The rupee fell through 55 to the dollar as the central bank ordered exporters to convert half their receipts to the currency and otherwise intervened with over 250 billion in
reserves
on hand.
Kleiman International
China’s Hamstrung Hong Kong Hankering
2012 July 23 by admin
Posted in: Asia
Chinese stocks yawned in unchanged position for the year as the 15th anniversary of Hong Kong’s absorption was marked with a new chief executive close to Beijing, and mixed messages on dollar peg and offshore financial center direction. Incoming enclave leader Leung proclaimed a “proactive departure” which property and services firms interpret as likely higher taxes and state control. The shift comes as IPO activity was a meager $3 billion in the first half, one-tenth the 2011 sum as numerous deals were pulled or reworked to find critical cornerstone investors. Post-listing prices continue to plummet and stricter underwriter obligations involving potential criminal penalties are in force after prospectus frauds were uncovered by regulators. The exchange lagged Kuala Lumpur and Shanghai offerings for the period as the mainland unveiled an experimental blueprint for its own “mini-Hong Kong” in Shenzhen’s Qianhai sub-division. The zone would take shape from 2015-2020 as a free capital and currency trading hub which could presage broader exchange rate and portfolio flow liberalization. A previous framework authorizing pilot yuan convertibility in the city of Tianjin was overwhelmed by post-2008 crisis considerations, and the central bank has reiterated a mid-decade deadline for “basic” opening. With these future changes the former head of the HK Monetary Authority recently urged reconsideration of the 30-year old dollar peg, with allies recommending a switch to a basket including the renimbi, but Financial Secretary Tsang upheld the status quo. However the de-facto central bank announced a Chinese currency backstop facility in view of interbank liquidity strains in recent months especially with quieting of the bond “dim sum” market. According to fund trackers investors took money put of both debt and equity the past quarter as the BRICS cohort experienced outflows. In the US aversion is magnified in an election year as the bilateral trade surplus reverted to its historic norm and the Obama Administration filed a WTO complaint against car-import practices. Beijing faces an array of anti-protectionist actions in renewable energy, rare earths, and indigenous innovation requiring local technology transfer. On financial services it agreed to additional joint venture brokerage ownership in the last round of the Strategic and Economic Dialogue with Washington, and foreign hedge funds in July got permission to selectively solicit Chinese clients.
The breakthroughs occurred as outgoing Premier Wen “intensified the response” to acknowledged GDP tapering with public investment increases and interest rate cuts, while keeping commercial and residential property curbs intact. With food cost retreat inflation is at a 3-year 2 percent low, with reduced corporate pricing power reflected in anemic earnings inviting deflation talk. Reported PMIs have teetered at the critical 50 threshold, although many local governments have circumvented real estate restrictions with their own promotions as a national social housing push to build 35 million more units over the next 5-year plan may keep the edifice from crumbling.
The Euro’s Small Sickness Spots
2012 July 18 by admin
Posted in: Europe
Cyprus after weeks of speculation formally requested EU help to recapitalize its 3 main banks devastated by Greece’s 75 percent sovereign debt write-down and corporate cratering as the government’s communist president continued soliciting Russia for balance of payments support. The bailout total will likely exceed EUR 10 billion as long-term bond yields passed 15 percent on further ratings downgrades. Agencies calculate near-term debt/GDP above 100 percent as funds may soon be exhausted to pay civil servants. Direct intervention from the EFSF-ESM without a full adjustment program was asked as in Spain’s case, but Brussels has expressed longtime reservations with the island’s low tax and offshore depositor secrecy practices. Almost 40 years after the split negotiations with Turkey also remain stymied, with issues such as joint air and port access and division of new natural gas finds yet to be resolved. With the natural resource discovery officials have tried to interest the Chinese in access for loan deals thus far unsuccessfully. The stock exchange stayed at the bottom of Europe’s performance ranks on the application, with tiny Slovenia another recent euro adopter also languishing on talk its turn is next. There a major bank in part owned by a teetering Belgian group failed a previous stress test and must be strengthened to maintain ECB ties. The just-elected administration intends to use savings from pension cutbacks to reinforce the balance sheet, but public outcry over tampering with traditional social welfare provisions contributes to growing debt. It is below the accepted danger zone but moving toward 50 percent of GDP as the leadership denies any immediate outside rescue need either though bilateral or multilateral auspices. An approach in any event could be complicated by testy international donor relations with ex-Yugoslavia neighbor Serbia, where an ally of the former dictator and war criminal Milosevic won office as the IMF arrangement was derailed on fiscal policy lapses.
Greece meanwhile after another poll resulting in a conservative party-led coalition is attempting to normalize the relationship with the Troika, and in a first step named a Finance Minister who headed a think tank consulted by the monitors. Before talks were postponed Athens had agreed to find EUR 10 billion in additional budget scope to justify the next tranche’s release. Election victor Samaras had campaigned on achieving easier terms as annual output again plummets 5 percent but his platform for years has featured broad privatization which will not even hit the current modest EUR 3 billion target. The agency chief resigned after citing regular political meddling, as state dominated telecoms concern OTE prepared to sell assets abroad. MSCI took further steps to demote the bourse to emerging markets class in a lengthy review process that could go into 2014 on a designated downward trajectory.
UNCTAD’s Floundering FDI Flourish
2012 July 18 by admin
Posted in: Fund Flows
Geneva-based UNCTAD issued its annual global FDI picture with the $1. 5 trillion total in 2011 to stay flat this year and still one-quarter down from the pre-crisis apex. In recent months both M&A and greenfield investments “retreated,” but a “modest increase” is foreseen in the medium term toward the $2 trillion mark. According to its survey of multinational company executives a pessimistic outlook is the immediate consensus by a 10-point margin. Developing and transition economies take half the sum at $780 billion. All regions saw double-digit gains except Africa and the least-developed category; outbound FDI in turn declined on stagnation in Asia and 25 percent drawdown in Latin America with capital repatriation. Cross-border mergers came to $525 billion last year, while new projects were $900 billion. All industry segments—raw materials, manufacturing and services—rose with extraction, utilities and transport among the leaders. The trade body cites sovereign wealth funds with $5 trillion in assets as a growing source with over $30 billion in commitments to date. Data from the largest 100 transnational firms show cash levels including retained earnings at the same SWF combined amount. This “overhang” is due to financial market volatility and dividend payment and debt reduction policies. One-tenth of the hoard can be readily deployed representing $500 billion or one-third the current direct inflow figure. A separate attraction index ranks the top 10 destinations with Mongolia entering for the first time and a number of African countries moving toward that status including Ghana, Mozambique and Nigeria. Argentina, the Philippines and South Africa underperformed, while foreign affiliates’ economic impact is greatest in Europe as in the Czech Republic and Hungary. By region Africa’s fall to $45 billion was concentrated on the Arab North and Egypt and Libya in particular with their civil strife. Commodity price advance and middle class creation encouraged Sub-Sahara activity across a sector range including banking and retail.
Asia accounts for one-quarter of the global total but Asean member growth is catching up with China’s, the review remarks. For the Mainland’s record $125 billion counted in 2011 services outpaced manufacturing in contrast with the historic pattern. In Latin America offshore financial center flows dipped but overall expansion derived from consumer and natural resource outlays. In the outward channel intra-company loan transfer in Brazil was large at $20 billion and industrial policy translating into stricter licensing and procurement rules for the continent may deepen international firm presence in a “barrier hopping” strategy. The CIS grouping picked up after a period of stagnation with Russia’s WTO accession and a resumed privatization program. Kazakhstan continued to draw hydrocarbon interest and Russian banks and corporations have been active investors throughout their traditional geography. Promotional and free trade efforts have increased, with environmental and social sustainability criteria becoming standard to sustain this capital flow component.
