No More Learning

The monetary authority will issue securities over the medium term to reimburse seized deposits and may explore local-currency alternatives to the dollar-rand framework as confidence is restored, which could include revival of the T-bill market. As it no longer has a lender of last resort function the finance ministry has provided an initial endowment for emergencies but a comprehensive overhaul involving recapitalization, non-core asset disposal and outside audit is still pending.

Regional and international participants may withdraw equity and management skill if indigenization is handled in a forced “destabilizing” fashion, according to the report. The current account deficit will be 20 percent of GDP, and the World Bank’s Doing Business ranking is 170 out of 180 countries with bottom marks for property rights, infrastructure and governance. External debt is unsustainable at 115 percent of national income, over half in arrears, and a complex relief strategy will have to be in place before start of a simple staff-monitored arrangement, the Fund admonished.

Central Europe’s Easy Ride Riddle
2012 October 12 by admin

Posted in: Europe
Stock markets in Hungary and Poland were up 20 percent through Q3 on the MSCI index on anticipated easing of the Eurozone debt crisis with the ECB offering conditional further support and monetary policy shifts toward resuscitating flat growth. Hungary’s central bank defied currency risk with a 25 basis point slash to combat recession as well as fiscal deficit target overshooting, as another round of IMF loan negotiations was postponed until after the mid-October annual meeting and Budapest formally responds to a letter listing outstanding issues. On higher taxes inflation has crept to 5 percent and business sentiment is at a 3-year low. The European Commission dispute over withheld cohesion funds could be revisited with official and private forecasts for budget gaps above the 3 percent of GDP Maastricht target through next year. Critics have also begun to charge official laxity through the “quantitative easing” program extending 2-year facilities for corporate borrowing which continues to slide. The Orban government’s approval reading is at 15 percent, and he insists that special levies be maintained on foreign-owned banks and industries rather than taking revenue from households and individuals. In a spat with fund giant Templeton, which is a large holder of local Treasury bills with 3-month yields at 6. 5 percent, collectors have demanded back dividend taxes, and an Asian outsourcing contractor was the latest to introduce job cuts amid the difficult cost climate. The Polish central bank stayed on hold at the October meeting despite a GDP growth downgrade to 2 percent, and a push for bigger listed state company dividends, including from insurer PZU and copper miner KGHM, to keep public debt below the constitutional limit even though needs have been pre-financed through the beginning of 2013. After defaulting on $2. 5 billion in debt construction firm Polimex won a large bid which could facilitate restructuring over the coming months, although the broader PMI is at meager 47. Prime Minister Tusk has promised to unveil a fresh reform package to mark his second term and to clarify euro entry intentions which had originally assumed a mid-decade timetable.

The Czech Republic was flat at the rear of the core trio as the ruling coalition split on fiscal austerity moves again hung in the balance after another no-confidence vote. It was first in the group clearly in recession, and export recovery remains hampered by koruna strength against the single currency. In contrast the neighboring Romanian exchange which was ahead 4 percent at end-quarter has experience unrelenting leu pressure as elections are scheduled once more after an aborted constitutional referendum and the EU-IMF backstop may be tapped in the interim. Recent missions have granted decent marks but growth is at a standstill and an attempted chemical company privatization was again challenged for lack of ease and transparency.

Local Bonds’ Evocative Evolution Story
2012 October 12 by admin

Posted in: General Emerging Markets
Although hard-currency fund inflows are well ahead this year on flight to safety and other considerations, local bonds’ asset class future is bright and solid according to JP Morgan’s latest annual guide to 35 markets. Despite volatility stoked by greenback and euro shifts domestic government and corporate issuance dominates the multitrillion-dollar emerging economy debt field and the benchmark index is up double-digits through Q3. Foreign investors hold one-fifth of local instruments at a 4 percent yield premium or 2. 5 percent inflation-adjusted over US Treasuries. The long-term appreciation trend based on the IMF’s purchasing power parity and other measures is still in place and capital inflow curbs have recently abated the research notes. Central bank currency intervention has increasingly been on both sides as a stable level is targeted and “macro prudential” steps are directed mostly to banks. EMTA statistics show local-currency at 70 percent of overall trading volume as the outstanding stock is quadruple the external sum at almost $8 trillion. The GBI-EM market size is $1. 5 trillion, as predicted gross sovereign placement will top $2 trillion this year, with China representing over half of activity. By comparison developed market issuance will be $4. 5 trillion, half from the US followed by Japan. Standard euro area commercial completion outside special programs will drop to $200 billion as emerging Europe demand struggles beyond Poland and Turkey. Among subgroups available inflation linkers mostly from Brazil come to $475 billion and corporates have expanded 20 percent the past two years to $2 trillion, three-quarters concentrated in Asia. Banks have tapped the outlet as syndicated loans have dwindled under deleveraging and regulatory causes to just $100 billion through September. A dozen domestic bond ETFs with $3. 5 billion in assets facilitate retail and institutional participation, with pension and insurance pools in developing markets themselves currently at $4. 5 trillion.

Insurance company holdings are $1 trillion larger than pensions and the Asian life sector has grown particularly fast in China, India, Korea and Taiwan. European social security schemes with $500 billion in hand have followed Latin America in establishing private defined-contribution pillars. In the latter five countries’ schemes had $650 billion in assets as of end-2011, with $400 billion in fixed-income. Uruguay has seen the most rapid increase and allocation there cannot go into equities. In Chile the AFP portfolios amount to over half of GDP, and the members in Colombia and Mexico are overweight bonds versus their class limits. In the former banks have gone on a borrowing spree at home and abroad helping the peso to lead all currencies with an 8 percent advance to the dollar despite stepped-up buying by the central bank and petroleum wealth fund. The economic growth forecast was recently raised to 4 percent on domestic demand and public investment offering reliable bonds.

South Africa’s Platinum Reputation Rupture
2012 October 9 by admin

Posted in: Africa
The Johannesburg Exchange fought to stay positive as foreign investors dumped premier mining shares as bloody confrontations and closures spread nationwide from the original Marikana site, with President Zuma warning that the standoff could again portend recession. The precious metals industry accounts for over one-tenth of GDP in direct and indirect contributions, as Q2 statistics showed the economy already missing the 3 percent growth forecast with unemployment frozen at 25 percent. Rating agencies put the sovereign on notice for a downgrade for fiscal and structural reform doubts heading into the next presidential elections, where ANC intraparty splits have played out in a more militant stance by a breakaway mineworker union and continued calls for expropriation by expelled youth-wing leader Malema, who has been accused by the government of tax and money-laundering offenses. The black economic empowerment agenda for the industry, which was subject to a voluntary charter transferring management and ownership control over time, was challenged by the initial violent protest despite the participation of indigenous executives in Lonmin’s team. The rand sold off toward 8. 5 to the dollar in the aftermath as the current account deficit could now exceed 6 percent of GDP. To maintain currency confidence the central bank was on hold at its September meeting despite inflation around 5 percent as food prices moderated. Policy drift may last through the December ANC convention as the president and his opponents focus on corralling political support, which may bring ratings demotion offsetting the country’s entry into the Citigroup benchmark world bond index. On the electoral front the ruling party has to worry about internal dissension as well as opinion survey inroads from the rival Democratic Alliance, which has won local office and begun to attract backing beyond the white minority founders. President Zuma has resisted calls for his resignation and intends to hang on through next year as many in the post-apartheid coalition seek a compromise succession candidate.

