They have already
abolished
those
cheering beverages from grapes and grain, or rather they have made alcohol
one of the surreptitious privileges of the rich.
cheering beverages from grapes and grain, or rather they have made alcohol
one of the surreptitious privileges of the rich.
Sutherland - Birth Control- A Statement of Christian Doctrine against the Neo-Malthusians
2 18.
1 +9.
1 4.
0 116.
7 15.
9 18.
2
Pas-de-Calais 26. 8 17. 4 +9. 4 4. 2 135. 3 -- --
Morbihan. 25. 7 17. 8 +7. 9 4. 4 113. 7 15. 0 19. 0
_Total Averages. 26. 5 17. 7 +8. 8 4. 2 121. 9 15. 4 18. 6_
Lot. 15. 0 21. 0 -6. 0 4. 5 148. 0 7. 5 20. 6
Haute Garonne. 15. 1 20. 4 -5. 3 4. 0 121. 3 9. 0 22. 5
Tarn-et-Garonne 14. 9 20. 1 -5. 1 4. 7 134. 7 7. 9 20. 7
Lot-et-Garonne. 13. 7 19. 1 -5. 4 4. 4 112. 0 7. 4 20. 1
Gers. 13. 2 19. 2 -6. 0 4. 1 102. 4 6. 8 19. 8
_Total Averages. 14. 3 19. 9 -5. 5 4. 3 123. 6 7. 7 20. 7_
there is a high birth-rate, and moreover that in these Departments both
the death-rate and the infant mortality rate is _lower_ than in the five
Departments with the lowest birth-rate.
Professor Meyrick Booth's comments are as follows:
"The above five departments (in which the decline of population has
been most marked) are adjacent to one another in the fertile valley of
the Garonne, one of the wealthiest parts of France; and we may well
ask: Why should the birth-rate under such favourable conditions be less
than half that which is noted for the bleak district of Finistère? The
noted statistician, M. Leroy-Beaulieu, has some interesting
observations to offer upon this paradoxical state of things.
Considering the country in general, and these districts in particular,
he notes that the most prolific parts of France are those in which the
people have retained their allegiance to the traditional Church (in the
case of the Pas-de-Calais we have a certain degree of adherence to the
orthodox faith combined with the presence of a large mining
population). M. Leroy-Beaulieu expresses the opinion that the Catholic
Church tends, by means of its whole atmosphere, to promote a general
increase of population; for, more than other types of Christianity, it
condemns egoism, materialism, and inordinate ambition for self or
family; and, moreover, it works in the same direction through its
uncompromising condemnation of modern Malthusian practices. He draws
our attention, further, to the new wave of religious life which has
swept over the _haute-bourgeoisie_ of France during the last few
decades; and he does not hesitate to connect this with the fact that
this class is now one of the most prolific (perhaps the most prolific)
in the nation. Space forbids my taking up this subject in detail, but
it appears from a considerable body of figures which have been
collected that, while the average number of children born to each
marriage in the English Protestant upper middle class is not more than
about 2. 0 to 2. 5, the number born to each marriage in the corresponding
class in France is between 3. 0 and 4. 0. Taking the foregoing facts into
consideration, it would appear that Roman Catholicism--even in
France--is very considerably more prolific (where the belief of the
people is at all deep) than English Protestantism. This applies both to
the upper and lower classes. " [37]
In all probability Lord Dawson was unaware of the foregoing, but there is
one fact which, as a Neo-Malthusian, he ought to have known, because the
omission of this fact in his address is a serious matter. When referring to
France as a country where birth control had come to stay, _Lord Dawson did
not tell his audience that the Government of France has now suppressed the
only Malthusian periodical in that country, and has proposed a law, whereby
those who engage in birth control propaganda shall be imprisoned_.
Section 2. EVIDENCE FROM HOLLAND
As regards other countries, Holland is usually described as the Mecca of
Malthusians, being "the only country where Neo-Malthusianism has been given
the opportunity of diminishing the excessive birth-rate on eugenic lines,
i. e. in the reduction of the fertility of the poorest classes," [38] and
where a "considerable rise in the wages and general prosperity appears
to have taken place side by side with an unprecedented increase of
population. " When we come to investigate this claim we find that, of the
eleven provinces of Holland, two are almost entirely Catholic, these
being North Brabant, with 649,000 inhabitants, and Limburg, with 358,000
inhabitants. On the other hand, in Friesland, with 366,000 inhabitants,
not more than 8 per cent, are Catholics. The vital statistics for 1913 are
quoted by Father Thurston, S. J. :
". . . We find that in Limburg the crude birth-rate is 33. 4, in North
Brabant it is 32. 5, but in Friesland it is 24. 3. Of course, this is not
the beginning and end of the matter. In North Brabant the death-rate is
16. 36, in Limburg it is 15. 28, in Friesland it is only 11. 21, but the
fact remains that in the two Catholic provinces the natural increase is
16. 17 and 18. 15, while in the non-Catholic province of Friesland it is
13. 15. Further, no one can doubt that in such densely populated
districts as North and South Holland and Gelderland the Catholics, who
number more than 25 per cent, of the inhabitants, exercise a
perceptible influence in raising the birth figures for the whole
kingdom. The results would be very different if the entire country
adopted Neo-Malthusian principles. " [39]
Section 3. THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
As was proved by the census of religions in 1906, the United States of
America is becoming a great stronghold of the Faith. In Massachusetts the
Catholic Church numbered 1,100,000 members, whereas the total membership
of all the Protestant Churches was 450,000. In Illinois there were about
300,000 Methodists and 1,000,000 Catholics. There were 2,300,000 Catholics
in the State of New York, and about 300,000 Methodists, while no other
Protestant Church numbered more than 200,000. The New England States, once
the home of American Puritanism, are now great centres of Catholicism.
Professor Meyrick Booth [40] explains this remarkable change as being due
to two causes: (1) The influx of large numbers of European Catholics, who
cling tenaciously to their religion; (2) the greater fertility of these
stocks as compared with the native population. Moreover, he has tabulated
the following statistics:
TABLE IV
State. Population Chief Religious Bodies Births & Birth
(1906) Deaths rate per
(b. and d. ) 1,000
Indiana 2,700,000 Methodist 233,000 b. 36,000 13. 0
Prot. Episcopalian 102,000 d. 36,500
Disciples 118,000
R. C. 175,000
Iowa. 2,224,000 Methodist 164,000 b. 36,000 16. 0
Lutheran 117,000 d. 20,000
Presbyterian 60,000
R. C. 207,000
Maryland. 1,295,000 Methodist 137,000 b. 19,000 15. 0
Prot. Episcopalian 35,000 d. 20,000
Baptist & smaller,
about 100,000
R. C. 167,000
California. 2,377,000 R. C. 354,000 b. 32,100 14. 0
Prot. bodies about d. 32,400
(All Churches weak) 250,000
Kentucky 2,290,000 Baptist 312,000 b. 35,000 15. 0
Methodist 156,000 d. 18,000
R. C. 166,000
In these States the birth-rate is low; in three there are actually more
deaths than births; and in all five the proportion of Catholics is
comparatively small. These States may be compared with five others, in
which the Catholic and the foreign elements are well represented:
TABLE V
State. Population Chief Religious Birth and Birthrate
(1910) Bodies Deaths per 1000
New York. 9,113,000 R. C. 2,280,000 b. 213,000 22. 0
Jews (? ) 1,000,000 d. 147,000
Methodist 300,000
Presbyterian 200,000
Rhode Island 540,000 R. C. 160,000 b. 13,000 24. 0
Baptist 20,000 d. 8,000
Prot.
