Current President Sharif sparked
optimism
over business and diplomatic rapprochement with India as he attended Modi’s inauguration, which coincided with the release of Indian fisherman accused of trespassing.
Kleiman International
China’s Treading IPO Trance
2014 July 8 by admin
Posted in: Asia
Chinese stocks with a 5 percent MSCI decline through mid-year were roused from their torpor as IPOs suspended for months resumed worth $90 billion as hundreds of companies awaited approval. Under revised rules daily price fluctuations cannot exceed 20 percent and underwriters will be responsible for placement and after-market support. The domestic supply comes as banks and brokers attempt their own capital-raising to meet prudential ratios, and headline transactions are pending abroad such as CITIC in Hong Kong and Alibaba in the US. The formal financial services providers intend to strengthen their position versus “shadow” intermediaries which have lost monthly share after a squeeze on interbank and wealth management activity. Trusts narrowly avoided default after the “Credit Equals Gold” recent rescue, but with an estimated RMB 5 trillion coming due this year, one-tenth real estate-related, the prospect continues to hang over the sector. The “entrusted loans” company to company channel reported non-payments in June, as they were up at double the pace of corporate bonds in Q1. According to S&P the latter amount outstanding pips the US at almost $15 trillion including the $3 trillion in local government funding platforms. Reuters puts external bond issuance at one-fifth the emerging market total and on-shore and offshore transactions combined at $170 billion through the first half. With land sales dropping as their main revenue source, cities and provinces won approval from Beijing for $65 billion in straightforward municipal bonds this year which will no longer be backed by the Finance Ministry. Fitch Ratings praised the move toward on balance sheet obligations with greater transparency but noted the transition would be rocky. On the all-important property front sales in 300 cities were down almost 50 percent on an annual basis according to the latest tracking, with prices off in half of the nationwide sample in May. Official data calculates unfinished projects with a value of 20 percent of GDP as developers struggled in the second quarter to raise over $5 billion in offshore debt. Their leverage is at records by traditional measures but many specialists contend that short-term cash and liquidity are the overriding ratios with larger players not at risk short of outright collapse.
Premier Li has pledged to extend 7. 5 percent growth as he implemented a mini-stimulus infrastructure package that hiked spending 15 percent. PMI readings continued around 50 amid subdued 2. 5 percent inflation and flat retail sales increases. Trade data was lackluster in May with imports off and exports ahead slightly as FDI was at a year and a half low. A Bloomberg investor survey predicted the overall near-term debt/GDP ratio at 250 percent as the IMF and World Bank have become more strident in urging fixes. Deposit insurance, interest rate liberalization, currency flexibility and fiscal decentralization were among the recommended priorities which have stalled along with the equity pipeline.
UNCTAD’s Direct Investment Optimism Optics
2014 July 8 by admin
Posted in: General Emerging Markets
The UN Trade and Development Commission expressed FDI “cautious optimism” after it rose almost 10 percent last year to $1. 5 trillion, with developing and transition economies taking 60 percent of the figure led by the Asia region. The industrial world share is at an historic low and emerging markets are half the top 20 destinations with China second globally. Their transnational corporations also account for 40 percent of outward direct investment, and poorer states in Africa and elsewhere rely only 10 percent on extractive industry while 90 percent of inflows are now for manufacturing and services. In North America shale gas and worldwide pharmaceuticals have experienced major takeovers as the latter had Q1 M&A of $25 billion in 50 deals. Private equity firm assets surpassed $1 trillion in 2013 but net allocation of $85 billion was “subdued” and concentrated on the US and Europe, according to UNCTAD. Less than 2 percent of sovereign wealth funds’ $6. 5 trillion is FDI-directed but state-owned multinationals represent one-tenth the global total. Emerging market private and government-run firms had $1 trillion in cash on hand as they expanded overseas faster than developed country competitors. Africa’s number rose 5 percent to $55 billion with only the Central and West sub-regions dropping. Intra-African commitments from South Africa, Kenya and Nigeria for greenfield projects were one-fifth of activity. Asian inflows dwarfed other regions at $425 billion, $125 billion into China, where outflows of $100 billion were almost equal. Southeast Asia collectively received the same sum, while the subcontinent got $35 billion. Latin America-Caribbean’s take was $300 billion, but South America’s component fell 5 percent, and Brazilian and Chilean companies’ outbound investment slumped one-third to $30 billion. Transition Europe rose 30 percent to $110 billion mainly to Russia, where companies also spearheaded reverse FDI into CIS and EU economies. Advanced country inflows of $550 billion were almost half into the EU, with Germany rebounding and France and the UK in “steep decline. ” Japanese outflows were $135 billion as Abenomics accelerated offshore establishment. The poorest countries in Asia and Africa had an uptick in energy projects, but small islands suffered from the loss of apparel and fishing trade preferences. On investment policy the decade-long liberalization trend was partially eroded with one-quarter of new measures in a sixty-country universe restrictive, the agency found.
Incentives are geared mostly to information and business services, and 45 additional international treaties were signed last year. “Megaregional” agreements such as the European-US TTIP and pan-Pacific TPP are now prominent, with a half-dozen ongoing negotiations involving 90 countries, but they could “create inconsistencies and marginalize third parties,” the reference warned. The interlocking networks have fostered record arbitration filings, with 575 disputes outstanding. Intra-EU cases dominated the latest round, and investor-state conflict resolution has been highlighted as a key feature of future pacts with panel procedures and transparency subject to debate as in the existing government to government WTO mechanism with its own friction.
Jamaica’s Twisting Spiral Bounds
2014 July 2 by admin
Posted in: Latin America/Caribbean
Jamaican stocks were down slightly on the MSCI Frontier index as the IMF cited progress in reversing the “negative spiral” of recession, unemployment and debt one year after a new standby was inked preceded by a second domestic bond exchange with partial haircuts. The government with a two-thirds parliamentary majority has invited civil society and private sector participation for an economic advisory body to implement reforms as Q1 growth was 1. 5 percent with tourism and commodity improvement on 7. 5 percent inflation due to local dollar depreciation. In the last fiscal year the primary surplus was over 7 percent of GDP on reduced spending, as the current account gap shrank to 10 percent and international reserves neared $2 billion including inflows into central bank certificates of deposit. Monetary policy has tightened following the official debt swap lengthening maturities and cutting coupons with secondary trading essentially frozen, and private credit up just 5 percent annually and concentrated on short-term retail loans. NPLs are 5 percent of the total and capital adequacy is high at 15 percent of assets, although both banks and securities dealers retain large government exposures posing balance sheet and solvency risks. External funding from Venezuela’s discount oil import program could also be constrained and pressure could spread to other Caribbean islands with a Jamaican financial sector presence. Crime and natural disasters are persistent threats which can dent business and consumer confidence regardless of headline adjustments, the Fund commented. Supply-side bottlenecks to be overcome include high electricity costs, labor rigidities and tax compliance burdens, and infrastructure modernization and privatization will revamp the airport and roads. Agriculture has begun to respond to currency depreciation and additional flexibility is recommended over the medium term at the same time worker skills and training are upgraded. A long-range fiscal rule will confine public debt to 60 percent of GDP by 2025 with a cap on contingent liabilities. Civil servant wage hikes are under a multi-year accord and pension change could raise the retirement age 5 years to enable current debt/GDP at 140 percent to fall 50 percent by end-decade. Inflation-targeting could soon be considered as the central bank attains greater independence and technical capacity and a new banking law aids conglomerate supervision and resolution.
