There is no true
correlation
between
birthrates and death-rates.
birthrates and death-rates.
Sutherland - Birth Control- A Statement of Christian Doctrine against the Neo-Malthusians
, in _Edinburgh Medical
Journal_, September 1880, p. 229. ]
[Footnote 20: Ibid. , p. 234. ]
[Footnote 21: Charles S. Devas, _Political Economy_, 1901, p. 199. ]
[Footnote 22: _British Medical Journal_, July 23, 1921, p. 131. ]
[Footnote 23: Quoted in _Tablet_, November 5, 1921, p. 598. ]
[Footnote 24: Quoted from _America_, October 29, 1921, p. 31. ]
CHAPTER III
HIGH BIRTH-RATES NOT THE CAUSE OF HIGH DEATH-RATES
Section 1. POVERTY AS NOW EXISTING
The second contention of birth controllers is that a high birth-rate, by
increasing poverty, causes a high death-rate. In the first place, there is
no doubt that poverty, necessary features of which are mal-nutrition or
insufficient food and bad housing, is directly associated with a high
death-rate, although this view was once shown by the _Lancet_ to need
important qualifications.
"With respect to the greater mortality amongst the poor than the rich,
we have yet to learn that the only hope of lessening the death-rate
lies in diminishing the birth-rate. We have no _proof_ as yet that the
majority of the evils at present surrounding the poor are necessarily
attendant upon poverty. We have yet to see a poor population living in
dry, well-drained, well-ventilated houses, properly supplied with pure
water and the means of disposal of refuse. And we have yet to become
acquainted with a poor population spending their scant earnings
entirely, or in a very large proportion, upon the necessities of life;
for such is not the case when half the earnings of a family are thrown
away to provide adulterated alcoholic drinks for one member of it.
Until reforms such as these and others have been carried out, and the
poor are able and willing to conform to known physiological laws, it is
premature to speak of taking measures to lessen the birth-rate--a
proposal, be it said, which makes the humiliating confession of man's
defeat in the battle of life. " [25]
It will be seen that the qualifications practically remove the question
from dispute. [26] If the conditions of the poor were thus altered,
poverty, as it exists to-day, would of course disappear. As things are,
we find that a high death-rate is related to poverty, as is proved, for
example, by the death-rate from tuberculosis being four times greater in
slums than in the best residential quarters of a city.
The correct answer to the birth controllers is that a high birth-rate is
not the cause of a high death-rate, because high birth-rates, as shown
in the previous chapter, are not the cause of poverty, but vice versa.
Moreover, all the statistical evidence goes to prove that in this matter we
are right and that Malthusians are wrong.
Section 2. HIGH BIRTH-RATE NOT THE CAUSE OF HIGH DEATH-RATE: PROVED FROM
STATISTICS
In China, where there is said to be a birth-rate of over 50 per 1,000, and
where over 70 per cent. of infants are helped to die, the high death-rate
is due clearly to degraded social customs. In the slums of Great Britain
the high death-rate is also due to degraded social conditions. It is not
due to the birth-rate. Of this the proof is simple, (a) Among the French
Canadians, where the average family numbers about nine, this high
birth-rate is not associated with a high death-rate, but with the increase
of a thrifty, hard-working race. In Ontario the birth-rate went up from
21. 10 in 1910 to 24. 7 in 1911, and the death-rate _fell_ from 14 to 12. 6.
(b) Again, in 1911 the corrected birth-rate for Connaught was 45. 3 as
against a crude rate of 24. 7 for England and Wales; and in Connaught, where
there is no need for Societies for preventing Parents being Cruel to
their Children, the infant mortality rate [27] is very much lower than
in England, although the birth-rate is much higher and the poverty much
greater. In Bradford, a prosperous English town which pays particular
attention to its mothers and children, the infant mortality in 1917 was
132 per 1,000 and the birth-rate 13. 2. In Connaught, where there are no
maternity centres or other aids to survival, but on the contrary a great
dearth of the means of well-being, the infant mortality was only 50, whilst
the birth-rate was actually 45! [28] So untrue is it to say that a high
death-rate is due to a high birth-rate.
Section 3. A LOW BIRTH-RATE NO GUARANTEE OF A LOW DEATH-RATE
Again, birth controllers claim that a low birthrate leads to a low infant
mortality rate. Now, it is really a very extraordinary thing that, whatever
be the statement made by a Malthusian on the subject of birth-control, the
very opposite is found to be the truth. During the last quarter of last
century a _falling_ birth-rate in England was actually accompanied by a
_rising_ infant mortality rate! During 1918 in Ireland [29] the crude
birthrate was 19. 9, with an infant mortality rate of 86, whereas in England
and Wales [30] the crude birthrate was 17. 7 with an infant mortality rate
of 97, and in the northern boroughs the appalling rate of 120. In England
and Wales the lowest infant mortality rate was found to be in the southern
rural districts, where the rate was 63, but in Connaught the rate was 50. 5.
This means that in England a low birth-rate is associated with a high
infant mortality rate, whereas in Ireland a high birth-rate is associated
with a low infant mortality rate. [31] These cold figures prove that in
this matter at least the poorest Irish peasants are richer than the people
of England.
Section 4. VITAL STATISTICS OF FRANCE
The Malthusian claim that a low birth-rate leads to a low death-rate is
also disproved by the vital statistics of France.