Episcopalian 15,000
Massachusetts 3,336,000 R. C. 1,080,000 b. 84,000 25. 0
Congregational 120,000 d. 51,000
Baptist 80,000
All Protestants
together 450,000
Michigan 2,800,000 R. C. 490,000 b. 64,000 23. 0
Methodist 128,000 d. 36,000
Lutheran 105,000
Connecticut 1,114,000 R. C. 300,000 b. 27,000 24. 0
Congregational 66,000 d. 17,000
Prot.
Episcopalian 37,000
In these States the birth-rate is very much higher than in the former.
Furthermore, a New York paper [40] investigated the birth-rate in that
city with special reference to religious belief, and concluded that the
different bodies could be graded as follows with respect to the number of
children per marriage: (1) Jews, (2) Catholics, (3) Protestants (Orthodox),
(4) Protestants (Liberal), and (5) Agnostic. Professor Meyrick Booth, who
is himself a Protestant, concludes his survey of the evidence as follows:
"looking at the situation as a whole, there is good reason to think
that the Protestant Anglo-Saxons are not only losing ground
_relatively_, but must, at any rate in the East and middle East, be
suffering an actual decrease on a large scale. For it has been shown by
more than one sociologist (see, for example, the statement in _The
Family and the Nation_) that no stock can maintain itself with an
average of less than about four children per marriage, and from all
available data (it has not been found possible to obtain definite
figures for most of the Western and Southern States) we must see that
the average fertility of each marriage in this section of the American
people falls far short of the requisite four children. Judging by all
the figures at hand, the modern Anglo-Saxon American, with his high
standard of comfort, his intensely individualistic outlook on life, and
his intellectual and emancipated but child-refusing wife, is being
gradually thrust aside by the upgrowth of new masses of people of
simpler tastes and hardier and more natural habits. And, what is of
peculiar interest to us, this new population will carry into ascendancy
those religious and moral beliefs which have moulded its type of life.
"The victory will be, not to those religious beliefs which most closely
correspond to certain requirements of the abstract intellect, but to
those which give rise, in practice, to a mode of life that is simple,
natural, unselfish, and adequately prolific--in other words, to a mode
of life that _works_, that is _Lebensfähig_. " [41]
As things are, the original Protestant stock of America is being swamped by
the growth of the Catholic, the Jewish, and the Negro population. Moreover,
the United States is faced by the grave problem of a rapidly increasing
coloured race. Despite this fact the American Malthusians are now demanding
that a National Bureau should be established to disseminate information
regarding contraceptives throughout their country! And what of the other
reformers? They also are very busy.
They have already abolished those
cheering beverages from grapes and grain, or rather they have made alcohol
one of the surreptitious privileges of the rich. They are seeking to
enforce the Sabbath as a day of absolute rest, not for the glory of God but
in order that tired wage-slaves may have their strength renewed for another
week of toil in the factories and the mills. Again, they would uproot
from the homely earth that pleasant weed whose leaves have made slaves of
millions since the days of Sir Walter Raleigh. All these things would they
do. There are some things the reformers have not done, and these things are
recounted by an American writer, Dr. Anthony M. Benedik:
"The divorce peril, the race-suicide evil, the greed for ill-gotten
gold, things like these the reformers touch not. And these things it is
which harm the soul. Abolishing the use of alcoholic drinks and of
tobacco, putting the blue laws into effect, suppressing all rough
sports, may make a cleaner, more sanitary, more hygienic, a quieter
world. And yet there keep recurring to mind those words of the Master
of mankind, 'What doth it profit a man if he gain the world and suffer
the loss of his soul? ' What worthy exchange can a man make for his
soul? " [42]
On the other hand, it is good to read that the Governor of New York has
recently signed a bill making it a misdemeanour for landlords to refuse
to rent apartments to families in which there are children. In that State
children thus regain equal rights with dogs, cats, and canaries. Is it too
much to ask of the House of Commons that they should pass a similar law? We
shall see.
The dangers of birth control were apparent to that great American, Theodore
Roosevelt, when he said:
"The greatest of all curses is the curse of sterility, and the severest
of all condemnations should be that visited upon wilful sterility. The
first essential in any civilisation is that the man and the woman shall
be the father and the mother of healthy children, so that the race
shall increase and not decrease. " [43]
Section 4. THE SAME RESULTS IN ENGLAND
On a smaller scale the position is the same in England and Wales, where
Catholicism has probably checked to some extent the general decline of
the birth-rate. In 1919 there were only six towns in England [44] with a
birth-rate of over 25 per 1,000, these being St. Helens (25. 6), Gateshead
(25. 9), South Shields (26. 9), Sunderland (27. 1), Tynemouth (25. 9), and
Middlesbrough (26. 7). Now in these towns the Catholic element is very
strong. During the same year in the four registration counties in which
these towns are situated, a larger proportion of marriages were celebrated
according to the rites of the Church of Rome than in the other counties of
England and Wales. [45] The actual proportion of Catholic marriages per
1,000 of all marriages in these four counties was: Lancashire 116, Durham
99, Northumberland 92, and the North Riding of Yorkshire 92. That gives a
fair index of the strength of the Catholic population. Again in 1919 we
find that Preston, a textile town, has a birth-rate of 17. 1, whereas two
other textile towns, Bradford and Halifax, have rates of 13. 4 and 13. 1
respectively: and there can be little doubt that the relative superiority
of Preston is mainly owing to her large Catholic population.
The actual birth-rate amongst Catholics in England may be estimated from
information contained in _The Catholic Directory_ for 1914. As that work
gives the Catholic population and the number of infant baptisms during the
previous year in each diocese of Great Britain, and as Catholic children
are always baptized soon after birth, it is possible to estimate the
birth-rate of the Catholic population. Working on these figures Professor
Meyrick Booth [46] has published the following table:
TABLE VI
Diocese. Birth-rate per 1,000 of the
Roman Catholic population.