The retail repo securities broker model is slowly being phased out and replaced by collective investment schemes as a first step. Maturity mismatch and poor management practice haunt the industry but collapse has not occurred as with CL Group in neighboring Trinidad and Tobago, where stocks are up this year with hydrocarbon prices. Distressed buyers have focused more recently on Barbados, which was expected to follow the IMF rescue route after sovereign ratings downgrade but instead instituted mass public sector layoffs to keep debt/GDP below 100 percent. Its thinly-traded foreign bond has since rallied but labor and popular opposition to the cutbacks may resume the lethal spiral.
Sovereign Debt Rules’ Exasperating Exceptions
2014 July 2 by admin
Posted in: General Emerging Markets
As the US Supreme Court upheld the New York holdout payment order for Argentina and Grenada continued negotiations on a reopened bond deal, and the IMF previewed a new exceptional access policy post-Greece encouraging maturity lengthening as an early alternative, sovereign workout specialists have often minimized their initial impact. A National Bureau of Economic Research paper on Argentina’s case refutes claims of disruptive litigation and asserts that the singular remedy was due to “unprecedented disregard” for restructuring norms. In the absence of a supranational bankruptcy mechanism direct legal sanctions are limited on borrowers that instead are punished through denied access and reputation damage. Consensual talks are routinely conducted to resolve difficulties under IMF and IIF guidelines respectively for lending into arrears and promoting capital flow stability. Both codes mandate a good-faith effort and full information disclosure, but Argentina’s original 2005 offer was unilateral as the Fund criticized “no constructive dialogue” and the likely understatement of growth prospects to drive greater repayment reduction. The three-quarters creditor acceptance then was skewed by the 100 percent take-up by captive domestic institutional investors, and the congressional “lock” barring better future terms and discussions with non-participants. The hard line was in contrast with the approach by Dominica at the time as it “worked constructively” with individual holders to get exchange unanimity. In 2010 the same deal was repeated to bring overall subscription to 90 percent as opponents soured on the litigation process, according to the Bureau’s analysis. As of 2012 experts worried that enforcement under foreign law was too weak as no assets had been seized despite numerous collection judgments as they were commonly protected by sovereign immunity. Judicial recourse is a rare strategy given the expense and expertise requirements, as most portfolio managers cannot hold illiquid instruments and are eager to benefit from post-swap secondary market price increases. Big commercial and investment banks prefer to maintain relationships and often come under diplomatic and regulatory pressure to preserve balance sheet and geopolitical ties. Just one-sixth of restructurings over 35 years since the mid-1970s saw private lawsuits, with Argentina and Greece the exceptions over the past decade.
From a contractual standpoint governments now have an array of provisions at hand to overcome holdout challenges, the review adds. Collective action clauses with a 75 percent supermajority threshold are the New York norm since 2005, binding dissenters, and refinements in enforcement and aggregation can further block alternatives. Pari-passu provisions dating from the 2000s on privileging a particular class were interpreted broadly in Argentina’s covenants, but Italy and others have since removed equal payment wording. Loan agreements have sharing edicts so that creditors broadly receive awards from litigation. Local law transfer was a feature of the recent dramatic Greek 75 percent haircut with the retroactive application of instrument sweeps. Jamaica in its post-2008 exchanges set high minimum participation rates to forestall judicial action, and after Ecuador’s operation exit consents have been used to alter non-financial terms. The survey concludes that Argentina represents no broad precedent as Taiwan’s export-import bank has unsuccessfully tried the same pari-passu filing with Grenada without the “uniquely recalcitrant” debtor epithet.
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Ecuador’s Banished Pariah Posture
2014 June 30 by admin
Posted in: Latin America/Caribbean
Five years after a voluntary $3 billion default, Ecuador sold $2 billion in 10-year debt at an almost 8 percent yield on a $5 billion order book mainly from the Americas, seven times the originally contemplated placement. President Correa hailed the response on the heels of consecutive ratings upgrades due to high oil prices and an estimated $10 billion in Chinese loans in the past five years, along with an associated buyback of the remaining repudiated paper leaving around $100 million in outstanding bonds. In an indication of the need for normal commercial return gold representing one-fifth of reserves in the dollarized economy was reportedly swapped for liquid assets to cover public spending as legislators cited mounting arrears. The road show crossed the US and investor participation was driven by EMBI index inclusion and scarcity value even before the attractive pricing, according to the underwriters, and the proceeds could be used for refinancing $650 million in the honored 2015 instruments especially if a new Chinese oil refinery deal falls through. The watershed transaction coincided with EPFR fund flow numbers nearing positive allocation for the year as all asset class segments were re-embraced. The trade association EMTA’s Q1 survey captured the comeback as volume rose one-fifth from the previous quarter with local-currency taking over 60 percent of the total. The external portion was about evenly divided between corporate and sovereign and Mexico, Brazil and Russia were the most frequently traded countries. Argentina saw an increase in advance of the Supreme Court decisions on the New York judge’s pari-passu interpretation and litigating funds’ extraterritorial discovery efforts, and both issues were determined in the holdouts’ favor in mid-June with a looming $900 million interest payment due from the existing swap. Ratings agencies immediately assigned default-range CCC marks on the rulings, both on procedural and substantive grounds. The government has threatened to redirect relationships to local law jurisdiction to circumvent seizure and the over $1 billion awarded to the two lead distressed creditors could become $15 billion if other non-participants in the previous exchanges demand equal compensation, over half of Argentina’s foreign reserves. CDS quotes are at 2000 basis points in the thin market, as securities gyrated on speculation of direct negotiations for a compromise which upholds both the judicial outcome and the “lock law” at home barring better than 2005 terms until next year.
Just prior to those events, Venezuela’s state oil monopoly went ahead with a $5 billion issue to domestic banks that will be available to US 144A investors in the secondary market, as almost $40 billion has been offered since 2007 both as a dollar valve and for company business and social commitment. With the large Cuban presence and President Maduro’s refusal to agree to opposition dialogue while the police quash demonstrations, US lawmakers have proposed sanctions bills to scant initial support especially in districts where Citgo stations owned by PDVSA can be isolated.