"The death-rate of France has not declined at the same rate as the
birth-rate has, and, while the incidence of mortality in France was
equal to that of England in the middle of the seventies, the English
mortality is now only five-sevenths of the French. England thus
maintains a fair natural increase, although the birth-rate has declined
at an even faster pace than has been the case in France. . . .
"The French death-rate is higher than is the case with most of her
neighbours, and it can quite well be reduced. The reasons for her
fairly high mortality are not to be found in climatic conditions,
racial characteristics, or other unchangeable elements of nature, nor
even in her occupations, since some of the most industrial regions have
a low mortality. " [32]
I have tabulated certain vital statistics of twenty Departments of France.
The following table, covering two periods of five years in twenty
Departments, proves that _the death-rate was lower_ in the ten Departments
having the highest birth-rate in France than in the ten Departments having
the lowest birth-rate.
TABLE I
THE TEN DEPARTMENTS HAVING THE HIGHEST BIRTH-RATE FRANCE
1909-1913 1915-1919
Rates per 1,000 population Still- Rates per 1,000
births population
Departments. Living Deaths Natural per 1000 Births deaths
births increase births
Moselle 27. 6 16. 5 +11. 1 - 14. 7 15. 4
Finistère 27. 2 18. 1 +9. 1 4. 0 15. 9 18. 2
Pas-de-Calais 26. 8 17. 4 +9. 4 4. 2 - -
Morbihan 25. 7 17. 8 +7. 9 4. 4 15. 0 19. 0
Côtes-du-Nord 24. 5 20. 6 +3. 9 4. 2 14. 4 20. 0
Bas-Rhin. 24. 3 16. 2 +8. 0 - 13. 3 16. 1
Meurthe-et-
Moselle 23. 2 19. 2 +4. 0 4. 3 - -
Lozère 22. 6 17. 3 +5. 2 4. 2 12. 4 17. 5
Haut-Rhin. 22. 4 16. 0 +6. 4 - 10. 3 15. 4
Vosges 22. 0 18. 7 +3. 3 4. 7 - -
_Total Averages 24. 6 17. 7 +6. 8 4. 2 13. 7 17. 3_
THE TEN DEPARTMENTS HAVING THE LOWEST BIRTH-RATE IN FRANCE
Côte-d'Or. 15. 4 18. 2 -2. 8 3. 1 9. 9 20. 5
Allier. 15. 1 15. 7 -0. 6 3. 3 8. 4 18. 8
Gironde 15. 1 17. 3 -2. 2 4. 5 10. 1 21. 2
Haute-Garonne. 15. 1 20. 4 -5. 3 4. 0 9. 0 22. 5
Lot 15. 0 21. 0 -6. 0 4. 5 7. 5 20. 6
Nièvre 14. 9 17. 4 -2. 5 3. 2 8. 8 20. 0
Tarn-et-Garonne 14. 9 20. 1 -5. 1 4. 7 7. 9 20. 7
Yonne 14. 4 19. 1 -4. 7 3. 8 8. 9 22. 0
Lot-et-Garonne 13. 7 19. 1 -5. 4 4. 4 7. 4 20. 1
Gers 13. 2 19. 2 -6. 0 4. 1 6. 8 19. 8
_Total Averages 14. 6 18. 7 -4. 0 3. 9 8. 4 20. 6_
Moreover, the figures show that, prior to 1914, the Departments with the
lowest birth-rate were becoming _depopulated_. On the other hand, the
enormous fall in the birth-rate throughout the country from 1915 to 1919 is
a memorial, very noble, to the heroism of France in the Great War, and to
her 1,175,000 dead. Certain other facts should also be noted. In France the
regulations permit that, when a child has died before registration of the
birth, this may be recorded as a still-birth; and for that reason the
proportion of still-births _appears_ higher than in most other countries.
Malthusian claims are thus refuted by the vital statistics of France; but
it should be clearly understood that these figures do _not_ prove that the
reverse of the Malthusian theory is true, namely, that a high birth-rate
is the cause of a low death-rate.
There is no true correlation between
birthrates and death-rates.
Section 5. COEFFICIENTS OF CORRELATION
As birth controllers rely very much upon statistics, and as figures may
very easily mislead the unwary, it is necessary to point out that the
Malthusian contention that a high birth-rate is the cause of a high
death-rate is not only contrary to reason and to facts, but is also
contrary to the very figures which they quote. A high birth-rate is often
associated with a high death-rate, but a general or uniform correspondence
between birth-rates and death-rates has never been established by modern
statistical methods. To these methods brief reference may be made. A
coefficient of correlation is a number intended to indicate the degree of
similarity between two things, or the extent to which one moves with the
other. If this coefficient is unity, or 1, it indicates that the two things
are similar in all respects, while if it be zero, or 0, it indicates that
there is no resemblance between them. The study of correlation is a first
step to the study of causation, because, until we know to what extent two
things move together, it is useless to consider whether one causes the
movement of the other; but in itself a coefficient of correlation does not
necessarily indicate cause or result. Now in this country, between 1838 and
1912 the birth-rate and the death-rate show a correlation of . 84; but if
that period be split into two, the correlation from 1838 to 1876, when the
birth-rate was fluctuating, is _minus_ . 12, and in the period after 1876
the correlation is _plus_ . 92. This means that the whole of the positive
correlation is due to the falling of the death-rate, and that birthrates
and death-rates do not of necessity move together. [33]
After a careful examination of the vital statistics for France, Knud
Stouman concludes as follows:
"In France no clear correlation exists between the birth-rate and the
death-rate in the various Departments. The coefficient of correlation
between the birth-rate and the general death-rate by Departments
(1909-1913) was 0. 0692±0. 1067, and including Alsace and
Lorraine--0. 0212±0. 1054, indicating no correlation whatsoever. A
somewhat different and more interesting table is obtained when the
correlation is made with the mortality at each age class:
TABLE II
Under 1 year 0. 3647 ± 0. 0986
1-19 years 0. 4884 ± 0. 0816
20-39 years 0. 6228 ± 0. 0656
40-59 years 0. 5028 ± 0. 0801
60 years and over 0. 2577 ± 0. 1001
"A peculiar configuration is observed in these coefficients in that a
quite pronounced positive correlation exists at the central age
group, but disappears with some regularity towards both extremities
of life. If the mortality has any influence upon the natality this
cannot be in the form of replacement of lost infants and deceased old
people, therefore, as has frequently been suggested. That a high
death-rate at the child-bearing age should be conducive to increased
fertility is absurd, neither does it seem likely that a large number
of children should make the parents more liable to diseases which are
prevalent at this period of life. The reasons must, then, be looked
for in a common factor.
