while demanding increased dividends. The top three state banks do not need near-term Western capital market access, but their retail deposit growth will slow and the central bank’s foreign exchange support program dating from the 2015 crisis is winding down. The “specially designated” bank pariah list could also be expanded and secondary penalties applied against other countries under the “Countering America’s Adversaries” law aligning Washington’s political parties on an anti-Putin platform, the review concludes.

The CFA Franc’s Dogged Devaluation Designs
2017 December 25 by admin

Posted in: Africa
The CFA Franc two-decade old peg to the French counterpart and then the euro, with a 50 percent devaluation in 1994, is again under the microscope after recent commodity price decline worsened domestic and external imbalances in the respective Central and West Africa monetary unions, according to a ratings agency report which identifies countries most at risk from currency realignment. CEMAC’s oil export dependence puts it in worse position as current account and fiscal deficits were in the high single digits to national income at end-2016, with $5 billion in reserves covering just over half of monetary liabilities against the 20 percent minimum needed under the French Treasury arrangement. Budget gaps have eaten into liquid assets at the regional central bank, which has also exhausted overdraft facilities to member governments. WAEMU is more diversified with bigger output and leaders Cote d’Ivoire and Senegal register 7 percent GDP growth and better governance, S&P comments. Foreign exchange and fiscal reserves are “comfortable” and the analysis does not forecast formal depreciation but offers a sensitivity index ranking the most vulnerable in a switch. Congo, currently in negotiations on an IMF program with a low “CCC” sovereign grade, is at the top of the list with an 80 percent share of imports/output, the worst fiscal deficit in the two groups and a default record on its $500 million international bond. Its statistics are not reliable or frequent, and although the commercial debt burden would spike the relative damage would be greater in Cameroon, Gabon, Cote d’Ivoire and Senegal with bigger and more regular Eurobond issuance. They may have partially hedged risk through an African Development Bank window but another 50 percent CFA Franc drop would compromise budget positions and hurt ratings. Petroleum exporters Cameroon and Gabon already signed Fund programs and Senegal’s economic indicators are “much better” than in the 1990s. The sustainability debate over the currency regime has been “largely political” reflecting colonial era estrangement and new Asia outreach. In September protests erupted across the zones as Paris under President Macron unveiled a fresh Africa strategy stressing bilateral investment and security improvement, but immediate alternatives are lacking. Monetary flexibility is limited but low inflation in the 2-3 percent range, versus 15 percent for the rest of the continent average, has been a stability buffer outweighing possible competitive gains from devaluation, the review concludes.

Sovereign debt restructuring that may be in play regardless of exchange rate level should follow market-based recommendations compiled by an expert study group, according to the UN’s Economic and Social Affairs Department sponsoring the effort. Detailed templates should be developed for loans as well as bonds, and the more popular fiscal agent could be shifted to a trust structure to more easily bind creditors. Their committees should be free of conflict of interest, including holding credit default swaps on instruments while in dialogue and negotiation. The IMF’s “good faith” requirement must entail information disclosure and prevent arbitrary voting pool designation and is otherwise a “safety valve” to flag egregious behavior. Bank regulators including the BIS should reconsider capital standards and other treatment that foster pro-cyclicality and delay resolution despite both sides earnest engagement, the UN panel urges.

The IMF’s Foregone America First Feud
2017 December 18 by admin

Posted in: IFIs
A year into the Trump administration IMF watchers, as in a recent paper by the Canada-based Center for International Governance Innovation, remark on the lack of “vitriol” toward it as compared with free trade pacts like the TPP and the other Bretton Woods arms, the development banks which originally faced proposed 20 percent budget cuts. The “America first” focus on bilateral commercial deficits and alleged currency manipulation are issues at the center of Fund advice and monitoring, but its technical and understated political nature have not attracted the same multilateral invective as the UN and WTO. The Treasury Department appointees directly responsible are not yet in place and White House relationships outside are thin, although top officials at both places reportedly have cordial relations with Managing Director Lagarde. In April China was not named a currency violator, despite repeated campaign promises, following a Fund assessment that the renimbi was fairly valued. The retreat may have been reinforced by the urgency of getting Chinese help for North Korea anti-nuclear measures, as Treasury Secretary Mnuchin urged stronger exchange rate surveillance. On country bailouts which aid private creditors, senior line appointees Malpass and Lerrick have expressed skepticism in past writings awaiting a new test case.
On Greece conservative Republicans introduced legislation in Congress to oppose further assistance and another quota increase until all debts were repaid, but the administration did not support the move or rise objections as a fourth loan arrangement the past decade was finalized over the summer. Secretary Mnuchin also praised current programs in Egypt and Ukraine and technical assistance on money laundering and terror financing. The Article IV report on the US in turn approved “broad objectives” such as tax reform, infrastructure spending, financial regulation and NAFTA overhaul. However its GDP growth estimates were lower than in the submitted budget and it called for open markets alongside better structural policies on education and training as the income inequality recipe rather than blaming trade partners. The fresh team may confront its first large rescue quandary in Venezuela, where it has imposed bilateral sanctions including on future debt exchange and purchase while the sovereign seeks restructuring with reserve exhaustion. The latest quota reform round, after the prolonged delay while President Obama was in office with Republican opposition, may not be concluded until 2019. Early betting is that additional incremental realignment of voting shares toward big emerging economies may be smooth but that more appropriations will be difficult, in view of critics’ push to tap global capital markets instead.