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Indonesia’s Bank Shadow Play Shapes
2012 July 13 by admin
Posted in: Asia
Poor-performing Indonesian stocks were further battered after authorities announced new limits on foreign bank ownership in the middle of a high-profile transaction following the recent introduction of mining curbs. Both moves solidified the lone rating agency refusal to grant sovereign investment grade status on “policy slippage. ” and came as GDP growth projections were cut to the 6 percent range and the rupiah crashed the 9500 barrier on a combination of trade deficit and international portfolio exit. Singapore’s DBS had proposed the $7. 5 billion takeover of Bank Danamon but according to the new rules its stake would typically be confined to 40 percent although a 99 percent ceiling can apply on demonstration of “economic development benefits. ” The central bank claims the change will not affect existing shareholding but the scope for interpretation and regulatory delay may indefinitely suspend financial sector deals just as mineral ones ground to a halt on access and labor restrictions. To bolster the currency officials mobilized special dollar facilities as $110 billion in reserves cover less than two months’ imports. The move will again put the balance sheet at risk after previous large bond buying operations which gave commercial players pause. Commodity price easing has hurt exports but helped inflation as the benchmark interest rate stayed just under 6 percent with oil subsidy policy intact. President Yudhoyono is entering the twilight of his second term with corruption marks still abysmal at 100th on Transparency International’s “clean” ranking and jockeying for succession underway. Lawmakers have denied anti-graft commission funding and members have appealed directly to interested citizens for cash to obtain new premises. The President has also raised eyebrows within Asean for a go-slow approach on integration as the 2015 free-trade zone deadline nears. He has characterized the effort as comparable to the EU where rich-poor divides argue against “imitating the structure. ”
Elsewhere in East Asia Korea was again excluded from developed market graduation on continued short-selling and derivative constraints as a $2 billion oil refiner listing was scuttled on lackluster conditions and controversy surrounding the unit’s receipt of Iranian shipments in defiance of global sanctions. The government subsequently announced a total boycott in response to investor and diplomatic outcry and the offering’s withdrawal reflects a common regional pattern which has cramped Hong Kong in particular as Malaysia takes the surprise lead. GDP growth has dipped to 3 percent and a $7 billion public works stimulus was tabled both to deflect slowdown and ruling party criticism over a wiretapping scandal. The new president must also contend with savings bank failures which have resulted in executive suicides and the prospect of additional belligerence from the North. After a rocket lunch as the latest Kim took over severe drought arrived as peaceful unification hopes consistently turn arid.
Hungary’s Truculent Transaction Modes
2012 July 13 by admin
Posted in: Europe
The Budapest exchange fought to stay positive as IMF-EU compromise to allow program negotiations was again jeopardized by the Orban team’s insistence on imposing a transaction tax on the battered financial sector and applying it to central bank activities in defiance of Brussels rules. The monetary authority head continued to resist political criticism and overtures by dismissing the move as “dangerous and nonsensical” just as talks which had been suspended for previous steps to erode autonomy were to resume in Washington after preliminary gambits at the Bretton Woods institution spring meetings. The levy is designed to replace the special temporary one placed on banks after the Fidesz party assumed power, which along with its mortgage repayment plan at an artificially low exchange rate saddled them with a EUR 1 billion loss last year. The non-performing loan ratio is 15 percent, and S&P recently assigned the industry a high risk 7 score. Non-government credit has dwindled as foreign banks have withdrawn over EUR 10 billion, and non-bank institutional investors are now the biggest holders of local bonds in a concentrated mix of speculative hedge funds and diversified global houses like Templeton looking for yield advantage. The state development lender MFB has moved to expand its role by acquiring a cooperative network, and a separate agricultural window may soon be opened. The investment component of GDP is off sharply as recession is in the cards for 2012 with only a marginal pickup next year should the Eurozone crisis stabilize. The budget deficit should fall below the 3 percent critical threshold but public debt is still outsize at 80 percent of GDP with big IMF repayments for the 2008-09 rescue coming due. Inflation has dropped from the previous 5 percent level with the aid of reduced oil import costs which support a 2 percent of output current account surplus.
Romanian shares too are stuck in a flat range on an unprecedented round of government squabbling again placing the EUR 5 billion Fund facility in doubt as austerity targets are missed and the parliament pre-empts executive and judicial duties. President Basescu faces impeachment in a referendum for allegedly overstepping his bounds while the incumbent prime minister is under investigation for misrepresenting academic credentials. Elections already scheduled for November may be held earlier, delaying external assistance and dialogue until policymakers are designated. In Bulgaria poorly-performing stocks were lifted by a telecoms deal where Greece’s OTE will shed holdings, while the bond entry on the EMBI jumped with the first new issue in a decade which was snapped up on novelty value and fiscal and monetary caution that thus far has preempted resort to outside crisis aid. However Greek bank sales may soon follow the phone company as competitors contend with steep bad loan loads to pose a delayed discipline threat.
Africa’s Ratings Spotlight Shimmer
2012 July 11 by admin
Posted in: Africa
Decades after assigning it first Sub-Sahara Africa sovereign rating and long after expiration of a US government program that paid for the exercise, S&P added Rwanda to its 20-country universe and launched a standard quarterly publication for tracking regional trends. It comments that “solid” GDP growth from diversified commodity exports and trade stands in contrast to North Africa, although they both display governance and political risks. Banks, particularly in Nigeria, have also been covered the last five years, and companies as well will have to respond to investor transparency demands, the agency predicts. After post-crisis central bank intervention which rescued one-third of the industry while non-performing credit reached an equal proportion, regulation has improved but longer-term health is still in question, with internal controls crucial to managing high-margin segments and avoiding single-name concentration in the future. Mergers, interbank guarantees, and establishment of a central asset resolution arm have aided recovery but a record of stability has yet to be demonstrated over time. Nigeria’s sovereign B grade is a notch under neighboring oil powerhouse Angola’s due in part to this legacy. However the latter remains a single-party state and has more recently emerged from civil conflict. Both have major education, infrastructure and labor constraints although government debt levels are low. Their managed exchange rates and shallow financial markets limit monetary flexibility, and changes could mitigate shocks from petroleum price swings according to the analysis. Economic growth of 7 percent and strong current account surpluses will prevail in the two as post-election uncertainties likewise linger over the successor leadership generation. In Zambia a new administration has brought “uncoordinated and contradictory” views but copper exports at three-quarters of the total are firm on modest domestic and external debt burdens. GDP growth and inflation are put around 5 percent, but reversal of previous privatizations is a “concern” especially since the stance may be politically-driven.
Uganda has attracted attention with oil finds in the Eastern sub-region, but continues under currency depreciation and fiscal pressure with reliance on good rains and donor relations. The IMF has a policy support instrument in place but fertility and poverty rates point to mixed development progress. In the Francophone zone, tiny Benin with under $800 per capita income has benefited from official debt cancellation and government endurance with President Boni Yahi’s re-election to offset flooding and pirate attacks on the Cotonou port. Rwanda too was given a B in its maiden rating as business climate reforms were diluted by a “top-down” policy approach and unrest along the border with the Democratic Republic of Congo. Botswana is the continent’s sole investment-grade recipient as global diamond appetite has rebounded, but a large HIV-AIDS and jobless contingent have injected rough edges, the organization cautions.