"Now the only disease of importance representing the same age-curve as
do the correlation coefficients is tuberculosis. This disease causes in
France 2 per cent. of the deaths under one year, 24 per cent. of the
deaths from 1 to 19 years of age, not less than 45 per cent. from 20 to
39, 18 per cent. at ages 40 to 59, and less than 2 per cent. at the
ages over 60. Will a high tuberculosis mortality, then, be conducive to
great fertility, or do we have to fear that a decrease of the natality
will be the result of energetic measures against tuberculosis? Hardly.
The death-rate may be reduced, then, without detrimental effects upon
the birth-rate.
"What can the factor be which influences both the tuberculosis
incidence and the birth-rate? We know that the prevalence of
tuberculosis is conditioned principally by poverty and ignorance of
hygiene. The Parisian statistics, as compiled by Dr. Bertillon and
recently by Professor L. Hersch, show a much higher birth-rate in the
poor wards than in the richer districts, and the high birth-rates may
be furnished largely by the poorer elements of the population. A
comfortable degree of wealth does not imply a low birth-rate, as is
abundantly shown elsewhere, and one of the important questions which
suggest themselves to the French statistician and sociologist is
evidently the following: How can the intellectual and economic standard
of the masses be raised without detriment to the natality?
"We believe that the time is opportune for solving this question. The
past half-century has been lived under the shadow of defeat and with a
sense of limitations, and of impotence against fate. This nightmare is
now thrown off, and, the doors to the world being open and development
free, the French people will learn that new initiative has its full
recompense and that a living and a useful activity can be found for all
the sons and daughters they may get. The habit of home-staying is
broken by the war, and new and great undertakings are developing in the
ruined north-east as well as in the sunny south. " [34]
[Footnote 25: _The Lancet_, 1879, vol. ii, p. 703. ]
[Footnote 26: Poverty is a term of wide import admitting many degrees
according as the victim is deprived more or less completely of the ordinary
necessities in the matters of food, clothing, housing, education, and
recreation. As used by Malthusians and spoken of here it means persistent
lack of one or more of these necessary requisites for decent living. Vide
Parkinson, _Primer of Social Science_ (1918), pp. 225 sqq. ]
[Footnote 27: The infant mortality rate is the number of deaths of infants
under one year old per 1,000 births in the same year. ]
[Footnote 28: See Saleeby, _The Factors of Infant Mortality_, edited by
Cory Bigger. _Report on the Physical Welfare of Mothers and Children_, vol.
iv, Ireland (Carnegie U. K. Trust), 1918. ]
[Footnote 29: _Fifty-fifth Annual Report of the Registrar-General for
Ireland, containing a General Abstract of the Numbers of Marriages, Births,
and Deaths_, 1918, pp. x, xxix, and 24. ]
[Footnote 30: _Eighty-first Annual Report of the Registrar-General of
Births, Deaths, and Marriages in England and Wales_, 1918, pp. xxiv, xxxii,
and xxxv. ]
[Footnote 31: This is also the emphatic testimony of Sir Arthur Newsholme,
in his _Report of Child Mortality_, issued in connection with the
_Forty-fifth Annual Report of the Local Government Board_ (dated 191? ), PP.
77-8. ]
[Footnote 32: Knud Stouman, "The Repopulation of France," _International
Journal of Public Health_, vol. ii, no. 4, p. 421. ]
[Footnote 33: Dr. Major Greenwood. Vide _The Declining Birth-rate_, 1916,
p. 130. ]
[Footnote 34: _International Journal of Public Health_, vol. ii, no. 4, p.