Africa has been an active recent Fund rescue region and assistance was a main topic at a forum between Secretary of State Tillerson and dozens of foreign ministers. Ghana extended its accord until the first quarter of 2019 with $350 million remaining to disburse, under a fiscal deficit goal of 5 percent of GDP next year to be covered by another $1 billion in Eurobonds. Zambia remains in negotiations as copper prices rebounded on Chinese demand and drought ended. Inflation is on track for the medium-term 6-8 percent target range, likely to enable central bank easing and Treasury bill yield decline as off-index investors creep in to shine returns.

The Asian Development Bank’s Yield Chase Chastening
2017 December 18 by admin

Posted in: Asia
The Asian Development Bank’s November local bond monitor covering the third quarter in nine East Asian government and corporate markets showed “strong” 11. 5% annualized growth to $11. 5 trillion in total, but also pointed to higher yields and foreign capital outflows at the end of the period amid lingering qualitative and quantitative liquidity concerns. Advanced economy central bank balance sheet normalization and increased global GDP expansion have not affected financial market stability, but “potential risks” encompass monetary policy and structural features, including the lack of hedging instruments. China continues to dominate regional markets with a two-thirds share, and bond size to GDP is now 70% with Korea and Malaysia leading the pack under that measure. October international selloffs were pronounced in Indonesia and Thailand, as East Asia still struggles to diversify the investor base, according to the report. A periodic liquidity survey found an even split between countries improving and stagnating with Hong Kong, Vietnam and Singapore in the former and the Philippines in the latter. The ADB warned that dealing amounts and spreads suggest longer-term bottlenecks which could aggravate overseas sentiment turn as the current return “chase” abates.

Vietnam was the exception as 2 and 10-year government bond yields fell after a central bank rate cut. In China deleveraging raised costs beyond developing Asia’s better growth outlook, with the ADB prediction at 6% this year on 2. 5% consumer inflation. The marginal uptick has not punctured the simultaneous stock market rally, with emerging Asia up 35% on the MSCI index as world interest rates and volatility remain low on “solid” corporate earnings, particularly in the technology sector. Foreign ownership of local debt jumped to 40% in Indonesia after a sovereign rating upgrade, and most currencies depreciated slightly against the dollar outside a 1% Malaysian ringgit gain.

Domestic bond issuance rose 4% from the second quarter, and Korea solidified its number two position as the market approached $2 trillion. Malaysia and Thailand are next at $300 billion in size, with Islamic sukuk 60% of Malaysia’s total. Indonesia and the Philippines are in the respective $200 billion and $100 billion ranges, and Vietnam is the smallest at $50 billion with a negligible corporate segment, which is one-third overall activity on average. China, which just opened the government market, has the lowest non-resident share at 3% followed by Korea at 10%, where portfolio outflows accompanied military threats from the North. Chinese firms led in regional cross-border placements with $1. 5 billion, while Malaysia’s Maybank and national mortgage company Cagemas had the biggest single transactions in Chinese Yuan and Singapore dollars. East Asia offerings in the dollar, euro and yen reached $250 billion through the third quarter, already 10% ahead of full year 2016, with China and Hong Kong sponsors accounting for 75% of volume.