Vietnam’s Beleaguered Bad Debt Battleground
2012 July 11 by admin
Posted in: Asia
Vietnamese shares topped the MSCI Asia frontier through July on a 20 percent increase despite the central bank’s admission that non-performing loans doubled the past year to one-tenth of state bank portfolios and prompted immediate creation of a single asset resolution unit with $5 billion in initial capital. However the overdue move to recognize and tackle the problem upgraded the sovereign ratings outlook to stable, as progress was also hailed on reducing inflation to single digits and paring the trade deficit which stands out in the Asean bloc. Food prices and credit growth have both dropped sharply as GDP growth halved to a 4 percent clip in Q1. With better monetary control 400 basis points of rate easing will come by year-end on programmed currency depreciation of 3 percent. International reserves have rebounded to around $20 billion by IMF calculation on a combination of aid, FDI, remittances and resident capital repatriation from gold and the dollar. Interest rates are now positive, but the fiscal gap will rise on wage hikes as public debt nears 50 percent of GDP. A tax reform scheme will broaden VAT and eliminate investment exemptions, although property may continue to escape stricter treatment. To raise revenue additional government enterprises may be listed on the stock market, and many have divested non-core operations in preparation. Banking cleanup is the subject of new legislation in effect until 2015 that will emphasize risk management and corporate governance overhaul after 2011’s introduction of blanket deposit insurance. The industry loan-deposit ratio is to drop under 100 percent by the end of the period and the biggest rehabilitated state-owned groups are to forge a regional footprint in Indochina and elsewhere. They already maintain ties in Cambodia and Laos which each recently launched securities markets, as well as in Myanmar which has just unified the exchange rate regime and seeks neighboring partners and assistance for banking modernization.
Thailand which is up 15 percent on the MSCI core roster is also positioning for the sudden area attention as former prime minister Thaksin spent part of his exile in the Cambodian capital. His successor sister in Bangkok has injected fresh political risk into the post-flood bounce-back by championing a reconciliation law for re-entry without criminal charge after a 2008 corruption conviction. “Yellow shirts” again took to the streets to block parliamentary action, while the red shirt supporters of premier Yingluck are in turn dismayed by the lack of military prosecutions for protester killings in 2010. The constitutional court has challenged the bill, which would also allow the ousted telecoms company founder to reclaim seized assets. Although domestic and external demand have steadied the GDP growth forecast is down to 3-4 percent as concentric comeback fights rage.
Egypt’s Beguiling Brotherhood Feelings
2012 July 5 by admin
Posted in: MENA
Muslim Brotherhood candidate Morsi won a narrow presidential election victory over former regime stalwart Shafiq a week after the military annulled parliament in a continuing power struggle as equities seesawed while maintaining their MSCI core universe lead. Tahrir Square again erupted in cheers and Freedom and Justice party advisers expressed confidence IMF negotiations for a $3 billion loan to replenish reserves would soon resume, but the EU, World Bank and EBRD were forced to suspend assistance mainly for infrastructure projects pending clarification of the government apparatus and composition. The blow coincided with another ratings outlook downgrade for the sovereign and banks, as S&P estimated a 50 percent chance of deterioration over the coming quarter with political instability harming credit fundamentals. The 40 percent state-run banking sector is “fragmented” with high tourism, real estate and Treasury bond exposure, and rewriting the constitution could introduce further “distortionary” mandates, the agency found. $2 billion in capital account inflows have come from the Saudis and Islamic Development Bank, but foreign portfolio appetite remains depressed despite single-digit stock p/e ratios and double-digit fixed-income yields. A takeover of Mobilnil telecom holdings brought a rare cross-border deal as the chaotic and extended post-Mubarak transition dictates a wait-and-see stance. Investors are skeptical that even with a coherent official lineup subsidy reform can quickly curb the fiscal deficit as domestic debt approaches 80 percent of GDP, and that a massive devaluation as indicated by the 30 percent lower NDF reading can be averted with the 60 percent reserve loss the past 18 months. The current account remains in slight deficit despite solid Suez Canal earnings and remittances, and continued company and privatization investigations have claimed prominent businesses such as regional broker EFG-Hermes which was sold to Qatari interests. Top Egyptian executives like Orascom’s Sawiris have turned their attention abroad, especially to picking up cheap European assets rather than handling new complexities at home. A $1 billion local currency Euroclearable instrument is due in July as its illiquid distressed return spiked to 40 percent in the hands of hedge fund speculators. In FDI big energy and utility contacts remain in limbo, including a $10 billion BP oil and gas venture.
Arab Spring originator Tunisia has been downgraded as well as this year’s gross external financing needs will exceed balance of payments proceeds and available reserves. Banks continue to be hammered by “widespread” loan principal and interest restructurings, and uncertainty surrounds the 2013 scheduled elections although they should occur “without major political conflict. ” However a curfew was re-imposed in the capital after unemployed ultra-religious Salafists rioted following a court ruling against former strongman Ben Ali, and the interim Islamic administration removed technocrat central bank governor Nabli for too-tight fiscal and monetary policies which suggested a zero score for the Nada party’s populist campaign promises.
Mexico’s Slick Oiled Machine Mastery
2012 July 5 by admin
Posted in: Latin America/Caribbean
Mexican PRI standard-bearer Pena Nieto returned the party to Los Pinos after a decade in opposition in a 5-point victory over presidential runner-up AMLO in a race marred by vote fraud allegations. The ruling PAN nominee finished a distant third despite her novelty as the first major female entrant as she suffered from the unpopularity of the outgoing Calderon administration and failed to articulate a competing vision. Shares rose with the clear margin, but were restrained by the legislative results which split the ticket and will require compromise to advance proposed energy and tax adjustments. The winner who takes office in December called on Pemex to “do more” with private partners without offering specifics. Advisers admit consideration of Brazil’s Petrobras model where a stake is publically listed on the exchange but point to the revenue sensitivity of ceding ownership, placing emphasis on additional fiscal measures through VAT and corporate levies. Initial progress was notched the past six years on these fronts but the tax take still hovers around 10 percent of GDP with additional security and social spending embedded in the budget. President Calderon cited such achievements in his valedictory as the G-20 summit host in Los Cabos, where big emerging markets committed lines to double the IMF’s loan capacity. He departs on a positive note with economic growth and inflation both at 4 percent on a steady peso which has allowed the central bank to stay hands off. Post-election the currency has been a favorite overweight against the prevailing Euro-crisis trend of depreciation against the dollar, and is reflected in 30 percent foreign holding of local bonds. With FDI also steady even as drug gangs appeared to target multinationals, foreign exchange reserves have doubled since the Lehman period and the next government may decide not to extend the IMF’s pre-approved backup facility.
At the company level, Pena Nieto’s antitrust stance will be closely followed in media and telecoms, as wealthy groups continue to expand within the region, including billionaire Slim’s purchase of nationalized YPF stock in Argentina. In debt the Vitro bankruptcy saga continues to pit distressed funds against management in a fight that tests both the new Mexican chapter 11 code and traditional magnate prerogative. The trial turns on an inside maneuver that gave subsidiaries outsize creditor control and the proceedings have multiplied from Monterrey to US jurisdictions. These defaults stem from the post-2008 aftermath in contrast with Brazil, where utilities and mid-size banks have recently declared non-payment. A June report by Moody’s noted a “speedy” negative ratings drift by corporate issuers with their heavy commodity and cyclical exposure. As Pemex eyes the precedent Petrobras has consistently lagged production and profit forecasts and the fresh executive team has unveiled “more realistic” numbers taking into account the legacy of state interference.