The IMF also urged that public debt be placed on a path toward 35 percent of GDP over the next five years through “rebalancing spending” as the mining employees were granted a 20 percent wage increase after the events and a new health insurance scheme is launched to cover the population with a high disease and poverty toll. Its Article IV report recommended labor market and savings mobilization changes acquiring urgency with lower export demand from Europe and China. Skill and geographic “mismatches” worsen inequality and consumer choice is limited. The Fund praised diversification across the continent while noting that banks are “heavily exposed” to home mortgage portfolio and liquidity swings. Outward liberalization of capital controls has been cautious in its view as portfolio investors brace for possible further reckless confrontation on inflow treatment.



Mexico’s Hedged Bet Hemming
2012 October 9 by admin

Posted in: Latin America/Caribbean
Mexican shares continued to lead Latam indices as officials struck another oil hedge to guard against lower prices and Banco Santander completed a successful offering in part to satisfy Eurozone crisis and Basel III calls for increased local capital cushions at foreign-owned units. The moves coincide with preparations for PRI President Perez Nieto to assume the post at year-end with an immediate agenda of labor, fiscal and Pemex reforms which will require endorsement from the conservative PAN party to pass into law. GDP growth is expected at 4 percent despite recent US export and retail sale softness as foreign manufacturers have relocated from China’s higher wage and infrastructure costs. The PMI reading is 55, and the current account should be in rough balance as almost $10 billion in FDI was registered the first half. With the peso up 7. 5 percent against the dollar bond investors have poured into the long-term 10-year plus segment with one-third ownership control. The central bank has refrained from currency intervention and changing the benchmark rate as food staples exert inflationary tendencies. It has heightened scrutiny of double-digit consumer lending growth despite a good banking industry review by S&P of asset, liquidity and profitability ratios. Homebuilders benefiting from mortgage takeoff have reported troubles which could raise the current 2. 5 percent minimal NPL number. In Brazil, a handful of small personal lenders have already gone under and in the latest Banco Cruzeiro case the government trustee could not find a buyer as bondholders were forced to accept a 50 percent recovery value. There overdue consumer credit is at 8 percent of the total as housing prices jumped 100 percent on average the past five years in Rio and Sao Paulo according to Fitch Ratings. To maintain borrowing access the Finance Ministry has begun to lift capital controls but heavy reserve use has been deployed around the 2 real per dollar corridor.

In Argentina banks have been subject to greater state interference with orders to extend $3. 5 billion to designated priorities including small companies over a three-year maturity at an interest ceiling of 15 percent. The IMF granted a 90-day extension to clean up inflation and growth statistics or face sanctions as private analysts assert that the economy is near recession on a 20-30 percent CPI rise. The equity market is the MSCI frontier laggard although bonds have gone positive on the EMBI with the announcement that reserves will again be earmarked for repayment. Chile has also seen double-digit loan expansion and the system relies on “moderate” external funding, according to S&P. Inflation is the region’s lowest at 2. 5 percent and GDP growth should be 5 percent despite slowing copper demand from China and Europe. The monetary authority has been on hold despite 10 percent peso appreciation gambling with exporter margins.

Islamic Bonds Asia-Gulf Gulp
2012 October 4 by admin

Posted in: General Emerging Markets
While Asian and Gulf equity markets have carried disappointment this year, the Islamic sukuk bonds in and between both regions are at an “inflection point” according to a Standard & Poor’s report at $75 billion through July, $10 billion less than in all of 2011 when the respective Malaysia and GCC totals were $65 billion and $20 billion. According to Malaysia’s Securities Commission public and corporate instruments outstanding are almost $150 billion, with the latter dominated by quasi-sovereign like the Khazanah wealth fund and mortgage company Cagamas. 165 dedicated unit trusts were registered with a net asset value of $10 billion. An Islamic ETF is listed on the Kuala Lumpur exchange, and dozens of shariah advisers have been approved with local and foreign domiciles. The S&P paper points out that Gulf infrastructure issuers have been “crossing the figurative border” with ringitt placements from Abu Dhabi and Bahrain. Saudi Arabia has led the area sukuk pack to date with $9 billion in activity, followed by the UAE and Qatar. Average yields measured by benchmark global indices are at a post-crisis low of 3. 5 percent, and the standard-setting Accounting and Auditing Organization has forged bilateral compliance for 80 percent of available paper. The structure, with physical collateral backing guaranteed payments, is well suited for water and power projects estimated at hundreds of billions of dollars over the next decade. Qatar must invest $65 billion to host the World Cup in 2022, and Indonesia has a $200 billion electricity and transport program set though 2015. A restructuring history especially in Dubai and Kuwait offers a precedent for future workouts despite lingering acrimony. In the $10 billion creditor dispute with Dubai Holding several banks have demanded international arbitration and rejected negotiating proposals. Asia is now the GCC’s top trade partner taking 40 percent of energy exports, and Chinese and Korean telecom and natural resource firms in particular have expanded FDI. Increasingly bond maturities are stretching beyond 10 years as previously active project lenders pare exposure under Eurozone crisis and Basel III edicts.

The survey noted Malaysia world dominance with 40 percent of the Islamic-style fixed-income space over the last 5-year strategy, while the 2020 blueprint foresees a $1 trillion market. It sees Indonesia as a distant regional second despite its far larger population as the framework still does not allow sales under beneficial ownership and pilot sovereign efforts have just begun while corporate rules are lacking. Saudi leadership in the GCC could be consolidated by activity expected under the new mortgage law, with over 1 million additional homes needed by mid- decade to satisfy demand according to officials. The agency authors have assigned ratings to a dozen transactions, and are “optimistic” about the globalization of Islamic finance even with the traditional ambivalence over exchange rate and banking and securities industry directions.