Corporate Bonds’ Rattled Ratio Rationale
2014 June 30 by admin
Posted in: General Emerging Markets
With public and private research on corporate external debt increasingly warning of fundamental deterioration accompanying its post-crisis doubling to $1. 25 trillion equivalent to the US high-yield market, sell-side houses have countered with leverage and profitability findings of “tentative stability” as in a recent JP Morgan piece. It acknowledged weakness in hundreds of non-financial credits with GDP growth stuck at 4-5 percent, but noted earnings margins at 20 percent and low interest coverage for only one-fifth of speculative borrowers. Among categories quasi-sovereigns and Asian miners have the poorest measures although Chinese property companies with their own distinctive features are excluded from the mix. Although interest rates may rise in the second half, 2014 refinancing will be $100 billion less than last year and the negative ratings trend may have bottomed with these offsetting factors. Average leverage exceeds the previous 2009 peak at 1. 7 times but is in line with the “overall cycle,” the bank argues. Governments in Brazil and China have been major causes as they deploy commodity firm balance sheets for policy objectives, with Petrobas’ 5x leverage a particular outlier. By region Asia and Latin America are at 3x, while Europe and the Middle East-Africa have half that ratio, with the latter due to Dubai’s post-restructuring experience. That geography also has the highest profitability at 35 percent and interest coverage, which stands over 4x for EM high-yield generally or twice the danger zone. Consumer and metals companies are most at risk with names in Argentina and Mexico among the worst performers. A separate examination of Chinese real estate developers emphasizes liquidity metrics like cash balance/short-term debt, and points out that strong ones have available funding to gain share under the “small likelihood” of housing price collapse. In a developed market comparison, leverage lags at the same ratings range while US investment-grade profitability has pulled ahead. The juxtaposition may however be misleading for issuers from Argentina and Ukraine which have decent ratios but are constrained by the sovereign near-default ceiling. Nationalized oil producer YPF has managed to place global bonds notwithstanding the twists in the holdout saga which reached a legal climax with the Supreme Court refusing to hear an appeal of the $1. 5 billion New York award to two funds. Spain’s Repsol was compensated with $5 billion in bonds for the expropriation, and President Fernandez in a last-ditch about-face will negotiate directly for a compromise which may include a combination of cash and paper. Her cabinet originally vowed to reroute payments through Buenos Aires after the decision, but existing US holders and agents would violate the law if they supported the strategy.
Ukraine’s new President Poroshenko proclaimed a unilateral cease-fire in the restive pro-Russian East as industrial names outside the gas and phone monopolies kept their investor base on hopes that EU partnership and global agricultural demand would boost business. Banks on the other hand are undergoing thorough audits under the restored IMF program as lenders in the rebel regions have been unable to restore service.
The World Bank’s Speed Bump Signal
2014 June 26 by admin
Posted in: General Emerging Markets, IFIs
The World Bank’s half-year Global Economic Prospects update described a “bumpy start” which will keep global growth under 3 percent as developing countries register below 5 percent expansion for 2014 for the third time in a row annually. The latter’s flat performance should be succeeded with medium term 5. 5 percent results more in line with potential as high-income import demand offsets tighter monetary conditions. Supply-side bottlenecks hurt most emerging market regions and East Asia’s average growth will level to 7 percent by 2016 as Sub-Sahara Africa’s settles at 5 percent. Latin America and Europe output will climb only 2 percent this year as the former is often operating at full capacity and Russia-Ukraine trade and investment battles stymie that continent. South Asia and MENA in contrast should show surges as India realizes infrastructure reforms and Iran and Iraq export oil and Egypt and Jordan overcome conflict. Short-term risks are “less pressing “ according to the publication as depreciations and interest rate hikes in key vulnerable economies have tackled current account deficits and rapid credit extension, although inflation and payments imbalances remain high in places like Brazil and Turkey. It posits that Ukraine escalation could deliver business and consumer confidence blows amounting to 1 percent of developing world GDP. As monetary policy normalizes through mid-decade fiscal deterioration may also warrant attention as post-crisis debt levels are up 10 percent in half the emerging market universe. Non-performing loans are a main risk in Europe and Central and South Asia as domestic and foreign debt servicing costs rise. Adjustments to boost competitiveness and productivity must again assume priority after the “firefighting and demand management” phase of recovery. China, Mexico, the Philippines and Colombia are among a group with “ambitious agendas” and China’s transformation is especially crucial with its influence on Asia and commodity exports. Developing country industrial production up 3. 5 percent in Q1 was just half the past decade’s pace with the Chinese slump most notable but Indonesia, South Africa, Peru and others also affected. PMIs have since strengthened but the trend toward “cyclical deceleration” persists, the Bank believes. Capital flows have rebounded with modest exchange rate damage since last May compared to previous episodes, as benchmark index bond yields are 1. 5 percent lower and most equity markets have fully recouped mid-2013 losses.
Global credit easing and yield appetite have fostered repair even as the commodities complex splits between firm energy prices and falling metals and agriculture. Copper’s plunge did not seem to harm demand for Zambia’s April debt market return at an 8. 5 percent yield as it also considered a new IMF program to restore fiscal probity. Kenya soon after completed its long-planned debut placement at lower cost despite farm export reliance and tourism warnings associated with a spate of terrorist incidents. The Finance Minister had to postpone the issue until repayment cleanup from a previous scandal was ensured in a repeat operation.
East Asia’s Testy Maturity Markers
2014 June 26 by admin
Posted in: Asia
Korea’s bid for developed market inclusion was indefinitely shelved by MSCI on marginal gains through June, while the Philippines got a BBB S&P upgrade accompanying a near 20 percent advance, ahead of coup-prone Thailand where a special economic cabinet was convened but just behind election-seized Indonesia where the young presidential favorite began to campaign with a trusted business and policy veteran. The Korean central bank has reportedly resumed intervention with the won’s 10 percent appreciation hitting monthly exports, as the sovereign proved its fixed-income popularity with an oversubscribed $2 billion multi-currency 30-year bond. GDP rose almost 4 percent in Q1 on 1. 5 percent inflation, but after the new President’s fiscal stimulus consumption has retreated under the weight of a $1 trillion household debt burden which may be alleviated under expanded official programs. The Philippines now has scope for such support after the Aquino government improved the chronic deficit and introduced tax reforms, and it has underwritten post-Typhoon Haiyan reconstruction as growth stayed at 5 percent in the first quarter and should again lead ASEAN. Portfolio inflows and remittances continue to bolster the peso against the dollar as monetary policy was tightened incrementally through consecutive 100 basis point bank reserve ratio hikes. In Thailand domestic investors remained committed despite the foreign pullout in May on formal military takeover until potential elections next year, as political activists are rounded up for questioning and former ministers oversee scheduled infrastructure spending plans blocked by the previous impasse between Prime Minister Yingluck and the opposition. She still faces charges of abuse in the rice subsidy scheme which abruptly ended several months ago as farmers begin to receive back payments from the army council in charge. Recession will last through the first half, and baht weakness may limit future rate reduction as overseas ownership of local bonds is still sizable at 15 percent.
Indonesia held its first presidential debate for the July contest and Widojo mostly passed substantive economic questions to running-mate Kalla but kept his front-runner position on confident appearance. The pre-election budget stipulated a deficit jump to 2. 5 percent of GDP as fuel subsidy adjustments were postponed and missing from campaign platforms. The trade gap will be hard to ease on commodity export suspension, as multinational firms have come under scrutiny for domestic value-added contributions. On the budget front Malaysia in contrast with a modest share uptick through June abolished sugar support and raised property taxes in an attempt to lower the shortfall to 3. 5 percent of GDP. Public debt is near the 55 percent statutory ceiling and foreigners control almost half of the domestic debt market. The government is also struggling to regain credibility after the unsolved Malaysian Airlines disappearance months after delaying and divulging inaccurate information resulting in lawsuits under consideration by passenger families. Ambitious infrastructure outlays are in the pipeline to aid domestic demand which also applies to the mystery’s fate.