423. ]
CHAPTER IV
HOW RELIGION AFFECTS THE BIRTHRATE
Section 1. FRENCH STATISTICS MISINTERPRETED BY MALTHUSIANS
The fact that Malthusians are in the habit of citing the birth-rate in
certain Catholic countries as a point in favour of their propaganda is
only another instance of their maladroit use of figures: because for that
argument there is not the slightest justification. The following paragraph
from a recent speech [35] in the Anglican Church Congress by Lord Dawson,
Physician to the King, is a good example of their methods in controversy:
"Despite the influence and condemnations of the Church, it (artificial
birth control) has been practised in France for well over half a
century, and in Belgium and other Catholic countries is extending. And
if the Roman Catholic Church, with its compact organisation, its power
of authority, and its discipline, cannot check this procedure, is it
likely that Protestant Churches will be able to do so? For Protestant
religions depend for their strength on _the conviction and esteem they
establish in the heads and hearts of their people_. "
I have italicised the closing words because it would be interesting to
know, in passing, whether anyone denies that these human influences also
contribute to the strength of the Catholic Church. Among recent converts to
the Faith in this country are many Protestant clergymen who may be presumed
to have known what claims "on their conviction and esteem" their communion
had. Moreover, in France, amongst recent converts are some of the great
intellects of that country. If it be not "conviction and esteem" in their
"heads and hearts," what other motive, I ask, has induced Huysmans, Barrés,
and others to make submission to Rome?
Secondly, it is true that for over half a century the birth-rate of France
has been falling, and that to some extent this decline is due to the use of
contraceptives; but it is also true that during the past fifty years the
Government of France has made a determined but unsuccessful effort to
overthrow the Catholic Church; and that it is in so far as the Government
has weakened Catholic influence and impeded Catholic teaching that the
birth-rate has fallen. The belief of a nation will not influence its
destiny unless that belief is reflected in the actions of the citizens.
Father Herbert Thurston, S. J. , [36] thus deals with the argument implied:
"Catholicism which is merely Catholicism in name, and which amounts to
no more in the supposed believer than a vague purpose of sending for a
priest when he is dying, is not likely to have any restraining effect
upon the decline of the birth-rate. Further, it is precisely because a
really practical Catholicism lays such restrictions upon freedom in
this and in other matters, that members of the educated and comfortable
classes, the men especially, are prone to emancipate themselves from
all religious control with an anti-clerical rancour hardly known in
Protestant lands. Had it not been for these defections from her
teaching, the Catholic Church, in most countries of mixed religion,
would soon become predominant by the mere force of natural fertility.
Even as it is, we believe that a country like France owes such small
measure of natural increase as she still retains almost entirely to the
religious principle of the faithful few. Where the Catholic Church
preserves her sway over the hearts of men the maintenance of a vigorous
stock is assured. "
In the first place, it is noteworthy that the birth-rate varies with
practical Catholicism in France, being much higher in those Departments
where the Church is more flourishing. As was shown by Professor Meyrick
Booth in 1914, there are certain districts of France where the birth-rate
is _higher_ than in the usual English country districts. For example, the
birth-rate in Finistère was 27. 1, in Pas-de-Calais 26. 6, and in Morbihan
25. 8. On the other hand, in many Departments the birth-rate was lower
than the death-rate. This occurred, for example, in Lot, Haute Garonne,
Tarn-et-Garonne, Lot-et-Garonne, and in Gers. In the two last-named
Departments the birth-rates were 13. 6 and 13. 0 respectively.
In the following table I have tabulated more recent figures concerning the
vital statistics in these two groups of Departments, and rates for the
two periods of five years, 1909-1913, and 1915-1919, in each group are
compared.
It will be noted that in the three Departments, where practical Catholicism
is most flourishing,
TABLE III
1909-1913. 1915-1919.
Departments. Rates per 1000 Still- Deaths Rates per 1000
population Births under population
per 1 year
Living Deaths National 1000 per Births Deaths
Births Increase Births 1000
living
births
Finistère. 27. 2 18. 1 +9. 1 4. 0 116. 7 15. 9 18. 2
Pas-de-Calais 26. 8 17. 4 +9. 4 4. 2 135. 3 -- --
Morbihan. 25. 7 17. 8 +7. 9 4. 4 113. 7 15. 0 19. 0
_Total Averages. 26. 5 17. 7 +8. 8 4. 2 121. 9 15. 4 18. 6_
Lot. 15. 0 21. 0 -6. 0 4. 5 148. 0 7. 5 20. 6
Haute Garonne. 15. 1 20. 4 -5. 3 4. 0 121. 3 9. 0 22. 5
Tarn-et-Garonne 14. 9 20. 1 -5. 1 4. 7 134. 7 7. 9 20. 7
Lot-et-Garonne. 13. 7 19. 1 -5. 4 4. 4 112. 0 7. 4 20. 1
Gers. 13. 2 19. 2 -6. 0 4. 1 102. 4 6. 8 19. 8
_Total Averages. 14. 3 19. 9 -5. 5 4. 3 123. 6 7. 7 20. 7_
there is a high birth-rate, and moreover that in these Departments both
the death-rate and the infant mortality rate is _lower_ than in the five
Departments with the lowest birth-rate.
Professor Meyrick Booth's comments are as follows:
"The above five departments (in which the decline of population has
been most marked) are adjacent to one another in the fertile valley of
the Garonne, one of the wealthiest parts of France; and we may well
ask: Why should the birth-rate under such favourable conditions be less
than half that which is noted for the bleak district of Finistère? The
noted statistician, M. Leroy-Beaulieu, has some interesting
observations to offer upon this paradoxical state of things.
Considering the country in general, and these districts in particular,
he notes that the most prolific parts of France are those in which the
people have retained their allegiance to the traditional Church (in the
case of the Pas-de-Calais we have a certain degree of adherence to the
orthodox faith combined with the presence of a large mining
population). M. Leroy-Beaulieu expresses the opinion that the Catholic
Church tends, by means of its whole atmosphere, to promote a general
increase of population; for, more than other types of Christianity, it
condemns egoism, materialism, and inordinate ambition for self or
family; and, moreover, it works in the same direction through its
uncompromising condemnation of modern Malthusian practices.