The Sub-Sahara’s Bond Breakthrough Bid
2012 October 4 by admin

Posted in: Africa
As the African Development Bank carried out bond data and technical initiatives based on the ADB’s post-Asia crisis model, Nigeria and Zambia were the latest to mark watershed moves with respective entry into the JP Morgan benchmark local index and a global issue debut. Nigerian Treasuries will comprise only 1 percent of the roster but the addition may bring a $1 billion inflow into the $35 billion market, and the 10-year yield dropped 4 percent to 12 percent and the naira firmed to 155 to the dollar as inclusion goes into effect in October. The Goodluck administration may also launch its first sovereign offering since winning election, and corporates such as oil group Afren which have appeared may enhance their profile. Net public debt is only 15 percent of GDP but bank and fiscal consolidation setbacks could worsen the load, according to S&P, which assigns a B+/B grade with positive outlook. Ratings agencies regularly question double-digit credit growth and capital adequacy overestimation at the surviving post-crisis banks, and reiterate governance and security constraints and per-capita income and infrastructure weakness offsetting oil-driven current account and foreign reserve boosts. Inflation persists over 10 percent with the central bank holding rates. Rumors continue to circulate that the deadly Boko Haram will turn from religious to commercial targets and focus attacks on Lagos and Abuja. The Finance Ministry nonetheless has pressed on with a $1 billion sovereign wealth fund startup to succeed the excess crude account depleted by misappropriation and poor management, and in a separate bond pilot has laid the groundwork for an Islamic sukuk. Zambia’s 10-year $750 million placement got $12 billion in orders at a yield below Spain’s at 5. 6 percent despite FX restrictions which mandate local transactions in kwacha. The government maintains threats to outlaw the opposition party and has doubled copper royalties as it prepares a general overhaul of the mining regime after several violent labor confrontations with Chinese executives.

Kenya, which has been the continent’s frontier stock exchange leader, has grabbed fixed-income attention after obtaining an offshore syndicated loan despite the 45 percent debt-GDP ratio and a record 350 basis point rate slash to 13 percent on lower food price inflation. The shilling stayed firm at 85 to the dollar despite additional jitters as Muslims rioted after the killing of a renowned cleric and tribal infighting over land rights resumed in the stretch toward next year’s elections. The assassination in Mombasa reinforced complaints about minority discrimination and the lack of development and anti-terror aid in the city as civil war rivalry spills over from Somalia. On the infrastructure front the state power company received a World Bank $200 million facility for upgrades and eventual connection to the neighboring Southern African grid experiencing its own network knocks.

The World Bank’s State Finance Fiends
2012 October 1 by admin

Posted in: General Emerging Markets
In its inaugural Global Financial Development Report released on the fourth anniversary of Lehman Brothers’ failure the World Bank examined the government’s post-crisis role in promoting competition, regulation, infrastructure and stability with a mixed scorecard for developing economies. It points out that less advanced countries allow more scope for state intervention amid lagging institutional frameworks and that banking and securities executives and policymakers remain at odds over the rationale and results of emergency actions. Globally the worst-hit systems since 2008 have common features, including broader capital definitions, and lower loan provision, audit and data standards. In addition to ranking the overall sector and credit and capital market components across a depth, inclusion, efficiency and safety matrix the work cites best practice examples in the categories from emerging regions. In Brazil corporate borrower is more developed than retail information, South Africa has consumer protection against unfair access and privacy moves, and Romania has adopted EU directives for mortgage offerings. In China, Russia and Mexico state development banks were ordered to provide liquidity lines to private participants, aid specific industries, and extend guarantees and trade finance to exporters and small firms. Their lending pattern has not been as pro-cyclical, but has also “worsened intermediation” with poor governance and risk-management records. Insurance schemes have been open-ended and failed to reach designated beneficiaries. Central banks injected funds to keep the payments network and over-the-counter derivatives activity functioning but stricter collateral and transparency treatment will obviate such future resort especially as swap transactions are directed toward open exchanges and central clearinghouses. These shifts are also important for settlement modernization in emerging securities markets which has struggled to match growth, according to the reference.

Through August debt fund flows of $32 billion have been almost double equity ones tracked by EPFR numbers, with two-thirds going to hard-currency versions. However local paper continues to dominate trading with a 70 percent share concentrated in Brazil, Mexico, and Russia, EMTA’s Q2 roundup reveals. Volume was down 17 percent on an annual basis for the period reflecting a “buy and hold” tendency amid the current Eurozone mess as well as decreased inventory for US dealers in particular under forthcoming Dodd-Frank provision representing another form of state influence. In Eurobonds corporate turnover at over one-tenth the total is approaching sovereigns, and CDS has also fallen with bans on “naked shorts” and other public and private rule changes, including ISDA modifications after Greece’s restructuring exercise. On the share side the BRICs have taken half of $17 billion in inflows despite uninspiring index outcomes, and ETFs are now their main conduit. Even where traditional vehicles recorded outflows as in Poland, Romania and the UAE the exchange-traded product moved in the opposite direction under a range of investor preferences often testing the integrity and sustainability of the post-Lehman innovations.

Central America’s Serial Standby Alerts
2012 October 1 by admin

Posted in: Latin America/Caribbean
Central American bonds, which feature in the EMBI, remained stymied by hesitant progress in restoring IMF programs after immediate post-crisis precautionary lines expired, especially with lagging fiscal and monetary policy fallbacks compared with larger Southern neighbors. In the Dominican Republic the new Danilo Medina team has continued its predecessor’s refusal to raise electricity tariffs as the state-owned utility owes private generators over $1 billion which will be raised in local debt markets. The oil import bill is again steep and improved collection and anti-theft measures are unmet conditions pivotal to resuming the Fund relationship, which is also endangered by tougher immigration and trade stances toward Haiti where a fresh prime minister from the business community has assumed office. El Salvador is out of compliance on fiscal missteps with its arrangement expiring March of next year as it prepares to launch an $800 million Eurobond to enable redemption of short-term Treasury bills. Debt/GDP in the dollarized economy is 10 percent over the area average of 40 percent and tax revenue must be raised from the 15 percent level in the next budget to reactivate the standby. Holders of the 2023 global bond can exercise a put option at par before year-end with few takers expected at the current 115 price. Only 2 percent growth is forecast through 2013 which could worsen with US slowdown and further criminal gang violence before presidential elections where the rightist Arena party may reclaim power after recent congressional inroads. Foreign investment has preferred safer and tech-oriented Costa Rica which notched first half 5 percent GDP expansion as the government got approval for a 10-year $4 billion external bond pipeline initially to cover an imminent January maturity. A high-magnitude earthquake will aggravate the fiscal gap already at 6 percent of output and the central bank does not intend to change the existing currency band to the dollar. In 2014 president Chinchilla will leave the post as attempts at spending reform have already been defeated several times.

Guatemala is still debating whether to approach the Fund again as it prepares a mix of domestic and foreign bond issuance around $750 billion in the latest budget. Official debt is low and US credit and remittance flows support the balance of payments, but the country has become a hemispheric drug war flash point drawing in unemployed youth. President Perez Molina won on a law and order and business climate overhaul platform where critics note delays. Governance concerns are more serious in Nicaragua where donors may withhold aid on Ortega executive assertions of control over the courts and other institutions. A $25 million claim from the HIPC-related commercial debt buyback five years ago is outstanding and Venezuelan oil collaboration faces political and health tests of aging advocates.