The Middle East’s Ensnared Evanescent Evolution
2014 June 24 by admin
Posted in: MENA
Egyptian shares kept their 15 percent advance as general recently turned civilian al-Sisi took the presidency with 97 percent of the vote despite under 50 percent turnout after an additional balloting day. He will wield all government powers until parliamentary elections scheduled for October, and has engaged international management consultants and investment banks to advise on economic and debt strategy. The current budget stipulates a 12 percent of GDP budget deficit with half of spending for subsidies and repayments. The currency stabilized around 7. 15 to the dollar in the aftermath, as Gulf allies called for a donor conference to bolster their $15 billion in existing pledges reversing reserve drain. Saudi Arabia, where the market advance mirrors Cairo’s on the MSCI, spearheaded the effort amid signs the $550 billion exchange would finally allow direct foreign investment. The outlet could take funding pressure off banks with a 100 percent loan-to-deposit ratio as public sector project backing increases at a 35 percent annual clip. Both growth and inflation should be about 4 percent as the Kingdom also tries to staunch the MERS virus outbreak already claiming hundreds of lives. The UAE is another big supporter as it moved to full emerging equity market status in June on the back of a 35 percent climb. Oil exports have firmed with the loss of Iranian and Libyan shipments and manufacturing and real estate are solid with Dubai property prices reverting to immediate post-crisis levels. The large-ticket construction cycle may have peaked for the main emirate, leaving ample scope to rollover the Dubai World legacy injections. Qatar, which also enjoyed a core index graduation surge, cut its gain to 25 percent by mid-June on allegations it won the 2022 World Cup through corruption using a representative since banned by the ruling FIFA body. An investigation will be conducted after Brazil’s hosting and a re-vote is possible as the award continues to encounter cost and operating obstacles, including the need to enclose and air-condition the stadiums for summer play. The soccer competition is the main infrastructure thrust, but road-building for other purposes as well will itself amount to $5 billion early through 2020 to maintain non-energy double-digit GDP growth.
The hydrocarbon equation could be further roiled by the insurgent march toward Iraq’s resource-rich Kurdish enclave after capturing Mosul and other key cities. The US-trained military forces abandoned their defense and equipment as Prime Minister Malaki and his Shia coalition negotiated with other parliamentary factions for a third term after highly-disputed polls. Illiquid external bond prices dropped on the al-Qaeda offshoots’ penetration which may mix with spillover from the Syria fighting to raise the geopolitical stakes and dent decent stock market performance in smaller neighbors like Lebanon, which is again without a president as the GDP growth forecast fell to 1 percent as foreign currency bank deposits at a new low proved fleeting.
Ukraine’s Chafed Chocolate Taste Buds
2014 June 24 by admin
Posted in: Europe
Ukrainian stocks led the MSCI frontier charge with a near 20 percent gain through end-May as local bond yields reverted to their pre-crisis levels, as chocolate tycoon Poroshenko, a former foreign and trade minister with solid Russian business and political connections, romped to an overwhelming first-round presidential election win. He intends to keep Prime Minister Yatsenuk, a close ally of distant runner-up Tymoshenko, and other economic technocrats in their posts as negotiators narrowed differences with Moscow on overdue gas payments and Presidents Putin and Obama and European heads of state met with him at the World War II Normandy landing anniversary commemoration. The government honored a $1 billion sovereign bond obligation as IMF program money goes basically for debt service at the outset. External corporate issues also were widely lifted to market-weight by sell-side houses on expected default aversion and investment climate improvement and cross-border diversification beyond Russia. Equities there recouped post-Crimea annexation losses but the MSCI Index remained off 10 percent with the ruble down half that amount against the dollar. GDP growth was under 1 percent on an annual basis in Q1 with fixed capital formation slumping 4 percent. April inflation was 7. 5 percent and could stay elevated with currency depreciation, although deposit conversion and fund flight have abated in recent weeks with pauses in military and diplomatic confrontation. The army pulled back from maneuvers on the Eastern Ukraine border as President Poroshenko offered rebels amnesty but vowed to maintain counterattacks to reclaim territory. Russian officials again delayed the privatization timetable for minority stakes in name enterprises as foreign buyers keep away with the threat of tighter sanctions and further profit falls as with Sberbank’s doubling of bad loan provisions. Polish shares were up slightly as new export orders dented by the Russia-Ukraine standoff capped the PMI measure at just above 50. The central bank predicts 3. 5 percent growth and consumer confidence has rebounded with the zloty following the ECB’s round of quasi quantitative easing. The 25th anniversary of post-communist independence was marked as the last military dictator who ceded power to the Solidarity labor union was honored at a state funeral attended by subsequent prime ministers. The authors of the transition economic shock plan were also prominent in the retrospectives and urged such leaps for Ukraine’s incoming team.
Europe’s political and geopolitical angst turned to Greece and Turkey as they begin to haggle over Cyprus’ fate following large gas finds and tackle their own internal governance challenges. Turkish stocks rose 20 percent through May and the lira was stable despite protests a year after the Gezi park outbreak and a 50 basis point rate cut at Prime Minister Erdogan’s instigation amid nominal central bank independence. Greece’s opposition Syriza party trounced traditional blocs in European Parliament polls as the ruling coalition retains just a two seat majority. The troika released a penultimate disbursement on lingering recession and emigration from the rescue’s bitter aftertaste.
Bangladesh’s Stitched Repair Reaping
2014 June 19 by admin
Posted in: Asia
Bangladesh equities up almost 20 percent were at the MSCI frontier top range through May on the anniversary of the Rana Plaza garment factory collapse which ushered in new labor, minimum wage and inspection norms for exporters as the IMF commended “strong performance” in its latest program reading. The political climate has been calm despite another ferry disaster and opposition party threats to again mount strikes after it boycotted January parliamentary elections. GDP growth should exceed 5 percent on food-driven 7 percent inflation, with the current account surplus steady in the face of remittance decline as Gulf country hosts repatriate workers. Gross international reserves are $20 billion with the currency firm against the dollar, and state-run banks with NPLs at one-third the total have pared lending after recapitalization equivalent to 0. 5 percent of GDP. Ten more private banks were licensed but commercial demand has been flat with 15 percent borrowing rates and uncertainty over clothing industry reforms to maintain overseas duty preferences in the US and EU. The budget gap should come in at 4 percent of GDP as VAT raises low collection in comparison to other poor economies and energy subsidies are cut with government company professionalization. External bond issuance could support power and infrastructure investment, as remaining current and capital account restrictions are lifted over time. The central bank has tightened rules on insider transactions and stock market exposure but distanced itself from the spat between founder Yunus and ruling officials over control over microfinance pioneer Grameen where it was assigned a board seat. A recent World Bank study of the country’s experience with 500 providers found that multiple institution borrowing was common with distinct household asset and education benefits
Pakistan was ahead 15 percent after a successful $2. 5 billion bond market return despite the low junk rating and army rumblings that anti-terrorist strategy was lacking and that former chief and president Musharaff was being mistreated in his treason trial.
Current President Sharif sparked optimism over business and diplomatic rapprochement with India as he attended Modi’s inauguration, which coincided with the release of Indian fisherman accused of trespassing. Trade normalization was suggested during the month-long campaign even as security representatives remain upset over the slow prosecution of Mumbai attack perpetrators. As Modi took office and named a well-known corporate lawyer and BJP party stalwart to the Finance Ministry, GDP growth was again reported under 5 percent at inflation almost double that figure. The current account deficit has halved since the height of last year’s Fragile Five scare but manufacturing and services exports are sluggish as special non-resident deposit and gold restriction schemes are removed. Portfolio inflows over $5 billion have resulted in a 15 percent MSCI gain as 90 percent of executives polled anticipate the unlocking of FDI projects blocked by the states and administrative delays. The OECD however warned that public sector banking stress could upset the cart as the new leadership ponders a suppler yoke.