The World Bank’s Aid and Trade Finance Funk
2012 June 29 by admin
Posted in: General Emerging Markets
The World Bank’s June Global Economic Prospects publication urged developing countries to brace for a “sharp turn for the worse” as it pared the baseline growth scenario with all regions except Sub-Sahara Africa lagging 2011 on a 5 percent-plus aggregate prediction. It urged budget deficit control and neutral monetary policy to reduce vulnerability to a “long period of tougher times” globally including in aid and trade credit flows. Net overseas development assistance dropped to $135 billion last year for the first time in a decade according to the OECD, especially from non-Scandinavian Europe. The 0. 7 percent of GDP target remains distant for the majority of members and the poorest recipients have seen share diverted to post-rebellion North Africa. European commercial banks at the same time have cut export funding 20 percent on an annual basis through the first quarter, and smaller and low-income economy-domiciled firms have been spurned the most with higher risk ratings under Basel III standards. South Asia has experienced a severe squeeze while East and Central Asia have held relatively firm. The World Bank’s IFC arm has reactivated its post-2008 facility and recently added a program to back commodity trading in response to the cross-border retreat in short-term debt due to continue for “years to come. ” The total capital inflow forecast for developing and emerging markets is equally sober with a one-fifth gross fall to $185 billion through May. Bonds have represented $100 billion as the only “boom” category with a record $7 billion individual issue by Brazil’s Petrobras, while bank lending and equity offering were both off one-third. FDI, with re-invested earnings taking 30 percent of the total, will sustain the 15 percent recent setback through year-end as private allocation in sum stays under $800 billion versus 2011’s near $1 trillion.
An immediate contagion risk comes from Greek-owned lenders with Europe and CIS ties where the Vienna Initiative goodwill threatens to be swamped by balance sheet weakness and supervisory gaps between the home and host countries. In the medium-term emerging market borrowers should prepare for scarcer capital at steeper rates which could lead to 5 percent output shrinkage. NPLs which could routinely be understated as in the cases of China and Vietnam will likely spike and may already be triple the reported ratio applying international practice. Chinese state banks have unknown local government debt exposures which could soon become defaults. Ratings agencies have downgraded institutions across a geographic range for both parent and subsidiary problems, including in Chile, Argentina, Russia and Bulgaria. Many sectors are extremely concentrated where the top five competitors handle over half of assets, with Peru and South Africa heading the power curve at 90 percent.
Russia’s Flagging Energy Edicts
2012 June 29 by admin
Posted in: Europe
Russian stocks were down 10 percent at the rear of the MSCI main Emerging Europe pack as partial energy privatizations were sidetracked by a move to first consolidate interests in a holding company to be run by close Putin chum Sechin. Technocrats reclaimed third term cabinet posts but the power balance remains intact with so-called Medvedev modernizers on the back foot despite majority opinion polls demanding fundamental political and economic shifts. The repeat administration has also refused to flinch at Western criticism of its support for Syria’s Assad and rule of law defects in high-profile cases involving oligarchs and investors. In the latest controversy the TNK-BP joint venture has again dissolved into recriminations with the Kremlin, Alfa Group head Friedman and multinational company executives presenting opposite views. GDP growth was 5 percent in Q1 and inflation has come down to the same level but capital flight was $35 billion for the period and oil prices have since tumbled to under $100/barrel. The central bank has been on hold as the ruble fell to 38/dollar, which may accelerate the timetable for placing local OFZ paper in the Euroclear system for simpler access. In inaugural speeches President Putin outlined specific commercial and structural aims but audiences noted a resemblance to previously unmet pledges. During this tenure he wants to raise investment and the high-tech portion of GDP to 30 percent and advance 100 spots in the World Bank’s “Doing Business” list. His remarks turned to epithets for street protesters denounced as illegitimate and he accused the US and Europe of fomenting Cold war sentiments with exclusion threats as he stayed away himself from the G-8 Camp David summit in May.
Russian state banks on the other hand are pursuing continental engagement as Eurozone counterparts shed prize assets. Sberbank has already acquired the Austrian Volksbanken network and is near a $4 billion deal to buy Dexia’s former stake in Turkey’s Denizbank. Citigroup is also divesting its share in blue-chip Akbank, which hit the Istanbul exchange still in positive mode. Prime Minister Erdogan has welcomed back the World Economic Forum after walking out in a huff several years ago, and also announced the resumption of EU accession talks and an initiative to establish a Turkish ratings agency after S&P lowered the sovereign outlook to stable. The current account deficit has narrowed slightly but inflation remains in double-digits as the central bank has tightened its rate channels for price and exchange rate stability. The lira is again up marginally against the dollar, and credit growth has slowed to 15 percent. The primary budget surplus rose to 2 percent of GDP enabling tax removal for mutual funds and greater leeway for private pension launch to inject new energy.
Capital Flows’ Strange Subdued Spirit
2012 June 25 by admin
Posted in: Fund Flows
The IIF bid farewell to its longtime managing director as it lifted the early year $750 billion emerging market capital inflow estimate 20 percent to over $900 billion in still “subdued and subject to unusually large downside” conditions. The ECB massive liquidity operation temporarily helped sentiment but “mood swings” have reversed with crisis spread and universe pivot China, which accounted for the bulk of the higher projection, also feeding mixed growth, currency and investment expectations. Latin America was the other marginally upgraded region, while Europe and the Middle East/Africa both stayed flat. Annual ambivalence is reflected in recent fund-tracking data showing across-the-board asset class exit despite the relatively unchanged 5 percent GDP growth forecast and government debt levels. A disorderly Greek euro departure would have “severe repercussions” as money was stashed in safe havens and an external funding squeeze hit Central Europe. FDI will be off $25 billion from 2011 at $500 billion and mainly target services, which now outstrips manufacturing and natural resources for the 30 countries covered. Net portfolio equity will triple from last year’s dismal $20 billion as p/e ratios are in line with historical trends, while commercial bank lending will halve to $75 billion on global deleveraging and capital replenishment prods. Bond commitments at $275 billion are off from previous records but the yield pickup over G-3 instruments sustains the pipeline. Official assistance from the IMF and bilateral sources is put at $50 billion for 2012 and 2013 chiefly directed to Europe’s periphery. Outstanding Fund credit was over $150 billion as of the Camp David summit decision to raise future capacity to almost $1 trillion, with Greece, Ireland and Portugal taking half the amount followed by Romania, Ukraine and Hungary.
China, which subscribed to the increase, however will experience a one-third inward private capital fall to $200 billion as the debt-creating portion dips to $75 billion. Despite foreign investor opening as with the more than doubling of the QFII quota to $80 billion and expansion of the investment bank and brokerage local ownership limit to 49 percent, economic growth will “slip” to 8 percent on a diminished trade surplus and profit and remittance current account stream as the currency likewise weakens against the dollar in the coming months going into leadership transitions in Beijing and Washington. India is confronted by its own balance of payments “travails” according to the association, and the central bank will continue to draw on its $300 billion reserve pile for rupee support. Turkey’s inflows have been stable but come in part from volatile unidentified channels to bridge its “outsize” external deficit. In Latin America Argentina and Venezuela are notorious for “anti-business policies” and in the Mideast Egypt’s $25 billion in financing needs through next year will be a multiple of the $3 billion IMF facility that the new government may pursue along with easier non-resident equity access to redirect fervor.