Journal_, September 1880, p. 229. ]
[Footnote 20: Ibid. , p. 234. ]
[Footnote 21: Charles S. Devas, _Political Economy_, 1901, p. 199. ]
[Footnote 22: _British Medical Journal_, July 23, 1921, p. 131. ]
[Footnote 23: Quoted in _Tablet_, November 5, 1921, p. 598. ]
[Footnote 24: Quoted from _America_, October 29, 1921, p. 31. ]
CHAPTER III
HIGH BIRTH-RATES NOT THE CAUSE OF HIGH DEATH-RATES
Section 1. POVERTY AS NOW EXISTING
The second contention of birth controllers is that a high birth-rate, by
increasing poverty, causes a high death-rate. In the first place, there is
no doubt that poverty, necessary features of which are mal-nutrition or
insufficient food and bad housing, is directly associated with a high
death-rate, although this view was once shown by the _Lancet_ to need
important qualifications.
"With respect to the greater mortality amongst the poor than the rich,
we have yet to learn that the only hope of lessening the death-rate
lies in diminishing the birth-rate. We have no _proof_ as yet that the
majority of the evils at present surrounding the poor are necessarily
attendant upon poverty. We have yet to see a poor population living in
dry, well-drained, well-ventilated houses, properly supplied with pure
water and the means of disposal of refuse. And we have yet to become
acquainted with a poor population spending their scant earnings
entirely, or in a very large proportion, upon the necessities of life;
for such is not the case when half the earnings of a family are thrown
away to provide adulterated alcoholic drinks for one member of it.
Until reforms such as these and others have been carried out, and the
poor are able and willing to conform to known physiological laws, it is
premature to speak of taking measures to lessen the birth-rate--a
proposal, be it said, which makes the humiliating confession of man's
defeat in the battle of life. " [25]
It will be seen that the qualifications practically remove the question
from dispute. [26] If the conditions of the poor were thus altered,
poverty, as it exists to-day, would of course disappear. As things are,
we find that a high death-rate is related to poverty, as is proved, for
example, by the death-rate from tuberculosis being four times greater in
slums than in the best residential quarters of a city.
The correct answer to the birth controllers is that a high birth-rate is
not the cause of a high death-rate, because high birth-rates, as shown
in the previous chapter, are not the cause of poverty, but vice versa.
Moreover, all the statistical evidence goes to prove that in this matter we
are right and that Malthusians are wrong.
Section 2. HIGH BIRTH-RATE NOT THE CAUSE OF HIGH DEATH-RATE: PROVED FROM
STATISTICS
In China, where there is said to be a birth-rate of over 50 per 1,000, and
where over 70 per cent. of infants are helped to die, the high death-rate
is due clearly to degraded social customs. In the slums of Great Britain
the high death-rate is also due to degraded social conditions. It is not
due to the birth-rate. Of this the proof is simple, (a) Among the French
Canadians, where the average family numbers about nine, this high
birth-rate is not associated with a high death-rate, but with the increase
of a thrifty, hard-working race. In Ontario the birth-rate went up from
21. 10 in 1910 to 24. 7 in 1911, and the death-rate _fell_ from 14 to 12. 6.
(b) Again, in 1911 the corrected birth-rate for Connaught was 45. 3 as
against a crude rate of 24. 7 for England and Wales; and in Connaught, where
there is no need for Societies for preventing Parents being Cruel to
their Children, the infant mortality rate [27] is very much lower than
in England, although the birth-rate is much higher and the poverty much
greater. In Bradford, a prosperous English town which pays particular
attention to its mothers and children, the infant mortality in 1917 was
132 per 1,000 and the birth-rate 13. 2. In Connaught, where there are no
maternity centres or other aids to survival, but on the contrary a great
dearth of the means of well-being, the infant mortality was only 50, whilst
the birth-rate was actually 45! [28] So untrue is it to say that a high
death-rate is due to a high birth-rate.
Section 3. A LOW BIRTH-RATE NO GUARANTEE OF A LOW DEATH-RATE
Again, birth controllers claim that a low birthrate leads to a low infant
mortality rate. Now, it is really a very extraordinary thing that, whatever
be the statement made by a Malthusian on the subject of birth-control, the
very opposite is found to be the truth. During the last quarter of last
century a _falling_ birth-rate in England was actually accompanied by a
_rising_ infant mortality rate! During 1918 in Ireland [29] the crude
birthrate was 19. 9, with an infant mortality rate of 86, whereas in England
and Wales [30] the crude birthrate was 17. 7 with an infant mortality rate
of 97, and in the northern boroughs the appalling rate of 120. In England
and Wales the lowest infant mortality rate was found to be in the southern
rural districts, where the rate was 63, but in Connaught the rate was 50. 5.
This means that in England a low birth-rate is associated with a high
infant mortality rate, whereas in Ireland a high birth-rate is associated
with a low infant mortality rate. [31] These cold figures prove that in
this matter at least the poorest Irish peasants are richer than the people
of England.
Section 4. VITAL STATISTICS OF FRANCE
The Malthusian claim that a low birth-rate leads to a low death-rate is
also disproved by the vital statistics of France.
"The death-rate of France has not declined at the same rate as the
birth-rate has, and, while the incidence of mortality in France was
equal to that of England in the middle of the seventies, the English
mortality is now only five-sevenths of the French. England thus
maintains a fair natural increase, although the birth-rate has declined
at an even faster pace than has been the case in France. . . .