The IIF’s Guarded Capital Flow Gaming
2014 June 19 by admin
Posted in: Fund Flows, General Emerging Markets
Despite declaring mutual fund investors “back in the game” as the retail portion in particular remains below the historic average, the IIF’s mid-year 30 country capital flow reading pared this year’s allocation $50 billion to $1. 1 trillion on sweeping Russia-Ukraine and China tensions. In the first half bank lending was running at only half 2013’s pace while Europe’s take was down 25 percent. Equities have picked up on positive MSCI performance, while corporate debt is a fixed-income worry and FDI is steady at $650 billion. China is still the leading destination but regional slack there will be offset by portfolio investment increases in India and Korea. Since the Fed taper scare which uniformly battered currencies they have since been less correlated even as GDP growth and business confidence have not improved, as risk appetite measured by the VIX and global monetary policy are “supportive,” the survey comments. Of the original “fragile five” Turkey and South Africa continue with large current account deficits and above-target inflation. Downside scenarios include a reversion to normal benchmark spreads as reflected in the US corporate BBB margin over Treasuries, and industrial world central bank liquidity withdrawal, or renewed convergence of developed and developing country stock valuations. Their forward P/E ratios are now respectively at 14 and 10, and differences within the main EM universe seem to be justified by underlying economic expansion, with Brazil trading 10 times below the Philippines for example, according to the group. However it notes that price to book values have fallen sharply the past five years due to increased leverage in major markets like China, Hungary and Korea as average corporate debt/GDP rose from 55 percent to 80 percent. Although an established asset class with the size of JP Morgan’s CEMBI at $825 billion, vulnerabilities have “raised concern” and through June non-financial issuance especially has been off 50 percent. Sovereign bonds in comparison have been up 25 percent, and for the combined categories 60 percent has been in local currency. Equity placement at over $50 billion has also lagged 2013’s pace, with $15 billion of the sum through 125 IPOs, despite the $850 billion in tracked international fund holdings.
In China resident capital outflows of $600 billion will be 50 percent above inflows, as currency depreciation discourages the carry trade. India and Indonesia could enjoy post-election surges, while Thailand’s political crisis could be “prolonged. ” Central Europe’s five EU members have been relatively unaffected by the Russia-Ukraine and Turkey troubles but flight could hit Hungary and Poland with their 30 percent foreign investor bond ownership. Latin America is second most popular with $260 billion predicted as domestic debt has become the major attraction in Mexico and Brazil as well as in mid-size Colombia and Peru. In the Middle East Egypt, Lebanon and Morocco could gain with FDI and fund repatriation on transition progress, while in South Africa $2. 5 billion in portfolios have been “rebuilt” after the central bank raised rates and second-term President Zuma raised hopes of cabinet and policy switches.
Brazil’s Wayward World Cup Ambitions
2014 June 9 by admin
Posted in: Latin America/Caribbean
Brazilian stocks were barely positive on the latest quarter 0. 2 percent GDP growth result on 6 percent inflation keeping the central bank on hold, as protests and strikes interrupted last-minute World Cup preparations with popular opinion decrying its cost in survey also showing President Rousseff’s approval at 35 percent with elections just months away. The end of the soccer competition will also coincide with a BRICS summit where the $100 billion joint development bank with equal shares is to be launched with lending to commence in 2016 after a rotating member nation chief executive is chosen. Infrastructure projects will be the focus and Brazil has declined to host it with other capitals vying for headquarters prestige. Unemployment is just 5 percent but retail sales have slumped with consumer debt and state lending arm BNDES has cut subsidized business credit on less demand and contingent fiscal policy cost eroding the traditional primary surplus. Energy and minimum wage interventions have added bloat and been criticized by industry leaders increasingly attracted to the pro-market platforms of rival presidential candidates, especially the PSDB’s Neves who is advised by well-respected former economic officials. To retain support the government has indicated Finance Minister Mantega may be replaced, as he has begun to soft-pedal the swap program with currency retracement to 2. 2/dollar. The current account deficit continues to be covered by FDI and both short and long-term portfolio inflows, although in the interregnum Brazilian assets abroad have also surged as exporters keep money offshore. The ruling Workers Party has resorted to hostile campaign rhetoric against the “neoliberal” model and in media ads warns that anti-poverty and middle-class programs could be gutted under opponents’ return to the “dark past. ” On the agricultural front both coffee and sugar are struggling as the former copes with crop blight and the latter with price controls and facility collapse. Big domestic and foreign groups provide one-fifth of sugar supply and had relied on disappearing ethanol demand and storage upgrades. They resent the near $10 billion poured instead into World Cup stadiums which may not be recovered under recent estimates of direct economic benefit as visitors forego reported price-gouging and unrest.
Operators point to parallels with Argentina’s treatment of farmers, who are enjoying a record soy harvest but face stiff taxes and regulations, as the government urges immediate sales to replenish foreign reserves that have stabilized close to $30 billion after a combination of peso devaluation and interest rate hikes earlier this year. The black market exchange recently spurted to 12/dollar as the central bank took back 2 percent of the 30 percent benchmark, before a restructuring deal on $10 billion in decade-old Paris Club restored calm. Two initial repayments will be made before the end of President Fernandez’s tenure, and her cabinet hailed the “normalization” step toward bilateral export credit agencies that otherwise must contend with bizarre restrictions and statistics.
China’s Tarnished Golden Era Passage
2014 June 9 by admin
Posted in: Asia
Chinese shares after seeing daylight on the regulator’s decision to limit this year’s IPOs to one-quarter the hundreds of pending applications were socked once again by property developer gloom as Moody’s placed the industry on negative outlook and leaders Vanke and Soho referred respectively to the “golden age end” and “iceberg-heading Titanic. ” The rater projected flat sales versus 2013’s 25 percent jump, as new home starts were down 25 percent in Q1. Since 2010 developers have issued $50 billion in international bonds and with average debt-equity at 125 percent investors have turned skittish and scotched recent placements. Outside main cities real estate prices have dropped with clear overbuilding, hurting local governments which get over half their revenue from transactions. Under a pilot program ten jurisdictions will be able to sell their own bonds in the coming months before all financing vehicles will be able to raise money through standard municipal borrowing under a formula yet to be determined. In the meantime Beijing has urged accelerated construction for viable projects to maintain the 7 percent growth target, which may be in jeopardy with PMI readings still below 50 as the yuan continues to gently depreciate. Bank listings have been spurned despite record low valuations as reported NPLs rose again in the latest quarter to 1 percent with a spike in the preliminary “special mention” category. Sovereign and state enterprise debt yields are at the 4 percent plus level with central bank liquidity injections as interbank curbs were introduced with likely strains on second-tier institutions like Minsheng, which has moved to raise capital to mixed response. Companies have become big lenders themselves through entrusted loans which doubled to $400 billion last year as authorities look to squeeze that “shadow” outlet as well. Hong Kong banks with one-fifth of assets tied to the mainland and real estate deals at a two-decade bottom have likewise come under investor and supervisor scrutiny, with a May IMF assessment showing stress test durability under moderate risk scenarios. GDP growth there is set at 4 percent on the same inflation range but tourism has fallen with street protests demanding greater political autonomy. Retail sales and re-exports are off and fund managers are considering relocation to Singapore to gain wider Asian exposure.