India’s Lachrymose License Raj Litany
2012 June 25 by admin
Posted in: Asia
Indian shares struggled for positive ground as Q1 GDP growth came in at a decade low of 5. 3 percent, 4 percent off the preceding period, with the Finance Minister blaming poor manufacturing data in particular.
The rupee fell through 55 to the dollar as the central bank ordered exporters to convert half their receipts to the currency and otherwise intervened with over 250 billion in reserves on hand. Sentiment was already fragile after S&P slashed the sovereign rating outlook to negative placing in jeopardy its bottom investment-grade status. The agency pointed to backtracking on sector opening and tax policies and consecutive 8 percent fiscal deficits bringing public debt to 70 percent of GDP. To tackle the gap the government again announced energy subsidy cuts that were met with widespread labor union protests. Initial proposals to go after offshore-channeled portfolio and direct inflows though Mauritius and other tax havens were delayed but investigations into previous deals such as the argued $3 billion bill for Vodafone’s local acquisition will continue. After the reversal net debt and equity allocation resumed, aided by decisions to allow individual investor access and raise the institutional corporate bond ownership ceiling. The former shift may not dramatically increase interest in the near term as expatriates and foreign retail players already manage entry through ETFs, while the latter asset class has sparked jitters with several defaults as $3. 5 billion must be repaid by borrowers through year-end according to traders. Convertible bond prices have also slumped as analysts foresee a wave of restructurings mostly involving maturity extension at first. On the macro front food-driven inflation remains at double digits precluding monetary stimulus even though the benchmark rate was recently reduced. In external accounts the current account deficit is core Asia’s worst at 4 percent of GDP and is further pressured by the need to diversify fuel import sources with Iranian sanctions and the outward FDI push by big family conglomerates promoting competitive alternatives.
Telecoms license holders who had their authorizations revoked in a sweeping court judgment have been particularly reluctant to reaffirm their presence. Many decry the “policy paralysis” since the ruling coalition was re-elected and prefer to postpone major commitments until the next contest in 2014 which will likely feature a new leadership generation. With one-third of the population still in poverty by official statistics social spending remains a priority despite evidence of huge waste in both urban and agricultural programs. Industrial exports get support and free trade pacts are now high on the agenda including with traditional enemy Pakistan. Renewable power is another focus with global technology transfer potential with $10 billion in activity in 2011 alongside the controversial bilateral nuclear cooperation pact with the US which thus far has yielded sparse results. Experts believe that solar is particularly promising and can be spun into gold amid unalloyed commercial and household appreciation of it value.
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Hungary’s Legal Maneuvering Delays
2012 June 20 by admin
Posted in: Europe
Hungarian stocks were flat and foreign investors held their one-third local debt position despite the floundering forint, as the EU-ECB and IMF continued to bicker over central bank law revisions needed to launch formal program negotiations which have already lost momentum from other disputes and Budapest delegation turnover. Independence is at stake with the government’s power over governor and monetary policy committee appointments, as incumbents kept the 7 percent benchmark rate intact as they tried to balance recession and confidence imperatives. Q1 output contraction was over 0. 5 percent, with particular weakness in financial services as NPLs jumped to 15 percent of the total and a new transaction tax was previewed. Parent banks have withdrawn over EUR 10 billion the past two years although the industry loan-deposit ratio remains at 120 percent. The grim reading followed the European Commission’s retraction of its cohesion fund cutoff threat as fiscal deficit plans were reworked to come in under 3 percent of GDP, but lingering doubts retain the broader excess deficit sanction. With basic challenges to economic approaches and assumptions unlikely to be resolved quickly with the strong personalities and positions on both sides and approaching summer break, a standby deal may not be feasible until early fall and choppy external debt markets could preclude excess for the duration. The currency was off almost 10 percent against the falling euro in May, and domestic bond auctions experience regular buyers’ strikes as yields creep toward double-digits and the overseas base dwindles to a handful of opportunistic and large global players seeking incremental carry. Romania, which has a EUR 5 billion precautionary line, may find that sum insufficient as it is equal to Greek bank subsidiary deposits subject to a run on Eurozone exit talk and post-election Troika disbursement refusal. GDP growth is under 1 percent and inflation is double that figure, as the central bank is on hold to maintain bilateral and multilateral support after the caretaker government won wage and pension concessions to quell popular disquiet within the agreed fiscal envelope. A new World Bank $1 billion package will be used as a financial system safeguard and another external bond issue may be forthcoming with currency calm.
The Budapest exchange is down only 5 percent, in comparison with simultaneous EU accession choice Bulgaria where the loss is six times greater. There Greek-run operations account for one-third the banking sector and bad and restructured credit absorbs one-quarter of portfolios. However the current account balance is now positive and the currency board based on fiscal reserves imposes discipline which despite political pleas have pre-empted recourse to outside assistance. The prime minister, as a former World Bank official, was instrumental in establishing the “Doing Business” rankings and he has spearheaded anti-corruption campaigns yet to restrain other forms of undesirable behavior according to Brussels enforcers.
The Philippines’ Partnership Pursuit Pulse
2012 June 20 by admin
Posted in: Asia
The Philippines Stock Exchange ahead double digits continued to pace Asean as it hosted the ADB annual meeting at Manila headquarters with a flurry of public-private infrastructure initiatives lifting property and construction listings. The national insurance fund will launch a dedicated investment vehicle and two toll roads were authorized by President Aquino with a completion deadline by the end of his term. Despite slowing exports and an island territorial spat with big trade partner China GDP growth was 6. 5 percent the past quarter as inflation also calmed after topping 5 percent keeping the central bank on hold. Remittances provide support for a 5 percent balance of payments surplus also aided by a new tourism campaign and planned overhaul of the state airline in which conglomerate San Miguel has a 49 percent stake. On the tax front legislators have backed alcohol and tobacco levies which may further reduce the fiscal deficit from last year’s 2 percent of GDP. An anti-corruption sweep snagged the head of the Supreme Court for not disclosing financial assets and has former President Arroyo in its sights, although a bar on foreign travel for her to get medical treatment is considered punitive. Long-delayed agricultural reform has also resulted in the breakup of large plantations, including a sugar tract controlled for generations by the Aquinos. In Thailand the Shinawatra family saga has stifled share momentum under a post-flood V-shaped recovery as the prime minister insists her brother be allowed to return from exile as part of the reconciliation process which could include a bid to overturn asset seizures. Foreign investors had allocated almost $3 billion through April, and the currency has stayed relatively firm with the central bank benchmark at 3 percent. A 40 percent minimum wage increase for rural workers went into effect following a Yingluck campaign promise, as the Moslem insurgency in the south resurfaced with several car bombings.
The military with 50,000 troops there has increased border coordination with counterparts in Malaysia as it commences an election cycle where a minimum salary rise from the ruling party has also featured. The central bank argues the increment will not be inflationary and will instead aid domestic consumption. Prime Minister Najib has a 70 percent approval rating but the government as a whole has just 45 percent backing. The opposition endorses higher education and health spending and a crackdown on cronyism which has favored the Malay business and political elite. Energy subsidies remain a sensitive issue for both sides and foster the chronic 5 percent of GDP budget deficit. Fund managers backtracked heavily in Indonesia after it reversed course on rollbacks and mounted currency and bond market interventions. New taxes and employment mandates were also imposed on mining investment highlighting regional partnership perils.