Iran’s Punitive Transaction Costs
2012 September 27 by admin

Posted in: MENA
The Tehran stock exchange had its worst monthly showing and was flat for the year as a tougher round of international trade and financial sanctions took hold, slashing oil output to a 20-year low and resulting in a record fine in the US for dedicated emerging bank Standard Chartered for uncovered violations. As the vise went into effect in July monthly petroleum production fell to 3 million barrels as customers scrambled to find alternative supply from Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iraq. A small Chinese lender was caught in the net for doing business with the regime, as UAE institutions with longstanding cross-strait links such as Noor Islamic Bank began to pull back. Regulators in New York and Washington now can pull the licenses and ban correspondent dealings with any intermediary that maintains even indirect connection through the worldwide SWIFT messaging network under the latest legislative proposals. Stanchart had long been under investigation by state and federal agencies for so-called name stripping to mask client identity, and its exposure followed illicit flow disclosures at HSBC and ING on a lesser scale. In 2011 40 percent of crude went to European buyers that along with shippers and insurers are under prohibition, and India, Japan and Turkey have also cut imports. Higher global prices have not made up for the volume fall with revenue off 25 percent, aggravating the hard currency shortage under the multi-tier system which favors food and other essential items. The rial has dropped over 50 percent against the dollar and official inflation is above 25 percent. According to the central bank, system liquidity was up 6. 5 percent in the first quarter of the Iranian calendar year and it will respond with large bond sterilization operations. On the equity market auto listings have been battered by a 35 percent sales slump, while the metals and mining sectors are also down despite p/e ratios around 5. Notwithstanding the sentiment, a $1. 5 billion refinery privatization IPO went ahead in June, although other company blocks were rejected.

Israeli shares likewise fell on confrontation odds as the central bank head acknowledged crisis preparation in the event of military action against nuclear facilities. The centrist party Kadima quit the government in a dispute over religious student army service and the timeline for a strike may be influenced by calls for early elections. With GDP growth unlikely to reach the 3 percent forecast, the benchmark interest rate was reduced 25 basis points and the fiscal deficit target was raised. The shekel slid to 3. 9 to the dollar on the shifts as foreign investors continue to shun local bonds after imposition of withholding tax. Family-owned conglomerates are experiencing their own debt woes as leverage and a popular divestiture push prompt restructurings in another adversarial arena.



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Brazil’s Competitiveness Fix Figments
2012 September 27 by admin

Posted in: Latin America/Caribbean
Brazilian shares stayed at the rear of main Latin markets, with utilities joining banks in beatings, as President Dilma Rousseff ordered business and consumer electricity cost reductions as part of an overall infrastructure modernization program targeting $60 billion in near-term public-private projects. Power firms were already reeling from bond defaults as financial institutions have long been under the gun to lower borrowing rates in line with the benchmark Selic slash to just over 7 percent despite worsening arrears. With anemic demand at home and abroad keeping GDP growth at 1. 5 percent as food and services push inflation toward 5 percent, supply-side reform has been prominent on the policy agenda with proposed administrative and tax streamlining. China appetite has offered a mixed reading for iron ore which constitutes one-quarter of commodity exports, as the new leadership at giant Vale prepared investors for a price around $90/ton and future operations rationalization. In offering relief to workers through other means the administration has held firm on resisting civil servant wage demands which could jeopardize the 3 percent of GDP primary budget surplus, while also hinting that the goal is flexible. On the exchange rate the course has also shifted to two-sided intervention to preserve a 2 real per dollar zone, which provided support for an oversubscribed fresh sovereign bond in August. The debt market which must mobilize long-term funding for the consecutive World Cup and Olympics gatherings through mid-decade was criticized in a recent IMF working paper for the 3-year average maturity of government paper and the small corporate size of 10 percent of GDP also of short duration and “limited buyer base and issuer diversification. ” 90 percent of the instruments are indexed with scant secondary trading by predominantly bank holders. Securitized activity for mortgages and trade receivables is expanding under the FIDC program and infrastructure bonds could benefit from new tax exemptions. However prime names will continue to spurn the channel with the availability of discount credit from state lender BNDES, which accounts for one-tenth of the financial system and has doubled its balance sheet the past five years. The analysis points out that big users can access alternative capital sources and that the gap it was founded to fill is now with midsize enterprises and as an anchor partner on domestic and foreign mega-deals.

Mexico, in contrast, has topped the large exchanges with a promised lighter official touch toward the currency, credit and energy markets as PRI President Perez Nieto readies for the post with near-party majorities in both houses. Economic growth could triple Brazil’s on solid internal and US support, and the outgoing Calderon administration may enact long-sought labor rule changes. Both equity and fixed-income players were relieved when giant Cemex won creditor approval for another restructuring, as relative standing in the cross-border rivalry looks to be cast in concrete.

Tunisia’s Jasmine Fragrance Fumes
2012 September 24 by admin

Posted in: MENA
As Egypt completed presidential elections and moved to secure billions of dollars in bilateral and multilateral lines to address its post-revolution economic emergency extending MSCI outperformance, Tunisian shares were flat through August in the run-up to polls early next year following interim government disputes over policy direction to tackle “urgent reform,” in the IMF’s view. After 2011’s recession Q1 statistics showed 5 percent GDP growth on better tourism and FDI on inflation above that figure on higher food costs. The external position, after a 7 percent of GDP current account deficit, was fragile as reserves were $6. 5 billion or 3 months’ imports, and on deficit spending public debt is at 45 percent of output, raising flags for a May sovereign ratings downgrade. The central bank head, who was a long-serving World Bank executive, quit his post under relentless demands for monetary easing to spur credit and employment which translated into benchmark rate and reserve requirement reductions and refinancing equal to 6 percent of GDP, while headline nonperforming loans held at almost 15 percent of the total under classification forbearance. The authority supplied massive liquidity and also mounted $700 million in exchange rate intervention though April for a minor depreciation against the euro. A benign scenario where $3 billion in outside budget support materializes and the European and Libyan situations stabilize could bring 2-3 percent growth this year, but bank solvency must still be addressed “adequately and rapidly,” according to the Fund’s Article IV report. With wage hikes and unadjusted energy subsidies the fiscal gap will exceed 7 percent of GDP, and the analysis urged tighter monetary policy and greater institutional independence and statistical reference in establishing targets. In the banking sector recapitalization of state-owned units has begun but measures must go further in unraveling the web of interest and credit controls accumulated over decades of the previous regime. Capital markets are paltry at only 2 percent of the economy with banks dominating stock exchange listings and pension fund investors and a bond yield curve absent. The limited financial depth constrains startup company potential for educated youth as former industry allocations went to low-skill manufacturing and services. Outside Tunis and other major cities access is even narrower foster regional income disparities with large rural poverty incidence.

Libya which just had its own landmark post-Gadhafi legislative elections in July won by the hodgepodge National Forces Alliance has reopened the oil taps and 25 percent growth this year will recover half 2011’s contraction as inflation also steadies at 10 percent and the dinar stays in the 1. 25 to the dollar range. Restrictions on deposit and currency withdrawals will be lifted soon as the system there looks to an initial commercialization phase by global as opposed to Green Book standards.