The Macau enclave with its literal casino economy is also feeling pressure from tighter border currency restrictions and Premier Li’s anti-corruption campaign which has ensnared prominent civilian and military officials. Resort operating stocks are down sharply and the 10 percent economic expansion forecast may not be reached although the investment-grade rating remains intact on strong public finances. However household subsidies have tripled as share of income in recent years and foreign reserves have slid on local bank demand as future mainland boom bets are hedged.
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Indonesia’s Perfunctory Presidential Preening
2014 June 6 by admin
Posted in: Asia
Indonesian stocks tried to hold on to Asia best 20 percent MSCI gains with India’s post-Modi momentum as its own presidential race turned serious with running mate and allied party selection. Jakarta governor Jokowi tapped former Vice President Kalla to the ticket for age and experience balance while his main army general opponent announced a coalition with Golkar, the post-Suharto apparatus with the deepest field organization in the archipelago. Economic growth in Q1 was below consensus at 4 percent, but the trade surplus has returned on inflation bottoming at 7 percent. The rupiah has remained in the 11,500/dollar zone on unchanged 30 percent foreign commitment to local bonds following the central bank’s interest rate hikes and retreat from market manipulation. However commodity exports have been hammered by the mineral export halt pending greater domestic value-added, a move criticized by the World Bank for damaging revenue and investor confidence as it pointed to erratic anti-poverty progress taking into account the huge informal sector. Bank loan-to-deposit ratios in turn have fallen to 80 percent with credit caution dampening internal demand as savings are withdrawn and relocated in the political transition phase. In fiscal policy the issue of future subsidy cuts has been dodged in the campaign as the outgoing government has shifted to raising luxury good taxes to maintain balance. International companies anticipate another infrastructure modernization effort under SBY’s successor and modification of the ore sales ban, with the Japanese poised for a combined $4 billion manufacturing-services push as their FDI flows to ASEAN represent one-third the total. The mega-banks have stressed cross-border operations with flat loan demand at home and asset redeployment needs in light of the central bank’s massive JGB purchase program. The monetary easing pillar of “Abenomics” has been steady with additional stimulus provided by consumer spending before a recent tax rise. The other elements will be revisited in mid-June a year after introduction including corporate tax, immigration, pension fund and free trade reforms. The Government Pension Plan is expected to expand emerging market debt allocation reflecting parallel retail investor interest especially in Latin American and European offerings. A breakthrough was attempted on the Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations during President Obama’s Tokyo visit and could still materialize to enable a treaty draft to reach parliaments by September, according to observers who note that the US Congress could still delay ratification without the Executive’s cudgel of one-time vote promotion authority.
The Indonesian result will be challenged to be as decisive as India’s where prime minister Modi was sworn in with a compelling BJP majority in the lower house as the long-dominant Congress Party led by the Gandhis suffered historic defeat. Equity market capitalization is $1. 5 billion on torrid foreign inflows despite P/E ratios over 15, and even into battered banks with admitted bad loans at one-tenth of portfolios on the slowest federal growth in decades defying Gujarat-type rebirth.
The IMF’s Small State Large Stakes
2014 June 6 by admin
Posted in: Latin America/Caribbean
The IMF after mixed results from combined commercial debt restructuring and official lending programs in St. Kitts and Nevis and Grenada presented policy guidance for small island state engagement in the Caribbean and Pacific with clear investor and government leader direction. It is intended for the forty members with populations from 200,000 to 1. 5 million that recently gathered in regional conferences in the Bahamas and Vanuatu. They lack economies of scale and with narrow export and production bases show greater external shock tendency. Foreign ownership is high in most sectors and GDP growth lags behind other developing countries with more advanced infrastructure and technical capacity. Public debt levels are steep and Caribbean middle-income status excluded bilateral and multilateral cancellation. Financial systems are shallow and banks and non-banks often are too government-reliant which poses additional obstacles to strict oversight. Global capital market interaction is limited hampering liquidity and dollar exchange rate pegs dictate monetary policy and can hurt industry competitiveness. Growth and job creation have been slow due to private sector weakness and labor market rigidities, according to the paper. Migration and remittances act as lifelines particularly at times of natural disaster which can aggravate fiscal deficits in the absence of binding balance rules. Donor-supported catastrophe insurance is now available but has proved expensive and offers only “marginal” climate risk and energy-transport cost mitigation, the Fund believes. Regional trade and cooperation offer advantages but Pacific islands are too remote to benefit, and bond defaults should be avoided with workouts facilitated by collective action clauses. The East Caribbean common central bank and securities market could be a model for micro-states but has not prevented chronic over-borrowing and exchange rate pressure. In the past decade the Fund’s rapid response facility has been tapped twenty times for weather and geological emergencies, and structural reform conditions have not been priorities but are vital to medium-term recovery and sustainability. St. Kitts and Nevis completed a 2012 50 percent net present value reduction with full domestic and external creditor participation and interest and principal haircuts. New instruments were partially guaranteed by the Caribbean Development Bank and a special purpose vehicle backed by land was included. Tourism accounts for half of exports and depends mainly on US visitors, but the 50,000 inhabitants have diversified into other services and overseas markets. With VAT introduction debt-GDP should soon come down to 100 percent and sugar has been abandoned as uneconomical despite its historic importance.
Grenada on the other hand went off its Fund program a year ago after missing targets and insisting on further commercial bond concessions still in the process of negotiation. GDP growth was stagnant with a lingering primary fiscal gap and 40 percent of benchmarks “never achieved. ” Business climate changes remain elusive with local institutional and professional capacity constraints as Prime Minister Mitchell has been unconstrained in his criticism of bondholder behavior to raise the pain threshold.
Colombia’s Guerilla Tactic Retreats
2014 June 2 by admin
Posted in: Latin America/Caribbean
Colombian stocks paused as the presidential race went to a second round between the incumbent Santos and his main challenger Zuluaga, a protégé of his predecessor Uribe who has assailed an outline peace deal with FARC rebels after lengthy negotiations in Havana. Commodity and construction-related 5 percent GDP growth caused the central bank to raise interest rates slightly as it also resumed dollar buying with an estimated $3 billion in local bond inflows following reweighting in JP Morgan’s benchmark index. Inflation is on its long-term 3 percent target and the 3. 5 percent of GDP current account deficit is overbalanced by foreign direct and portfolio investment. The feuding between the Santos and Uribe camps has alienated voters according to opinion surveys which show consideration for the Green Alliance candidate Penalosa, a former Bogota mayor and technocrat. The talks in Cuba have dragged on for months with few points agreed between the guerillas and government, which still envisions an end-year accord. Demobilization funds and possible drug trade normalization are outstanding issues and officials hope to draw private sector financial backing for solutions following the mixed record on infrastructure development with $25 billion in road projects planned for the coming years. In Chile returning President Bachelet immediately went to work on hiking the corporate tax and eliminating write-offs to pay for wider university access, a move she claimed would affect only the richest corporations although it will contribute to reduced 2. 5 percent GDP growth on inflation at double that number on currency weakness. Listed companies have announced spending cutbacks as banks are unsettled by slower credit growth under tighter prudential monitoring. With the accumulation of private domestic and foreign debt the country has appeared alongside the “fragile five” in vulnerability tables although many analysts argue the trend is manageable. The private pension framework may also be revamped under the new administration as US houses have acquired two funds anticipating evolution. Taxes have also been imposed on unhealthy consumer products to raise revenue and encourage lifestyle changes, and the President has vowed to replace the Pincochet-era constitution with outsize military influence including its automatic claim on state copper miner proceeds.