Bond market-related policy and regulatory shifts were notable over the period, including repo launch in the Philippines; a cooperation pact between securities supervisors in China and Singapore; foreign company authorization for Thai baht-denominated issuance; and approval of a medium-term capital market development plan in Vietnam. They were incorporated into interviews with fixed income sales and research desks, asset managers and strategists, and official overseers across the nine economies to determine prevailing liquidity conditions. By turnover ratio only Thailand, Hong Kong and Indonesia were over 0. 5 for the quarter as active markets, while bid-ask spreads reduced 5 basis points. Average government bond trade size decreased from a year ago to $5 million, with tightening most prominent in China and Korea, the largest markets, due to respective non-bank crackdown and geopolitical drags. Respondents also highlighted structural weaknesses in rank order, from the lack of derivatives and private institutional investors to onerous custody and settlement and tax treatment. Malaysia was singled out as scoring well overall but damaged by recent offshore currency hedging restrictions. Withholding tax is steepest in Indonesia and the Philippines at 15-20%, while Vietnam is in the earliest stage of derivatives development. On the corporate side, secondary markets do not exist in Philippines and Vietnam and liquidity is otherwise “subdued. ” Transparency has improved with available and accurate pricing and financial data through dedicated platforms, but capital and access controls are uneven and may become choppier should bond performance sour in coming months and further compromise category outcomes, the survey implies.

The Balkans’ Lingering Reconciliation Trials
2017 December 11 by admin

Posted in: Europe
As notorious war criminal Mladic was found guilty on almost all counts and sentenced to life for his ethnic extermination campaign during the 1990s, Serbia and Croatia continue to struggle with post-independence legacies of heavy state ownership and political infighting but insist they have opened fresh economic policy and EU convergence chapters to enter the foreign investor mainstream. In Belgrade, which was bombed by Western coalition forces due to Mladic’s actions, the ruling SNS party led by President Vucic, with a technocrat government and a declared lesbian prime minister, remains popular although it is behind in surveys for the mayor’s race in the capital which may be scheduled simultaneously with parliamentary elections. The IMF program is on track with a 1 percent fiscal surplus set this year although civil servant wages and infrastructure spending will rise in 2018. The central bank is on hold with dinar stability around 125/euro and may hike rates soon reflecting global trends. Growth should pick up from the current 2 percent on further consumption and export recovery and FDI drawn in part from privatization sales. The 3 percent pace in Croatia is slightly higher aided by a tourism boom, with international visitors up 12 percent on an annual basis. The sector provides one-tenth of employment and has diverted arrivals from less secure Southern Europe and North Africa competitors. The collapse of retail conglomerate Agrokor, now under officially-directed restructuring, dampened consumption but EU cohesion funds helped fill the gap. The budget shortfall will be under 1 percent allowing exit from Brussels’ excess deficit procedure, but public debt is 80 percent of GDP and unions expect a 15 percent salary increase. A cabinet reshuffle kept the ruling HDDZ party in charge with a slim majority after the junior partner was ousted, but new elections could be called especially if the Agrokor workout stumbles.

Bulgaria assumes the EU presidency in 2018 after completing a major motorway as an aid recipient as it continues with low absorption and anti-corruption marks. A fiscal deficit is expected on higher pension and social security outlays, without intent to tap sovereign debt markets for financing. The currency board remains sacrosanct and property markets have bounced off the bottom again interesting foreign buyers and tenants. Romania’s breakneck 7 percent expansion has provoked warnings about consumption-driven stimulus, with the 3 percent-plus fiscal hole due to trigger European Commission monitoring. The current account balance has also worsened, and the central bank tweaked the interest rate corridor after 5 percent inflation, and may proceed with benchmark hikes into next year especially if political risks persist. The ruling party head has again been indicted for fraud, and his moves to drop the case through legislative maneuvers invited large street protests. A search for scapegoats has stirred nationalist anti-immigrant sentiment observers fear may drift toward levels in Hungary and Poland. In the former billionaire Soros fired back on the “lie campaign” mounted by the Orban government, and in the latter a “pure Polish blood” march organized with Law and Justice Party backing drew international condemnation for World War II era references. However their stock markets were up over 35 percent into November, with monetary accommodation and solid West Europe export demand redressing the outcry.