Poland’s Football Cup Fumbles
2012 June 13 by admin
Posted in: Europe
Polish stocks followed neighbors into year-to-date losses as construction woes led to another big builder bankruptcy despite the hospitality and infrastructure push from co-hosting of the Euro 2012 soccer competition. A road project had already been reassigned from Chinese control after multiple failures, and PBG’s high-profile implosion battered all industry listings as last-ditch talks with creditors were ultimately in vain. The saga unfolded as the Warsaw Exchange trumpeted its status as a regional center at a week-long event introducing a new Central European sub-index. Before then economic officials, after bringing the GDP growth forecast below 3 percent, publically expressed anger at a central bank rate lift designed to quell inflationary and currency tensions. The second term Tusk administration may come close to the 3 percent of GDP EU fiscal target on lower local government transfers and better privatization proceeds and state company dividends. Longer-term the social security retirement age has been raised to 67 in a vote lambasted by labor unions, as the smaller contribution share to private pensions could also further drop. In external accounts, the current account gap will come in around 4 percent of output with additional international bond issuance slated and the IMF backup credit line in place until next January. Banks continued to register healthy Q1 results despite foreign parent pummeling as Chinese entrants joined the fray. Eurozone and mortgage tolls could dim the second-half outlook with management resorting to workforce reductions for bottom-line defense. As diplomats prepared to welcome game visitors they were embroiled in a dispute with Washington after President Obama misspoke at a ceremony honoring a World War II anti-Nazi resistance fighter who became a popular university professor.
In co-host Ukraine, outside outrage over the confinement and treatment of the opposition leader continues to mount with several European government heads planning to boycott the matches. The bourse is the bottom area performer with an almost 40 percent MSCI frontier decline, and local-currency bond auctions receive no bids on depreciation expectations with the unhinged IMF program and flat capital inflows to bridge the 5 percent of GDP current account divide. A recent Eurobond payment was met, and the sovereign came to terms with Russia’s VTB bank over $2 billion owed this month by agreeing to pay half and extending the rest until 2014. President Yanukovych has delayed gas subsidy overhaul until fall parliamentary elections as his team haggles with the extended Putin regime over new cost and distribution arrangements. However his natural resource and anti-pariah hand may have been strengthened with unconventional hydrocarbon finds that have attracted Chevron and Shell to explore. The interest may detract from reports of beatings and withheld medical attention for jailed former prime minister Tymoshenko and insider contract deals to the President’s business allies for Cup facilities leaving a sour taste.
Central America’s Staying Power Stamp
2012 June 13 by admin
Posted in: Latin America/Caribbean
Dominican Republic bonds featuring on the core EMBI seesawed as the ruling party nudged a victory in a split presidential contest amid claims of widespread vote-buying and a smear campaign recalling the opposition candidate’s tenure during the last decade’s banking crisis. The winning PRD will control both chambers in congress and the vice president will be outgoing head Fernandez’s spouse. Incoming President Medina campaigned on “safe change” despite a wave of drug-related crime, clashes with island partner Haiti over immigration, and derailment of the IMF program on unfulfilled electricity and fiscal reforms. Remittances and tourism continue to drive 5 percent GDP growth, and the current account deficit should narrow on lower oil costs. Macquila exports have faded but telecoms and mining activity help absorb the slack, on relative inflation and exchange rate stability. BB-rated Guatemala went beyond the original $500 million 10-year paper to place $700 million at a 6 percent yield with 150 chiefly US buyers. The Perez administration has aimed to quickly establish international confidence with a security and tax push that will take revenues above 10 percent of GDP to leave a budget gap of 2. 5 percent. El Salvador may soon follow with external debt as the post-election political formation pursues its own fiscal consolidation, aided by signature of a pilot partnership for growth program with the US engaging both the public and private sectors in policy change. With one of the world’s worst murder rates, it is also struggling with the reconstruction aftermath of tropical storms as the area enters another hurricane season. Costa Rica is courting investors after a corporate utility there tapped the market as top officials hold meetings in New York and Washington. Panama, although a top-grade credit has recently been shunned as property development has cooled and President Martinelli has been implicated in a scandal involving Italian company executives.
English-speaking Belize has rallied as an outperformer on JP Morgan’s NEXGEM index on the prospect of a consensual restructuring for the high-coupon “Superbond,” and in the neighboring Caribbean the new Jamaican government has completed preliminary talks on reactivating the IMF standby agreement. Global bond return has however been stymied by the likelihood of another total debt re-profiling which may this time entail haircuts on both domestic and foreign instruments. Barbados is in pre-election mode with its investment-grade status at risk despite long-term maturities and a captive social security funding pool. Hydrocarbons source Trinidad and Tobago will keep that rank although fracking competition may dent natural gas values. It has traditionally generated balance of payments surpluses and energy producers vastly prefer the operating climate to regional aspirants like Bolivia, which managed a sovereign upgrade after another May Day natural resource firm expropriation wrapped the pole.
Argentina’s Corrosive Currency Blues
2012 June 11 by admin
Posted in: Latin America/Caribbean
Argentine bonds and equities remained global laggards as the informal “blue” peso rate hit 6 to the greenback despite dollar bond selling by the state pension fund as traveler capital control reporting was stiffened and the real estate market froze in the absence of foreign currency. Spain’s Repsol suspended natural gas supplies after the 51 percent acquisition of local operations which corporate executives and diplomats vow to fight through courts and arbitration. With President Fernandez getting a popularity bump with the action and electricity distributors on their backs without tariff adjustment, they may be next to fall under government control as the primary fiscal position heads for deficit for the first time in a decade. GDP growth will likely not reach the 3. 25 percent needed to trigger debt warrants as inflation by private reckoning exceeds 20 percent as the IMF has ended attempts to find a common methodology. Corn and soy exports have been good after experiencing drought, but grain producing provinces seek to raise taxes to reduce reliance on federal transfers. In Washington lobbyists and lawmakers continue to exert pressure to sever bilateral ties. At the latest G-20 gathering the Argentine delegation was snubbed for compromising investor protection and not honoring World Bank compensation decisions. In New York an appeals hearing is due on definition of the pari-passu clause as it applies to existing external bond installments that plaintiffs won the right to seize under an earlier ruling. Paris Club negotiations have not resumed as Vice President Boudou who spearheaded outreach is now under investigation for corruption during his tenure as finance minister. In the region a trade war has erupted with Brazil over mutual duty imposition which may indefinitely defer Mercosur pact revival. A spat with Colombia also surfaced with discovery of a bomb planted at a site visited by former president Uribe during a Buenos Aires stay as security measures were questioned.
A well-known oil executive was appointed to head YPF, but the Economy vice-minister who along with the President’s son is sympathetic to Marxist approaches is on the board. Labor unions that fell out with the administration before winning a 30 percent wage increase just prior to last year’s elections are gearing up for a similar settlement this round. Relations with the UK are at a nadir on the anniversary of the Falklands battle after the government tried to garner support for its enduring island claims at the recent Americas summit. It has also alienated the so-called domestic oligarchs as illustrated by YPF’s takeover fallout for the Eskanazis and their Peterson flagship. They purchased a major stake with a loan to be reimbursed by dividends at the urging of President Kirchner, whose tragic heart attack may now be reflected on the clan.