Menevia (Wales) 45. 2
Middlesbrough 38. 0
Leeds 42. 0
Liverpool 40. 0
Newport 53. 0
Northampton 33. 0
Plymouth 26. 0
Shrewsbury 38. 0
Southwark 39. O
Westminster 36. 0
----
Average 38. 6
----
During the same period the general birth-rate amongst the whole population
of England and Wales was about 24 per 1,000. And figures that are even more
remarkable have been published by Mr. W. C. D. Whetham and Mrs. Whetham. [47]
These writers, having investigated the number of children in the families
of the landed gentry, show that the birth-rate amongst the aristocracy has
declined.
"A hundred fertile marriages for each decade from 1831 to 1890 have
been taken consecutively from those families who have held their title
to nobility for at least two preceding generations, thus excluding the
more modern commercial middle-class element in the present Peerage,
which can be better dealt with elsewhere. We then get the full effect
of hereditary stability and a secure position, and do away with any
disturbing influence that might occur from a sudden rise to
prosperity. " [48]
The results were as follows: [Reference: Population]
Year. Number of children to each
fertile marriage.
1831-40 7. 1
1841-60 6. 1
1871-80 4. 36
1881-90 3. 13
The birth-rate amongst thirty families of the landed gentry, who were
known to be definitely Catholic, was also investigated, with the following
results:
Years. Number of children to each
fertile marriage.
1871-90 6. 6
(as compared with 3. 74 for the landed families as a whole during the
same period. )
The interpretation of these figures is not a matter of faith, but of
reason. I submit that the facts are _prima facie_ evidence that by
observance of the moral law, as taught by the Catholic Church, even
a highly cultured community is enabled to escape those dangers of
over-civilisation that lead to diminished fertility and consequently to
national decline.
The truth of this statement has been freely acknowledged by many Anglicans.
According to Canon Edward Lyttelton: "The discipline of the Roman Communion
prohibits the artificial prevention of conception, hence Ireland is the
only part of the United Kingdom in which the birth-rate has not declined,
and the decline is least in places like Liverpool and those districts where
Roman Catholics are most numerous. " As we have already seen, there are also
other reasons why Catholicism preserves the fertility of a nation.
Without wishing to hurt the feelings of the most sensitive materialist, it
is necessary to point out that, apart altogether from the question as to
whether the chief or immediate cause of a declining birth-rate is the
practice of artificial birth control, or, as seems to be possible, a
general lowering of fertility, birth-rates are more dependent on morals
and religion than on race and country. During the past century irreligion
spread throughout France, and the birth-rate fell from 32. 2, during the
first decade of the nineteenth century, to 20. 6, during the first ten years
of the twentieth century. In America, amongst the descendants of the New
England Puritans a decay of religion and morals has also been accompanied
by a dwindling birth-rate. The decline of the original New England stock in
America has been masked to some extent by the high birth-rate amongst the
immigrant population; but nevertheless it is apparent in the Census Returns
for 1890, when a population of 65,000,000 was expected and only 62,500,000
was returned. Moreover, there is ample evidence in history that, wherever
the Christian ideal of a family has been abandoned, a race is neither able
to return to the family life of healthy pagan civilisations nor to escape
decay. During the past fifty years in England family life has been
definitely weakened by increased facilities for divorce amongst the rich,
by the discouragement of parental authority amongst the poor, and by the
neglect of all religious teaching in the schools. And thus, in the words
of Charles Devas, "We have of late years, with perverse ingenuity, been
preparing the way for the low birth-rate of irreligion and the high
death-rate of civil disorder. " [49] The birth-rate in England and Wales
reached its highest point, 36. 3, in 1876, and has gradually fallen to 18. 5
in 1919. During the first two quarters of that year the rate was the lowest
yet recorded. During the pre-war year, 1913, the rate was 24. 1.
In conclusion, the following statements by a Protestant writer are of
interest:
"Judging from a number of figures which cannot be quoted here, owing to
considerations of space, it would seem that the English middle-class
birth-rate has fallen to the extent of _over 50 per cent_. during the
last forty years; and we have actual figures showing that the
well-to-do artisan birth-rate has declined, _in the last thirty years,
by 52 per cent. ! _ Seeing that the Protestant Churches draw their
members mainly from these very classes, we have not far to seek for an
explanation of the empty Sunday Schools. . . . "
"Under these circumstances it is not in the least necessary for
Protestant ministers and clergymen to cast about them for evidence of
Jesuit machinations wherewith to explain the decline of the Protestant
Churches in this country! Let them rather look at the empty cradles in
the homes of their own congregations! " [50]
The author of the above-quoted paragraphs thus attributes the decline both
of the birth-rate and of the Protestant Churches to the general adoption of
artificial birth control. With that explanation I disagree, because it
puts the horse behind the cart. When the Protestant faith was strong the
birth-rate of this country was as high as that of Catholic lands. The
Protestant Churches have now been overshadowed by a rebirth of Rationalism,
a growth for which they themselves prepared the soil: and diminished
fertility is the natural product of a civilisation tending towards
materialism. Although the practice of artificial birth control must
obviously contribute towards a falling birth-rate, it is neither the only
nor the ultimate cause of the decline. The ultimate causes of a falling
birth-rate are more complex, and the decline of a community is but the
physical expression of a moral change. That is my thesis.
[Footnote 35: _Evening Standard_, October 12, 1921. ]
[Footnote 36: "The Declining Birth-rate" in _The Month_, August 1916, p.
157, reprinted by C. T. S. Price 2_d_. ]
[Footnote 37: "Religious Belief as affecting the Growth of Population,"
_The Hibbert Journal_, October, 1914, p. 144. ]
[Footnote 38: The Secretary of the Malthusian League. Vide _The Declining
Birth-rate_, 1916, p. 99. ]
[Footnote 39: _The Month_, August 1916, p. 157, C. T. S. : 2_d_. ]
[Footnote 40: _The Hibbert Journal_, October 1914, p. 147. ]
[Footnote 41: _The Hibbert Journal_, October 1914, p. 150. ]
[Footnote 42: "Race-suicide and Dr. Bell," _America_, October 29, 1921, p.
31. ]
[Footnote 43: _Daily Chronicle_, April 25, 1910. ]
[Footnote 44: _Eighty-second Annual Report of the Registrar-General of
Births, Deaths, and Marriages in England and Wales_, 1919, p. 89. ]
[Footnote 45: Ibid. , p. xxvi. ]
[Footnote 46: _The Hibbert Journal_, October 1914, p. 141. ]
[Footnote 47: _The Family and the Nation_, 1909, pp. 139, 142. ]
[Footnote 48: Quoted in _Universe_, October 22, 1921. ]
[Footnote 49: Charles S. Devas, _Political Economy_, 2nd edition, 1901, p.