Chile’s Elevated Election Rerun Fatigue
2017 December 11 by admin

Posted in: Latin America/Caribbean
Chilean stocks on a 35 percent run on the MSCI Index through October were humbled as repeated rightist presidential election favorite Pinera did not won on the first round as expected, with respective center and far left contenders Guillier and Diaz finishing close behind. He would succeed outgoing President Bachelet for a second time, after her term was marred by meager growth at 1. 5% this year and stagnant fixed investment from tax, labor union and private pension changes. She angered the mining community by refusing projects on environmental grounds, while expanding university access to low-income students. With family members caught in scandal, her popularity rating dipped below 25%, and the ruling coalition could not unite around a candidate leaving the field seemingly set for a Pinera romp although his abrasive character and past allegations of illegal campaign funding continued to alienate voters. In contrast with his initial sweeping free-market platform, the latest version has been cautious to court moderate support but includes easier copper industry permitting and labor rules after export rebound on Chinese demand. As the contest plays out inflation is subdued at under 2 percent aided by a firmer currency, and the central bank after an extended hold may cut rates into 2018 should food prices be unaffected by weather conditions. The business-friendly contender’s lackluster result may be an ominous signal for upcoming polls in Colombia as President Santos, another unpopular incumbent, exits on equally meager growth and a controversial peace deal with the guerilla FARC, which has registered as a political party to offer its own standard-bearer for “economic justice. ” Oil export earnings are up, but the current account deficit will still come in around 4% of GDP, and the fate of fiscal reforms to curb that gap is uncertain under the next administration, which may be under public spending pressure to meet infrastructure and social commitments.

Mexico’s mid-year equity rally has petered out as the election cycle there looms alongside NAFTA renegotiation impasse after several rounds. Ratings agencies began to present worst-case scenarios under pact dissolution which would trigger the worst recession in a decade, as officials reject devastating outcomes with the remaining global network of trade relationships. Presidential early poll leader Lopez Obrador has toned down his trademark populism but promises to spurn a bad North America deal and revisit private opening of the state petroleum sector. He directs venom toward President Trump as an “irresponsible neo-fascist” while promising to uproot corruption and drug trafficking at home through new approaches. An independent opponent, the spouse of ex-President Calderon, has emerged with 10 percent backing under a “conciliator” vision appealing to centrist voters after she spurned the conservative National Action Party. The ruling PRI has not yet designated a successor to President Pena Nieto, whose reputation suffered from consecutive insider scandals and economic and law enforcement missteps. Central bank head Carstens steps down in November with annual inflation at 6 percent, triple the growth rate, and rate rises on the horizon to match the US Federal Reserve’s likely trajectory. The peso again dipped toward 20/dollar as sunset clauses and other negative constructs gripped upcoming tripartite talks and runoffs.

Zimbabwe’s Post-Mugabe Crocodile Tears
2017 December 5 by admin

Posted in: Africa
Zimbabwe stocks as the only savings haven paused after a near 400 percent advance on the MSCI frontier index through October, as the ruling party turned against President Mugabe approaching four decades in office after he cleared the succession path solely for his spouse Grace. The longtime army chief and vice president for the past two years, nicknamed The Crocodile for his alleged patient ruthlessness including violence against the political and tribal opposition, was dismissed for suspected plotting, but military allies sprung to his defense and deployed tanks into the streets and around key government installations to assert control. The President was confined to quarters and stripped of party leadership and subject to impeachment vote, as local and foreign democracy campaigners urged fresh elections. The power struggle had been brewing for months and coincided with a grim Article IV IMF review in July highlighting the depth of continuing economic and financial system collapse and remoteness of official lender reengagement with continuing arrears despite a staff monitoring program. The report traces a sad history since independence when per capita income was higher than neighbors and manufacturing lead output, and points to 1990s farm confiscation and runaway spending triggering hyperinflation as low points. It cited informal private sector resilience as a rare bright spot and praised the decision to replace the domestic currency with the dollar and rand a decade ago despite the “imperfect regime” in view of the undercapitalized central bank and scarce liquidity. Public sector wage giveaways and an overvalued exchange rate soon endangered the system, and reserves have run out with steep current account deficits and unpaid external debt. New “quasi-currency” instruments were introduced as a half-measure, but so-called bond notes, electronic transfers and Treasury bills are poor substitutes for hard cash in circulation. Additional exchange and deposit withdrawal controls underscore the country’s isolation from mainstream trade and investment as well as diplomacy in light of sanctions over bad governance and human rights, the review commented.



To finance the 10 percent of GDP fiscal deficit above Treasury bill issuance capacity the government borrowed directly from the central bank, as the external position likewise weakened on falling agricultural exports and rand-based remittances. Overdue payment was cleared to the Fund’s concessional poverty facility under the 2015 “Lima process” but other bilateral and multilateral obligations remain outstanding despite attempts to line up commercial sources and to collateralize gold assets for refinancing. One fifth of currency in circulation is now bond notes trading at a sizable discount to dollars, and bank account daily limits are $20 with interest rate ceilings also in place. Foreign exchange priority is essential goods with an Article VIII restriction assigned under the Fund’s rules promoting open capital follows. Both growth and inflation were originally forecast at 2-3 percent this year, and before the official infighting over the post-Mugabe path fiscal consolidation was “urgent” especially with state enterprise losses likely to drain the central asset management company. Financial sector functioning was impaired with heavy bad loans and the severing of 50 correspondent relationships the past two years with increased credit and reputation risks. The business environment may improve from a meager base with recent Special Economic Zones, but the “indigenization” legacy may continue to prey on stock market wading safety, the analysis suggests.