South Africa’s Retouched Portrait Strokes
2012 June 11 by admin
Posted in: Africa
South African securities were buffeted by angry demonstrations by ANC loyalists after an artist’s unflattering depiction of President Zuma, which seemed to cross the free speech boundary into criminal slander in an episode recalling former youth wing leader Malema’s denunciations which resulted in party expulsion after he labeled the administration a “dictatorship. ” His suspension lasts five years but does not preclude a government challenge at the upcoming December congress to pick the next election’s candidates. Malema had been warned about angry ant-imperialist and pro-nationalization rhetoric before the action, as dissatisfaction with political management has spread both internally and externally. A passage in Nedbank’s annual report gained wide circulation in citing “leadership degeneration and unaccountable democracy” as business risks. Ratings agencies have referred to populist and corruption drags in downgrading the sovereign outlook which otherwise suffers from a bad brew of low growth, high unemployment, and a chronic current account deficit. Inflation at the upper target has settled at 6 percent, and the latest budget reiterated discipline commitments but the fiscal deficit is projected at 4. 5 percent of GDP as public debt moves past 40 percent. Trade unions continue to remind the President’s team of their 5 million job creation goal and recently gutted a wage subsidy scheme as insufficient and overturned a toll road plan in Guateng province that would hit truckers and workers. The reversal spurred an immediate downgrade in the transport agency’s 20 billion rand debt and added to the contingent liability burden already prominent with power monopoly Eskom. The saga coincided with reports of massive fraud in social welfare grants which now are quadruple the taxpayer rolls and the run-up to June public sector salary negotiations which are expected to again prompt strikes and walkouts. The groups also still advocate for greater currency intervention as the rand has erased previous dollar strength with Eurozone and commodities fallout. The combination of negative factors outweighed the country’s entrance into well-known global bond indices as a fractional component joining other emerging markets Malaysia, Mexico and Poland.
Elections in independent enclave Lesotho pose another hazard as the longtime incumbent faces real opposition in a race marred by sporadic violence. Basic health and sanitation are lacking and one-quarter of adults have HIV-AIDS. Aid and remittances drive the economy, with textiles also contributing under US free trade treatment. Polls may likewise be imminent in Zimbabwe after rumors that President Mugabe was on his deathbed during a visit to Singapore. He has vowed to dissolve the shaky coalition and bring one last victory to the Zanu-PF party, which has enforced the indigenization law with community bequests from financial and mining companies trying to clarify the investment picture.
Latin America’s Raging Resilience Reservations
2012 June 5 by admin
Posted in: Latin America/Caribbean
After repeated reassurances by private and official bodies that the region was well-positioned for 4 percent GDP growth and capital market outperformance in the face of US, Eurozone and Chinese wobbles, other countries followed early fallen BRIC Brazil into downgrades and selloffs, especially as active Spanish bank troubles dominated headlines. Brazilian fund data show that bond outflows from Western and Japanese investors have joined equities at the bottom of the core universe index heap, with no end in sight to central bank rate reductions on barely positive economic expansion. The institution has intervened heavily to prevent the real reaching 2 per dollar with inflation transmission already over 5 percent. Fiscal policy has been tweaked to support consumer demand with tax exemptions while keeping the 3 percent of GDP primary surplus target. Banks have been urged to extend credit despite rising personal loan arrears as deals for smaller intermediaries reliant on wholesale lines have gone astray and may require state rescues. Industrial output remains in sad shape with agricultural exports also waning to China which is now a key destination. Mexican securities had benefited from redeployment until recently, with growth in the 3-4 percent range mirroring tepid US trends, as opinion surveys reported leftist candidate AMLO gaining ground on the PRI frontrunner in the July presidential race. Multinational PepsiCo also received direct threats from drug gangs suggesting the conflict could implicate strategic investors, and a standing central bank facility was tapped to stem peso decline. With oil prices dipping below $100/barrel PEMEX proceeds may suffer although it again hedged the risk as labor activists called on the three political parties to delay greater private opening.
Lower petroleum FDI may also hit Colombia, which has been the area darling with the US free trade pact entering force and the Santos Administration passing fiscal stability and civil war reconciliation laws. Interest rate hikes to cool consumer credit have paused and the 5 percent GDP growth forecast has been scaled back with big family-run groups increasingly following a sub-regional strategy that eyes expansion in MILA partners Chile and Peru. In the former President Pinera is under siege from university protesters and miners resisting change at government-owned Codelco, while Peruvian counterpart Humala likewise is caught in the natural resources debate crossfire after a big project compromise unraveled with environmental demonstrator deaths. Foreign investors control 60 percent of local debt and reserve requirements have been tightened to prevent rapid exit with the country as well qualifying for an IMF contingency line. Andean nervousness is due to be heightened by Venezuela’s course over the coming months, with dire health reports for president Chavez raising the odds of pre-election succession and paring the half-year success of benchmark external bonds.
Ethiopia’s Dam-Breaking Trickle
2012 June 5 by admin
Posted in: Africa
Ethiopia, which hosts a World Bank-backed commodities exchange with $1 billion in coffee and agricultural trading volume and overnight settlement often cited as a model, hosted Africa’s World Economic Forum event in new China-built and funded premises as it launched a diaspora bond for the $5 billion Grand Renaissance dam and the UK’s CDC venture arm joined with a local group to launch a $100 private equity vehicle. The bond issue follows previous efforts aimed at tapping the savings of two million expatriates at denominations as low as $50. At home banks and individuals have been the main subscribers, with government workers often exhorted to participate. GDP growth at double-digits paces the continent’s non-oil economies, although 35 percent inflation also tops neighbors due to runaway state spending and borrowing to be curbed under a 5-year “transformation program” decades-serving President Zenawi has unveiled to secure donor support after criticism of political and press intolerance. In 2010 the ruling party and its allies won over 99 percent in elections amid an opposition roundup and platform of barring foreign investment in banking, telecoms, retailing and other strategic sectors. His administration has however opened vast land tracts to commodity cultivation including to the Schulze family interests which established multinational conglomerate Newmont Mining and is the domestic partner for the PE fund. International food and beverage firms have recently completed acquisitions despite limited purchasing power with the high poverty rate. Indian companies are the largest overseas investors with a total $4. 25 billion commitment, while Saudi and Turkish projects are among the top single allocations. Gold and oils seeds are behind coffee as export earners, and education and infrastructure are core priorities of the current 5-year plan.
Officials also will press to improve rankings across a host of “Doing Business” benchmarks where they lag in the region and among low-income peers. Development Bank dominates the field but private competitors have introduced electronic payment and other innovations. Cement is controlled by family and non-state operations and tourism has attracted major global hotel chains. The country is a main target for the food security initiative organized by the G-8 and private agricultural giants at the May Camp David Summit. The US already has an active “Feed the Future” program under bilateral assistance which intends to soon emphasize small company and financial services development. In retail lending a cautionary tale may be next-door Kenya, where activity jumped one-third last year to $2 billion and has sustained a torrid pace despite central bank rate hikes to 18 percent. NPLs are modest at 5 percent of the book and residential property values continue to climb amid “bubble” talk and Nairobi bombings said to be perpetrated by Somali fighters flouting previous boundaries.