193. ]
[Footnote 50: Meyrick Booth, B. Sc. , Ph. D. , _The Hibbert Journal_, October
1914, pp. 142 and 152. ]
CHAPTER V
IS THERE A NATURAL LAW REGULATING THE PROPORTION OF BIRTHS AND DEATHS?
Section 1. THE THEORY OF THOMAS DOUBLEDAY REVIVED
In 1837 Thomas Doubleday [51] maintained that the rising birth-rate of his
own time was closely connected with the fall in the standard of living, and
his argument implied that, in order to check the excessive birth-rate, it
was necessary to improve the condition of the mass of the people. Four
years later he published _The True Law of Population_, wherein he stated
that when the existence of a species is endangered--
"A corresponding effort is invariably made by Nature for its
preservation and continuance by an increase of fertility, and that this
especially takes place whenever such danger arises from a diminution of
proper nourishment or food, so that consequently the state of depletion
or the deplethoric state is favourable to fertility, and that, on the
other hand, the plethoric state, or state of repletion, is unfavourable
to fertility in the ratio of the intensity of each state. "
By a series of experiments on plants Doubleday discovered that "whatever
might be the principle of manure, _an overdose_ of it invariably induced
sterility in the plant. " Although his formula is deficient in that food is
selected as the one factor in environment which influences fertility, and
although it may be an overstatement to claim that fertility varies in exact
proportion to abundance or to scarcity, nevertheless his formula contains
an important truth which literally knocks the bottom out of the whole
Malthusian case.
It is a sad reflection that, while the falsehoods of Malthus have been
blindly accepted for the greater part of a century, the work of Doubleday
was almost lost in oblivion. His shade has now been recalled to the full
centre of the stage, and for this the credit is due to Mr. C. E. Pell. His
recent book [52] is a stimulating essay on the declining birth-rate, and
contains much evidence that supports the main contention of Doubleday.
Although it is impossible to agree with all the deductions made by Mr.
Pell, he has nevertheless done a public service by restating the problem of
the birth-rate in a new way, by effectively bursting the Malthusian bubble,
and by tabulating fresh evidence against the birth-controllers.
Section 2. MR. PELL'S GENERALISATIONS CRITICISED
Mr. Pell defines the law of births and deaths in two generalisations. The
first is: "We have seen that it is a necessary condition of the success
of the evolutionary scheme that the variation of the inherited potential
degree of fertility between species and species must bear an inverse
proportion to their capacity for survival. " [53] At first glance this
statement appears hard to be understood; but it is obviously true--because
it means that a species that is well adapted to its environment can survive
with a low degree of fertility, whereas a species that is not well adapted
to its environment requires a high degree of fertility in order to survive.
Mr. Pell considers that a "capacity for survival" is synonymous with
"nervous energy"; but, as our total knowledge of nervous energy is limited
to the fact that it is neither matter nor any known force, the change in
words does not mark a real advance in knowledge.
The second generalisation is that "the variation of the degree of animal
fertility in response to the direct action of the environment shall bear
an inverse proportion to the variation of the survival capacity under
that environment. " [54] Here Mr. Pell and I part company. I have already
(Chapter III) disputed the causal connection between birth-rate and
death-rate which Mr. Pell here asserts. His generalisation is made by
assuming that birth-rates and death-rates rise and fall together: that
conditions which produce a high death-rate will also produce a high
birth-rate and that conditions which cause a low death-rate will also cause
a low birth-rate; that the increase or decline of a population is due to
the direct action of the environment; and finally that "the _actual_ degree
of fertility is decided by the direct action of the environment. " [55] On
that last rock Mr. Pell's barque sinks. The mistake here is analogous to
the old Darwinian fallacy, abandoned by Huxley and by Romanes, that natural
selection is a creative cause of new species. Even if the hypothesis of
evolution--and it is merely a hypothesis--be accepted, the only view
warranted by reason is that variation of species and their actual degree of
fertility may be produced, not by the direct action of environment, but by
the _reaction_ of species to their environment--a very different story.
There is no statistical evidence to prove a uniform correspondence between
birth-rates and death-rates, and it is improbable that there should be
a physical law of nature whose operations cannot be demonstrated by
mathematical proof. Moreover, we know that the same conditions which cause
a high birth-rate may cause a low death-rate. In the case of the first
settlers in a new country the death-rate is low because the diseases of
civilisation are absent and the settlers are usually young, whereas the
birth-rate is high. If fifty young married couples settle on the virgin
soil of a new country it is probable that for many years an enormous
birth-rate, of over 100, will coexist with a low death-rate.
In reality a high birth-rate may coexist with a low death-rate, or with a
high death-rate. For example, there is a difference between natural and
artificial poverty, the first being brought about by God, or, if any reader
prefers to have it so, by Nature, and the second being made by man. Under
conditions of natural poverty small groups of people in an open country are
surrounded by land not yet cultivated: whereas artificial poverty means
a population overcrowded and underfed, living in dark tenements or in
back-to-back houses, breathing foul air in ill-ventilated rooms seldom lit
by the sun, working long hours in gas-lit workshops for a sweated wage,
buying the cheapest food in the dearest market, and drugged by bad liquor.
In either case their existence is threatened, although for very different
reasons, and the birth-rate rises; but under conditions of natural poverty
the death-rate is low, whereas in slums the death-rate is high.
Section 3. THE LAW OF DECLINE
It would appear, then, that under conditions of hardship the birth-rate
tends to rise, and that in circumstances of ease the birth-rate tends to
fall. If the existence of the inhabitants in a closed country is threatened
by scarcity, the birth-rate tends to rise. For example, "In some of the
remote parts of the country, Orkney and Shetland, the population remained
practically stationary between the years 1801 and 1811, and in the next ten
years, still years of great scarcity, it increased 15 per cent. " [56]
The governing principle may be expressed in the following generalisation.
When the existence of a community is threatened by adversity the birth-rate
tends to rise; but when the existence of a community is threatened by
prosperity the birth-rate tends to fall. By adversity I mean war, famine,
scarcity, poverty, oppression, an untilled soil, and disease: and by
prosperity I mean wealth, luxury, idleness, a diet too rich--especially in
flesh meat--and over-civilisation, whereby the physical laws of nature
are defied. Now the danger of national decline owing to prosperity can
be avoided by a nation that observes the moral law, and this is the most
probable explanation of the fact that in Ireland, although the general
prosperity of the people has rapidly increased since George Wyndham
displaced landlordism over a large area by small ownership, the birth-rate
has continued to rise. Moreover, the danger to national existence, as we
have already indicated (Chapter I, Section. 10) is greater from moral than
from physical catastrophes, and when both catastrophes are threatened the
ultimate issue depends upon which of the two is the greater. Furthermore,
it would appear that moral catastrophes inevitably lead to physical
catastrophes.