FDI’s Ultimate Purpose Posturing
2017 December 5 by admin

Posted in: General Emerging Markets
An IMF working paper, responding to gaps in the benchmark coordinated direct investment survey and bilateral reporting generally, has stripped out offshore special purpose structures for the first time in an attempt to chart ultimate investor relationships and totals. It stipulates “asymmetries” in country inward and outward numbers where one is twice the other in half of cases and small economies have disproportionate shares as purely financial conduits. They do not represent physical ownership at the accepted 10 percent threshold and through “complex chains” can mask the business and geographic source. The analysis uses new OECD data and removes the artificial vehicles to chart actual integration and linkages where tiny global hubs in Europe, Asia, the Caribbean and elsewhere fade in importance among the 115 nations tracked. The average discrepancy in pairs is over $5 billion and may derive from conflicting valuation methods for unlisted equities despite Fund guidance. The proliferation of special purpose entities (SPEs) at multinational firms distorts “real” activity, as they are non-resident domiciles without production or presence and often “pass-throughs” for tax and confidentiality advantages. Offshore frameworks can be readily created in major jurisdictions like the US, where they bring in an estimated $100 billion in annual revenue. They encourage questionable transfer pricing for intragroup sales which are to be at “arms- length,” but violated EU rules through Luxembourg and Ireland-based transactions. Tax-shifting to low-cost or exempt locations is another goal and the British Virgin and Cayman Islands are two examples of places that do not report to outside bodies. The final investor with majority voting control may be unknown, but SPE isolation knocks one-third from the IMF survey results even though regional true FDI ties between neighbors, such as with Hong Kong and China are strong. When excluding these arrangements Cyprus and Mauritius are no longer on the top 40 locations and are replaced by “traditional economies” such as the Czech Republic and Saudi Arabia which do not offer financial engineering and round-tripping possibilities. The publication urges permanent statistical revisions around the concept of actual interconnectedness which could feature in the next comprehensive tabulation due in the coming months, at the same time that the US tax code could be changed to reflect productive rather than paper trail direction according to bipartisan advocates.



The fresh methodology will not improve Turkey’s relative position as its aspirations to better balance international portfolio and direct inflows and bridge the chronic current account deficit clash with visa and aid disputes. US commercial relations have frayed since last year’s aborted coup and subsequent crackdown on hundreds of thousands of alleged sympathizers, including a prominent philanthropist and think-tank head the past month. President Erdogan insists that exiled cleric Gulen be extradited and accused embassy personnel of abetting overthrow , as big state lender Halk Bank is under investigation in Washington for illegal gold trading with Iran. Bilateral visa processing has been suspended as the currency again slipped toward 4/dollar on the tensions, aggravated by a threatened EU aid cutoff for anti-democratic practice. Entry talks are already in the deep freeze, and the Turkish President criticized Brussels for “wasting time” and hinted at quitting both the decades-long negotiations and model FDI makeover.



Jamaica’s Weather Beaten Backstop Boomerang
2017 November 29 by admin

Posted in: Latin America/Caribbean
Jamaican stocks were up almost 75 percent on the MSCI Frontier index and external bonds were reopened at record low 5-6 percent yields, as the IMF praised strong compliance under the second review of the 3-year $1. 7 billion program. Fiscal year 2016-17 growth was 1. 5 percent on second half mining, weather, and agricultural lag offset by “buoyant” construction and business outsourcing which reduced unemployment to 12 percent. Headline inflation was 4. 5% in August, within the target zone, and the central bank dropped the benchmark rate 25 basis points to sustain double-digit credit expansion with bad loans now under 5 percent of the total. The current account gap rose to 2. 5% of GDP with car and machinery imports on $2 billion in net international reserves and slight local dollar depreciation in the last quarter. In the financial sector securities dealer oversight tightened and competitive foreign exchange auctions were launched. The budget was roughly in balance with a 7 percent primary surplus amid slow progress on reducing public sector wages and “reshaping” government, according to the Fund’s October report. Pension reform is under preparation with Inter-American Development Bank help, and one-fifth of assets in two big state bodies, the Urban Development and Factories Corporations, could be divested though the stock exchange and direct tenders, with the plan a key trigger for the market rally. While all securities brokers observe a master retail agreement, legislation has not been finalized for a new bank resolution regime and pension fund portfolio guidelines for more domestic and international diversification. The central bank may need recapitalization, and foreign exchange exposure is a “sizable share” of financial institution balance sheets, equal to 10 percent of GDP for non-loan investment. Intermediaries often finance themselves through subsidiaries and are in turn tied to corporate conglomerates threatening wider spillover risks, the analysis cautioned.