Mexico’s energy reform slog, which along with lackluster 2 percent growth has fostered an MSCI share loss so far, may demonstrate the complexity of charter revision as the Pena Nieto team tries to win congressional support for its Pemex private opening terms. The initial proposal mandates 25 percent local content over a decade period and a royalty regime tied to oil type and price. A presidential ally was elected to lead the ruling PRI as the assembly debates a raft of enabling law changes in telecoms and political conduct as well. Citigroup’s Mexican unit has come under fraud investigation as commercial lending has increased just 5 percent annually and the peso has been a popular short as momentum recedes.
Corporate Bonds’ Unsung Universal Strains
2014 June 2 by admin
Posted in: General Emerging Markets
Corporate bond spreads widened against sovereigns, which dipped below 300 basis points over US Treasuries in May on resumed retail fund inflows, with the former benchmark at half the EMBI advance, despite $150 billion in oversubscribed gross issuance predominantly from top-rated names in Asia and Latin America. Under ratcheting sanctions Russian borrowers accounting for 12 percent of the CEMBI have been absent slashing Europe’s share to just 10 percent of the total. In Asia and the Middle East local banks and institutional investors have overwhelmingly absorbed the placements, and Latin American companies have tended to tap only sophisticated private buyers and switch to euro-denominated instruments. Prominent defaults this year include a small Ukrainian bank in trouble months before the Crimea escalation, and Mexico’s Oceanographia which pulled down Citigroup executives accused of collusion with it. Other big sponsors have spurred anxiety: Petrobras has become a presidential campaign headache with accusations of overpayment for foreign acquisitions; Chinese property developers have postponed operations on mixed real estate readings and leverage concerns; and Venezuela’s PDVSA has hit the market with a $5 billion program to mobilize scarce dollars after earlier renouncing 2014 entry. According to specialists the asset class has avoided selloffs due to limited liquidity and dealer inventory and the presence of cross-over bids from the saturated US high-grade and high-yield markets. Emerging economy constituents are a tiny portion of their benchmarks and ratings are relatively firm although downgrades now outstrip upgrades. Debuts that represented one-quarter of activity in 2013 have been rarer and financials have resumed popularity to meet Basel III capital standards, especially through subordinated structures with equity conversion features. Gross leverage has hit new peaks in Asia and Latin America, but 2014 rollover needs are manageable at $80 billion overall, particularly with syndicated loans also reviving post-Eurozone crisis as $75 billion was arranged in March according to industry figures. Unrated and speculative portions have come back in line with their 30 percent historic asset class average, but Europe’s regional one will be meager as the Russia-Ukraine and Turkey respective geopolitical and political sagas continue to unfold, analysts believe. A Kazakh bank in the category has already restructured, and Ukrainian private issuers could soon conduct distressed exchanges.
In Asia in contrast election outcomes in India and Indonesia should be positive for their state and family-owned credits while China preference is for giant government enterprises versus caution on second-tier banks and aggressive property firms. Dubai conventional and sukuk varieties continue to enjoy Gulf-wide support, while Venezuela’s oil company paper should be snapped up by both state and private buyers in desperate need of foreign exchange despite the recent re-launch of the SICAD trading scheme. President Maduro however has spurned the same common ground in reaching out to peaceful and violent opponents as he invited dialogue surrounded by arrest and military assault strains.
The African Development Bank’s Relocation Rub
2014 May 29 by admin
Posted in: Africa
The African Development Bank formally re-established its headquarters in Abidjan after a dozen years in Tunis as civil strife switched bases ahead of the annual meeting in Rwanda accompanied by a breakthrough local currency bond and upbeat 6 percent sub-Saharan GDP growth forecast. The IFC placed the first of a Rwandan franc series up to $300 million equivalent at a 12 percent yield with mainly domestic banks and institutional investors, under an East Africa-wide program. The exchange lists just one government bond and equities are geared to cross-trading with neighbors. The effort followed international commemoration of the genocide 20th anniversary and praise for President Kagame’s tribal reconciliation and economic modernization push despite the lack of political challenge. Output there should expand 7 percent as the continent’s medium-term projection is for levels preceding the 2009 crisis, according to the latest update authored with the OECD and UN. The agencies also expect lower inflation with reduced energy and food prices and “prudent” fiscal policy allowing scope for interest rate cuts. They warn however of precarious security in places like the Central African Republic and Mali, adverse weather conditions, infrastructure project delays, and lingering poverty and social tensions as pervasive risks. External financial flows have quadrupled the past 15 years to $200 billion with foreign direct and portfolio investment at $80 billion, above both remittances and official aid. Private capital is increasingly diversified from raw materials into manufacturing and services, as African export growth outpaces other regions although it represents less than 5 percent of the global total. Value chain integration rivals other geographies, but quality and costs remain obstacles and “social upgrading through greater jobs and skills has been limited, according to the analysis. Host countries often impose onerous local content requirements or lose revenue through too generous tax incentives, and lack the organized business associations to engage with multinational executives. By sub-region Central Africa will see 2 percent contraction in oil-producer Equatorial Guinea, while Chad will grow over 10 percent at the opposite extreme. The former will also have the biggest budget deficit, while Congo expects a 10 percent surplus.
In the East, Ethiopia, which just received a sovereign rating in preparation for a maiden bond, is on track for 7. 5 percent growth as textile manufacturers pool efforts for foreign partnership, as Somalia and South Sudan are unpredictable amid repeated conflict. In the South Angola will expand at triple South Africa’s 2. 5 percent “depressing” clip, the AfDB comments. Labor unrest and global slowdown have contributed to the “modest” outlook as President Zuma’s convincing 60 percent-plus re-election could herald another area departure with more business-friendly policies according to meeting participants with miners also ready to settle. The currency, bond and stock markets reflected cautious optimism that his second term would aim to overshadow personal scandal with professional competence in the shadow of post-apartheid’s 20th anniversary and President Mandela’s posthumous legacy.