"The French death-rate is higher than is the case with most of her
neighbours, and it can quite well be reduced. The reasons for her
fairly high mortality are not to be found in climatic conditions,
racial characteristics, or other unchangeable elements of nature, nor
even in her occupations, since some of the most industrial regions have
a low mortality. " [32]
I have tabulated certain vital statistics of twenty Departments of France.
The following table, covering two periods of five years in twenty
Departments, proves that _the death-rate was lower_ in the ten Departments
having the highest birth-rate in France than in the ten Departments having
the lowest birth-rate.
TABLE I
THE TEN DEPARTMENTS HAVING THE HIGHEST BIRTH-RATE FRANCE
1909-1913 1915-1919
Rates per 1,000 population Still- Rates per 1,000
births population
Departments. Living Deaths Natural per 1000 Births deaths
births increase births
Moselle 27. 6 16. 5 +11. 1 - 14. 7 15. 4
Finistère 27. 2 18. 1 +9. 1 4. 0 15. 9 18. 2
Pas-de-Calais 26. 8 17. 4 +9. 4 4. 2 - -
Morbihan 25. 7 17. 8 +7. 9 4. 4 15. 0 19. 0
Côtes-du-Nord 24. 5 20. 6 +3. 9 4. 2 14. 4 20. 0
Bas-Rhin. 24. 3 16. 2 +8. 0 - 13. 3 16. 1
Meurthe-et-
Moselle 23. 2 19. 2 +4. 0 4. 3 - -
Lozère 22. 6 17. 3 +5. 2 4. 2 12. 4 17. 5
Haut-Rhin. 22. 4 16. 0 +6. 4 - 10. 3 15. 4
Vosges 22. 0 18. 7 +3. 3 4. 7 - -
_Total Averages 24. 6 17. 7 +6. 8 4. 2 13. 7 17. 3_
THE TEN DEPARTMENTS HAVING THE LOWEST BIRTH-RATE IN FRANCE
Côte-d'Or. 15. 4 18. 2 -2. 8 3. 1 9. 9 20. 5
Allier. 15. 1 15. 7 -0. 6 3. 3 8. 4 18. 8
Gironde 15. 1 17. 3 -2. 2 4. 5 10. 1 21. 2
Haute-Garonne. 15. 1 20. 4 -5. 3 4. 0 9. 0 22. 5
Lot 15. 0 21. 0 -6. 0 4. 5 7. 5 20. 6
Nièvre 14. 9 17. 4 -2. 5 3. 2 8. 8 20. 0
Tarn-et-Garonne 14. 9 20. 1 -5. 1 4. 7 7. 9 20. 7
Yonne 14. 4 19. 1 -4. 7 3. 8 8. 9 22. 0
Lot-et-Garonne 13. 7 19. 1 -5. 4 4. 4 7. 4 20. 1
Gers 13. 2 19. 2 -6. 0 4. 1 6. 8 19. 8
_Total Averages 14. 6 18. 7 -4. 0 3. 9 8. 4 20. 6_
Moreover, the figures show that, prior to 1914, the Departments with the
lowest birth-rate were becoming _depopulated_. On the other hand, the
enormous fall in the birth-rate throughout the country from 1915 to 1919 is
a memorial, very noble, to the heroism of France in the Great War, and to
her 1,175,000 dead. Certain other facts should also be noted. In France the
regulations permit that, when a child has died before registration of the
birth, this may be recorded as a still-birth; and for that reason the
proportion of still-births _appears_ higher than in most other countries.
Malthusian claims are thus refuted by the vital statistics of France; but
it should be clearly understood that these figures do _not_ prove that the
reverse of the Malthusian theory is true, namely, that a high birth-rate
is the cause of a low death-rate.
There is no true correlation between
birthrates and death-rates.
Section 5. COEFFICIENTS OF CORRELATION
As birth controllers rely very much upon statistics, and as figures may
very easily mislead the unwary, it is necessary to point out that the
Malthusian contention that a high birth-rate is the cause of a high
death-rate is not only contrary to reason and to facts, but is also
contrary to the very figures which they quote. A high birth-rate is often
associated with a high death-rate, but a general or uniform correspondence
between birth-rates and death-rates has never been established by modern
statistical methods. To these methods brief reference may be made. A
coefficient of correlation is a number intended to indicate the degree of
similarity between two things, or the extent to which one moves with the
other. If this coefficient is unity, or 1, it indicates that the two things
are similar in all respects, while if it be zero, or 0, it indicates that
there is no resemblance between them. The study of correlation is a first
step to the study of causation, because, until we know to what extent two
things move together, it is useless to consider whether one causes the
movement of the other; but in itself a coefficient of correlation does not
necessarily indicate cause or result. Now in this country, between 1838 and
1912 the birth-rate and the death-rate show a correlation of . 84; but if
that period be split into two, the correlation from 1838 to 1876, when the
birth-rate was fluctuating, is _minus_ . 12, and in the period after 1876
the correlation is _plus_ . 92. This means that the whole of the positive
correlation is due to the falling of the death-rate, and that birthrates
and death-rates do not of necessity move together. [33]
After a careful examination of the vital statistics for France, Knud
Stouman concludes as follows:
"In France no clear correlation exists between the birth-rate and the
death-rate in the various Departments. The coefficient of correlation
between the birth-rate and the general death-rate by Departments
(1909-1913) was 0. 0692±0. 1067, and including Alsace and
Lorraine--0. 0212±0. 1054, indicating no correlation whatsoever. A
somewhat different and more interesting table is obtained when the
correlation is made with the mortality at each age class:
TABLE II
Under 1 year 0. 3647 ± 0. 0986
1-19 years 0. 4884 ± 0. 0816
20-39 years 0. 6228 ± 0. 0656
40-59 years 0. 5028 ± 0. 0801
60 years and over 0. 2577 ± 0. 1001
"A peculiar configuration is observed in these coefficients in that a
quite pronounced positive correlation exists at the central age
group, but disappears with some regularity towards both extremities
of life. If the mortality has any influence upon the natality this
cannot be in the form of replacement of lost infants and deceased old
people, therefore, as has frequently been suggested. That a high
death-rate at the child-bearing age should be conducive to increased
fertility is absurd, neither does it seem likely that a large number
of children should make the parents more liable to diseases which are
prevalent at this period of life. The reasons must, then, be looked
for in a common factor.