A separate IMF piece of work soon to come out as a book examines the broader Caribbean distressed debt legacy over the past decade which peaked at 15-20 percent levels and have only marginally improved with lingering restructuring, sale and write-off obstacles. The highest loads are in the Eastern Caribbean in St. Kitts and Nevis and Dominica, while at the opposite end Trinidad and Tobago, with stocks ahead 7 percent, has less than a 5 percent burden. They contribute to economic drag, and courts take on average three years for insolvency cases. Valuation and registration are inadequate and social customs also weigh against disposal as property foreclosure is shunned. The research asked bank executives and government officials to rank the chief resolution impediments, and the former stressed economic, legal, collateral, and real estate conditions, while the latter cited poor creditor information and underwriting and the absence of formal impaired asset markets. The authors split the difference by urging clearer loss recognition rules and greater credit bureau use as in Jamaica in recent years. Judicial and bankruptcy frameworks should be revamped and beyond the Bahamas a pan-regional NPL market could be set up, building on OECS harmonization efforts in asset management and credit reporting to create “momentum” rather than creative accounting, they suggest.

The Rohingya Crisis’ Regional Doubt Reverberations
2017 November 29 by admin

Posted in: Asia
While President Trump’s maiden Asia voyage focused on the headline themes of bilateral China relations, North Korea standoff, and trade pacts, the unrelenting Rohingya flight from Myanmar into Bangladesh, with over half the estimated 1 million population exiting so far, was also on the diplomatic and economic agenda as a long-festering regional issue. Washington is reconsidering easing of commercial and financial sanctions late in the Obama administration as refugee advocacy and human rights groups press the State and Treasury Departments for renewed punishment of documented military abuses under the nominal civilian leadership of Nobel laureate Aunt Sang Sue Kyiv. Natural resources under army-controlled companies remain a taboo area subject to strict reporting requirements, but US investors began to join European and Asian counterparts in exploring consumer and real estate ventures in particular. Private equity firms tentatively moved into position for promised stock exchange expansion and liberalization, after a trio of initial listings sparked new frontier market interest.

Despite another year of expected 6-7% GDP growth, these calculations are now indefinitely sidetracked with continued financial sector policy delay and inconsistency, compounded by international community condemnation of the reported Muslim expulsion campaign by the majority Buddhist population. The massive spillover into Bangladesh, following previous waves there and throughout South and East Asia, has raised investor questions about simmering ethnic and religious divides and long-term handling of the humanitarian turned economic development emergency. They come against the backdrop of MSCI stock market performance reverting to its pre-2008 peak, and preference turning to countries better equipped to sustain gains with inclusive business friendly outreach.

Bangladesh, up 6% on the MSCI frontier benchmark through October, won widespread acclaim for agreeing to host another 500,000 Rohingya crossing the border since August in addition to the 100,000 already in the Kutapalong refugee camp for decades. The move softened Sheikh Hasina’s reputation for intolerance toward the political opposition, as domestic supporters glorified her as the “mother of humanity. ” She approached donors in Geneva for pledges to build the world’s biggest refugee facility, and her Finance Minister requested World Bank concessional loans at the October annual meeting, with hundreds of millions of dollars to be mobilized in the first phase. However Dhaka has severely restricted non-government organization education, health and housing provision and the refugees’ freedom of movement, including to work or to enroll in local schools. Food prices have jumped in the vicinity, with the arriving Rohingya denied permission to apply their agricultural skills.

On the subcontinent India and Pakistan have also absorbed large Rohingya communities. Shares in the former have been at the bottom of the MSCI core universe since their return, with a 25% loss through October after Prime Minister Sharif was ousted on corruption charges while staying at the helm of his Muslim League-Nawaz party. The Rohingya integrated into the majority population, but remain economically marginalized and may be at increased risk with the chance of another balance of payments crisis forcing IMF rescue, according to observers. The Chinese Economic Corridor has injected billions of dollars in infrastructure stimulus to prevent recession, but added external debt to the existing heavy load on more expensive commercial terms. India on the other hand recently threatened to expel 50,000 Rohingya on national security grounds, citing a possible repeat of the nascent rebel movement claimed by Myanmar’s military to justify its scorched earth tactics. However the stance also fits with the Hindu fundamentalism promoted by Prime Minister Modi and his allies, which was largely ignored by investors as growth was chugging along at 7%, but may now be seen as stoking communal tensions and swallowing reform oxygen with the slowdown to 5% and portfolio outflows.