Pas-de-Calais 26. 8 17. 4 +9. 4 4. 2 135. 3 -- --
Morbihan. 25. 7 17. 8 +7. 9 4. 4 113. 7 15. 0 19. 0
_Total Averages. 26. 5 17. 7 +8. 8 4. 2 121. 9 15. 4 18. 6_
Lot. 15. 0 21. 0 -6. 0 4. 5 148. 0 7. 5 20. 6
Haute Garonne. 15. 1 20. 4 -5. 3 4. 0 121. 3 9. 0 22. 5
Tarn-et-Garonne 14. 9 20. 1 -5. 1 4. 7 134. 7 7. 9 20. 7
Lot-et-Garonne. 13. 7 19. 1 -5. 4 4. 4 112. 0 7. 4 20. 1
Gers. 13. 2 19. 2 -6. 0 4. 1 102. 4 6. 8 19. 8
_Total Averages. 14. 3 19. 9 -5. 5 4. 3 123. 6 7. 7 20. 7_
there is a high birth-rate, and moreover that in these Departments both
the death-rate and the infant mortality rate is _lower_ than in the five
Departments with the lowest birth-rate.
Professor Meyrick Booth's comments are as follows:
"The above five departments (in which the decline of population has
been most marked) are adjacent to one another in the fertile valley of
the Garonne, one of the wealthiest parts of France; and we may well
ask: Why should the birth-rate under such favourable conditions be less
than half that which is noted for the bleak district of Finistère? The
noted statistician, M. Leroy-Beaulieu, has some interesting
observations to offer upon this paradoxical state of things.
Considering the country in general, and these districts in particular,
he notes that the most prolific parts of France are those in which the
people have retained their allegiance to the traditional Church (in the
case of the Pas-de-Calais we have a certain degree of adherence to the
orthodox faith combined with the presence of a large mining
population). M. Leroy-Beaulieu expresses the opinion that the Catholic
Church tends, by means of its whole atmosphere, to promote a general
increase of population; for, more than other types of Christianity, it
condemns egoism, materialism, and inordinate ambition for self or
family; and, moreover, it works in the same direction through its
uncompromising condemnation of modern Malthusian practices. He draws
our attention, further, to the new wave of religious life which has
swept over the _haute-bourgeoisie_ of France during the last few
decades; and he does not hesitate to connect this with the fact that
this class is now one of the most prolific (perhaps the most prolific)
in the nation. Space forbids my taking up this subject in detail, but
it appears from a considerable body of figures which have been
collected that, while the average number of children born to each
marriage in the English Protestant upper middle class is not more than
about 2. 0 to 2. 5, the number born to each marriage in the corresponding
class in France is between 3. 0 and 4. 0. Taking the foregoing facts into
consideration, it would appear that Roman Catholicism--even in
France--is very considerably more prolific (where the belief of the
people is at all deep) than English Protestantism. This applies both to
the upper and lower classes. " [37]
In all probability Lord Dawson was unaware of the foregoing, but there is
one fact which, as a Neo-Malthusian, he ought to have known, because the
omission of this fact in his address is a serious matter. When referring to
France as a country where birth control had come to stay, _Lord Dawson did
not tell his audience that the Government of France has now suppressed the
only Malthusian periodical in that country, and has proposed a law, whereby
those who engage in birth control propaganda shall be imprisoned_.
Section 2. EVIDENCE FROM HOLLAND
As regards other countries, Holland is usually described as the Mecca of
Malthusians, being "the only country where Neo-Malthusianism has been given
the opportunity of diminishing the excessive birth-rate on eugenic lines,
i. e. in the reduction of the fertility of the poorest classes," [38] and
where a "considerable rise in the wages and general prosperity appears
to have taken place side by side with an unprecedented increase of
population. " When we come to investigate this claim we find that, of the
eleven provinces of Holland, two are almost entirely Catholic, these
being North Brabant, with 649,000 inhabitants, and Limburg, with 358,000
inhabitants. On the other hand, in Friesland, with 366,000 inhabitants,
not more than 8 per cent, are Catholics. The vital statistics for 1913 are
quoted by Father Thurston, S. J. :
". . . We find that in Limburg the crude birth-rate is 33. 4, in North
Brabant it is 32. 5, but in Friesland it is 24. 3. Of course, this is not
the beginning and end of the matter. In North Brabant the death-rate is
16. 36, in Limburg it is 15. 28, in Friesland it is only 11. 21, but the
fact remains that in the two Catholic provinces the natural increase is
16. 17 and 18. 15, while in the non-Catholic province of Friesland it is
13. 15. Further, no one can doubt that in such densely populated
districts as North and South Holland and Gelderland the Catholics, who
number more than 25 per cent, of the inhabitants, exercise a
perceptible influence in raising the birth figures for the whole
kingdom. The results would be very different if the entire country
adopted Neo-Malthusian principles. " [39]
Section 3. THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
As was proved by the census of religions in 1906, the United States of
America is becoming a great stronghold of the Faith. In Massachusetts the
Catholic Church numbered 1,100,000 members, whereas the total membership
of all the Protestant Churches was 450,000. In Illinois there were about
300,000 Methodists and 1,000,000 Catholics. There were 2,300,000 Catholics
in the State of New York, and about 300,000 Methodists, while no other
Protestant Church numbered more than 200,000. The New England States, once
the home of American Puritanism, are now great centres of Catholicism.
Professor Meyrick Booth [40] explains this remarkable change as being due
to two causes: (1) The influx of large numbers of European Catholics, who
cling tenaciously to their religion; (2) the greater fertility of these
stocks as compared with the native population. Moreover, he has tabulated
the following statistics:
TABLE IV
State. Population Chief Religious Bodies Births & Birth
(1906) Deaths rate per
(b. and d. ) 1,000
Indiana 2,700,000 Methodist 233,000 b. 36,000 13. 0
Prot. Episcopalian 102,000 d. 36,500
Disciples 118,000
R. C. 175,000
Iowa. 2,224,000 Methodist 164,000 b. 36,000 16. 0
Lutheran 117,000 d. 20,000
Presbyterian 60,000
R. C. 207,000
Maryland. 1,295,000 Methodist 137,000 b. 19,000 15. 0
Prot. Episcopalian 35,000 d. 20,000
Baptist & smaller,
about 100,000
R. C. 167,000
California. 2,377,000 R. C. 354,000 b. 32,100 14. 0
Prot. bodies about d. 32,400
(All Churches weak) 250,000
Kentucky 2,290,000 Baptist 312,000 b. 35,000 15. 0
Methodist 156,000 d. 18,000
R. C. 166,000
In these States the birth-rate is low; in three there are actually more
deaths than births; and in all five the proportion of Catholics is
comparatively small. These States may be compared with five others, in
which the Catholic and the foreign elements are well represented:
TABLE V
State. Population Chief Religious Birth and Birthrate
(1910) Bodies Deaths per 1000
New York. 9,113,000 R. C. 2,280,000 b. 213,000 22. 0
Jews (? ) 1,000,000 d. 147,000
Methodist 300,000
Presbyterian 200,000
Rhode Island 540,000 R. C. 160,000 b. 13,000 24. 0
Baptist 20,000 d. 8,000
Prot.