Japanese Banks’ Asia Apparitions
2012 September 24 by admin

Posted in: Asia
A decade after pulling back on heavy regional crisis losses, major Japanese banks are back in force with double-digit expansion in regional syndicated loans replacing European backers, despite their own credit downgrades on domestic portfolio pressures. Mitsubishi, Mizuho and SFMG have been matched on the securities side by big houses like Daiwa and Nomura, and retail investment trusts that have poured $60 billion into emerging market hard and local currency bonds worldwide mainly in Brazil. Separate overlay funds have involved plays on the real, rupiah, lira and other units and the giant government pension system with $1. 5 trillion in assets plans dedicated product allocation to emerging market equities for its conservative saver base. The Japanese Bank for International Cooperation has itself gotten into capital markets with a guarantee program for yen-denominated “samurai” debt issuance alongside its traditional role supporting direct investment and exports in developing economies, where the geographic emphasis has shifted to Africa and newer destinations. In Asian infrastructure and project finance only HSBC and Standard Chartered from the UK have arranged more and their positions may now be in jeopardy from the Eurozone crisis spillover and violations of Iran and money-laundering guidelines found by US regulators and under investigation in other jurisdictions.
These directions take shape as loan growth at home barely budges with 2 percent GDP growth again in the cards as post-reconstruction spending wears off a year after the earthquake-tsunami. The outlays were underwritten by special bonds, but with gross public debt topping 200 percent of GDP Prime Minister Noda won opposition acquiescence to a gradual rise in sales tax in return for elections likely to be scheduled soon after Tokyo hosts the annual IMF-World Bank gathering next month. The Liberal Democrat Party is widely predicted to return to power on incumbent dissatisfaction, as the ruling DPJ itself splinters on fiscal and personality differences. The massive government debt poses large financial system risks, according to the central bank and IMF, which each pointed out the solvency and valuation impacts of minor basis point swings. Foreign ownership has likewise jumped to over 8 percent of the $13 trillion total across the yield curve as other developed market returns are paltry and yen appreciation remains intact.

The 2011 US Treasury cross-border securities survey showed $125 billion going into short and long-term holdings, quadruple the amount of next-ranking neighbor South Korea. There industrial exports have slumped and Samsung in addition took a huge stock market blow on losing a phone copyright case to Apple. Privatization has been suspended on poor appetite and deal controversies heading into December presidential elections, with household debt of 150 percent of GDP weighing on voters. Their attention has been diverted as well by a historic dispute with Japan over an island chain which has yoked burgeoning commercial alliances with nationalist sentiment.





The Andes’ Reshaped Peaks
2012 September 17 by admin

Posted in: Latin America/Caribbean
Peruvian shares looked to stem losses as President Humala’s popularity fell to less than majority approval prompting another cabinet reshuffle which spared Finance Minister Castilla. Community and worker standoffs at mining projects have sparked violence and operating delays, although the 6 percent GDP growth forecast remains intact to lead the region on good agriculture and construction performance. With inflation within the 4 percent range on food price pullback the central bank eased export credit reserve requirements in July and has continued to selectively intervene to keep the sol within 2. 6-2. 7 to the dollar. The policy rate was kept at 4. 25 percent and foreign ownership of local debt tops the EM universe at almost 60 percent even as external bond positions have recently been underweight. A chief cause for the latter has been preference for adjacent Colombia, pushing EMBI spreads to 150 basis points as FDI in oil and metals soared 25 percent in the first half to $9. 5 billion. Resulting currency appreciation has activated a daily $20 million smoothing pool which authorities supplement with regular verbal signals as they reversed monetary course with a 25 basis point benchmark decrease. The shift came as the peso neared the 1,750 mark hurting exporters and slumping consumption brought GDP growth below 5 percent. Financial services expansion may soon slow as well as regulators issue warnings, with Bancolombia ADRs in New York feeling the backlash. With the US free trade pact now in effect, FARC rebels have reappeared with headline attacks on infrastructure and expatriate employees that may foster additional near-term caution, as paramilitary amnesty and fighter demobilization efforts show uneven results. President Santos’s bid for better relations with Venezuelan counterpart Chavez has also stirred controversy as his business and media crackdown endures amid rumors of terminal health heading into October’s election battle with opposition candidate Capriles. He vows to “pulverize” the challenger after receiving consecutive rounds of cancer therapy, as state-dominated television routinely disparages him and the voting commission bars Miami exiles from casting ballots there.

Opinion surveys are roughly split, and the incumbent has resorted again to hefty fiscal stimulus to solidify support with the deficit above 10 percent of GDP. Public debt has more than doubled the past five years as internal and external borrowing is used for pension, housing food and other initiatives to supplement oil proceeds. The government petroleum monopoly PDVSA will issue close to $10 billion in dollar bonds this year to as well satisfy currency demand through the official SITME system. It has started to line up supplemental financing from joint venture partners and Asian development lenders as runaway domestic liquidity, with money supply up over 50 percent, embeds hyperinflation with 5 percent economic growth toward a potential burst of ballot hyperventilation.

Vietnam’s Pinched Wealth Promoters
2012 September 12 by admin

Posted in: Asia
Vietnamese shares halved their 20 percent frontier index gain in the immediate wake of the arrest of a business tycoon whose interests include ownership of the twenty-year old Asia Commercial Bank also held by Standard Chartered, which received central bank liquidity after a brief depositor run. Specifically he was accused of operating unlicensed investment firms as officials try to clamp down on irregular gold, currency and stock trading which have invited factional infighting in the Communist party leadership as Prime Minister Dung abandons his original hands-off economic approach. Executives at shipbuilder Vinashin got lengthy prison terms for mismanagement after the conglomerate defaulted in 2010 with $4. 5 billion in debt in violation of internal and external controls, and the lavish lifestyles of the connected elite have prompted a backlash as GDP growth lags the previous 7-8 percent China-like norm. Bad loans, mainly from state-owned units to directed borrowers, reached one-tenth the total in June, and were concentrated in property, securities and non-core enterprise activities. Moody’s reaffirmed its negative outlook on the banking sector and the IMF calculates the recapitalization cost at 5 percent of GDP. Foreign access is capped at 30 percent of equity, and while the ceiling may be waived in future deals outright privatization of key lenders is not under consideration, especially in view of recent entrepreneurial overreach. Policy rates have come down 500 basis points as inflation dipped to 5 percent, but the credit mess will overwhelm the double-digit target for money supply expansion. The budget deficit goal of near 5 percent of output may also be missed on higher spending, although funding is facilitated by the 2-year government bond yield now at 9 percent. The trade gap has improved on lower imports to join weaker demand for commodity and electronics products in Europe and China. The mogul’s apprehension and bank crisis speculation hammered the prices of US-listed ETFs which are a major conduit, despite progress toward a bilateral free trade agreement under the auspices of the trans-Pacific Partnership to be pushed by Washington at the September APEC summit in Russia.

In contrast with the IPO lethargy in Vietnam and the rest of the region Malaysia has completed several high-profile transactions that may help set the stage for elections due by early next year. Domestic demand has been aided by civil servant and pensioner income hikes, which along with fuel subsidies will keep the fiscal deficit at 5 percent of GDP. VAT introduction has been delayed and good oil has offset electronics export performance, although both public and private debt is up sharply where foreign banks and investors are active. Their government securities holdings have doubled to 40 percent of international reserves in a transformation not formally cited among the Administration’s economic ambitions.