Indonesia and Malaysia have been equity market laggards, with advances just above 10%, as the Rohingya question comes into play more prominently in relation to identity politics and economic access. The race for Jakarta governor was plagued by Muslim-Christian friction and Investment Minister Tom Lembong decried “rising tribalism” as religious activists insist President Jokowi take a tough line with Myanmar. In Malaysia officials unveiled a generous pre-election budget with growth exceeding projections at 5. 5%, but their treatment of Rohingya refugees in detention centers is believed to be opposite and smother available job prospects key to transforming their plight to productive ends.

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Sovereign Debt Restructuring’s Loaded Cases
2017 November 22 by admin

Posted in: General Emerging Markets
The Institute for International Finance’s annual survey of its restructuring principles and investor relations trends, prepared under joint public-private sector senior executive direction, covered a half-dozen country cases and forty active communications programs as the joint tracking begun in the early 2000s reflected this year’s sharp capital flow predicted pick up from $750 billion to $1 trillion. The group noted that a brief July scare around advanced economy central bank liquidity moderation was a minor repeat of the 2013 Federal Reserve taper tantrum and that rising emerging market foreign currency denominated sovereign and quasi-sovereign obligations posed risks, even as systemic crisis was not flagged. The workouts in the report were relatively minor but could be revisited in the near future and also represent troubling precedents. Belize was back for a third round on its $525 million original “super bond” after natural disaster aggravated fiscal and current account deficits. A creditor committee was formed one week after the government sought relief, and 90 percent of holders agreed to lower coupons and an equal installment amortization schedule from 2030-34. Consent solicitation replaced a formal exchange offer due to collective action clause provisions, and negotiations took less than six months, with financial and legal advisers paid for under the previous agreement. Mozambique defaulted on a Eurobond and two loans and proposed to swap state tuna company-owned for sovereign claims in a “compact timeframe” without full consultation. Exit consents applied in the March 2016 operation which got 100 percent acceptance for extended maturities at a 10. 5 percent yield. After the deal officials revealed another $1 billion in outstanding credit, prompting IMF program cutoff and an external audit which found that half the proceeds could not be traced. Parliament and the local courts declared the official guarantees illegal, and international banks leading the syndicate are reportedly under US Justice Department investigation. Informal discussions have been held with creditors, who are pressing for a fresh Fund arrangement and debt sustainability analysis with recognition of existing cash flow help in a “cautionary tale,” according to the IIF.

Venezuela is in full-blown crisis with total foreign debt estimated at $150 billion, or 150 percent of GDP, and liquid reserves at $2 billion following a series of state oil company re-profiling and new finance transactions last year. Chinese debt for petroleum exports has already been restructured, and the central bank sold a $3 billion PDVSA bond at a one-third discount to a US asset manager in May in a controversial placement which catalyzed momentum for Treasury Department sanctions against future debt or equity purchase. President Maduro has delayed almost $4 billion in payments due the last quarter and ordered his Vice President, under previous bilateral curbs as an individual for alleged drug trafficking, to lead comprehensive restructuring talks with all commercial and official creditors with a wide disparity in geopolitical and instrument composition. The IMF may be called in to verify statistics, but Caracas with its dueling parliaments and record inflation and violence will remain at the opposite extreme of the IIF’s data and investor outreach winners. Almost half the countries tracked were in the top quartile with Indonesia, Mexico Turkey with the highest score followed by Brazil, Russia, South Africa and Poland in need mainly of restructuring information and network links.