Episcopalian 15,000
Massachusetts 3,336,000 R. C. 1,080,000 b. 84,000 25. 0
Congregational 120,000 d. 51,000
Baptist 80,000
All Protestants
together 450,000
Michigan 2,800,000 R. C. 490,000 b. 64,000 23. 0
Methodist 128,000 d. 36,000
Lutheran 105,000
Connecticut 1,114,000 R. C. 300,000 b. 27,000 24. 0
Congregational 66,000 d. 17,000
Prot.
Episcopalian 37,000
In these States the birth-rate is very much higher than in the former.
Furthermore, a New York paper [40] investigated the birth-rate in that
city with special reference to religious belief, and concluded that the
different bodies could be graded as follows with respect to the number of
children per marriage: (1) Jews, (2) Catholics, (3) Protestants (Orthodox),
(4) Protestants (Liberal), and (5) Agnostic. Professor Meyrick Booth, who
is himself a Protestant, concludes his survey of the evidence as follows:
"looking at the situation as a whole, there is good reason to think
that the Protestant Anglo-Saxons are not only losing ground
_relatively_, but must, at any rate in the East and middle East, be
suffering an actual decrease on a large scale. For it has been shown by
more than one sociologist (see, for example, the statement in _The
Family and the Nation_) that no stock can maintain itself with an
average of less than about four children per marriage, and from all
available data (it has not been found possible to obtain definite
figures for most of the Western and Southern States) we must see that
the average fertility of each marriage in this section of the American
people falls far short of the requisite four children. Judging by all
the figures at hand, the modern Anglo-Saxon American, with his high
standard of comfort, his intensely individualistic outlook on life, and
his intellectual and emancipated but child-refusing wife, is being
gradually thrust aside by the upgrowth of new masses of people of
simpler tastes and hardier and more natural habits. And, what is of
peculiar interest to us, this new population will carry into ascendancy
those religious and moral beliefs which have moulded its type of life.
"The victory will be, not to those religious beliefs which most closely
correspond to certain requirements of the abstract intellect, but to
those which give rise, in practice, to a mode of life that is simple,
natural, unselfish, and adequately prolific--in other words, to a mode
of life that _works_, that is _Lebensfähig_. " [41]
As things are, the original Protestant stock of America is being swamped by
the growth of the Catholic, the Jewish, and the Negro population. Moreover,
the United States is faced by the grave problem of a rapidly increasing
coloured race. Despite this fact the American Malthusians are now demanding
that a National Bureau should be established to disseminate information
regarding contraceptives throughout their country! And what of the other
reformers? They also are very busy.
They have already abolished those
cheering beverages from grapes and grain, or rather they have made alcohol
one of the surreptitious privileges of the rich. They are seeking to
enforce the Sabbath as a day of absolute rest, not for the glory of God but
in order that tired wage-slaves may have their strength renewed for another
week of toil in the factories and the mills. Again, they would uproot
from the homely earth that pleasant weed whose leaves have made slaves of
millions since the days of Sir Walter Raleigh. All these things would they
do. There are some things the reformers have not done, and these things are
recounted by an American writer, Dr. Anthony M. Benedik:
"The divorce peril, the race-suicide evil, the greed for ill-gotten
gold, things like these the reformers touch not. And these things it is
which harm the soul. Abolishing the use of alcoholic drinks and of
tobacco, putting the blue laws into effect, suppressing all rough
sports, may make a cleaner, more sanitary, more hygienic, a quieter
world. And yet there keep recurring to mind those words of the Master
of mankind, 'What doth it profit a man if he gain the world and suffer
the loss of his soul? ' What worthy exchange can a man make for his
soul? " [42]
On the other hand, it is good to read that the Governor of New York has
recently signed a bill making it a misdemeanour for landlords to refuse
to rent apartments to families in which there are children. In that State
children thus regain equal rights with dogs, cats, and canaries. Is it too
much to ask of the House of Commons that they should pass a similar law? We
shall see.
The dangers of birth control were apparent to that great American, Theodore
Roosevelt, when he said:
"The greatest of all curses is the curse of sterility, and the severest
of all condemnations should be that visited upon wilful sterility. The
first essential in any civilisation is that the man and the woman shall
be the father and the mother of healthy children, so that the race
shall increase and not decrease. " [43]
Section 4. THE SAME RESULTS IN ENGLAND
On a smaller scale the position is the same in England and Wales, where
Catholicism has probably checked to some extent the general decline of
the birth-rate. In 1919 there were only six towns in England [44] with a
birth-rate of over 25 per 1,000, these being St. Helens (25. 6), Gateshead
(25. 9), South Shields (26. 9), Sunderland (27. 1), Tynemouth (25. 9), and
Middlesbrough (26. 7). Now in these towns the Catholic element is very
strong. During the same year in the four registration counties in which
these towns are situated, a larger proportion of marriages were celebrated
according to the rites of the Church of Rome than in the other counties of
England and Wales. [45] The actual proportion of Catholic marriages per
1,000 of all marriages in these four counties was: Lancashire 116, Durham
99, Northumberland 92, and the North Riding of Yorkshire 92. That gives a
fair index of the strength of the Catholic population. Again in 1919 we
find that Preston, a textile town, has a birth-rate of 17. 1, whereas two
other textile towns, Bradford and Halifax, have rates of 13. 4 and 13. 1
respectively: and there can be little doubt that the relative superiority
of Preston is mainly owing to her large Catholic population.
The actual birth-rate amongst Catholics in England may be estimated from
information contained in _The Catholic Directory_ for 1914. As that work
gives the Catholic population and the number of infant baptisms during the
previous year in each diocese of Great Britain, and as Catholic children
are always baptized soon after birth, it is possible to estimate the
birth-rate of the Catholic population. Working on these figures Professor
Meyrick Booth [46] has published the following table:
TABLE VI
Diocese. Birth-rate per 1,000 of the
Roman Catholic population.