Private Equity’s Affected Africa Affirmation
2012 September 12 by admin

Posted in: Africa
In a paper titled “Embracing the Lion” the African Venture Capital Association and boutique firm Avanz highlight the post-BRIC frontier case, while acknowledging the lagging performance and depth of public equity markets for exit. The document cites low entry costs and penetration at less than 1 percent of regional GDP within the potential universe of 400,000 companies. Over the next five years African economic growth at 5. 5 percent will be double the advanced world’s, and better political stability and commodity and infrastructure management should support the trend. 80 percent of the continent has enacted business reforms, according to the World Bank, and inflation, current account and external debt indicators have all improved markedly the past decade. Demographic patterns including urban and labor force growth will drive middle class creation as education and health strides also raise living standards. FDI was $55 billion in 2010 and over 150 dedicated funds with almost $35 billion in assets have closed since 2002, with the majority in the small $200 million range. In the past five years fundraising has been only 5 percent of the EM total with 2011 bringing in $1. 3 billion, and pan-African vehicles such as from Kingdom Zephyr, Aureos and Emerging Capital Partners have dominated the landscape. Big global players like Carlyle have announced launches and new independent competitors also inaugurated 15 funds last year. Since 2005 managers have invested more than they raised, in contrast with unallocated cash in other regions. The study adds that local pension funds are boosting commitments to the asset class, with Nigeria and South Africa having respective pools of $15 billion and $250 billion. South Africa’s Venture Capital Association put the total at near $15 billion in 2010 at the portfolio cap of 5 percent which was subsequently doubled. Half of funds follow a generalist strategy while the remainder are single or multi-industry specific. Services, chiefly IT and telecoms, have been the most popular targets along with mining projects.

In South Africa the private equity rate of return the past decade at 23 percent has far outstripped the Johannesburg Exchange’s 14 percent. Development finance institutions, like the World Bank’s IFC, have been major fund investors and report similar results. 2011 exits came to $1. 2 billion and ten mainly trade sales have been completed in 2012 through May. The “shallow talent pool” at the company and GP level remains an obstacle to exposure, but the return of the African diaspora to inject entrepreneurship and expertise is a positive signpost. Although public markets are weak “liquidity pockets” in Lagos and Nairobi can be identified as new profit realization outlets as maturity and investment-grade prospects foster a tamer climate, it concludes.

China’s Inward Investment Inversions
2012 September 10 by admin

Posted in: Asia
Chinese stocks stayed lethargic after authorities blamed the European crisis for a 35 percent decline in FDI to $65 billion through July. The setback came on the heels of flat export growth and presumed hot money outflows sending the capital account into deficit, and an EMPEA report charting a two-thirds fall in first half private equity fund-raising to $4 billion. A dozen funds were closed accounting for less than one-quarter the total for the period versus the first half in 2011. Yuan-denominated vehicles were shunned as depreciation against the dollar set in and “challenging exit and regulation” could drive Asia strategy more regionally, the group commented. Emerging Europe picked up the slack with a $2. 5 billion haul concentrated in Poland and Turkey, as the global total hit $17 billion through June compared with almost $40 billion for all of last year. Asian markets continue to absorb 40 percent of deals, but volume jumped double digits in Brazil and the MENA and Sub-Sahara Africa regions. Smaller transactions were preferred as the $100-million plus segment was off one-third. Five of the fifteen biggest ones were in the private investment in public equity (PIPE) category which has gained prominence. Beijing, after raising the qualified foreign investor quota to $80 billion on the Shanghai exchange and relaxing applicant experience and size criteria, has fast-tracked approvals, and the securities commission has moved to lower taxes and delist inactive shares to further lure buyers. However the index is flat with the average company p/e ratio just over 10 on a 2 percent industrial profit plunge through June. Retail account openings are off sharply as representatives circulated an on-line petition to indefinitely suspend IPOs which have poorly performed. Banks have noticeably lagged and are trading at single-digit valuations as monthly credit allocation eases and non-performing portfolios rise. To meet the 11. 5 percent of assets capital adequacy threshold, the state-controlled giants still must mobilize equity and Bank of Communications, with the Finance Ministry and Social Security Fund as major shareholders, proceeded in August with a select institutional investor placement.

2012 GDP growth is now put in the 8 percent range with the PMI reading poised at 50 as the proxy electricity generation number has barely budged. New residential property under construction was down almost 15 percent through July, and retail sales gains flagged. Hopes for a resumed infrastructure push to sustain momentum into the October Communist Party leadership switch were buoyed with planning agency go-ahead for 1500 projects including again in the debt-laden railway system. The separate residential housing campaign has not met targets, and provinces have launched their own building programs to backstop central schemes that may not materialize. Bank reserve requirement cuts have stalled even as inflation dips below 2 percent on agitated investor expectations.

Latin Defaults’ Repeated Loops
2012 September 10 by admin

Posted in: Latin America/Caribbean
As Latin America continues to garner notice for remaining outside the global economic fear epicenter, S&P issued a report showing it accounted for half the 15 emerging market defaults this year, with Brazilian bank and Belize sovereign fights now souring investor attitudes. The speculative-grade non-payment rate was 2 percent for the universe in July, and the region has a dozen ‘weakest links” with B- or lower ratings and negative outlooks with less than 40 percent of followed companies high-grade. The negative bias rose but was skewed by policy risk reflected in Argentina’s expropriation of energy company YPF. LAC has been responsible for over one-fifth of the near $350 billion in global placement through the first seven months this year, and outside Mexico the main export partners are in the Eurozone or other developing economies. According to the Institute for International Finance’s lending surveys conditions remain positive and are aided by domestic consumer demand as an available backstop which can be bolstered by government fiscal and monetary responses. Brazilian utilities have led the recent default wave, and Cemex remains a “weak link” even as creditors agreed to another refinancing after the 2009 crisis deal. Other names in that category include Jamaica’s National Commercial Bank and metal producers in Argentina and Venezuela. Latin American GDP growth will be 3. 6 percent this year, twice the Caribbean’s pace. Exports often represent one-quarter of output and crude petroleum is one-tenth of sales abroad. The Eurozone was the source of 40 percent of FDI, one-third from Spain, and China has jumped to the top ranks as a commodity buyer and project sponsor. The study cites a trend toward resource nationalization in the Andean zone and elsewhere that could reduce inflows at a time when countries must again marshal “countercyclical” tools against slipping industrial indicators worldwide.

Belize’s 2029 “Superbond” went into initial default against this background as officials claimed they “could not afford” a $3 million August payment as the coupon increased from 6 percent to 8. 5 percent under the 5-year old previous restructuring. The Creditor Committee, headed by Greylock Capital, expressed outrage at the par and discount exchange options offered amounting to 45 percent principal reductions for the latter after receiving assurance from the Barrow administration of its “consensual” intent. A sticking point in the negotiations is resolution of the liabilities of utilities nationalized since the original accord which are a major burden at 20 percent of GDP which may affect capacity to pay. Secondary prices dropped to the 30 cents level on the sudden hard line stance, which has also upset bondholders in the Banco Cruzeiro workout overseen by Brazil’s central bank after its June seizure. 90 percent acceptance is needed for a deposit protection fund buyback offer valued in the 45 cent range versus the 60 hedge funds envision in a court cross-claim.