Europe’s Strange State Enterprise Striations
2017 November 22 by admin

Posted in: Europe
An IMF working paper divides state-owned firms into the “good, bad and ugly” in a dozen European countries with financial, operating and governance indicators benchmarked against Sweden in an attempt to assess the legacy of “inconsistent privatization” often leaving heavy debt and poor productivity. Efficiency and profitability lag private competitors, particularly in Southeast Europe and the Baltics. Slovenia, Lithuania and Latvia bolstered oversight but Bulgaria is behind on centralizing ownership rather than putting ministries in charge, clarifying dividend policies and professionalizing boards. Over 6000 companies are tracked across eight industries, dominated by health care and utilities. They contribute 1-10 percent of GDP and employment, with differences in the two readings reflecting relative capital and labor intensity. Energy sector output is over half government-controlled in Hungary and Poland, while mining is a main category in Estonia and Sweden. Losses are concentrated in several lines, including electricity in Bulgaria, transport in Croatia, and banking in Latvia. In Sweden by comparison large profits come from gaming and real estate. Debt in a handful of countries stands at 5-7 percent of GDP, and Bulgaria, Romania and Poland are at the bottom in return on equity. Extrapolating from the World Economic Forum’s infrastructure scores, the Baltics provide superior company quality to the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Firm-level difficulties pose macro fiscal and financial stability risks, with high contingent liabilities in Sweden and Slovenia’s two-thirds state-directed banks sparking a crisis five years ago that almost required Brussels rescue. Productivity tends to suffer unless foreign investors are also active, and the record is uneven on following core OECD corporate governance rules, with political interference worst in Bulgaria and Lithuania. EBRD transition measures likewise show gaps on hard budget limits, bankruptcy law enforcement and competition. Ownership guidelines are inconsistent and overlap with policy responsibility, and board member nomination and compensation procedures are opaque and not skills-based. The review urges comprehensive reform with the understanding that even healthy legal regimes fail on implementation.

Europe and Central Asia were again standouts in the World Bank’s latest Doing Business survey with 80 percent of economies taking strides in the dozen areas tracked, and Macedonia and Georgia in the top 20 of 190 nations, with both leading regulation revamp since publication launch fifteen years ago. Latvia and Lithuania are close behind with bankruptcy and tax shifts evaluated by tens of thousands of ground-level professionals as the raw study input. The European Union has commissioned its own sub-national work already profiling the Balkans, and Central Asia members Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan led the reform pack the past year. Kosovo also completed insolvency overhaul, and Belarus and Mongolia passed movable property laws to widen credit access. On minority shareholder rights, Kazakhstan mandated independent directors and an audit committee, and Georgia eased liability lawsuits. Loan reporting was strengthened in Slovenia, but business startup remains the signature catalyst in the region and globally with 2017 steps in the Czech Republic, Serbia and Tajikistan, although it was not highlighted in its maiden external bond prospectus which focused on dam construction for hydropower projects involving other key enterprise pillars on elusive electricity and permits.



Refugee Bonds’ Millions to Billions Chant
2017 November 17 by admin

Posted in: General Emerging Markets
At the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank, the global refugee crisis, which has spread from the Middle East to Asia with the headline escape of hundreds of thousands of Rohingya from Myanmar into Bangladesh after years of flight into the broader region, was in the spotlight. World Bank President Jim Young Kim emphasized the new development lender mantra of “turning billions into trillions” through innovations and risk management tools to better mobilize private capital, as the Institute for International estimated that foreign inflows into emerging debt and equity markets would again reach $500 billion with this year’s stellar index performance.

The poor country IDA window envisions $2 billion in the future for refugee host needs, as Bangladesh’s Finance Minister submitted an initial request for the Rohingya influx which alone may cost $1 billion, according to a local economist. The Bank may issue additional emergency bonds in its own name for on-lending alongside the Global Concessional Financing Facility (GCFF) – created by the Bank, EBRD and the Islamic Development Bank to allow discount borrowing by middle-income frontline states like Jordan and Lebanon – but conventional emerging and frontier market investors could more easily be directly tapped for larger sums through dedicated “refugee bonds” where the Bank instead should emphasize credit enhancement. Jordan’s government has shown interest in a pilot program which, after modest startup and preparation outlays, could raise hundreds of millions to billions in fresh long-term funding the first year.

Sovereign bonds are a logical starting point for refugee capital markets development, but public and private equity participation through investment funds is also feasible, particularly in view of the number of large listed stock exchange companies already providing goods and services to this population in camps and cities. Jordan is just one possibility in the area’s economies overwhelmed by refugee and displaced person waves, including Turkey, Lebanon, Tunisia and Iraq. It has issued external bonds both cleanly and with US government guarantees, and a $500 million one at 7% yield was oversubscribed recently within the guidelines of its IMF program aiming to prevent increase in the steep 90 percent of GDP debt ratio.

Preliminary discussions with traditional emerging market investors, as well as those focused on “impact” investing drawn to the socially-responsible component, suggest that the government could offer a lower yield for a refugee bond that ties the cost to detailed, independently verified reporting on proceeds allocation.