Menevia (Wales) 45. 2
Middlesbrough 38. 0
Leeds 42. 0
Liverpool 40. 0
Newport 53. 0
Northampton 33. 0
Plymouth 26. 0
Shrewsbury 38. 0
Southwark 39. O
Westminster 36. 0
----
Average 38. 6
----
During the same period the general birth-rate amongst the whole population
of England and Wales was about 24 per 1,000. And figures that are even more
remarkable have been published by Mr. W. C. D. Whetham and Mrs. Whetham. [47]
These writers, having investigated the number of children in the families
of the landed gentry, show that the birth-rate amongst the aristocracy has
declined.
"A hundred fertile marriages for each decade from 1831 to 1890 have
been taken consecutively from those families who have held their title
to nobility for at least two preceding generations, thus excluding the
more modern commercial middle-class element in the present Peerage,
which can be better dealt with elsewhere. We then get the full effect
of hereditary stability and a secure position, and do away with any
disturbing influence that might occur from a sudden rise to
prosperity. " [48]
The results were as follows: [Reference: Population]
Year. Number of children to each
fertile marriage.
1831-40 7. 1
1841-60 6. 1
1871-80 4. 36
1881-90 3. 13
The birth-rate amongst thirty families of the landed gentry, who were
known to be definitely Catholic, was also investigated, with the following
results:
Years. Number of children to each
fertile marriage.
1871-90 6. 6
(as compared with 3. 74 for the landed families as a whole during the
same period. )
The interpretation of these figures is not a matter of faith, but of
reason. I submit that the facts are _prima facie_ evidence that by
observance of the moral law, as taught by the Catholic Church, even
a highly cultured community is enabled to escape those dangers of
over-civilisation that lead to diminished fertility and consequently to
national decline.
The truth of this statement has been freely acknowledged by many Anglicans.
According to Canon Edward Lyttelton: "The discipline of the Roman Communion
prohibits the artificial prevention of conception, hence Ireland is the
only part of the United Kingdom in which the birth-rate has not declined,
and the decline is least in places like Liverpool and those districts where
Roman Catholics are most numerous. " As we have already seen, there are also
other reasons why Catholicism preserves the fertility of a nation.
Without wishing to hurt the feelings of the most sensitive materialist, it
is necessary to point out that, apart altogether from the question as to
whether the chief or immediate cause of a declining birth-rate is the
practice of artificial birth control, or, as seems to be possible, a
general lowering of fertility, birth-rates are more dependent on morals
and religion than on race and country. During the past century irreligion
spread throughout France, and the birth-rate fell from 32. 2, during the
first decade of the nineteenth century, to 20. 6, during the first ten years
of the twentieth century. In America, amongst the descendants of the New
England Puritans a decay of religion and morals has also been accompanied
by a dwindling birth-rate. The decline of the original New England stock in
America has been masked to some extent by the high birth-rate amongst the
immigrant population; but nevertheless it is apparent in the Census Returns
for 1890, when a population of 65,000,000 was expected and only 62,500,000
was returned. Moreover, there is ample evidence in history that, wherever
the Christian ideal of a family has been abandoned, a race is neither able
to return to the family life of healthy pagan civilisations nor to escape
decay. During the past fifty years in England family life has been
definitely weakened by increased facilities for divorce amongst the rich,
by the discouragement of parental authority amongst the poor, and by the
neglect of all religious teaching in the schools. And thus, in the words
of Charles Devas, "We have of late years, with perverse ingenuity, been
preparing the way for the low birth-rate of irreligion and the high
death-rate of civil disorder. " [49] The birth-rate in England and Wales
reached its highest point, 36. 3, in 1876, and has gradually fallen to 18. 5
in 1919. During the first two quarters of that year the rate was the lowest
yet recorded. During the pre-war year, 1913, the rate was 24. 1.
In conclusion, the following statements by a Protestant writer are of
interest:
"Judging from a number of figures which cannot be quoted here, owing to
considerations of space, it would seem that the English middle-class
birth-rate has fallen to the extent of _over 50 per cent_. during the
last forty years; and we have actual figures showing that the
well-to-do artisan birth-rate has declined, _in the last thirty years,
by 52 per cent. ! _ Seeing that the Protestant Churches draw their
members mainly from these very classes, we have not far to seek for an
explanation of the empty Sunday Schools. . . . "
"Under these circumstances it is not in the least necessary for
Protestant ministers and clergymen to cast about them for evidence of
Jesuit machinations wherewith to explain the decline of the Protestant
Churches in this country! Let them rather look at the empty cradles in
the homes of their own congregations! " [50]
The author of the above-quoted paragraphs thus attributes the decline both
of the birth-rate and of the Protestant Churches to the general adoption of
artificial birth control. With that explanation I disagree, because it
puts the horse behind the cart. When the Protestant faith was strong the
birth-rate of this country was as high as that of Catholic lands. The
Protestant Churches have now been overshadowed by a rebirth of Rationalism,
a growth for which they themselves prepared the soil: and diminished
fertility is the natural product of a civilisation tending towards
materialism. Although the practice of artificial birth control must
obviously contribute towards a falling birth-rate, it is neither the only
nor the ultimate cause of the decline. The ultimate causes of a falling
birth-rate are more complex, and the decline of a community is but the
physical expression of a moral change. That is my thesis.
[Footnote 35: _Evening Standard_, October 12, 1921. ]
[Footnote 36: "The Declining Birth-rate" in _The Month_, August 1916, p.
157, reprinted by C. T. S. Price 2_d_. ]
[Footnote 37: "Religious Belief as affecting the Growth of Population,"
_The Hibbert Journal_, October, 1914, p. 144. ]
[Footnote 38: The Secretary of the Malthusian League. Vide _The Declining
Birth-rate_, 1916, p. 99. ]
[Footnote 39: _The Month_, August 1916, p. 157, C. T. S. : 2_d_. ]
[Footnote 40: _The Hibbert Journal_, October 1914, p. 147. ]
[Footnote 41: _The Hibbert Journal_, October 1914, p. 150. ]
[Footnote 42: "Race-suicide and Dr. Bell," _America_, October 29, 1921, p.
31. ]
[Footnote 43: _Daily Chronicle_, April 25, 1910. ]
[Footnote 44: _Eighty-second Annual Report of the Registrar-General of
Births, Deaths, and Marriages in England and Wales_, 1919, p. 89. ]
[Footnote 45: Ibid. , p. xxvi. ]
[Footnote 46: _The Hibbert Journal_, October 1914, p. 141. ]
[Footnote 47: _The Family and the Nation_, 1909, pp. 139, 142. ]
[Footnote 48: Quoted in _Universe_, October 22, 1921. ]
[Footnote 49: Charles S. Devas, _Political Economy_, 2nd edition, 1901, p.