Sovereign Ratings’ Convoluted Convergence Convocation
2012 September 4 by admin

Posted in: General Emerging Markets
The relative developing-industrial market government re-rating in debt repayment ability over time to overlapping agency grades and instrument spreads has been summarized by JP Morgan’s periodic comprehensive asset class update also suggesting intersection in previously distinct political and social indicators. It finds that less than 20 percent of global GDP has AAA status compared with half in 2007 after a “torrent” of developed country downgrades especially in Europe, while EM sovereigns had over 180 upgrades for the period. The latter and fallen Eurozone members have the same BBB in the “jammed” space that includes Ireland, Italy and Spain along with Brazil, Indonesia, and Russia. Over the past 5 years advanced economies’ debt burden has increased by 35 percent, which has been the steady public sector ratio to output for the emerging universe. In 2012 Indonesia, Latvia and Uruguay were promoted to investment grade, while the Mideast and Europe regions have moved in the opposite direction. Most components of the 3 major local, external and corporate bond indices have reached the high-quality threshold, and the US top-grade and EMU benchmarks are only slightly ahead. The work points out that the gap may persist with divergent scores on institutional and governance categories but that they are likewise narrowing and post-crisis slippage has come more from established capitalist democracies. Asia represents one-third of the ten “doing business” leaders on the World Bank’s list, while France and Germany rank behind. The Transparency International average is half the developed market 7. 2 but Iceland, Greece, Italy, Austria and the UK showed outsize deterioration, while peripheral Europe generally tumbled on freedom and openness readings. Social inclusion as measured by the Bertelsmann Transformation Index’s poverty, inequality and safety net elements displays overall gains except for the poorest economies, although over 50 countries present notable political risks with a crowded election calendar over the coming months.

Big sovereign wealth funds in Asia and the Gulf also disclose more with assets under management across the spectrum estimated at near $5 trillion. Their holdings exceed hedge funds and private equity and are about half of official foreign exchange reserves, according to the analysis. The top ten control 80 percent of the pool and reflect commodity and trade inflow accumulations that may slow toward mid-decade, as they face additional demands for domestic rather than cross-border allocation for infrastructure and financial sector support. Long-term “stabilization” versions as classified by the IMF retain 90 percent fixed-income preference which should directly translate into further EM exposure as domestic pension and insurance providers also expand. Latin private pension accounts amount to $650 billion and Europe is fostering second pillar schemes as Asia’s life insurance industry half in mainland China and Taiwan deploys almost $2. 5 trillion in savings for regional bond longevity.

Argentina’s Stalking Stagflation Stagger
2012 September 4 by admin

Posted in: Latin America/Caribbean
Argentine President Fernandez declared a “debt-free” day as the bonds issued from forced bank deposit “pesofication” a decade ago were paid off, as stocks remained down almost 50 percent as the worst MSCI member on a renewed capital control push in that direction and economic stagnation. Official statistics show monthly output falling in the aftermath of drought and restricted Brazil trade as inflation verges on double-digits as compared with private estimates in the 25 percent band. Domestic food costs have spiked and currency depreciation on a faster crawl elevates input expenses and erodes purchasing power. The parallel market has the peso 50 percent weaker than the formal rate just under 5 to the dollar. The primary fiscal balance registers a minor deficit, and the agricultural export tax may go to 40 percent to bring in revenue despite recent reform of corn and soybean production quotas which have long angered farmers. A single permit policy will benefit food giants like Bunge with large operations, and is timed to meet rising world demand reinforced by extreme weather patterns. A previous move to hike the levy sank the president’s popularity to her first term low, and she has also alienated the main labor federation where a wing has split off in protest of real wage lags. Its head accused the government of “looking down on workers” and insisted on representation in the cabinet after organizing a big truckers’ strike. The body endorsed the state takeover of oil firm YPF with the stipulation that layoffs not ensue under the ownership change. A framework for the energy sector was subsequently proposed that will subject private company tariff and investment plans to regulatory approval. Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim converted a loan to partners to an equity stake and other non-Europeans may join the venture as Spain’s Repsol takes its seizure to international arbitration. At the World Bank’s ICSID the country has lost cases but refused to pay awards as the tribunal lacks enforcement capacity. Italian retail bondholders who did not accept defaulted sovereign bond exchanges are pursuing action in that form traditionally reserved for direct investment disputes. In New York holdout funds have won ongoing judgments in their favor and may eventually collect with a novel interpretation of the “pari passu” clause in instrument documentation to block current external debt servicing.

The YPF episode and uneven fiscal adjustment path have also highlighted federal-provincial divisions. Most of the latter run budget deficits and borrow from the central government for 40 percent of debt outstanding. A 2010 program reduced the burden of past obligations as many localities failed to meet the financial ratios contained in a 2004 responsibility law. Buenos Aires province at the center is under stress but has new issuance plans both at home and abroad where fat yields could compensate for the thinner commercial base.

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Egypt’s Modest Morsi Mission Mobilization
2012 August 30 by admin

Posted in: MENA
In an early gesture to reassert civilian supremacy over the military welcomed by investors with good bond auction and stock market results, new Muslim Brotherhood president Morsi demoted the long-serving Defense Minister and army chief of staff to advisers, after keeping technocrats tapped by the previous regime in key economic posts. Prime Minister Qandil is a water expert with an extensive record working with development lenders whose assistance is vital to modernization and domestic and external deficit financing. His team has resumed contact with the IMF on a $3 billion-plus initial loan and received installments of long-promised multi-billion dollar inflows from Saudi Arabia and Qatar after foreign reserves halved to under $15 billion over the post-Mubarak period through July. According to Fund statistics, only half that sum is in actual hard currency with the remainder in gold and securities. The central bank replied that the latest monthly outflow will stabilize after Eurobond and Paris Club debt repayments, as official aid and selective cross-border business deals like a Mobinil recent share sale pick up. The pound has fallen less than 5 percent against the dollar the past year and a half and authorities may relent in allowing greater depreciation to further replenish reserves which must also cover $4 billion in dollar-denominated Treasury bill commitments due in coming months for the 10 percent of GDP budget hole. One-quarter of state spending will go to interest payments under the draft blueprint, and the monetary authority has quadrupled its claims on the government as commercial banks hesitate to raise exposure at 15 percent yields after ratings agency institution and industry downgrades. Moody’s predicts an NPL load toward 20 percent of portfolios by end-2013 as another asset side hit while foreign parents such as France’s Societe Generale may also withdraw local lines.