The Gulf’s Gritty Graduation Gradients
2014 May 29 by admin
Posted in: MENA
Gulf stock markets braced for the May MSCI reshuffling with the UAE and Qatar in the core and Kuwait a residual frontier heavyweight, as Bahrain and Oman anticipated increased attention from both dedicated regional and global investors. Hydrocarbon and private sector-driven GDP growth will average 4 percent on inflation around the same level mainly due to housing costs. Fiscal and current account surpluses will continue in double-digits as a share of output as net foreign assets held in sovereign wealth funds and accounts reach $2. 5 trillion. Bank credit should again expand over 10 percent on loose monetary policy reflecting the US dollar pegs, and value added taxes may be considered to raise revenue, according to a recent IIF forecast. With high unemployment in the GCC foreign worker participation will fade over the medium-term as migrants are sent home and discouraged at the same time nationals are recruited for skilled positions and trained for productivity gains. In 2013 $2. 5 billion in IPOs went ahead after a prolonged lull and in February dual London-listed Gulf Marine completed a $300 million deal. The UAE has led the pack with a near 40 percent increase through April, although merger talks have been shelved indefinitely between the constituent Abu Dhabi and Dubai exchanges, and capital inflow momentum has slowed with relative calm in Arab Spring neighbors. After Dubai World’s recent $20 billion refinancing from the main emirate, another government-linked company offered unprecedented balance sheet disclosure to support a sukuk. Property prices have roughly returned to post-crash ranges, but mortgage loan limits and transaction taxes have pre-empted another bubble. The world’s tallest tower has become a big tourist draw despite early skepticism and Expo 2020 is shaping up as a future milestone with officials thus far confident of crowds and infrastructure funding. Saudi Arabia’s 20 percent advance was behind, as it remains closed to foreign portfolio investors who can enter through promissory note programs sponsored by global houses like HSBC. Riyadh is a construction hub with citizen residences, a new airport terminal, subway and financial center going up as part of $1 trillion in planned projects. The state has stepped in with multiple mortgage sources to fill the gap left by commercial banks, and mortgage-backed securities may soon be launched. Labor force “Saudization” has resulted in the exit of hundreds of thousands of expatriate workers and may raise wage pressure as the fiscal blueprint assumes a breakeven oil price of $90/barrel.
Qatar will again be the GDP growth leader at 6 percent but breakneck World Cup spending has forced controls on future borrowing as gas production falls short of targets. Kuwait’s 2 percent showing in contrast has been due to political standoff which eased after parliamentary elections a year ago. Electricity shortages have hurt business and angered the small population, and after serial debt restructurings Kuwait Finance House may have passed its post-crisis test.
Europe’s Inescapable Smaller Economy Grind
2014 May 27 by admin
Posted in: Europe
The EBRD halved this year’s regional growth forecast to 1. 5 percent on “unusually high” uncertainty from Russia-Ukraine fallout, which could bring recession there and throughout transition countries under a negative scenario. The lender noted that Croatia was already in that predicament and was placed under the EU’s excess deficit procedure with public debt at 60 percent of GDP, as the banking system has a 15 percent NPL ratio. The Slovak Republic in comparison will show 2 percent growth on domestic and German demand redeeming its decision to join the euro, which all the Baltic members have embraced with Lithuania due soon to be the last of the three to enter despite 20 percent Russian export dependence. The Southeast faces “big challenges” on fiscal, financial sector, and structural reform issues as FDI continues to lag the pre-crisis average. Albania has turned to the IMF with weak bank and corporate balance sheets exacerbated by Greece’s and Italy’s woes as immigrants return. Among the smaller states of the former Yugoslavia Bosnia and Herzegovina has extended its Fund program through 2015 but political stalemate has stunted investment and deterred remittances with the decentralization model an unconvincing precedent for current application to Ukraine. FYR Macedonia has been a business community favorite with its incentives and multilateral contingency line qualification, while Montenegro has an outsized 15 percent of GDP current account deficit that may be difficult to bridge with Russian tourism loss and it recently had to rescue an aluminum company. Kosovo remains the poorest with mass unemployment and poverty even with its addition to development bodies with independent recognition. In the Caucuses Armenia’s economy had “steep construction contraction” and a judicial ruling on pension changes could further dent private investor confidence against the precarious security backdrop. Azerbaijan will grow at half 2013’s 6 percent clip on oil production decline, although the sovereign wealth fund has ample assets bolstered by an inaugural external bond issue. Belarus’ growth is flat on 15 percent inflation, with foreign reserves critical at less than two months imports as President Lukashenko considers another term in 2015.
Georgia went to war with Moscow previously but will sign an EU association agreement in June after a presidential transition increased consumer confidence, the EBRD reports. The accord will ease agricultural trade barriers to allow 4 percent growth offset by diminished Russian visitor volume. Moldova is now in the revanchist geopolitical crosshairs in the Transneister strip as it presses Brussels for visa-free labor mobility with parliamentary polls approaching. In Central Asia, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are also highly reliant on remittances. Kyrgyz currency depreciation caused 5 percent inflation in Q1, and Tajik banks have steep NPL levels. Turkmenistan’s and Uzbekistan’s commodity exports have diversified to China and enabled double-digit GDP increases, as authoritarian rulers have embarked on showcase infrastructure projects that may “grind to a halt” in the Bank’s phrase with further CIS shudders.
Central America’s Central Bank Swerve
2014 May 27 by admin
Posted in: Latin America/Caribbean
With the Dominican Republic just reissuing a global bond before the President eyes re-election and Costa Rica’s new team debating fiscal and monetary policy changes the IMF in a research paper expressed reservations about regional central bank finances “negative in cash flow terms” as they try to support inflation and economic stability goals. Further balance sheet reinforcement is needed under benign conditions and shocks could pose operating and solvency risks in view of the historical record, the analysis comments. The five countries including Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua regularly intervened in commercial banks in past decades causing losses and since have moved to exchange rate-dependent inflation-targeting. Legal reforms conferred autonomy through the early 2000s but now are “stalled” in relation to appointments and terms and other standard practices adopted long ago by bigger Latin American economies, despite upgrades in oversight, lender of last-resort and payment functions. Recapitalization instruments typically carry below-market interest rates at maturities up to 50 years far beyond normal yield curves. Where legislation mandates budget transfers, implementation has been spotty with proceeds diverted for “more pressing” purposes, according to the document. Income positions have improved in recent years but no central bank is in the black, and foreign assets are up on reduced external debt especially after Nicaragua’s official cancellation. Securities outstanding are 7 percent of GDP and 80 percent are in local currency. Public sector claims are down the last decade to 10 percent of output, but aggravate negative capital value if international accounting norms were applied. Unremunerated reserve requirements help offset this weakness but reinforce financial system distortions. Over the longer-term lower inflation at home and higher returns on foreign reserves would contribute to health, but natural disasters and other setbacks could foster a “prolonged period” of inadequate resources, the Fund concludes. It finds across-the-board lags in qualitative and quantitative measures versus smaller hemispheric peers like Colombia and Peru, but omits reference to the Eastern Caribbean common central bank experience as a possible alternative. Latin America’s broader group has able technocrats in charge who have taken aggressive steps outside the wishes of nominal political masters, as in Colombia’s April interest rate hike amid national elections. They are also net creditors without need for sovereign borrowing abroad from private or bilateral-multilateral sources, with Panama the only isthmus example tied to the Federal Reserve with dollar use.
A Caribbean comparison could be more apt among the larger islands where predicaments could be relatively worse with near-defaults in Jamaica and Barbados. The former has won praise for finally sticking with its IMF program after a voluntary local bond restructuring to meet fiscal benchmarks, as growth turned positive reflected in MSCI stock market gains. With debt-GDP at 95 percent, Barbados’ government shed thousands of employees in a last-ditch move to avoid its own Fund resort, as dollar-denominated paper outperformed the EMBI through April in a bittersweet punch.
Thailand’s Clinging Colorful Shirts
2014 May 20 by admin
Posted in: Asia
Thai shares tried to stay positive as martial law was declared after Prime Minister Yingluck resigned after the powerful constitutional court found her guilty of abusing office with an advisor replacement three years ago, as she still faces criminal charges for alleged violations during the costly rice subsidy scheme. New elections remain set for end-July under threat of opposition boycott as the former commerce minister took the interim government reins and was promptly met with another round of yellow-red shirt street battles in Bangkok.