193. ]
[Footnote 50: Meyrick Booth, B. Sc. , Ph. D. , _The Hibbert Journal_, October
1914, pp. 142 and 152. ]
CHAPTER V
IS THERE A NATURAL LAW REGULATING THE PROPORTION OF BIRTHS AND DEATHS?
Section 1. THE THEORY OF THOMAS DOUBLEDAY REVIVED
In 1837 Thomas Doubleday [51] maintained that the rising birth-rate of his
own time was closely connected with the fall in the standard of living, and
his argument implied that, in order to check the excessive birth-rate, it
was necessary to improve the condition of the mass of the people. Four
years later he published _The True Law of Population_, wherein he stated
that when the existence of a species is endangered--
"A corresponding effort is invariably made by Nature for its
preservation and continuance by an increase of fertility, and that this
especially takes place whenever such danger arises from a diminution of
proper nourishment or food, so that consequently the state of depletion
or the deplethoric state is favourable to fertility, and that, on the
other hand, the plethoric state, or state of repletion, is unfavourable
to fertility in the ratio of the intensity of each state. "
By a series of experiments on plants Doubleday discovered that "whatever
might be the principle of manure, _an overdose_ of it invariably induced
sterility in the plant. " Although his formula is deficient in that food is
selected as the one factor in environment which influences fertility, and
although it may be an overstatement to claim that fertility varies in exact
proportion to abundance or to scarcity, nevertheless his formula contains
an important truth which literally knocks the bottom out of the whole
Malthusian case.
It is a sad reflection that, while the falsehoods of Malthus have been
blindly accepted for the greater part of a century, the work of Doubleday
was almost lost in oblivion. His shade has now been recalled to the full
centre of the stage, and for this the credit is due to Mr. C. E. Pell. His
recent book [52] is a stimulating essay on the declining birth-rate, and
contains much evidence that supports the main contention of Doubleday.
Although it is impossible to agree with all the deductions made by Mr.
Pell, he has nevertheless done a public service by restating the problem of
the birth-rate in a new way, by effectively bursting the Malthusian bubble,
and by tabulating fresh evidence against the birth-controllers.
Section 2. MR. PELL'S GENERALISATIONS CRITICISED
Mr. Pell defines the law of births and deaths in two generalisations. The
first is: "We have seen that it is a necessary condition of the success
of the evolutionary scheme that the variation of the inherited potential
degree of fertility between species and species must bear an inverse
proportion to their capacity for survival. " [53] At first glance this
statement appears hard to be understood; but it is obviously true--because
it means that a species that is well adapted to its environment can survive
with a low degree of fertility, whereas a species that is not well adapted
to its environment requires a high degree of fertility in order to survive.
Mr. Pell considers that a "capacity for survival" is synonymous with
"nervous energy"; but, as our total knowledge of nervous energy is limited
to the fact that it is neither matter nor any known force, the change in
words does not mark a real advance in knowledge.
The second generalisation is that "the variation of the degree of animal
fertility in response to the direct action of the environment shall bear
an inverse proportion to the variation of the survival capacity under
that environment. " [54] Here Mr. Pell and I part company. I have already
(Chapter III) disputed the causal connection between birth-rate and
death-rate which Mr. Pell here asserts. His generalisation is made by
assuming that birth-rates and death-rates rise and fall together: that
conditions which produce a high death-rate will also produce a high
birth-rate and that conditions which cause a low death-rate will also cause
a low birth-rate; that the increase or decline of a population is due to
the direct action of the environment; and finally that "the _actual_ degree
of fertility is decided by the direct action of the environment. " [55] On
that last rock Mr. Pell's barque sinks. The mistake here is analogous to
the old Darwinian fallacy, abandoned by Huxley and by Romanes, that natural
selection is a creative cause of new species. Even if the hypothesis of
evolution--and it is merely a hypothesis--be accepted, the only view
warranted by reason is that variation of species and their actual degree of
fertility may be produced, not by the direct action of environment, but by
the _reaction_ of species to their environment--a very different story.
There is no statistical evidence to prove a uniform correspondence between
birth-rates and death-rates, and it is improbable that there should be
a physical law of nature whose operations cannot be demonstrated by
mathematical proof. Moreover, we know that the same conditions which cause
a high birth-rate may cause a low death-rate. In the case of the first
settlers in a new country the death-rate is low because the diseases of
civilisation are absent and the settlers are usually young, whereas the
birth-rate is high. If fifty young married couples settle on the virgin
soil of a new country it is probable that for many years an enormous
birth-rate, of over 100, will coexist with a low death-rate.
In reality a high birth-rate may coexist with a low death-rate, or with a
high death-rate. For example, there is a difference between natural and
artificial poverty, the first being brought about by God, or, if any reader
prefers to have it so, by Nature, and the second being made by man. Under
conditions of natural poverty small groups of people in an open country are
surrounded by land not yet cultivated: whereas artificial poverty means
a population overcrowded and underfed, living in dark tenements or in
back-to-back houses, breathing foul air in ill-ventilated rooms seldom lit
by the sun, working long hours in gas-lit workshops for a sweated wage,
buying the cheapest food in the dearest market, and drugged by bad liquor.
In either case their existence is threatened, although for very different
reasons, and the birth-rate rises; but under conditions of natural poverty
the death-rate is low, whereas in slums the death-rate is high.
Section 3. THE LAW OF DECLINE
It would appear, then, that under conditions of hardship the birth-rate
tends to rise, and that in circumstances of ease the birth-rate tends to
fall. If the existence of the inhabitants in a closed country is threatened
by scarcity, the birth-rate tends to rise. For example, "In some of the
remote parts of the country, Orkney and Shetland, the population remained
practically stationary between the years 1801 and 1811, and in the next ten
years, still years of great scarcity, it increased 15 per cent. " [56]
The governing principle may be expressed in the following generalisation.
When the existence of a community is threatened by adversity the birth-rate
tends to rise; but when the existence of a community is threatened by
prosperity the birth-rate tends to fall. By adversity I mean war, famine,
scarcity, poverty, oppression, an untilled soil, and disease: and by
prosperity I mean wealth, luxury, idleness, a diet too rich--especially in
flesh meat--and over-civilisation, whereby the physical laws of nature
are defied. Now the danger of national decline owing to prosperity can
be avoided by a nation that observes the moral law, and this is the most
probable explanation of the fact that in Ireland, although the general
prosperity of the people has rapidly increased since George Wyndham
displaced landlordism over a large area by small ownership, the birth-rate
has continued to rise. Moreover, the danger to national existence, as we
have already indicated (Chapter I, Section. 10) is greater from moral than
from physical catastrophes, and when both catastrophes are threatened the
ultimate issue depends upon which of the two is the greater. Furthermore,
it would appear that moral catastrophes inevitably lead to physical
catastrophes.