"Now the only disease of importance representing the same age-curve as
do the correlation coefficients is tuberculosis. This disease causes in
France 2 per cent. of the deaths under one year, 24 per cent. of the
deaths from 1 to 19 years of age, not less than 45 per cent. from 20 to
39, 18 per cent. at ages 40 to 59, and less than 2 per cent. at the
ages over 60. Will a high tuberculosis mortality, then, be conducive to
great fertility, or do we have to fear that a decrease of the natality
will be the result of energetic measures against tuberculosis? Hardly.
The death-rate may be reduced, then, without detrimental effects upon
the birth-rate.
"What can the factor be which influences both the tuberculosis
incidence and the birth-rate? We know that the prevalence of
tuberculosis is conditioned principally by poverty and ignorance of
hygiene. The Parisian statistics, as compiled by Dr. Bertillon and
recently by Professor L. Hersch, show a much higher birth-rate in the
poor wards than in the richer districts, and the high birth-rates may
be furnished largely by the poorer elements of the population. A
comfortable degree of wealth does not imply a low birth-rate, as is
abundantly shown elsewhere, and one of the important questions which
suggest themselves to the French statistician and sociologist is
evidently the following: How can the intellectual and economic standard
of the masses be raised without detriment to the natality?
"We believe that the time is opportune for solving this question. The
past half-century has been lived under the shadow of defeat and with a
sense of limitations, and of impotence against fate. This nightmare is
now thrown off, and, the doors to the world being open and development
free, the French people will learn that new initiative has its full
recompense and that a living and a useful activity can be found for all
the sons and daughters they may get. The habit of home-staying is
broken by the war, and new and great undertakings are developing in the
ruined north-east as well as in the sunny south. " [34]
[Footnote 25: _The Lancet_, 1879, vol. ii, p. 703. ]
[Footnote 26: Poverty is a term of wide import admitting many degrees
according as the victim is deprived more or less completely of the ordinary
necessities in the matters of food, clothing, housing, education, and
recreation. As used by Malthusians and spoken of here it means persistent
lack of one or more of these necessary requisites for decent living. Vide
Parkinson, _Primer of Social Science_ (1918), pp. 225 sqq. ]
[Footnote 27: The infant mortality rate is the number of deaths of infants
under one year old per 1,000 births in the same year. ]
[Footnote 28: See Saleeby, _The Factors of Infant Mortality_, edited by
Cory Bigger. _Report on the Physical Welfare of Mothers and Children_, vol.
iv, Ireland (Carnegie U. K. Trust), 1918. ]
[Footnote 29: _Fifty-fifth Annual Report of the Registrar-General for
Ireland, containing a General Abstract of the Numbers of Marriages, Births,
and Deaths_, 1918, pp. x, xxix, and 24. ]
[Footnote 30: _Eighty-first Annual Report of the Registrar-General of
Births, Deaths, and Marriages in England and Wales_, 1918, pp. xxiv, xxxii,
and xxxv. ]
[Footnote 31: This is also the emphatic testimony of Sir Arthur Newsholme,
in his _Report of Child Mortality_, issued in connection with the
_Forty-fifth Annual Report of the Local Government Board_ (dated 191? ), PP.
77-8. ]
[Footnote 32: Knud Stouman, "The Repopulation of France," _International
Journal of Public Health_, vol. ii, no. 4, p. 421. ]
[Footnote 33: Dr. Major Greenwood. Vide _The Declining Birth-rate_, 1916,
p. 130. ]
[Footnote 34: _International Journal of Public Health_, vol. ii, no. 4, p.
423. ]
CHAPTER IV
HOW RELIGION AFFECTS THE BIRTHRATE
Section 1. FRENCH STATISTICS MISINTERPRETED BY MALTHUSIANS
The fact that Malthusians are in the habit of citing the birth-rate in
certain Catholic countries as a point in favour of their propaganda is
only another instance of their maladroit use of figures: because for that
argument there is not the slightest justification. The following paragraph
from a recent speech [35] in the Anglican Church Congress by Lord Dawson,
Physician to the King, is a good example of their methods in controversy:
"Despite the influence and condemnations of the Church, it (artificial
birth control) has been practised in France for well over half a
century, and in Belgium and other Catholic countries is extending. And
if the Roman Catholic Church, with its compact organisation, its power
of authority, and its discipline, cannot check this procedure, is it
likely that Protestant Churches will be able to do so? For Protestant
religions depend for their strength on _the conviction and esteem they
establish in the heads and hearts of their people_. "
I have italicised the closing words because it would be interesting to
know, in passing, whether anyone denies that these human influences also
contribute to the strength of the Catholic Church. Among recent converts to
the Faith in this country are many Protestant clergymen who may be presumed
to have known what claims "on their conviction and esteem" their communion
had. Moreover, in France, amongst recent converts are some of the great
intellects of that country. If it be not "conviction and esteem" in their
"heads and hearts," what other motive, I ask, has induced Huysmans, Barrés,
and others to make submission to Rome?