Inflation had been a rare positive sign in dipping to single-digits, but wheat import prices may again skyrocket with bad crops in the US, Russia and Australia from extreme weather. Subsidy allocations have already doubled absent a repeat of Moscow’s ban as in the 2010 drought. GDP growth will be a sluggish 1-2 percent this calendar year, with the tourism minister expecting only slight improvement and Suez Canal revenue up less than 5 percent on flat global trade. GCC remittances are steady even if members have yet to fully meet funding and project pledges, including for energy development. Shortages persist with the Sinai gas pipeline regularly interrupted by maintenance and attacks which have added to the region’s security hot spots. President Morsi promised to crack down on militants operating in the area after they killed a dozen border guards. Islamic finance may test another boundary as the professional association now projects 10 percent annual growth under the new leadership tendency from about 5 percent of prior total activity.

Romania’s Flouted Flickering Flame
2012 August 30 by admin

Posted in: Europe
Romanian securities briefly paused for relief as President Basecu retained his post on lower than majority turnout on an impeachment referendum, although almost 90 percent voted to oust him. He called the attempt a “coup d’etat” and described the outcome as the “still burning democracy flame. ” The move was widely seen as prime minister Ponta’s retaliation against a corruption conviction for his mentor and a power struggle over judicial control which also raised US and EU concern over the rule of law. To assuage outcry and maintain bilateral and multilateral aid including the EUR 5 billion IMF precautionary standby he promised the European Commission a compromise which would restore constitutional court authority. The president’s popularity rating is below 20 percent, but the interim government until elections later this year has been gripped by party warfare and policy bungling. The budget deficit target of sub-3 percent of GDP went off track as privatization offerings were delayed and state firms began outright liquidation. Economic growth slid to 1 percent on 4 percent inflation and banks have felt the additional brunt of Greek and core European parent damage. The leu dropped through 4. 5 to the euro as the region’s worst performer and the sovereign ratings outlook went to negative as the threshold investment-grade rating by two agencies may erode. As the leadership spat heated up a large Eurobond repayment was due on zero monthly net FDI inflows and a 5 percent of GDP current account gap which may test the 30 billion plus in foreign reserves without tapping the Fund backstop. The Bucharest exchange has been a frontier MSCI laggard and overseas holdings of local debt are just one-third of neighbors at 10 percent. The USL grouping is expected to again dominate in upcoming polls and members have urged repudiation of austerity measures at the risk of repeating historic non-compliance with IMF programs. Many also note that Bulgaria which won EU candidacy at the same time has managed without an outside stabilization pact as it recently re-tapped the sovereign bond market as a standing EMBI component.

Turkey has also drawn envy as the continent’s runaway stock market gainer at 30 percent amid heavy 20 percent overseas ownership of domestic debt now equal to public banks there. GDP growth in a combination of consumption and diversified exports has settled at 2. 5 percent on single digit inflation. The current account deficit has remained around 8 percent on a firm lira and the central bank’s confusing multi-tier monetary policy has earned a reprieve from early criticism with the record to date. Along with portfolio allocation bank and corporate borrowers have maintained access to trade credit and short-term lines abroad despite geopolitical immediate doubts with the surrounding Iran and Syria sagas.

The IMF’s Arab Spring Leaps
2012 August 25 by admin

Posted in: MENA
Mideast stock markets which have mostly struggled this year were buoyed by the resumption of negotiations for an IMF loan by Egypt’s new President Morsi as respective $2 billion and $6 billion programs were inked with Jordan and Morocco. Tunisia too after renouncing resort may consider a facility as the World Bank extended banking sector and job creation assistance. The Islamic party-led regime will increase spending to compensate “victims” of the Ben Ali era and the central bank head, finance minister, and anti-corruption chief have all resigned after challenging reform direction. The sovereign was again downgraded after a US guarantee enabled commercial bond return as equities are off 2 percent through July. The chaos in Libya despite successful elections continues to weigh on cross-border trade while Mahgreb neighbor Algeria may soon offer bourse rivalry with listing and privatization initiatives. Jordan has experienced energy and political shocks following disruption of gas supplies and consecutive cabinet reshuffles as the king and parliament try to agree on updated responsibilities. Morocco has been the laggard with a 15 percent loss on Eurozone export, investment and remittance damage and stubborn fiscal and current account deficits. The royal leadership raised budget subsidies in response to popular demonstrations, and bad weather squelched agricultural output. The currency is pegged to a foreign basket and reserves cover just four months’ imports. A EUR 1 billion external bond was placed in 2010 and with the Fund’s precautionary line a Gulf-directed issue may be attempted. Elsewhere in the region an anti-poverty credit was signed with Yemen after former president Saleh went into exile and Sudan may eventually qualify for help following a north-south deal on oil which may further lift sanctions on Khartoum. However GDP has plunged 10 percent with South Sudan independence and the central bank has turned to gold trading for hard currency. 40 percent inflation has resulted from subsidy removal and pound depreciation and announced public sector layoffs sparked mass protests. The regime headed by accused war criminal Omar al-Bashir has been in power almost 25 years and security absorbs 70 percent of spending.

The IMF’s standby with Iraq was also extended until 2013, which was positive for dollar bonds. Prime Minister al-Maliki likely faces more no-confidence votes as his coalition has yet to find its footing and tensions mount with Kurdistan over oil proceeds and continued civilian attacks following US military withdrawal. Inflation is within the 6-7 percent target range despite dinar shakiness aggravated by dual crises in Iran and Syria. In Egypt the rate was falling from double digits toward that boundary in the aftermath of President Morsi’s nod but imported food costs may again spike. Foreign reserves are half the level they were during Mubarak’s departure and the central bank has become a key domestic debt buyer at 15 percent yields as averse foreign investors ponder the odds Fund talks this time pursue MENA’s agreeable path.

Ukraine’s Golden Harvest Humbling
2012 August 25 by admin

Posted in: Europe
Ukrainian shares trimmed double-digit losses despite drought again stifling output at the world’s number three corn producer as near $10 billion in swap and loan facilities were obtained from China, which the Foreign Minister has hailed as an “El Dorado” new ally. A $2. 5 billion bilateral currency pool will support trade and combined $6. 5 billion in development credit will go to agricultural and energy projects. The infusion came as the $15. 5 billion IMF program showed no sign of reactivation with a mission only returning in September just prior to parliamentary elections. The Article IV consultation summary in July cited “fiscal pressure” from wage and pension increases and state gas company obligations that will send the deficit over 3 percent of GDP. With inflation seen at 7. 5 percent monetary tightening was suggested along with greater exchange rate flexibility to protect reserves under the $30 billion mark at mid-year, when both Eurobond and Russian bank VTB payments were due. The arrangements were subsequently refinanced, but President Yanukovich has urged exit from the “artificial” 8 to the dollar peg as his Party of Regions tries to maintain business backing in a close race with opposition groups according to opinion readings. Former prime minister Tymoshenko’s bloc has won sympathy for her 7-year jail sentence for malfeasance in office widely condemned as politically-based, while voters are also angry over tax and retirement changes introduced since 2010. Avowed communists claim 5-10 percent endorsements on popular dissatisfaction only muted slightly by the afterglow of European football cup hosting, where infrastructure and stadium construction deals went mainly to well-connected insiders.