Africa’s Panoramic View Distortions
2012 June 3 by admin
Posted in: Africa
Sub-Saharan stock markets got little lift from the IMF’s latest regional GDP growth forecast which kept the 5 percent expectation for another year while cautioning about commodity, Eurozone and pan-Africa banking group risks. Through May Kenya and Nigeria climbed double-digits and Botswana, Ghana, Mauritius and Zimbabwe were flat or negative. The report hailed “new resilience” driven by underlying youthful demographics, urbanization and technology absorption across the spectrum of oil and agricultural exporters and fragile and low-income states. Government debt ratios are down to an average 40 percent of output after relief awards, and capital investment and private credit are at the 20 percent bar. Food and fuel inflation peaked last year and area CPI is again under 10 percent. Budget deficits for energy importers are at 3 percent of GDP and banks outside Nigeria and South Africa have been “insulated” from crisis-related credit and capital flow reversal. According to recent estimates almost half the continent still lives in poverty defined at $1. 25 per day in 2005 prices, and it lags on meeting the mid-decade Millennium Development Goals. Further European trade and financial deterioration could knock 0. 5 percent off growth and sub-regional spillover would be particularly felt in the South African Customs Union and elsewhere. A petroleum price shock could reverberate to both the East and West alongside “homegrown” ethnic, political and climatic ones and exchange rate and monetary policy must be prepared to quickly respond, the Fund believes. From a regulatory standpoint, 15 countries received overall passing grades on Basel Core Principle assessments but cross-border banking networks have expanded beyond oversight reach and are a “contagion channel. ” Since 2009 frontier markets have suffered portfolio outflows which as in Zambia’s case sparked a credit crunch when foreign investors exited local bonds. Nigeria alone experienced a full-fledged banking crash from a combination of domestic and overseas borrowing as 40 percent of the system was declared insolvent with NPLs at one-third the total. The central bank intervened to support institutions and sack management and a central asset-disposal agency was established which has issued bonds on its own behalf.
European groups account for 90 percent of BIS-reported liabilities, with a large affiliate presence by UK, French and Portuguese providers dating from the colonial era. They rely overwhelmingly on domestic retail deposits although project funding has been reduced under parent guidance. South Africa is an exception in depending on wholesale lines but they come from contractual savings pools at home. Capital, liquidity and profitability score well but stress in multi-country operations like Stanbic, Ecobank and Bank of Africa could spread in the absence of tighter disclosure and supervision as together they control one-third of deposits in a dozen locations for sweeping vistas.
Corporate Bonds’ Defiant Default Position
2012 June 3 by admin
Posted in: General Emerging Markets
At the same a Brazilian meatpacker postponed a repayment following formal default by an electricity distributor and Chinese authorities came to the rescue of a squeezed domestic issuer as property companies again experienced a spike in external yield, a Vietnamese bank indicated global bond durability with a debut two years after state shipbuilder Vinashin reneged on a syndicated loan and the sovereign rating was downgraded. The majority government-held Vietinbank raised $250 million in 5-year paper at a 8. 25 percent yield and competitors plan to follow with the scarcity of dollar funding onshore on continued high inflation and monetary policy swings. Loan-deposit ratios exceed 100 percent, and the central bank has resumed rate cutting to deliver 6 percent GDP growth. Inflation may halve to the 10 percent range and the trade deficit may shrink by the same magnitude to 5 percent of GDP. Equity investors have expressed enthusiasm for property rebound as the index remains a frontier standout after a terrible 2011. Officials predict only 3 percent currency depreciation and with aid, FDI and remittance inflows international reserves should improve 30 percent to almost $20 billion. The CEMBI spread has touched 400 basis points but primary activity has been untrammeled at a record $125 billion through May, overwhelmingly skewed toward Asia and Latin America and quasi-sovereign and top-notch borrowers. However with Kazakh bank BTA’s second and other Asian defaults such as Sino Forest the nominal total so far at over $6 billion surpasses all of 2011. The net ratings trend across industries and regions is toward downgrades, and big houses like ING have recently raised restructuring projections with $75 billion in bonds from 125 names trading at distressed 1000 point-plus levels. In a worst-case scenario the default rate could near 2009’s 14 percent, especially with extension of the 50 percent $100 billion cross-border loan drop recorded in the first quarter.
European institutions under debt and regulatory crunches have systematically retreated on a geographic and product line basis. New Asian and Latin American participants have moved into the void, but development banks are again preparing to offer emergency trade finance in response to small exporter requests. Leveraged loans have collapsed, and $175 billion in principal repayments come due by year-end. Spanish banks have reduced Americas exposure and sold off operations, with the private pension franchise now on the block. Chinese and Japanese groups have assumed export credit mandates but the former favor strategic state enterprises while the latter seek temporary margin pick-up over flat domestic portfolios. With the combination of pressures corporate bond secondary prices have flagged the past month and entering the summer lull advisers recommend that management consider selective buybacks to preserve parade formation.
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The BRICS’ Wobbly Wall Wreckage
2012 May 29 by admin
Posted in: General Emerging Markets
The BRICS club with new entrant South Africa headed into the first half close with declining GDP growth, fund flow and stock market numbers as the Eurozone and other external events combined with lingering domestic damage previously downplayed by global investors. Chinese equities are up slightly but low valuations, an increase in FII quotas, and reserve requirement cuts have not changed sentiment hinging on currency drift and output reduction to the 8 percent range. Bank lending is flat on softer exports and housing auto and steel demand and fiscal stimulus has shifted from open-ended infrastructure projects to targeted consumer energy-related focus and may embrace long-delayed tax reforms. Fixed-asset outlays are off the traditional torrid pace as the central government tries to sort out burden-sharing with indebted localities and decision-making is postponed until the scheduled October leadership reshuffle. In financial services negotiators agreed in the US Strategic and Economic Dialogue to 49 percent local broker and investment bank ownership as state giant ICBC soon after got Federal Reserve permission for a California acquisition. Institutions are following customers in the “go out” natural resource policy and for their own account to fill the trade credit gap left by European escape and offset anemic deposit growth at home diverted to wealth management products. They are looking across the strait with the re-election of Taiwanese President Ma who promised during the campaign to expand a commercial cooperation accord. Both sides are considering turning Pingan Island into a duty-free zone, but the President has been sidetracked by disputes within his party on beef imports, capital gains tax and power price rises.
Brazilian shares went negative early and are down almost 10 percent in dollar terms as the real fell to 2 per dollar as China’s commodity appetite wanes and the consumer comes under pressure from rising debt as the central bank has slashed the benchmark rate to 9 percent with hallowed guaranteed savings accounts likewise subject to diminished returns. This year’s GDP leap may not even match 2011’s 2. 7 percent and inflation expectations toward 5 percent are at the upper bound of the target on likely currency pass-through. Banks have been hammered by higher NPLs at 8 percent of the total, and state pressure to narrow margins and maintain lines to strategic industries in the run-up to the World Cup and Olympics extravaganzas. Loyalists to President Dilma have been placed at the helm of Petrobras and Vale, and Chevron executives under civil and criminal investigation for an oil spill have been ordered to surrender their passports as Workers Party members sympathetic to Argentina’s takeover call for greater official control. In Russia capital flight continues at $10 billion/month and in India exporters have been ordered to transfer proceeds as the rupee tumbles beneath 55/dollar after a ratings downgrade. South African rand depreciation has also been steep in its role as a liquid asset class proxy and sub-par growth in a class by itself at half the continent average.
The EBRD’s Muddling Through Muddle
2012 May 29 by admin
Posted in: Europe
The EBRD tapped a UK civil servant for the helm in a break with two decades of European continent executive domination as it assumed a “muddling through” scenario of uneven single-currency crisis mitigation with 3 percent member country average GDP growth this year. The Southeast with direct trade and banking ties to Greece will be weakest, while commodity exporters in the CIS will see a 5 percent uptick.