Secondly, it is true that for over half a century the birth-rate of France
has been falling, and that to some extent this decline is due to the use of
contraceptives; but it is also true that during the past fifty years the
Government of France has made a determined but unsuccessful effort to
overthrow the Catholic Church; and that it is in so far as the Government
has weakened Catholic influence and impeded Catholic teaching that the
birth-rate has fallen. The belief of a nation will not influence its
destiny unless that belief is reflected in the actions of the citizens.
Father Herbert Thurston, S. J. , [36] thus deals with the argument implied:
"Catholicism which is merely Catholicism in name, and which amounts to
no more in the supposed believer than a vague purpose of sending for a
priest when he is dying, is not likely to have any restraining effect
upon the decline of the birth-rate. Further, it is precisely because a
really practical Catholicism lays such restrictions upon freedom in
this and in other matters, that members of the educated and comfortable
classes, the men especially, are prone to emancipate themselves from
all religious control with an anti-clerical rancour hardly known in
Protestant lands. Had it not been for these defections from her
teaching, the Catholic Church, in most countries of mixed religion,
would soon become predominant by the mere force of natural fertility.
Even as it is, we believe that a country like France owes such small
measure of natural increase as she still retains almost entirely to the
religious principle of the faithful few. Where the Catholic Church
preserves her sway over the hearts of men the maintenance of a vigorous
stock is assured. "
In the first place, it is noteworthy that the birth-rate varies with
practical Catholicism in France, being much higher in those Departments
where the Church is more flourishing. As was shown by Professor Meyrick
Booth in 1914, there are certain districts of France where the birth-rate
is _higher_ than in the usual English country districts. For example, the
birth-rate in Finistère was 27. 1, in Pas-de-Calais 26. 6, and in Morbihan
25. 8. On the other hand, in many Departments the birth-rate was lower
than the death-rate. This occurred, for example, in Lot, Haute Garonne,
Tarn-et-Garonne, Lot-et-Garonne, and in Gers. In the two last-named
Departments the birth-rates were 13. 6 and 13. 0 respectively.
In the following table I have tabulated more recent figures concerning the
vital statistics in these two groups of Departments, and rates for the
two periods of five years, 1909-1913, and 1915-1919, in each group are
compared.
It will be noted that in the three Departments, where practical Catholicism
is most flourishing,
TABLE III
1909-1913. 1915-1919.
Departments. Rates per 1000 Still- Deaths Rates per 1000
population Births under population
per 1 year
Living Deaths National 1000 per Births Deaths
Births Increase Births 1000
living
births
Finistère. 27. 2 18. 1 +9. 1 4. 0 116. 7 15. 9 18. 2
Pas-de-Calais 26. 8 17. 4 +9. 4 4. 2 135. 3 -- --
Morbihan. 25. 7 17. 8 +7. 9 4. 4 113. 7 15. 0 19. 0
_Total Averages. 26. 5 17. 7 +8. 8 4. 2 121. 9 15. 4 18. 6_
Lot. 15. 0 21. 0 -6. 0 4. 5 148. 0 7. 5 20. 6
Haute Garonne. 15. 1 20. 4 -5. 3 4. 0 121. 3 9. 0 22. 5
Tarn-et-Garonne 14. 9 20. 1 -5. 1 4. 7 134. 7 7. 9 20. 7
Lot-et-Garonne. 13. 7 19. 1 -5. 4 4. 4 112. 0 7. 4 20. 1
Gers. 13. 2 19. 2 -6. 0 4. 1 102. 4 6. 8 19. 8
_Total Averages. 14. 3 19. 9 -5. 5 4. 3 123. 6 7. 7 20. 7_
there is a high birth-rate, and moreover that in these Departments both
the death-rate and the infant mortality rate is _lower_ than in the five
Departments with the lowest birth-rate.
Professor Meyrick Booth's comments are as follows:
"The above five departments (in which the decline of population has
been most marked) are adjacent to one another in the fertile valley of
the Garonne, one of the wealthiest parts of France; and we may well
ask: Why should the birth-rate under such favourable conditions be less
than half that which is noted for the bleak district of Finistère? The
noted statistician, M. Leroy-Beaulieu, has some interesting
observations to offer upon this paradoxical state of things.
Considering the country in general, and these districts in particular,
he notes that the most prolific parts of France are those in which the
people have retained their allegiance to the traditional Church (in the
case of the Pas-de-Calais we have a certain degree of adherence to the
orthodox faith combined with the presence of a large mining
population). M. Leroy-Beaulieu expresses the opinion that the Catholic
Church tends, by means of its whole atmosphere, to promote a general
increase of population; for, more than other types of Christianity, it
condemns egoism, materialism, and inordinate ambition for self or
family; and, moreover, it works in the same direction through its
uncompromising condemnation of modern Malthusian practices.
